Connect with us

Business

Paul Black’s 3 thumb rules for identifying great wealth creators

Published

on

Paul Black’s 3 thumb rules for identifying great wealth creators
Successful long-term investing is not simply about finding stocks that are growing rapidly. The bigger challenge is identifying businesses whose competitive advantages can strengthen over many years and whose organisational culture supports that advantage.

Paul Black, veteran portfolio manager, believes investors should focus on companies with strong growth prospects, widening competitive moats and cultures that reinforce their strengths. His investment philosophy offers three important rules for identifying potential long-term wealth creators.

1. Look for a competitive moat that is getting stronger

Black’s first principle is to focus not merely on whether a company has a competitive advantage, but on the direction in which that advantage is moving.

Advertisement

A business may have a strong moat today, but that does not necessarily mean it will remain protected five or 10 years from now. Investors should therefore assess whether the company’s competitive position is strengthening or weakening.

Businesses that continually widen their moat can become increasingly difficult for competitors to challenge. This can allow them to sustain growth and generate superior returns over long periods.


For investors, the key question is not simply whether a company is good today, but whether its competitive advantage is likely to become stronger over the next five, 10 or even 15 years.

2. Give corporate culture a high premium

The second rule is to examine the culture of a business and determine whether it is aligned with its competitive advantage.Black believes a company’s values, employee behaviour and management philosophy can play a crucial role in determining whether its moat continues to expand. A strong competitive position becomes more durable when the organisation’s culture encourages decisions and behaviours that reinforce it.

Investors therefore need to look beyond management presentations and financial statements. Understanding the culture can involve speaking with former employees, suppliers, vendors and even competitors. Such conversations can help investors build a broader picture of how a company operates.

Advertisement

This qualitative assessment is difficult to capture in a spreadsheet, but it can provide an important edge when evaluating businesses for the long term.

3. Focus on the direction of ROIC, not just its level

Another important indicator Black highlights is Return on Invested Capital, or ROIC.

A high ROIC is generally viewed as a sign of an efficient and profitable business. However, Black places greater emphasis on the direction of ROIC rather than simply its absolute level.

A company whose ROIC is steadily improving could indicate that its competitive advantage is strengthening and that management is becoming increasingly efficient at deploying capital.

Advertisement

Conversely, a business with a high ROIC that stops improving may not have the same long-term potential as a company whose returns on capital are consistently rising.

Think differently from the market

Black also believes investors need to develop an information advantage. Simply spending most of one’s time building financial models and valuation spreadsheets may not provide a meaningful edge because thousands of analysts are doing similar work.

Instead, investors can focus on areas that are harder to quantify, such as corporate culture, competitive behaviour, customer relationships and the sustainability of a company’s moat.

This approach can help investors identify developments before they become obvious in conventional financial metrics.

Advertisement

Give great businesses time to compound

One of the central ideas in Black’s philosophy is the importance of patience.

Once investors identify businesses with strong cultures and expanding competitive advantages, frequently buying and selling them may undermine the benefits of long-term compounding. Great wealth creators can require years for their competitive advantages, earnings and cash flows to compound.

Black’s framework therefore encourages investors to think in five-, 10- and 15-year periods rather than focusing excessively on short-term market movements.

Manage risk by owning stronger businesses

Black’s approach to downside protection is also linked to competitive advantage. Companies with strong balance sheets, resilient businesses and expanding moats may be better positioned during difficult economic periods.

Advertisement

When weaker competitors face financial constraints, stronger companies can potentially use their financial strength to invest, gain market share or strengthen their competitive position.

For long-term investors, therefore, risk management does not necessarily mean avoiding volatility. It can also mean owning businesses that are structurally better equipped to withstand difficult periods.

Ignore the market noise

Black’s philosophy ultimately comes down to maintaining a long-term perspective.

Constant market commentary can encourage investors to focus on three- or six-month outcomes instead of the much longer periods required for business fundamentals to play out. Investors who understand a company’s competitive advantage may therefore benefit from avoiding unnecessary reactions to short-term market noise.

Advertisement

The broader lesson from Black’s framework is that great wealth creators are not necessarily the cheapest stocks or the fastest-growing companies. They are businesses whose competitive advantages can widen, whose cultures reinforce those advantages and whose returns on capital improve over time.

For investors searching for long-term compounders, identifying these characteristics may be more valuable than simply looking for a low valuation or a high near-term growth rate.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

Mutinous soldiers attack airport, presidency in Niger capital, sources say

Published

on


Mutinous soldiers attack airport, presidency in Niger capital, sources say

Continue Reading

Business

Guildford barber offers free back-to-school haircuts

Published

on

A man in a white floral shirt standing in front of a barber shop. He is pointing at the sign.

A barber is offering free back-to-school haircuts, stationery and school essentials to help families facing rising costs.

Sid Gumbrell, who runs Clean Cuts Barber Shop, in Guildford in Surrey, is hosting the event from 09:00 BST to 17:00 on Sunday.

Children will also be able to pick up free stationery, pencil cases and water bottles.

“To be honest, I know the struggles with the cost of things at the moment,” Mr Gumbrell said. “School uniforms, shoes, haircuts, etc, it all adds up and if we can just help take one cost away it’s a massive deal for us.”

Advertisement

He said the event was aimed at bringing children together while helping families with the cost of living.

The day is being supported by Tesco and Krispy Kreme, which have donated towards the event.

Follow BBC Surrey on Facebook, external, X, external, and Instagram, external and listen to BBC Radio Surrey on Sounds. Send your story ideas to southeasttoday@bbc.co.uk , externalor WhatsApp us on 08081 002250.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Goodyear burning rubber and cash as turnaround plan continues

Published

on

Goodyear burning rubber and cash as turnaround plan continues

The exterior of Goodyear’s “Motor City Garage” concept retail store inside one of the tire manufacturer’s Detroit tire shops.

Courtesy Goodyear

DETROIT — Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. CEO Mark Stewart sits in the vehicle bay of a tire shop where the company is launching a new retail experience for customers.

Advertisement

There’s a freshly painted black facade on the revamped Detroit store, with the words “Motor City” added in white flanking Goodyear’s winged foot logo. It’s been dressed up for a private event in connection to a nearby annual car festival called the Woodward Dream Cruise.

But despite the stylish touches, it’s still a tire shop. The smell of rubber and oil remains in the air and the sound of workers changing tires combines with music from a DJ inside the shop’s waiting room.

The scene is symbolic of Stewart’s ongoing “Goodyear Forward” turnaround plan. He’s trying to make tires — a historically dirty business — more attractive for investors and friendlier for consumers.

“We have made so much progress, and when you think about it from the standpoint of the Goodyear Forward program, it was really to get our feet back on the ground towards being the iconic company that we always were,” Stewart, wearing an unbuttoned navy blue Goodyear technician shirt, told CNBC during an interview at the shop.

Advertisement

But while Goodyear is well known for burning rubber, it’s also burning cash as it restructures and tries to refinance and pay down years of debt.

Goodyear CEO Mark Stewart (right) being interviewed by CNBC reporter Michael Wayland on Aug. 14, 2026, inside a bay of one of the company’s retail locations in Detroit.

Screenshot

The company’s capital expenditures were roughly $2 billion combined in 2024 and 2025, with expectations of $725 million this year. Its debt remained at more than $7 billion at the end of the second quarter.

Advertisement

Goodyear’s net loss was $453 million through the first half of the year, while its operating income was $131 million, or a 1.6% margin. 

Under the turnaround plan, Stewart wanted Goodyear to reach a 10% operating margin by the end of last year. Instead, that came in at 8.5% in the fourth quarter, and it’s still an outstanding goal for the company to hit that mark.

“We’re working on getting to that double-digit margin, and we’re working on meaningfully generating cash flow,” Stewart said. “It’s been a long time since Goodyear’s done that. That we absolutely must do.”

The automotive veteran was named CEO of Goodyear after leaving Chrysler parent Stellantis in January 2024. Since then, shares of the company have fallen more than 50% despite Goodyear achieving many of the milestones he’s set out to accomplish with the plan.

Advertisement

Stewart doesn’t make excuses for not hitting the targets even though Goodyear’s business, like many, has been impacted by tariffs, inflated raw material costs and the expansion of cheaper Chinese products.  

“We still have a lot of geopolitical headwinds that we’re working through … a lot of headwinds with raw material indexes and a bit of the hangover from the tariff environment,” he said, adding that overseas manufacturers continue to have cost advantages compared to Goodyear.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon
hide content

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. stock

Advertisement

Goodyear’s raw material costs are expected to be roughly flat year-over-year, but a $200 million headwind during the second half, largely due to higher commodity costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East, according to the company and Wall Street analysts.

“Goodyear has faced many big challenges over the past few years, ranging from slower consumer (and commercial) demand, to rising raw material costs, to higher capital expenditures (capex), to low-priced Asian imports (into the U.S.), and, more recently, to trade and tariff legislation. It hasn’t been easy for Goodyear,” Argus analyst Bill Selesky said in an Aug. 17 investor note.

Goodyear is rated a hold with a price target of $7.60, according to average analyst ratings compiled by FactSet. Shares of the company closed Friday at $6.35, down 27% this year.

Goodyear Forward rolls on

The Goodyear Forward turnaround strategy was initially expected to be a two-year plan that went through last year, but the CEO has continued it as he and his executive team map out what’s next for the 128-year-old Akron, Ohio-based company.

Advertisement

“At the right time, we will announce that,” Stewart said. “We continue to press ahead to the next challenges and make sure we get the business in the right space.”

The Goodyear Forward plan had already been released when Stewart was named as incoming CEO, but he has been able to make it his own, including by adding cuts and cost savings. The turnaround plan has cut roughly $1.5 billion in annualized costs from the business, according to the company.

Racing tires displayed inside the factory floors of Goodyear’s headquarters in Akron, Ohio, on Feb. 27, 2025.

Michael Wayland / CNBC

Advertisement

Part of the plan under Stewart has been to move Goodyear more into the premium tire segment, including by selling off units such as its Dunlop brand. It also plans to launch more than 1,600 new products this year, most of which are in higher-end segments with bigger margins.

The product restructuring comes as non-U.S. brands, especially Chinese ones such as Sumitomo and Yokohama, have been expanding globally with cheaper products in lower-end segments, according to Stewart.

Similar to how Chinese automakers have grown outside their own country, tire manufacturers have also been turning to more exports, including the U.S.

“We are not going to compete against a $6 or $10 converted tire. That’s not who we are as Goodyear,” Stewart said, referring to the manufacturing cost required to convert raw materials into a finished tire.

Advertisement

Despite the challenges globally, Goodyear’s Asia-Pacific region is a bright spot for the company. Its segment operating income for the second quarter was $63 million, with an operating margin of 12.7%.

Goodyear Tires bets on premium EV and luxury SUV segments to fend off Chinese rivals

Its U.S. operations have been a main drag on the company’s financials. Stewart is trying to turn that around as consumer demand slows.

The company said its cash burn is expected to continue into 2027 but moderate as the announced closure next year of a plant in Fayetteville, North Carolina, is expected to improve its Americas segment operating income by $270 million annually.

“We had to take a very difficult decision, but a necessary one to announce the closure of our Fayetteville, North Carolina facility. We absolutely didn’t take that lightly, but we just didn’t have a pathway to be competitive out of that facility,” Stewart said. 

The Goodyear Forward plan was prompted by activist investor Elliott Investment Management revealing a stake in the company in 2023. A spokesperson for Elliott, which supported three new Goodyear board members, declined to comment on the company or the firm’s current ownership status.

Advertisement

Goodyear blimps flying high

Part of the Goodyear Forward strategy is to increase focus on marketing and advertising to connect with customers to reinforce the brand.

A large part of that — both physically and financially — comes from the company’s iconic Goodyear blimps that have flown as giant advertisements for more than a century.

A Goodyear blimp flies behind a historic sign for the company in Akron, Ohio.

Goodyear

Advertisement

“The blimp team and the marketing team have really embraced it. So we do a lot of activation around the blimp to literally sell tires,” Stewart said. “When the blimp media marketing has their hat on, it’s always in context of ‘How do we tie this to the tires?’”

Stewart said Goodyear has leaned into the promotion, using social media platforms to tout its aircraft — and their connection to tires — and launching “buy to fly” campaigns in which tire retailers and consumers can win flights aboard its blimps. 

The company was showing off its revamped store alongside a Detroit event that attracts hundreds of thousands of car enthusiasts along a 16-mile stretch annually. To celebrate, and get its advertising in front of tire buyers, it held a rare double-blimp appearance, according to the company. It also featured a collection of smaller “mini blimps.”

“We’ve always made the tires worth bragging about,” Stewart said. “We’re just reminding people now, and that ties into our marketing and advertising as well.”

Advertisement
Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.
Continue Reading

Business

LESS THAN 48 HOURS TO GO: Get InvestingPro for 55% off BEFORE THE SALE ENDS

Published

on


LESS THAN 48 HOURS TO GO: Get InvestingPro for 55% off BEFORE THE SALE ENDS

Continue Reading

Business

These 12 equity mutual funds turned a Rs 10,000 SIP into over Rs 11 crore

Published

on

The Economic Times

An ETMutualFunds analysis found 12 equity mutual funds that turned a Rs 10,000 monthly SIP into more than Rs 11 crore since inception, led by Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund.

Continue Reading

Business

Why Smart Money Abandoned The 60/40 Rule

Published

on

Polen International Growth Q1 2026 Portfolio Activity

This article was written by

Samuel Smith has a diverse background that includes being lead analyst and Vice President at several highly regarded dividend stock research firms and running his own dividend investing YouTube channel. He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional and holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering & Mathematics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and has a Masters in Engineering with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning. Samuel leads the High Yield Investor investing group. Samuel teams up with Jussi Askola and Paul R. Drake where they focus on finding the right balance between safety, growth, yield, and value. High Yield Investor offers real-money core, retirement, and international portfolios. The services also features regular trade alerts, educational content, and an active chat room of like minded investors. Learn more

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XIOR; BAM; OWL; FARMTOGETHER; GROUNDFLOOR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Motley Fool Stock Advisor Claims 964 Percent Return Since 2002, but the Number Hides a Complicated Story

Published

on

S&P 500 Index Earnings Yield

Motley Fool Stock Advisor, the investment newsletter service run by brothers David and Tom Gardner, has posted a 964% average return since its February 2002 launch, more than four times the 213% gain of the S&P 500 over the same 24-year stretch, according to the service’s official performance disclosures as of Aug. 27.

The headline figure has circulated widely in recent Motley Fool marketing materials and financial media coverage, positioning the service as one of the longer-running examples of a subscription stock-picking newsletter that claims to have meaningfully beaten the broader market over multiple decades. But a closer look at how that number is calculated shows it depends heavily on a small handful of extraordinarily successful early recommendations that current and prospective subscribers cannot access today.

Stock Advisor calculates its results using a time-weighted return methodology, the same general approach mandated by the CFA Institute for institutional portfolio managers, according to an analysis published by TechTimes. Under this method, each individual stock recommendation is tracked from the day it was made and compared against the S&P 500’s performance from that same starting point, and the service’s headline return is the simple arithmetic average of every recommendation’s individual result across the newsletter’s full 24-year history.

That structure means every pick, whether made in 2002 or in 2026, counts equally in the average regardless of how long it has had to compound or how much money any individual subscriber actually put behind it. As of Aug. 27, the service’s four largest cornerstone gains were built almost entirely before most current subscribers ever joined: Nvidia, recommended in April 2005, was up 128,583%; Netflix, recommended in December 2004, was up 43,831%; Amazon, recommended in September 2002, was up 33,901%; and Disney, recommended in June 2002, was up 6,158%, according to figures reported by TechTimes and confirmed in the Motley Fool’s own disclosures.

Advertisement

Because the return calculation is a simple average across recommendations rather than a measure of an actual portfolio’s cumulative growth, a single outlier such as Nvidia’s more than 128,000% gain can overwhelm hundreds of other recommendations that returned far more modest amounts, in some cases only 50% or 100% above the market. That means a subscriber who joined Stock Advisor in 2015 or later, after the Nvidia and Netflix recommendations had already been made, would not have captured those specific gains and would likely see personal returns closer to the broader market’s performance than to the service’s advertised 964% figure.

Academic research on investment newsletters more broadly has offered a skeptical view of whether such services consistently deliver market-beating stock selection. A National Bureau of Economic Research study that analyzed 153 investment newsletters over a 17-year period found no statistically significant evidence of superior stock-picking ability across the newsletter industry as a whole, according to TechTimes’ review of the research. The study did find some newsletters that outperformed the market, but concluded that outperformance occurred no more frequently than would be expected by chance alone.

Stock Advisor operates by publishing two new stock recommendations each month, one from its Hidden Gems research team on the first Thursday of the month focused on overlooked companies, and one from its Rule Breakers team on the third Thursday targeting early-stage companies in emerging industries. On the fourth Thursday of each month, both teams jointly publish an updated ranking of the service’s current top 10 recommended stocks. Annual membership costs 199 dollars, though new subscribers are frequently offered introductory pricing around 99 dollars, and the service says it has more than 500,000 active members. Subscribers also gain access to the company’s Fool IQ financial data tools, a Moneyball artificial intelligence scoring system launched in May 2025, and portfolio guidance tailored to different risk tolerances.

For investors who want broader exposure to Motley Fool’s recommended universe of stocks without picking individual positions themselves, the company also operates the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF, traded under the ticker TMFC, which has been available since January 2018 and held roughly 2.06 billion dollars in assets as of late August, according to the service’s disclosures. The fund tracks the 100 largest companies the Motley Fool has recommended, weighted by market capitalization, with technology stocks making up approximately 36% of holdings, followed by communication services at about 16% and financial services at roughly 14%.

Advertisement

Both Stock Advisor’s newsletter recommendations and the TMFC fund now face a different investment landscape than the one that produced their historical gains. The technology stocks responsible for much of the service’s outperformance currently trade at elevated valuations following years of gains, and several of the macroeconomic conditions that supported two decades of strong returns, including persistently low interest rates and rapidly globalizing supply chains, are less favorable today than during earlier stretches of the service’s track record. A recent industry survey cited in coverage of the sector found that roughly nine in 10 investors focused on artificial intelligence stocks plan to hold or buy more shares in that category, reflecting continued optimism that could either sustain current valuations or, some analysts have cautioned, represent future returns being pulled forward into today’s elevated prices.

The Motley Fool has continued to disclose its full recommendation history publicly, including underperforming picks alongside its winners, a level of transparency that distinguishes it from many comparable subscription investment services. Even so, the underlying question for any prospective subscriber remains a personal one: how much of Stock Advisor’s historical outperformance reflects genuine analytical skill in identifying future winners early, and how much reflects a broader, decades-long bet on the technology sector that happened to pay off spectacularly for a small number of specific companies picked years or decades ago.

Continue Reading

Business

How InvestingPro’s Fair Value spotted Ouster’s 48% decline

Published

on


How InvestingPro’s Fair Value spotted Ouster’s 48% decline

Continue Reading

Business

REITs Vs. Treasuries: Which Is The Better Buy Today?

Published

on

REITs Vs. Treasuries: Which Is The Better Buy Today?

REITs Vs. Treasuries: Which Is The Better Buy Today?

Continue Reading

Business

CBIZ soars 78% in 4 months after InvestingPro Fair Value signal

Published

on


CBIZ soars 78% in 4 months after InvestingPro Fair Value signal

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025