Bitcoin’s near-term sell pressure has eased sharply, with onchain data pointing to a “low sell-side risk” environment as August profit-taking fades into September. Glassnode’s latest weekly onchain report shows Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio has fallen to 7—down from 16 in September—an improvement that can matter for traders who watch realized profits as a trigger for faster, more emotional selling.

The same Glassnode update also highlights how long-term holders are realizing profits more selectively, while US spot Bitcoin ETF investors remain deeply underwater on an aggregate basis relative to their breakeven level near $86,000.

Key takeaways

• Glassnode reports Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio reset lower, dropping to 7—among the lowest readings recorded.
• Lower selling pressure coincides with Bitcoin holding most of its roughly 25% August gains.
• Long-term holders’ share of realized profit fell to 47% from 88% at the August peak.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF investors have spent 229 sessions below the aggregate breakeven point near $86,000, with paper losses around $3.9 billion.

Why the sell-side risk ratio matters

Glassnode frames its sell-side risk ratio (SSRR) as a measure of “realized” pressure rather than just price movement. The metric takes the total value of onchain realized profits and losses and divides it by Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization. In other words, it aims to capture how much US-dollar value has actually changed hands versus the size of the realized coin base for the period in question.

In the report, Glassnode says lower SSRR values typically align with conditions such as “macro market bottoms, accumulation phases and relatively low sell-side risk environments.” That interpretation is particularly relevant for markets that have recently rallied, because periods of heavy realized profit can increase the likelihood that holders decide to lock gains if price momentum stalls.

September cooling after August’s rebound

Glassnode ties the SSRR decline to a post-rebound shift in realized behavior. The company noted that SSRR reached 16 when Bitcoin surged to multimonth highs above $80,000 in late August. As of this week, the ratio has more than halved to 7, which Glassnode characterizes as one of the lowest readings on record.

The onchain analytics platform argues that the August price rebound “drawn little supply,” referring to an absence of meaningful supply emergence in onchain activity. Glassnode also contextualizes how unusual this is versus other periods: it pointed out that similar “supply draw” conditions were not observed in the same way at later points in the year, and that only a small share of days across the past year have posted readings lower than today.

That matters because a low SSRR environment can reduce the probability that even a relatively modest pullback immediately triggers aggressive selling. It doesn’t eliminate downside risk—price can still move on macro factors or liquidity—but it can change the balance between who is likely to sell and how much profit exists to be realized.

Profit-taking shifts: long-term holders selling less

Beyond aggregate sell pressure, Glassnode also focused on who is realizing profits onchain. The report defines long-term holders as wallet entities that hold a UTXO without spending it for at least six months. According to Glassnode, these holders are realizing profits at a lower rate this month.

Specifically, Glassnode says long-term holders’ share of realized profit has fallen to 47% from 88% at the August peak. It also notes that September’s realized profit spike on September 3, 2026 was under half the size of August’s. The combined message is that the “profit who sells” dynamic appears to be shifting away from the most patient holders.

“The sellers this month are recent buyers, and even they are selling less.”

For investors, that distinction can be meaningful: recent entrants are often more sensitive to near-term price changes, while long-term holders typically respond differently. If the selling impulse is increasingly concentrated among newer holders—and even they are moderating—it can help explain why SSRR is trending down even after a strong month.

ETF breakevens remain a key reference point

Even with improving sell-side risk, the report underscores that ETF positioning is still a notable overhang. Glassnode says US spot Bitcoin ETF investors would return to aggregate profit at roughly $86,000. According to the report, Bitcoin has closed below that level for the past 229 sessions, and ETF investors’ paper losses are currently around $3.9 billion.

This doesn’t necessarily mean ETF holders are selling aggressively—paper losses can persist through drawdowns when investors maintain exposure through continued inflows or hold through volatility. But from a behavioral perspective, breakeven levels often become a psychological and institutional reference point. If prices revisit $86,000, ETF investors may face pressure to reassess risk, while the opposite scenario (further declines) could intensify the temptation to reduce exposure.

The SSRR decline may therefore help temper fears that a correction automatically forces a cascade of realized selling. At the same time, ETF breakeven dynamics serve as a reminder that a large cohort is still sitting on losses, and that sentiment could change quickly if price action approaches or moves away from that threshold.

Readers should watch whether SSRR stays near these low levels as Bitcoin’s price continues to trade relative to the $80,000 area and whether ETF performance moves ETF investors closer to—or further from—aggregate breakeven near $86,000. The key question is whether September’s “lower sell-side risk” environment persists as realized profit levels evolve.

Nasdaq has put $100 million into Payward, the parent company behind the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, as part of an expansion push into tokenized assets. The investment is positioned to connect Nasdaq-listed equities to tokenized trading through Kraken’s platform, while also bringing Nasdaq surveillance tools into Payward’s broader markets infrastructure.

The deal deepens an already existing relationship between Nasdaq and Payward. In March, Nasdaq announced its partnership with Payward to support tokenized equities, and Thursday’s announcement adds both capital and operational integration.

Key takeaways

• Nasdaq’s venture arm invested $100 million in Payward, valuing Kraken’s parent at $21 billion, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.
• Kraken is set to offer tokenized versions of Nasdaq-listed stocks on its own exchange platform.
• Payward will adopt Nasdaq surveillance technology across its venues spanning crypto, equities, tokenized equities, futures, and options.
• The move follows recent European expansion efforts tied to tokenized stocks from other major exchanges, including Deutsche Börse and the London Stock Exchange.
• RWA.xyz data shows tokenized stocks have a distributed value above $2.9 billion, up 7.4% over the past month.

Nasdaq invests in Kraken’s parent to scale tokenized equity offerings

Nasdaq disclosed that its venture unit made the $100 million investment in Payward. Payward is the corporate parent of Kraken, which has been positioning itself as a venue for digital-asset trading and, increasingly, tokenized versions of traditional financial instruments.

Under the terms of the announcement, Kraken will offer tokenized versions of Nasdaq-listed stocks directly on its own platform. The announcement builds on the framework Nasdaq and Payward outlined earlier, including a partnership described by Cointelegraph in March as focused on issuer-centric tokenized equities.

For investors, the practical significance is straightforward: the investment signals that tokenized equities are moving from isolated pilots toward more mainstream exchange distribution channels. Kraken’s customer base and trading infrastructure may become a larger on-ramp for investors seeking 24/5 access to equity-linked products—an approach other venues have also been testing.

Surveillance tech integration across crypto and tokenized markets

Beyond the capital infusion, Nasdaq said Payward will adopt its surveillance technology across multiple market types. According to the announcement, the coverage will extend across Payward’s crypto venues, equities venues, tokenized equity venues, futures, and options.

That matters because surveillance and monitoring are central to how regulated trading ecosystems address market integrity, compliance, and risk management. Rather than treating tokenized equities as a separate back-office experiment, the announcement describes a consolidation of tooling across asset classes and trading formats.

In effect, Nasdaq is leveraging its infrastructure and regulatory experience to support a wider deployment of tokenized products—while Payward gains access to a standardized monitoring layer that can help it scale listings and operations without reinventing compliance workflows for each new category.

What the $21 billion valuation implies for the tokenization race

Bloomberg reported that the investment valued Kraken’s parent, Payward, at $21 billion, citing people familiar with the matter. Nasdaq did not provide that valuation figure in the disclosure itself, but the reported number gives readers a benchmark for how much strategic capital major exchange operators are willing to attach to blockchain-native market infrastructure.

Cointelegraph previously noted that Nasdaq has been pushing for “always-on” markets, which includes exploring regulatory pathways for trading tokenized stocks. In the context of this latest investment, the $21 billion figure suggests tokenization is becoming a core part of Nasdaq’s growth narrative rather than a side project.

Earlier this month, Nasdaq also shared plans to acquire Level Markets as part of its always-on strategy. And a year ago, Nasdaq filed a proposal with the US Securities and Exchange Commission related to tokenization—showing that the current momentum is supported by longer-term regulatory work rather than a sudden shift.

Momentum across major exchanges: Deutsche Börse and London Stock Exchange

Nasdaq’s move arrives amid a wider flurry of exchange activity around tokenized equities.

Earlier this month, Kraken partnered with the London Stock Exchange to launch access to 24/5 trading of tokenized stocks tracking UK equity products, with the initiative expected to start in 2027. In April, Deutsche Börse invested $200 million in Payward, aligning with its own plans to broaden access to blockchain-based securities and tokenized investment products.

Taken together, these investments show that competitive pressure is no longer limited to cryptocurrency trading. Exchange groups are positioning tokenized stocks as part of the next evolution in market access—especially in markets where investors want trading flexibility outside traditional windows.

For market participants, the key question now is not just whether tokenized equities can be issued, but whether liquidity, custody, settlement, and compliance can scale across multiple issuers, venues, and jurisdictions without fragmenting the user experience.

How big is the tokenized stocks market today?

Tokenization remains a niche compared with the broader equities market, but growth is visible. Data compiled by RWA.xyz indicates the current distributed value of tokenized stocks is more than $2.9 billion, up 7.4% over the past month.

That metric doesn’t directly measure overall trading volume across all tokenized products, but it provides a useful read on how much capital is currently locked into tokenized stock representations. With Nasdaq’s $100 million bet and broader exchange partnerships around tokenized equities, the next phase to watch is whether distributed value and real trading activity rise in tandem.

As Nasdaq, Kraken, and other exchanges continue to connect tokenized stocks to mainstream trading infrastructure, investors should pay close attention to how quickly tokenized Nasdaq-listed stocks launch on Kraken, how surveillance and compliance integration affects operational rollout, and whether distributed value continues accelerating alongside new listings.

Crypto exchange Hyperliquid is paying traders 500% a year to hold long oil derivatives. Payouts are hourly as an additional reward atop the price appreciation of oil itself which has regained $100 per barrel.

Of course, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. There are no free lunches on Wall Street.

First of all, Hyperliquid offers extreme leverage — up to 20x on Brent oil, for example — so unremarkable, intraday price fluctuations can easily wipe out a portfolio.

Moreover, even unlevered trades on Hyperliquid inherit innumerable financial risks from bugs, hackers, market manipulators, vulnerable technologies, and offshore counterparties.

Still, Brent and WTI oil perpetuals on the crypto exchange printed deeply negative hourly funding rates today, meaning that the short side of the trade is overcrowded and must pay fees to borrow margin exposure from less popular longs.

Traders on the venue are so one-sided that shorts must pay 500% annualized fees to anyone willing to go long.

Of course, many Hyperliquid short-sellers are day traders who incur minimal funding fees during a quick trade of a few minutes or hours. Still, the funding rate mismatch between shorts and longs is incredible.

Although Brent oil is trading below its $126 peak on April 30 as a reward for long-term shorts since that date, longs have been winning recently.

As shorts stare in disbelief at rapidly rising prices, longs not only benefit from leveraged gains but also receive hourly funding payouts.

Oil has rallied 6% today alone, and the world’s most actively traded commodity is 24% more expensive than 30 days ago amid escalating tensions in the tanker straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

Year to date, oil is up 75%.

The Iran war that began in February has kept squeezing seaborne supply and global logistics for millions of barrels that the world burns daily.

Read more: Crypto traders paid 8,700% annualized fees to bet on Anthropic

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Hyperliquid isn’t literally paying from a corporate account

Technically, funding rates on Hyperliquid aren’t an exchange fee. Hyperliquid isn’t generally in the business of discretionary choices about these fees.

Instead, funding fees are algorithmically determined and occur as hourly transfers between traders.

The intention of funding rates is to tug Hyperliquid’s crypto-native perpetual contract for oil back toward the so-called “oracle” price. Oracle data providers attempt to monitor real-world, off-blockchain prices and broadcast that data onto blockchains in a well-formatted, standardized, and reliable way.

When the contract trades cheaply relative to the oracle price, shorts pay longs, and vice versa.

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Hyperliquid News blamed the monthly futures contract roll for today’s particularly egregious funding rates. Writers at the publication opined, “It’s simply due to the roll schedule.”

Specifically, Trade[XYZ] does roll WTI oil from V6 to X6, and Brent from X6 to Z6, between September 8 and September 14.

However, funding rates don’t normally spike this high during futures contracts rolling dates. Given the volatility of oil itself, Hyperliquid’s contracts are particularly popular and one-sided for a variety of reasons this week.

Earlier this year, US exchanges ICE and CME asked Washington to police Hyperliquid’s anonymous oil books, warning the venue could distort the global price.

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Europe’s top securities regulator is urging closer surveillance of how crypto markets are increasingly intertwined with traditional finance, warning that vulnerabilities in digital-asset ecosystems could contribute to wider financial-system shocks.

In a risk monitoring report published Thursday, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) highlighted the “growing linkage between increasingly vulnerable crypto-asset markets and the broader financial system,” pointing to both new forms of market integration and specific activity it says can amplify contagion risk.

Key takeaways

• ESMA warns crypto-to-traditional finance links may help shocks spread as crypto activity becomes more connected to mainstream market infrastructure.
• Tokenized equities remain small globally but are gaining traction in Europe, potentially changing who participates and how markets are structured.
• DeFi exploits are on ESMA’s radar as another channel through which crypto disruptions could spill into the wider system.
• Prediction markets are flagged as an emerging concern, with particular focus on insider trading, wash trading, and coordinated manipulation.
• The US regulatory fight over prediction markets continues and could ultimately be settled by the US Supreme Court.

Crypto’s growing connection to traditional markets

ESMA’s warning centers on the possibility that vulnerabilities concentrated in crypto markets could be transmitted into the broader financial system—especially as adoption broadens beyond purely crypto-native venues.

The regulator singled out two developments that could deepen these connections: increased interest in tokenized equities and ongoing risks tied to decentralized finance (DeFi).

On tokenized equities, ESMA stressed that their scale is still negligible relative to global stock markets. However, the report argues that even small segments can matter if they begin pulling in new participants, infrastructure, and liquidity pathways that are shared with, or tightly linked to, mainstream markets.

In DeFi, ESMA pointed to the continued occurrence of exploits—an area that can trigger rapid losses, liquidations, and liquidity stress. While ESMA did not claim direct causal links in every case, its broader message was clear: as crypto mechanisms intersect more frequently with traditional systems, risk events may no longer stay contained within crypto.

Prediction markets: harder enforcement, new compliance challenges

Among ESMA’s most notable emerging flags is the growing use of prediction markets. The regulator said concerns could intensify around insider trading and market manipulation, especially when crypto tools are involved.

ESMA’s report indicates that crypto use in prediction-market activity can complicate detection of problematic conduct such as wash trading and coordinated manipulation. The issue is not only who trades, but how activity is routed and recorded—factors that can affect the visibility regulators have into trading intent and coordination.

The warning matters for traders and market operators because enforcement often depends on the practical ability to identify patterns quickly and attribute them to individuals or entities. If crypto mechanics reduce the clarity of market surveillance, regulators may face higher compliance burdens and potentially stricter controls as authorities react.

US jurisdiction battle over event contracts

ESMA’s European concerns arrive as prediction markets in the United States face a separate, but related, regulatory struggle over what rules apply. The core disagreement is whether event contracts are treated as federal derivatives or fall under state gambling frameworks.

According to ESMA’s report context, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance for prediction markets throughout 2026, while defending what it says is its exclusive jurisdiction over federally regulated event contracts.

That position has been tested in court. The CFTC has sued multiple states—including Kentucky, New Mexico, Illinois and Connecticut, and Minnesota—after those authorities attempted to apply state gambling laws to prediction market operators.

ESMA’s warning about manipulation and insider trading sits in the middle of this broader policy tension: if legal categories remain contested, compliance requirements can differ sharply depending on how a court characterizes the underlying instrument.

The dispute could also reach the US Supreme Court. On September 2, New Jersey officials petitioned the court to decide whether states may enforce sports gambling laws against prediction markets registered with the CFTC. The officials cited ongoing litigation across at least 20 states.

Whether the Supreme Court will accept the case remains uncertain, but a ruling—if it occurs—could materially affect how market operators structure products and how regulators allocate oversight authority.

What investors and builders should watch next

ESMA’s report is a reminder that regulators are tracking not only crypto trading activity, but also how crypto-native products could plug into mainstream financial plumbing. The next question for investors and market participants is whether measures meant to protect traditional markets will keep pace with fast-evolving crypto linkages—particularly in areas ESMA highlighted, such as tokenized equities, DeFi exploits, and prediction markets.

As enforcement and jurisdiction battles continue—especially in the US—readers should watch for updates to surveillance expectations, compliance requirements, and how courts ultimately define the legal category of prediction-market contracts.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase partnered with financial platform Moov to bring stablecoin infrastructure to more than 1,000 community banks and credit unions that are part of Moov’s customer base.

The partnership will combine Coinbase’s regulated digital asset infrastructure and Moov’s payments platform to offer stablecoin payment acceptance, settlement and real-time funding, according to a Thursday announcement.

The infrastructure will support use cases such as consumer stablecoin payments, merchant settlement and payouts. It will also offer businesses and merchants access to Coinbase custodial accounts.

Community banks in the US typically have less than $10 billion in total assets and include state chartered institutions as well as savings and loan holding companies.

The announcement comes as some of the largest US banks are experimenting with stablecoin infrastructure. On Wednesday, U.S. Bank, the fifth-largest commercial bank in the US, completed a live cross-border payment using its proprietary USBDC stablecoin on the Stellar blockchain. 

Earlier this month, 21 financial institutions, including Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and UBS, announced plans to form a company to issue stablecoins, including a US dollar-denominated stablecoin in the first half of 2027. 

Non-bank competitors are entering the stablecoin niche. In August, Western Union partnered with stablecoin infrastructure provider Rain to launch a digital wallet and Visa-branded card that enables users to hold and spend a US dollar-backed stablecoin.

Related: Mastercard, Borderless test shared identity checks for stablecoin transfers

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