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This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ARE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

A new maritime attack in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified fears that the disruption to global energy supplies could become more severe. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a vessel was hit by a projectile, while Saudi Arabia has already temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline, which normally carries around 4–5 million barrels per day.

Key points

• New vessel attack reported in Strait of Hormuz, with shipping disruption continuing.
• Saudi Arabia’s alternative East-West pipeline carrying 4–5m barrels/day has been temporarily shut.
• Houthi control of Perim Island raises additional risks for the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea trade route.

Why it matters: Thailand faces a double exposure through both higher energy prices and higher shipping costs. The shock could reinforce Bangkok’s push for renewable energy and domestic energy resilience, but in the short term it threatens corporate margins, household purchasing power, inflation and Thailand’s external balance.

The Saudi pipeline had become particularly important because it provides an alternative export route while traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted. The latest incident therefore removes part of the Gulf’s spare logistical capacity at precisely the moment when oil markets are already facing supply shortages.

The risks extend beyond crude oil. The Houthis have taken control of Perim Island, strategically located at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb, potentially increasing the threat to shipping between the Gulf and the Red Sea. With both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb under pressure, Asian importers face higher insurance, freight and delivery costs in addition to the direct increase in energy prices.

Iran has also signalled that a planned meeting in Oman will not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is seeking conditions including recognition of its position over the waterway and the right to collect transit fees, making a rapid return to normal shipping conditions increasingly uncertain.

For Thailand, the implications are significant because the country is a major net energy importer. A prolonged period of oil above US$100 would increase transport and production costs, put pressure on inflation and the trade balance, and complicate monetary policy even if domestic demand remains weak.