At the recent low of 12514 points, the Sensex has tested the 12800-12000-pts support zone and has since then attempted a corrective rally. During the past trend phases in the Sensex, a monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) cross-down below its trigger line, have, typically, led to a significant value erosion, with the corrective phase lasting, at least, for a year.
Therefore, immediate rallies would be interpreted as corrective in nature until the medium-term technical parameters turn positive. The recent upmove in the Sensex since the low of 12514 pts has been very sharp. The upside gap of July 23, 2008 had created a bullish ���Island Reversal Gap��� on the daily charts between 14510 pts and 14519 pts.

Normally, the implications of this on the medium-term outlook would be very positive, especially since the ���Island��� comprised of 22 trading sessions. When a stock indicates an uptrend, trades above the gap which occurs, then gaps back down and trades below the initial price, an island reversal has occurred.

However, the Sensex has since run into a strong resistance zone between 15026 pts and 15390 pts. The monthly mid-point of June 2008 is at 15026 pts. The 50% retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak (17735 pts) is at 15124 pts. The positive implications of the bullish ���Island Reversal Gap��� would thus get negated if the Sensex has a daily close below 14104 pts (the close on July 22, 2008). The Sensex is then expected to have an initial downside of 13513 pts, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from 12514 pts to 15130 pts.

If the bearish ���Island reversal gap��� of 14484-14568 pts is immediately filled and the Sensex manages to decisively overhaul the resistances between 15130 pts and 15390 pts, the ongoing upmove would continue. The Sensex may then test higher levels between 16618 pts and 16860 pts.

The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak is at 16618 pts while 16860 pts is the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from the January 2008 peak. Hence, one would await further confirmation before turning positive on the medium-term outlook.
(The author is VP of technical research at Darashaw)

AHMEDABAD: Its too late and too little done in the US to come out of the financial turmoil, a crisis of 240 trillion $ cannot be stemmed with bailout packages of 1 to 10 trillion $, Arun Kumar, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University said here on Thursday.

“When the US president elect Barrack Obama assumes office in January, the crisis will still be bigger,” Kumar said while delivering lecture on Current Financial Turmoil and Lesson for Future at Ahmedabad Management Association today.

“150 billion $ tax cut package for the housing sector was too little and too late to stem the collapse of a much higher magnitude,” Kumar said adding “Every aspect of financial sector got sucked into the financial turmoil.”

“In last two decades the financial markets in US got deregulated, under the guidance of Alan Greenspan as he worked on assumption that markets are self stabilising, but in a recent testitmony Greenspan admitted he was wrong for 16 years,” Kumar said while quoting a US leading daily.

This deregulation led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stern and other troubled entitites, he added.

“Government has intervened, crisis has slowed down, but there is crisis of confidence now amongst the banks. The financial and money markets work on certain degree of trust and confidence and this should not be shattered at any cost,” he added.”Collapse in US was so sharp against the gradual rise because the banks were interlocked in deals. Due to deregulartion there were instruments promising much higher returns and even a marginal fall in assest pricing triggered it all,” Arun Kumar said.

US economy was thriving on borrowed funds, so post crisis countries such as Japan, China, Iceland, Ukraine and others are in deep trouble. China is finding ways to delink from dollar, after corporate profits began falling showing early signs of heading into recession, Arun Kumar said.

Now protectionism of economy has creeped in due to lack of confidence, that too is dangeorus, he cautioned. So when the US President-elect Barrack Obama joins office he would prioritise job creation in sectors like BPO and call centres, Kumar said adding, in the past 1.5 billion job loss has been reported in US.

So at this historic juncture a out-of-box re-architecturing is required for the $ 600 trillion financial sector, he added.

In the backdrop of such a scenario the G-20 initiative is important and extensive coordination between the government’s including Indian should be evolved to come over it, Kumar added.

cmp: Rs 1,135.70

target price: Rs 1,246

Prabhudas Lilladher has a ���reduce��� rating on Infosys Technologies as it feels that the outlook for the company and the software industry is quite weak in the near-term.

���While we expect Infosys to perform better than most other players in the industry, we rate the stock ���reduce��� with a target of Rs 1,246,��� says the report.

With a difficult FY10E and full-tax FY11E, the two-year earnings CAGR (FY09-11) for the company is unlikely to be over 10-15%, it adds. According to the broking house, the company���s pricing power in fresh contracts would remain under pressure as ���pricing behaviour by competition has turned aggressive in new contracts.���

While Infosys has seen some weakness in the BFSI domain in the recent past, the outfit expects this weakness to ���spread to retail and possibly the manufacturing domains as well.��� Of the various service lines, Enterprise Solutions may be worst affected over the next few quarters, according to the management, it adds. The broking house is also expecting another reduction in US dollar guidance by Infosys.

This refers to your edit ���A welcome quest��� (ET, Oct 8). It is imperative to have a strong database. But just having a database of employment is not enough; the data has to be consistent. It has been observed that data vary from ministry to ministry, department to department. India���s information system is not very precise and efficient. One centralised database system can address this issue which will provide access to the diverse group of people and policymakers with consistency.

Debasish Maitra

IRMA, Anand, October 8

This refers to your edit ‘India needs new banks’ (ET, Mar 4). Financial inclusion and financial literacy will be the paramount objective while implementing reforms along with UID project to protect the interests of poor. Modern banking system has lost apersonal touch. Even citizens from semi-urban areas are reluctant to use ATMs. NextGen banking may fail in rural areas. It’s true we need more banks and innovative way of thinking, competition will drive away inefficient players.

ET has also suggested the perfect solution to the problem in the same edition, ‘Before they compete, let banks consolidate’. Narasimhan panel too has suggested to have less number of banks with more branches at the national level. The author has pointed out that of 9,000 private bank branches, just 1,138 are located in rural areas. This means they are not keen to go rural.

Shishir Sindekar,

Nasik, March 4

This refers to ‘We withdrew stimulus last year!’ (ET, Mar 4). TT Ram Mohan has rightly suggested that the tax-GDP ratio measures structural improvement. The FM must rethink his medium-term debtto-GDP target. Losing substantial revenues by cutting I-T rates seems odd. If oil breaches $75-80, the FM will have to hike petroproduct prices and borrow more. Most sectors like FMCG are raising prices sharply due to hikes in excise duties and fuel taxes. Macro-economic conditions like hefty government borrowings, tight monetary control and a fiscal strategy relying on uncertain disinvestment/spectrum auction proceeds, will impinge on private investments in 2010-11. D B Naik
Mumbai, March 4