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CBB picks: Expert reveals best national semifinal futures bet, team to avoid

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This week in our college basketball futures article, I’ll take a look at the national semifinal market. While a lot of people focus on who will win the championship, sometimes wagering on a team to reach the national semifinal round is the smarter bet. 

One thing I look for in betting college basketball futures is teams peaking late in the season. Those big matchups in November are fun to watch but the reality is they don’t mean much come March. Here are a couple of teams I like in the national semifinal futures market and one to avoid. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best bet: UConn Huskies (+340)

Remember a couple of months ago when betting UConn to win it all was all the rage? After the Huskies fell to St. John’s though, there hasn’t been much talk about UConn with bettors now more enamored with other teams. 

One reason I believe the Huskies are flying a bit under the radar is because they play in the weak Big East conference. UConn had a killer non-conference schedule, so wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, and Texas got people excited. However, the Huskies have played just one big game since Christmas and that was a 81-72 loss to the Red Storm. 

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I do believe playing in a weaker conference can hurt teams come NCAA Tournament time. That has been an issue for Gonzaga over the years. The difference is Danny Hurley has two titles and knows how to prepare his team in March. 

The key metric to predict a college basketball champion is finding teams that rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. UConn is right on the cusp, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency as of Feb. 18. 

The Huskies also create a lot of turnovers and are a strong rebounding team. The only key metric I look at for the NCAA Tournament where UConn falls short is free throw shooting. The Huskies hit just 70% from the foul line, and that can be a factor in close games. 

I came into the season thinking UConn was one of the top teams in the country and my opinion hasn’t changed. We are now at the buy point on the Huskies. There is good value backing UConn +340 to make the national semifinal and +1700 to win the title.

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Back UConn to make the national semifinal at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets when they wager $5 or more and that bet wins:

Best value: Purdue Boilermakers (+600)

Purdue is coming off a blowout loss to Michigan at home, so it may feel like a weird time to back them in the futures market. Betting futures is about being objective and looking for a number. Michigan is better than Purdue and the odds-on favorite to win the title. However, in a one-and-done format like the NCAA Tournament, Purdue may not have to play Michigan to reach the national semifinal and even after the loss, I still believe the Boilermakers can be dangerous in March. 

The thing I like about the Boilermakers is they are elite offensively and good enough defensively. Purdue ranks second in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency. Compare that to a team like Alabama, who is also an elite offensive basketball team but ranks a distant 57th in defensive efficiency. The Tide’s defense simply isn’t good enough to win a title. 

Purdue is a veteran team that rebounds, shoots well from the perimeter and doesn’t turn the ball over. Those are all qualities I look for in the NCAA Tournament. Another positive is the Boilermakers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and been in a lot of close games. Stuff like that matters in March when a lot of games come down to the final few minutes. 

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Purdue has stumbled at times stepping up in class with losses at home to Iowa State, Illinois and Michigan. Still, I believe the Boilermakers have the ingredients to win a few games in the NCAA Tournament and make a national semifinal run if they draw a favorable bracket.

Bet on Purdue to be among the last four teams standing in the tournament at FanDuel, where new users can get $100 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins:

Team to avoid: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1300)

The one championship futures bet I made before the season was Alabama at +4000. Both the Tide and Iowa State were sitting around that number and I was deciding which team to bet. I chose poorly. 

Alabama has a puncher’s chance against anyone because of its offense. It’s tough to play a team that routinely scores 90+ points. The Tide have scored at least 88 points a ridiculous 19 times this season. But I have to question a team that scores 100 points and only beats an average Texas A&M squad by three. It’s hard to see a scenario where Alabama’s defense holds up if the Tide face Duke, UConn or one of the better teams in the Big Ten and Big 12.

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The other thing that scares me about the Crimson Tide isn’t they don’t rebound well. Alabama is 0-10 in its last 10 games against Tennessee and Florida. Why? Because those two teams bully the Tide in the paint and dominate the offensive glass. Again, that doesn’t bode well in potential matchups against strong rebounding teams like Michigan, Houston, Duke and UConn in the NCAA Tournament. 

Alabama is one of the most exciting teams in the country to watch and they have the talent to win a couple of games in the tournament. However, given the Tide’s defensive liabilities, making the second weekend feels like the ceiling for them this season.

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Former Viking Dropped by Super Bowl Champion Seahawks

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Drake London catches a pass while defended by Shaquill Griffin at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) secures a catch while Minnesota Vikings cornerback Shaquill Griffin (1) defends during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 8, 2024. London extended through contact to complete the reception as Griffin contested the throw in tight coverage. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

February 2026 is a bittersweet month for ex-Minnesota Vikings cornerback Shaquill Griffin. He won a Super Bowl a week and a half ago — and was not retained by the 2026 Seattle Seahawks this week.

Seattle moved on from Griffin, and the veteran corner now hits free agency as teams ponder depth charts.

The veteran defender must now contemplate retirement or hope to latch onto a different squad sometime before the start of Week 1.

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Seattle Moves On From Shaquill Griffin

The Seahawks have begun post-Super Bowl roster tweaks.

Shaquill Griffin greets fans before a game in Seattle. Shaquill Griffin Released.
Seattle Seahawks cornerback Shaquill Griffin (26) greets fans prior to kickoff at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington, on Nov. 4, 2018, soaking in the pregame atmosphere before taking the field. The moment captures Griffin interacting with the crowd during his early years as a key contributor in Seattle’s secondary. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.

Griffin Out in SEA

Griffin was not immediately retained by Seattle this week, and this would’ve been the time to re-up the relationship.

NFL writer Erik Anderson noted, “The NFL’s daily personnel notice shows the Seahawks had four practice-squad contracts expire, including Pro Bowl defensive backs Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin, a quiet but telling move that leaves both veterans free to sign elsewhere as Seattle heads into the free-agency window. Even though this is mostly a procedural transaction, Diggs and Griffin are recognizable because they’ve been real NFL starters.”

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“Griffin is a former Seahawk starter and past Pro Bowler who also cycled back into the organization during the season. So when their practice-squad deals expire, fans see the names and assume a major “parting ways” moment. The more accurate framing is: Seattle didn’t immediately lock them into the offseason roster via futures contracts, at least not yet.”

Luckily for Griffin, his 2025 decision to join the Seahawks’ roster included Lombardi trophy smiles.

A Small Role in 2025

The Seahawks signed Griffin in 2026 primarily for practice squad duty — so, insurance. He wound up playing 77 defensive snaps and was targeted 8 times by opposing quarterbacks. Griffin didn’t play in the postseason, either, but the man still earned a Super Bowl ring as part of the 2026 roster.

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Seattle drafted Griffin in Round 3 nine years ago. He brought his career full circle by getting a ring with the team that brought him into the business — even if he rarely played. Call it bittersweet for a well-respected veteran defender.

Career with the Vikings

In his only season with Minnesota in 2024, Griffin provided steady and dependable play, even if he wasn’t a dominant force. His 75.8 passer rating allowed led the team, indicating that quarterbacks struggled to complete passes when targeting him.

Griffin appeared in all 17 games, starting three, and played 572 defensive snaps, representing approximately 50% of the team’s defensive workload.

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Shaquill Griffin celebrates an interception for the Vikings.
Minnesota Vikings cornerback Shaquill Griffin (1) celebrates an interception against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Dec. 1, 2024, energizing the home crowd after the pivotal takeaway. Teammates begin to converge as Griffin punctuates the late-game defensive stand. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.

His best season came in 2019, his third year in the NFL, when he earned a Pro Bowl selection after performing as one of the league’s top cornerbacks.

Griffins’ full NFL resume:

  • Seattle Seahawks (2017–2020)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (2021–2022)
  • Houston Texans (2023)
  • Carolina Panthers (2023)
  • Minnesota Vikings (2024)
  • Seattle Seahawks (2025)

And his Pro Football Focus grades:

  • 2017: 65.3
  • 2018: 50.7
  • 2019: 78.0
  • 2020: 64.6
  • 2021: 72.0
  • 2022: 61.8
  • 2023: 67.0
  • 2024: 63.7
  • 2025: 52.8

Griffin said about being back in Seattle a few months ago, “It felt like old times. I think the last person that was here when I was here that is still on the team is Jarran Reed. The defense they embrace me with open arms, and that’s all I can ask for. I was going to go out there and play my heart out for them, and it worked out.”

“So funny thing, I had a couple people here, but since I found out that I was playing so late, I didn’t have to buy that many tickets. It wasn’t weird. I’ve been here before. The last time I was here was with Houston. We made sure we put the belt on them then and put the belt on them now, so it felt great. It’s no love lost from those guys. I have a lot of guys that I played with over there.”

What’s Next?

Griffin will likely encounter a 2026 offseason similar to last year — no real interest in the first few waves of free agency due to his age. He’ll probably audition for a team or two this summer, hoping to latch onto a 90-man roster and then vie for a spot when 53-man trimdowns are announced.

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Shaquill Griffin reacts during a Jaguars game in London.
Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Shaquill Griffin (26) reacts following an NFL International Series matchup against the Miami Dolphins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England, on Oct. 17, 2021. The Jaguars secured a 23-20 victory, and Griffin’s visible emotion reflects the significance of the overseas win. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.

In all likelihood, assuming he doesn’t retire with his shiny finger hardware, Griffin will end up on a team’s practice squad again and battle for placement on gameday rosters — just like in 2025. It might even be the Seahawks again when the dust settles.

He’ll turn 31 this summer.


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Anthony Kim’s coach, and how an early-2000s swing set Sunday’s win in motion

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David Benavidez offered new world title shot if he can beat Zurdo Ramirez: “That’s the one I want”

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David Benavidez is set for his toughest test yet as he steps up to cruiserweight to challenge Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez for the unified titles at 200lbs, should he be successful, there is another champion that is keen to face him.

Benavidez became the youngest super-middleweight champion in history when he defeated Ronald Gavril for the WBC strap as a 20-year-old back in 2017.

He then headed to 175lbs and claimed the WBC interim light heavyweight title, before being upgraded to full champion and making one defence of his belt, halting Anthony Yarde after seven rounds in November.

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Now the 29-year-old is scheduled to move up in weight once again, as he bids for Ramirez’s WBA and WBO cruiserweight world titles in May.

Speaking to FightHype.com, IBF cruiserweight ruler Jai Opetaia made his intentions clear on facing the winner.

“Definitely, that [winner of Ramirez-Benavidez] is the main fight that I am chasing. I want the winner out of Zurdo and Benavidez. I want that winner, that is my goal right now.

“Until I win that WBO and that WBA, WBC, as well, that is my goal. Anyone that says anything else is f***ing lying. I want to become undisputed in the cruiserweight division.”

The Australian champion was full of praise for both men as he looked ahead to the fight.

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“It’s a good fight, they have both got high work rates, you can tell that they have both got heart, they both want to win and the Mexican way, you have got to respect that.

“Two Mexicans going out and putting it on for their countries, that’s what it’s about at the end of the day, doing it for your people.”

Opetaia fights for the inaugural Zuffa Boxing cruiserweight title when he takes on Brandon Glanton on Sunday, March 8, in his debut with Dana White’s polarising promotional outfit. However, it is unknown whether the IBF title will also be on the line or not.

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Plans for AJ Styles tribute on WWE RAW

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AJ Styles officially retired from WWE back at The Royal Rumble when he came up short against Gunther in their retirement match.

It was announced this week on RAW that a tribute to Styles will take place in his hometown of Atlanta, Georgia, next week. However, it seems that the plans have now been leaked.

Bryan Alvarez noted on the most recent episode of the Wrestling Observer that there are SmackDown stars who are being flown in for RAW to be part of the tribute.

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Styles has a lot of friends in WWE and a lot of stars who want to thank him for the impact he has had on their careers. It seems that many of these stars will come from SmackDown, and there could be some crossover with this being the final RAW before Elimination Chamber.

AJ Styles is expected to be in attendance for WWE RAW next week

AJ Styles is expected to be part of the show next week, since they are in his hometown, and it seems that it could be an emotional one.

The former World Champion has already confirmed that he will walk away from WWE, and that the plan was always for him to retire at The Royal Rumble, but this tribute could allow Gunther to continue his story with Styles if he shows up to not only crash the tribute but also to send a message to Dragon Lee who cost him his Elimination Chamber qualifying match.

It will be interesting to see what WWE’s official plans are for the tribute itself and which stars are included. Styles spent a decade in WWE, and in that time he worked with just about every star on the roster and left an impression on the WWE Universe whenever he stepped into the ring.

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