Crypto World
Bitcoin to $100,000 Next Year? VanEck Reveals What Gets It There
VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, expects Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $100,000 by next year, arguing that government debt burdens are propping up the asset.
Sigel delivered the forecast on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Friday, with Bitcoin trading near $77,400 in a week that hit crypto from three directions at once.
Bitcoin Holds Its Ground Through a Punishing Policy Week
Bitcoin changed hands at $77,403 on Friday, up 1.26% on the day and more than 20% over the past month, according to BeInCrypto Markets data.
The asset still sits roughly 39% below its record of over $126,000 set on October 6, 2025.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
That monthly gain arrived despite a rough stretch for risk assets. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023. The Bank of Japan followed on Friday, lifting its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.
Crypto also lost its biggest legislative prize. The Senate rejected cloture on the Clarity Act by a 49-50 vote on Tuesday, stranding the market-structure bill. Bitcoin’s price held through the Fed and Senate decisions, but the on-chain picture weakened.
The Argument Behind Sigel’s $100,000 Bitcoin Call
Sigel argued that over-indebted governments explain why Bitcoin keeps hanging in. He noted that volatility has fallen by half compared with four years ago, marking a break from the last cycle.
He also pointed to traders paying up for puts over calls and to the Treasury bond buyback program, which triggered heavy short covering. According to him, it reminded people that the calendar is “very much in your favor if you’re a bitcoin bull.”
“Very unlikely that policymakers are going to address this unsustainable fiscal dynamic, and then as and if liquidity eases, you know that would be a turbocharge for Bitcoin,” he said.
Conversations with advisors and sovereign wealth funds show institutional clients are all buying, Sigel said.
The $100,000 call is not new. Sigel floated that level in April and repeated it in August, alongside a $500,000 target for 2029. In May, he laid out a longer-term case for $1 million within the next several years.
From Friday’s price, Bitcoin needs a 29% gain to reach $100,000. The 2029 target requires roughly 546%, while $1 million sits about 1,192% away.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights
The post Bitcoin to $100,000 Next Year? VanEck Reveals What Gets It There appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
RWA futures trading volume catches up with crypto at $107.6 billion
Real world asset futures have reached $107.6 billion in monthly trading volume, putting contracts tied to equities, commodities and private companies roughly level with crypto futures after a 142 fold increase in nine months.
Summary
- RWA futures volume surged 142 fold in nine months to $107.6 billion in July, roughly matching crypto futures at $105.7 billion.
- Open interest in RWA contracts climbed 167 fold to $1.72 billion, while crypto futures open interest fell to $7.1 billion.
- Equity contracts accounted for 83% of RWA open interest, while commodity trading responded sharply to moves in oil and silver.
- Pre IPO contracts for companies including SpaceX and Cerebras drew substantial trading activity around their public listings.
According to a joint report from OKX and Token Terminal shared with crypto.news, RWA futures generated $107.6 billion in trading volume in July 2026, up from $760 million in October 2025, while crypto futures recorded $105.7 billion during the same month.
The expansion came even as overall onchain derivatives activity cooled sharply. Quarterly derivatives volume fell by more than half from its peak, while open interest dropped to a one year low of $8.76 billion, according to the report.
RWA contracts moved in the opposite direction. Open interest across the category rose 167 fold in nine months to $1.72 billion, leaving the contracts with a growing share of an otherwise weaker derivatives market.
RWA futures have caught up with crypto contracts
OKX and Token Terminal traced the change in trading behavior to the crypto market selloff on Oct. 10, 2025, when more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated.
Before the event, crypto futures accounted for nearly all onchain derivatives volume. Trading in contracts linked to real world assets remained limited, with the category generating $760 million in monthly volume.
By July, the composition had changed. RWA contracts reached $107.6 billion in monthly trading volume, roughly matching the $105.7 billion recorded by crypto contracts.
Open interest showed a similar divergence. Crypto futures open interest fell from $9.1 billion to $7.1 billion over the nine month period, while RWA open interest climbed from $10.3 million to $1.72 billion.
The report said commodities accounted for 14% of RWA open interest by July, with equities representing 83% and pre IPO contracts making up most of the remaining share.
Activity in related markets has been growing outside the futures segment as well. crypto.news previously reported that the tokenized RWA market had expanded 589% since early 2025, with tokenized stocks recording some of the fastest growth.
Tokenized equity activity accelerated again in August. Monthly transfer volume reached $29.5 billion during the 30 days ending Aug. 29, an increase of more than 415%, while monthly active addresses climbed 209% to 1.3 million.
Commodity trading responds to events outside crypto
The report found that RWA futures activity was increasingly tied to developments in the markets represented by the contracts instead of movements in cryptocurrencies.
Oil provided one example. Following strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, trading volume in an onchain West Texas Intermediate contract increased 149 fold within nine days to $1.69 billion.
Bitcoin volume remained broadly flat during the same period, even as oil trading accelerated. The report linked the difference to traders responding directly to events affecting crude prices.
Silver showed another pattern. Onchain silver trading reached a record $17.3 billion in February as the metal hit a record price, before volume declined during the following months as the price eased.
Equity contracts responded to scheduled market events. Trading in an onchain S&P 500 contract peaked at $735 million on July 29, the day of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, before reaching $751 million the following day.
Liquidity in some tokenized stock markets has already moved closer to levels found in established crypto markets. A June analysis found that Nvidia linked perpetuals on Bitget had reached around $4.1 million in liquidity depth, equivalent to roughly 75% of the exchange’s Bitcoin spot market.
Pre IPO contracts have created another RWA trading market
Contracts tracking private companies have developed alongside commodities and public equities, with traders using them to gain price exposure before a company reaches the public market.
The report highlighted SpaceX and Cerebras as examples.
Open interest in a pre IPO SpaceX contract peaked at $976 million on June 11, one day before its June 12 listing. Monthly volume reached $10.9 billion within three months of the contract’s introduction.
Trading continued after the listing. The SpaceX contract traded around 28% above its offer price before the event and remained roughly 16% below that level seven weeks later, according to the report.
Cerebras contracts recorded a different pattern. Open interest more than tripled to $28.5 million around the company’s May 14 listing, while its contract traded at $289 before listing against a $185 offer price. Cerebras stock opened at $350.
OKX and Token Terminal said pre IPO contracts can establish a market price for a company before its shares begin public trading, with the contracts incorporating expectations around the eventual listing price.
Tokenized securities infrastructure has continued to develop alongside these derivative products. Ondo Finance, for example, has been exploring an acquisition valued between $250 million and $500 million after its broker dealer subsidiary received additional FINRA authorizations covering tokenized corporate equities, exchange traded funds and other investment products.
Retail and institutional traders use RWA markets differently
Trading patterns in the report varied depending on the underlying asset and type of participant.
Retail traders were more active in highly volatile markets. Short positions in the silver contract reached an average of 4.3 times the size of long positions when silver peaked in February, while retail activity declined as volatility fell.
Pre IPO SpaceX contracts produced the opposite positioning around the June listing. Short side traders roughly tripled afterward, taking the long to short ratio to 4.2 times.
Institutional accounts generally held larger positions for longer periods. Before the SpaceX listing, their average short position was around $1.1 million, compared with roughly $1,000 for retail traders, while institutional accounts recorded average holding periods of 12,046 minutes against 60 minutes for retail participants.
The report found that market structure varied across asset classes as well. Equity contracts accounted for 83% of RWA open interest in July, yet generated 72% of single name equity trading volume. Commodities represented a smaller share of open interest but reacted more sharply to changes in the prices of the assets they tracked.
A separate gap remains between RWA issuance and use inside decentralized finance. Data published in September showed that only $3.79 billion of the $34.6 billion tokenized RWA market had been deployed in protocols, leaving roughly 89% of issued value outside DeFi applications.
Crypto World
Binance keeps MiCA plans intact despite Lagarde intervention report
Binance has kept its European licensing plans open after declining to address a report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde intervened in its failed Greek MiCA application.
Summary
- Binance declined to comment on a report that Christine Lagarde intervened in its Greek MiCA application.
- Greek officials reportedly told ESMA in early June that the HCMC intended to approve the Binance license.
- Binance withdrew its Greek application on June 24 and said it would pursue authorization in another EU jurisdiction.
- The exchange remains without MiCA authorization after missing the July 1 licensing deadline.
According to a Sept. 18 Wall Street Journal report, a vice chair of Greece’s Hellenic Capital Market Commission told Binance that Lagarde had asked Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis not to approve the exchange’s application. The account has not been publicly confirmed by Lagarde, the ECB or the Greek regulator.
“We will not comment on speculation,” a Binance spokesperson said in response to the report. The exchange maintained that it remains committed to securing authorization under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation, or MiCA.
“In Europe, Binance remains committed to operating on a long-term, compliant basis under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation,” the spokesperson said.
Binance Greek MiCA bid was reportedly close to approval
Greek officials had informed the European Securities and Markets Authority in early June that the HCMC intended to approve Binance’s application, according to the Wall Street Journal. The exchange had been preparing for approval weeks earlier and drafted an announcement describing the expected authorization as a major milestone.
Binance co-CEO Richard Teng was expected to travel to Athens for a meeting and photograph with Mitsotakis as part of the planned announcement, the newspaper reported. Approval from Greece would have given the exchange a regulatory route to provide covered crypto services across the EU through MiCA’s passporting system.
The process changed course before the authorization was issued. The Wall Street Journal reported that Lagarde raised concerns about Binance’s compliance history, including the exchange’s 2023 guilty plea in the United States over anti-money laundering and sanctions violations. Binance agreed to pay roughly $4.3 billion as part of its settlement with U.S. authorities.
Concerns around stablecoins were part of the discussions as well, according to the newspaper. Lagarde has pushed for a stronger European payments system as the ECB develops the digital euro, while dollar denominated stablecoins remain dominant in global crypto markets.
The reported intervention came despite licensing authority under the existing MiCA framework resting with national regulators. Once a crypto asset service provider receives authorization from a competent authority in one member state, the license can be used to provide covered services elsewhere in the bloc.
Binance withdrew its Greek application before the MiCA deadline
Questions around the application had surfaced publicly by mid-June. As crypto.news reported at the time, Binance faced a potential rejection of its Greek application even as the exchange maintained that it had received no formal indication from the HCMC that approval would be denied.
Binance said at the time that it had worked with regulators for around 18 months and submitted what it considered a complete application. Its understanding was that the HCMC had completed its review and considered the filing compliant with MiCA requirements, while the application had undergone review at the ESMA level.
Reports of Lagarde’s involvement emerged soon afterward. The exchange’s Greek licensing route stalled as the July 1 deadline approached, leaving little time to obtain authorization before national transition arrangements expired.
Binance formally withdrew the application on June 24. The company said the decision followed a review of the status and timing of the Greek process and confirmed that it would pursue authorization in another EU member state. It did not identify the jurisdiction.
The exchange told users that their assets would remain safe and accessible while warning that services available to some customers could change depending on their country and account status. Binance continued to say that its long term plan was to secure a MiCA license and maintain operations in Europe.
The withdrawal came days before the July 1 deadline, when crypto firms that had relied on national registrations during MiCA’s transition period needed authorization to continue providing regulated services under the new framework. Binance subsequently suspended several EU services after failing to secure a license in time.
Binance remains without MiCA authorization
The licensing issue has continued beyond the July deadline. Binance was still opening and verifying some European customer accounts more than seven weeks later despite remaining absent from ESMA’s register of authorized crypto providers, according to tests conducted in August.
Some restrictions remained in place during those tests. One account opened through Austria using a Spanish identity document could not deposit euros through bank transfer after a third party provider flagged an address mismatch, although cryptocurrency deposits remained available.
By early September, Binance was continuing to serve some EU customers through regulatory provisions including reverse solicitation, which can permit services when customers approach an overseas provider on their own initiative. Some activity was being routed through an Abu Dhabi entity while the exchange continued seeking European authorization. Binance’s EU operations remained under regulatory attention, with ESMA seeking confirmation that the company was properly winding down activities requiring MiCA authorization.
Binance has not announced a new MiCA authorization since withdrawing its Greek application. Its June 24 update said another member state would be named when the company was ready to disclose its next licensing route.
Crypto World
Crypto trail leads UAE, Sweden to $7.1 million laundering network
Police in the United Arab Emirates and Sweden have arrested seven people after investigators traced cryptocurrency transactions through an international money laundering network that allegedly handled 70 million Swedish krona ($7.1 million) and had financial links to organized crime and contract killings.
Summary
- UAE and Swedish police arrested seven suspects over a network accused of laundering roughly $7.1 million in 10 months.
- Crypto transaction tracing helped investigators uncover financial links to organized crime and contract killings.
- The alleged leader was detained in the UAE while six other suspects were arrested simultaneously in Sweden.
- Swedish authorities have been increasing efforts to seize cryptocurrency and other assets connected to criminal networks.
According to the UAE Ministry of Interior, the suspected leader was arrested in the Emirates while six other alleged members of the network were detained simultaneously in Sweden following coordinated investigations between authorities in both countries.
The suspected leader, a Swedish national, had fled Sweden and was wanted under an Interpol Red Notice. UAE authorities tracked his location after what the ministry described as extensive searches, investigations and monitoring carried out through intelligence sharing with Swedish police.
Investigators said the network moved roughly 70 million Swedish krona over a 10 month period. Cash generated from criminal activity was allegedly collected and redirected to other criminal groups, while cryptocurrencies were used to transfer and move the value of some of the funds.
Crypto transactions exposed links to other crimes
Tracing the network’s cryptocurrency transactions became part of the investigation into where the money was moving and who was connected to it.
The Ministry of Interior said analysis of the crypto transfers and other digital evidence helped investigators identify financial connections with other alleged criminal activity, including organized crime and contract killings. Authorities did not identify the cryptocurrencies involved or disclose the wallets, exchanges or transaction amounts traced during the investigation.
Blockchain transaction trails have increasingly been used in international investigations involving illicit financial networks. In July, crypto.news previously reported that an INTERPOL led operation spanning 97 countries and territories resulted in 5,811 arrests and the interception of $293 million in illicit assets.
Operation First Light, which ran from Jan. 15 through April 30, targeted social engineering scams and the laundering infrastructure supporting them. Authorities identified more than 142,000 victims, blocked over 31,000 bank accounts and used INTERPOL’s Global Rapid Intervention of Payments mechanism to freeze suspicious fiat and cryptocurrency transfers.
One investigation uncovered during the operation involved Thai police tracing a suspected cryptocurrency laundering network that allegedly moved romance scam proceeds through several digital assets and cross chain swaps. A wallet belonging to one suspect had processed more than $122.5 million during a 10 month period, according to INTERPOL.
Another international operation announced in August produced 58 arrests and identified 263 suspects after investigators examined the financial systems used by West African organized crime groups. The eight month operation involved authorities from 22 countries, including the UAE, and focused on bank accounts, digital wallets, shell companies and other infrastructure used to move proceeds from fraud.
Sweden has stepped up crypto seizures
Swedish authorities have already been increasing efforts to identify and seize digital assets linked to suspected criminal activity.
Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer called for more aggressive enforcement against cryptocurrency connected to criminal networks in 2025, asking police, the Swedish Tax Agency and the Enforcement Authority to increase their use of asset seizure powers.
Sweden’s approach followed changes that allowed authorities to seize property when ownership cannot be reasonably explained, even without establishing a direct connection between the property and a specific offense. By mid 2025, authorities had seized 80 million Swedish krona, then worth around $8.4 million, under the rules.
Strömmer specifically called for agencies to improve coordination when targeting high value assets such as cryptocurrency and said it was “time to turn up the pressure.” A 2024 assessment by the Swedish Police Authority and Financial Intelligence Unit had identified some crypto exchanges as services used to move proceeds from drugs, fraud and other criminal activity. Sweden’s crypto crackdown followed recommendations for law enforcement to increase its presence on cryptocurrency trading platforms.
Swedish police have separately documented the use of young recruits in gang violence and contract killings. In May, police said 23 bystanders had been killed and another 30 wounded in gang related shootings over the previous three years, according to the information cited by the UAE ministry.
Criminal groups have used social media and encrypted messaging services to recruit paid killers, including teenagers below the age of criminal responsibility, Swedish authorities said.
UAE and Sweden coordinated simultaneous arrests
Authorities carried out the seven arrests at the same time after investigators established the suspected leader’s location in the UAE.
Brigadier Abdulaziz Al Ahmad, director general of the Federal Criminal Police at the UAE Ministry of Interior, said authorities would “continue to track criminal networks, disrupt their sources of financing, and take legal action against anyone seeking to exploit the country’s territory for criminal activities.”
Cross border cooperation has become a recurring part of investigations involving cryptocurrency and organized financial crime. In May, police from China, the United States and the UAE conducted their first joint crackdown against telecom and online fraud operations in Dubai.
Chinese authorities said the operation dismantled nine fraud sites and resulted in 276 arrests. Investigators said suspects had used social media to establish fake romantic relationships before directing victims toward purported high return cryptocurrency investments.
In the latest Sweden UAE investigation, Anders Wiberg, police commissioner and head of the Swedish Police Authority’s international division, described cooperation with the Emirates as “a key factor in achieving the successful outcome of this case.”
Legal proceedings have been opened against all seven suspects following the coordinated arrests. Authorities have not publicly named the alleged leader or the six people detained in Sweden, nor have they disclosed the specific charges each suspect faces.
Crypto World
Ethereum price breakout could open a move toward $2,800
Ethereum price recovered toward $2,500 on Sep. 18 as buyers defended support near $2,400, but daily and 4-hour charts show that the $2,550 area remains the main barrier to a larger breakout.
Summary
- Ethereum price rose about 3% in 24 hours, trading close to $2,500.
- Daily Bollinger Bands place immediate resistance at $2,549 and support near $2,467.
- 4-hour momentum has improved, but the Supertrend remains bearish below $2,527.
- Liquidation clusters between $2,630 and $2,650 could attract price if ETH clears resistance.
Ethereum (ETH) price traded around $2,500 at the time of writing, up nearly 3% over the previous 24 hours. Its intraday range stretched from approximately $2,427 to $2,518.
The rebound followed a decline toward $2,385 earlier in the week. Buyers have since pushed ETH back above $2,500, but the move has not produced a confirmed breakout from the range that has controlled price since late August.
US macro and regulatory conditions also remain mixed. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points this week amid persistent inflation concerns, while the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks have nevertheless rebounded since the events, suggesting both outcomes were at least partly reflected in prices before the decisions. Ethereum’s next move may therefore depend more heavily on whether buyers can convert the latest bounce into a technical breakout.
Ethereum price approaches the upper Bollinger Band
The daily chart shows ETH rising from an opening price near $2,447 to approximately $2,505. The session recorded a high of $2,522 and a low of $2,437.

Ethereum is now trading above the Bollinger Band midpoint at $2,467. That level could serve as the first dynamic support if the recovery loses momentum.
The upper Bollinger Band stands at about $2,549, placing it close to the psychological $2,550 resistance. ETH has repeatedly struggled around this region since its sharp August advance.
A daily close above $2,550 would move price outside the upper part of its recent range. The next visible resistance sits around $2,600, followed by a broader supply zone between $2,700 and $2,800.
Failure to clear $2,550 would keep ETH inside its existing consolidation. Under that scenario, the Bollinger midpoint near $2,467 would become the first level to watch, followed by the lower band around $2,385.
Daily relative strength remains positive but is not overextended. The relative strength index stands at 58.35, while its signal line is slightly higher at 59.74. A reading above 50 points to stronger buying momentum, though the RSI’s position below its signal line shows that the breakout has not yet gained full confirmation.
4-hour momentum improves below $2,527
Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a recovery from the Sep. 16 sell-off, when price briefly moved below $2,400. ETH has since formed a series of higher short-term lows and returned to the upper end of its range.

The Bull Bear Power indicator has climbed to 85.09, reflecting renewed strength among buyers. Positive histogram bars have also expanded during the latest rebound.
The 4-hour Supertrend remains bearish, however, with its resistance line positioned at $2,526.61. Ethereum must close above that level before the indicator changes in favor of buyers.
A successful move above the Supertrend would place the daily Bollinger resistance near $2,549 within reach. Because the two levels sit only about $23 apart, the $2,527–$2,550 region represents a wider resistance zone rather than one precise price.
Support on the 4-hour chart has risen to approximately $2,442. A break below that level would weaken the higher-low structure and expose the $2,400–$2,385 area again.
ETH liquidation map points to $2,630–$2,650
CoinGlass’s one-week liquidation heatmap shows several leverage clusters surrounding Ethereum’s current price.

The closest liquidity is concentrated around $2,490–$2,520, matching the area where ETH is currently trading. Larger concentrations appear above price near $2,630 and $2,650, with the latter forming the brightest band on the chart.
Liquidation heatmaps indicate where leveraged positions may face forced closure, but they do not predict that price will reach those levels. If ETH breaks through $2,550, the overhead clusters could add volatility as short positions come under pressure.
Liquidity also appears below the market around $2,440 and $2,410. Those areas overlap with the 4-hour Supertrend support and the broader base formed during the past several sessions.
A rejection at $2,550 followed by a loss of $2,440 could therefore accelerate movement toward $2,400. Conversely, a confirmed breakout may open a path toward $2,600 and the larger liquidation pools above it.
Analysts watch $2,550 for a larger breakout
Pseudoanonymous trader Batman described Ethereum’s structure as a “rally-base-rally” setup, citing the consolidation that formed after ETH’s August advance. His chart places the base near $2,385 and the top of the range around $2,550–$2,600.
Analyst Ted Pillows also identified $2,550 as the immediate resistance. He argued that a weekly close above the level could support an advance toward $3,000, though his chart places another major resistance zone near $2,800.
Both outlooks depend on ETH closing above its current ceiling. Until then, price remains inside a range bounded by support around $2,385–$2,440 and resistance between $2,527 and $2,550.
The short-term setup favors buyers while ETH remains above $2,467. A close above $2,550 would strengthen the bullish case, while a reversal below $2,442 would shift attention back to $2,400 and $2,385.
Crypto World
U.S. May Have Committed War Crimes in Iran, U.N. Report Says
On March 31, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) refuted claims that the U.S. struck Lamerd and said U.S. forces did not launch strikes in Lamerd or within 30 miles of the city on Feb. 28.
CENTCOM said that the missile visible in video footage was too long to be a PrSM, and suggested it was instead an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.
“U.S. forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,” CENTCOM said on March 31. No formal investigation into the alleged strike has been announced since.
In May, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper told Congress that the military was investigating only one case involving possible U.S.-caused civilian deaths: the Minab school strike.
Iran may have committed crimes against humanity in deadly crackdown
The mission also found grounds to believe that the Iranian government committed crimes against humanity during their “violent” crackdown on mass protests beginning late December. Iranian security forces killed 3,038 people and injured 25,000, according to official counts, although the report said the toll is likely higher. At least 221 children, including two two-year-olds, were killed in the crackdown, the report said, citing a human rights organization.
Crypto World
The Earthshot Prize Is Embracing the Idea of Positive Tipping Points
At a time when companies are racing to deliver commercial fusion energy and promising a new generation of geothermal wells across the U.S., three-wheel electric vehicles may not seem like the most exciting clean energy technology. But in India, three-wheel vehicles are an essential part of daily transportation and account for up to a quarter of motorized trips in many cities.
The majority of new full-size passenger auto rickshaws sold in India are now electric, according to registration data, a striking milestone given that 10 years ago they were barely off the ground. Initially, scaling took a mix of policy, infrastructure build out, and innovative financing; now, the market has taken on a life of its own. “Once you cross 50%, electric becomes the dominant technology,” says Suman Mishra, the CEO of Mahindra Last Mile Mobility, a key player in the market.
The development underscores an idea that is gaining currency in some climate circles: sometimes technologies that matter most are not the futuristic breakthroughs waiting to scale but the familiar ones where adoption begins to reinforce itself.
That shift sits at the heart of a new framework the Earthshot Prize is using this year to evaluate climate solutions. Rather than simply picking the climate solution with the most impressive technology, the judges looked for ways to recognize and advance “positive tipping points” that will unlock transformative changes beyond any individual company or project. “We know exactly the things that we’re looking for to try to tip these global systems in the right direction,” says Jason Knauf, CEO of the Earthshot Prize.
The pattern is visible across the finalist list. Mahindra Last Mile Mobility, one of this year’s Earthshot finalists announced on Sept. 18, has not just built affordable electric three-wheelers but also helped facilitate the infrastructure and policy necessary for them to take off. Another finalist, the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance, or ZEMBA for short, has sought to coordinate demand for low-carbon shipping fuel from customers that ship goods. And Yellowstone to Yukon restores habitat corridors across North America, which then unlocks feedbacks that restore the underlying ecological ecosystem.
The concept of climate tipping points entered the vernacular nearly two decades ago to describe some of the most alarming risks posed by climate change. At the time, tipping points referred to the thresholds that, when crossed, would trigger a chain reaction of often irreversible damage—think of Antarctic ice sheet collapse leading to sea level rise or the destruction of the Amazon releasing stored carbon dioxide.
More recently, scientists have sought to reframe tipping points, showing that positive developments can have tipping points, too. Cheap energy leads to a rewiring of economies. Social movements unlock widespread policy changes. “The tipping point is where you have strong amplification within the system,” says Tim Lenton, a professor of the University of Exeter who has written seminal papers on the tipping points concept.
The reframe comes at an important moment for the climate narrative. With increasingly bleak climate news, positive tipping points offer grounded optimism about how things may change. That was a key logic for Earthshot’s embrace of tipping points.
“We don’t think you can just leave people with the negatives and the warnings,” says Knauf. “We think we have a responsibility to show them” where positive action is possible.
But the positive tipping point framework is also useful from a capital allocation perspective. As companies cut costs and governments look for ways to trim public spending, tipping points offer a way to identify what Lenton describes as the best “bang for your buck” for climate investment dollars.
In some cases, that means supporting initiatives outside the typical wheelhouse of climate technology startups. ZEMBA, for example, works with the customers who would like to reduce their shipping footprint with low-carbon fuel but cannot afford to do so on their own, thereby helping create a demand signal. That’s a coordinated effort that competitors rarely engage in. “Once those markets are spinning, we will fade into the mist,” says Ingrid Irigoyen, the organization’s CEO.
Such an approach makes sense for governments evaluating how they spend their public dollars. It also makes sense for pension funds and institutional investors concerned with the long-term economic implications of climate change. With relatively few dollars, certain investments will generate a long-tail of positive climate outcomes.
In a future world where climate impact is an important investment metric, tipping points may be a useful tool. For those interested, the Earthshot finalists may offer a useful place to start.
Crypto World
Dragonfly’s Qureshi urges ending Zcash dev fund after 2028
A debate inside the Zcash ecosystem is intensifying as the protocol’s development fund continues to grow in value. Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi has argued that the Zcash developer fund should be wound down after it expires under the current rules in 2028—calling it unnecessary to continue once the remaining work can be covered.
According to ZecStats, the Zcash development fund held 63,962 ZEC tokens at press time, worth roughly $95 million. Qureshi said the fund is large enough to support remaining development and warned that as it approaches a potential $100 million size, it could become “politicized.” The proposal has sparked disagreement over whether the fund should stay intact and, crucially, over who should ultimately govern it.
Key takeaways
- Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi says the Zcash development fund should be treated as the “final” one and wound down when current rules expire in 2028.
- ZecStats data shows the fund holds 63,962 ZEC, valued at about $95 million at the time of reporting.
- Backers argue the fund remains important in an environment shaped by rapidly advancing AI and evolving cyber threats.
- The dispute isn’t only about funding size—it also centers on whether governance should be token-holder-driven, delegated, or hybrid.
- Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox has pointed to the role of the Community Grants Committee, clarifying it represents about 40% of the fund.
Why the fund is at the center of a bigger governance fight
The Zcash development fund is designed to accrue protocol-level resources specifically for development. It earns 0.1875 ZEC per block—described as representing 12% of the block subsidy under the NU6 upgrade. The balance is held outside regular circulation and can only move via governance disbursements.
As the ZEC token has rallied, the economic weight of those locked tokens has drawn increased attention. Qureshi’s argument is rooted in the idea that a larger, still-runnable fund can attract more contentious political bargaining, even if the underlying purpose remains technical and constructive.
In his view, continuing the fund past its natural end point risks making development spending a proxy for broader community power struggles rather than a disciplined mechanism for funding specific engineering work. That concern frames why his “final Dev Fund” proposal matters: the discussion is moving from whether development money is needed to how it should be handled and who gets to decide.
Competing views on whether Zcash needs ongoing development funding
Not everyone agrees that winding down is the right step. Paradigm founder Matt Huang publicly pushed back, arguing that the fund has special value “in this age of AI cyber capabilities” and rapid progress in quantum-related work. His point suggests that the technical baseline for maintaining Zcash may require sustained investment even if the debate over governance becomes uncomfortable.
Other participants have raised concerns from a different direction. Maxime Desalle, an investment analyst at Winklevoss Capital, suggested the community should “completely get rid” of the development fund as a way to eliminate governance disputes entirely. Desalle has previously argued that a fund of this structure could harm Zcash’s security while reproducing governance inefficiencies he likened to the dependencies and bureaucracy seen in welfare states.
These positions highlight a core tension: one side views the fund as a necessary buffer for long-term protocol security and innovation, while the other sees it as a source of governance friction that could introduce new risk profiles as it accumulates value.
Who should control the lockbox: token voting, delegation, or hybrid governance
Beyond the question of whether the fund should exist, participants are also disagreeing on governance design. Qureshi said control should not shift toward “pure token holder voting.” Instead, he supported a partial model in which token holders elect temporary councils—aiming to keep legitimacy while reducing day-to-day unpredictability.
Huang aligned with the view that purely token-holder-driven governance could create “unpredictability” that may limit long-term trust in Zcash as a monetary asset. He proposed a hybrid approach combining token involvement with other governance mechanisms, suggesting that legitimacy and stability both need to be engineered rather than assumed.
At least one critique comes from the opposite end: Desalle argued for removing the fund altogether, which would remove the governance problem by eliminating the object that triggers it. That framing effectively treats governance risk as inseparable from the existence of the lockbox—whereas the hybrid camp sees governance redesign as a solution.
Clarifications from Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox
As the discussion broadened, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox weighed in on the role of the Community Grants Committee. In an earlier post dated Sept. 1, he cited the committee as one of the main reasons Zcash has “survived and grown” over time.
Wilcox later clarified that the Community Grants Committee represents only 40% of the development fund. That detail matters for the argument about how “politicized” the funds may become: if a significant share of the money is already channeled through a defined committee structure, then supporters of the fund may argue that governance disputes don’t affect all disbursements equally—while opponents may still contend that the remaining portion could be vulnerable to shifting coalition dynamics.
The back-and-forth also underlines that the community is not simply choosing between “fund” and “no fund.” It is deciding how different parts of a single mechanism should be distributed, evaluated, and audited through governance.
What to watch next
With current rules pointing to an expiration in 2028, the immediate question for Zcash participants is whether discussions will converge on a specific governance model—such as Qureshi’s partial or Huang’s hybrid approach—or whether the community will push toward a more radical outcome like full elimination. Readers should watch how proposals address both disbursement structure and stability, because the dispute is ultimately about protecting Zcash’s long-term development process while maintaining trust as the fund’s market value grows.
Crypto World
Kevin O’Leary buys crypto again as he eyes next blockchain adoption wave
Kevin O’Leary has returned to buying new cryptocurrency positions for the next market cycle while watching for a major stock exchange to adopt blockchain infrastructure, a development he expects could influence which network gains institutional traction.
Summary
- Kevin O’Leary is buying new crypto positions as he prepares for the next market cycle and looks for networks gaining institutional adoption.
- O’Leary said the first major stock exchange to adopt a blockchain could become a watershed moment for the crypto industry.
- O’Leary does not expect the CLARITY Act to pass before the midterms but believes digital asset tax policy will keep regulation on the agenda.
- O’Leary sees Bitcoin potentially accounting for 1% to 3% of institutional alternative asset allocations.
According to comments made to The Block at the Avalanche Summit in New York, the O’Leary Ventures chairman said he is placing new bets as he tries to identify which blockchain could gain widespread use and where that adoption will emerge.
“I’m back in the saddle buying new positions, putting my bets on for this next cycle,” O’Leary said.
His investment approach is focused less on picking individual crypto assets in isolation and more on determining which underlying network could become a standard for a major industry. Conversations with executives have yet to produce a clear answer, he said, because companies across different sectors are considering different blockchains.
O’Leary said he can speak directly with chief executives about the networks their companies are evaluating, but “none of them are saying the same thing.”
O’Leary sees exchange adoption as a watershed moment
A major stock exchange could provide one of the clearest signals, according to O’Leary, who described the first exchange to adopt a blockchain as a potential “watershed moment” for the crypto industry.
Once an exchange settles on a network, companies and financial institutions that interact with the venue could have an incentive to work with infrastructure that meets the same technical and compliance requirements. O’Leary presented that scenario as one possible route through which a particular blockchain could gain wider use.
Traditional exchanges are already moving parts of their infrastructure onchain. The New York Stock Exchange has been developing onchain settlement infrastructure for tokenized securities, with NYSE President Lynn Martin saying in August that work was continuing on a dedicated digital trading platform.
Intercontinental Exchange, NYSE’s parent company, later agreed to invest in tZERO and license its blockchain patents as the companies work on tokenized securities infrastructure. The planned platform is designed to support round the clock trading and immediate blockchain settlement, though regulatory approvals are still required.
Nasdaq has taken a separate route. Earlier in September, Nasdaq Ventures agreed to invest $100 million in Kraken parent Payward at a $21 billion valuation as the companies expanded their work on tokenized equities and settlement. Nasdaq and Payward expect Nasdaq Equity Tokens to launch in the second quarter of 2027.
Regulators have been preparing for more securities activity to move onchain as well. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently granted tokenized securities venues five years of conditional relief to trade eligible tokenized U.S. stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Eligible tokens must provide holders with the same rights and privileges as conventional shares under the five year exemption.
Crypto regulation remains on O’Leary’s agenda
O’Leary expects U.S. lawmakers to return to crypto market structure legislation despite the latest setback for the CLARITY Act.
The Senate failed to advance the bill this week after a cloture motion fell short of the 60 votes needed to begin formal debate. Crypto.news previously reported that the procedural vote failed after receiving 50 votes to 49.
O’Leary said he does not expect the legislation to pass before the midterm elections, but argued that work on digital asset taxation makes continued regulatory action likely.
“If you’re going to provide a tax policy on this asset, you want more regulation, not less,” he said.
His comments came as Congress made progress on a separate digital asset tax package. The House Ways and Means Committee advanced the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act in a 38 to 5 vote on Sept. 16, moving the proposal toward possible consideration by the full House.
The crypto tax legislation includes an exception for qualifying blockchain network and transaction fees of up to $10, alongside proposed rules covering wash sales, stablecoins, crypto lending, mining, staking and broker reporting.
Seven Senate Democrats who opposed the CLARITY Act cloture motion have since indicated that negotiations are not over. Their effort leaves open the possibility of further talks, though the failed procedural vote has kept the bill from entering formal Senate debate.
O’Leary’s current position differs from the timeline he gave earlier in 2026. In January, he expressed hope that U.S. crypto market structure legislation could clear Congress before the midterms. By June, he was arguing that legislation could become an important catalyst for institutional participation, particularly among pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Bitcoin allocation could reach 1% to 3%
For Bitcoin, O’Leary framed potential institutional exposure against allocations already made to another alternative asset, gold.
He said Bitcoin could eventually account for between 1% and 3% of alternative asset allocations, using institutional gold holdings as a comparison. His upper range is consistent with comments he made earlier this year when discussing how much Bitcoin large investors may be willing to hold.
In February, O’Leary said some institutions were reluctant to move beyond roughly 3% Bitcoin exposure because of concerns surrounding quantum computing and the network’s long term security. Developers have been discussing proposals intended to reduce Bitcoin’s exposure to future quantum attacks, while the risk has become part of the institutional debate around allocation limits.
O’Leary remains focused on investments outside digital assets as well, particularly the infrastructure needed to support artificial intelligence.
Instead of concentrating his AI investments on individual models, he said he is investing in the power infrastructure required to run them. Projects cited by O’Leary include investments in Norway, Finland, Alberta and Utah, along with exposure to uranium as demand for electricity from data centers grows.
Crypto World
Dragonfly’s Qureshi Calls for End to Zcash Dev Fund After 2028
Crypto-focused venture capital firm Dragonfly’s managing partner, Haseeb Qureshi, proposed winding down the Zcash developer fund after it expires under current rules in 2028.
“I’m of the opinion that this should be the final Dev Fund,” wrote Qureshi in a Friday X post, arguing that the fund is large enough to fund remaining work on Zcash and that it risks being “politicized” as it approaches $100 million in value.
The Zcash development fund held 63,962 Zcash (ZEC) tokens at press time, worth about $95 million, according to ZecStats.
The remarks follow a broader industry debate that stemmed from the fund’s increasing value, following the ZEC token’s rally. Others argued that Zcash should maintain its development fund. Paradigm founder Matt Huang argued in a Wednesday X post that the fund is particularly important “in this age of AI cyber capabilities” and rapid quantum progress.

Zcash pools, including the dev fund, also known as the lockbox. Source: ZecStats
The ZEC development fund is a protocol development fund that accrues 0.1875 ZEC tokens per block, representing 12% of the block subsidy under the NU6 upgrade. Its balance sits outside circulation until governance disbursement.
Related: Zcash holders back 25-second blocks, vote to keep ZEC halving schedule
Industry split over who should control the ZEC development fund?
Industry watchers are also debating who should control the development fund. Dragonfly’s Haseeb said that the fund’s control shouldn’t move toward “pure token holder voting,” but showed support for a partial model, under which token holders would elect temporary councils.
Huang agreed with this view, adding that pure token holder governance may introduce “unpredictability that could limit long-term trust as a monetary asset” and proposed a hybrid model combining additional forms of governance.
Maxime Desalle, investment analyst at Winklevoss Capital, suggested that the Zcash community “completely get rid” of the development fund, which would solve all the governance disputes surrounding it, writing in a Thursday X post.
In a previous post on Sept. 9, Desalle argued that the fund may hurt the security of Zcash while recreating the dependencies and bureaucracies that many welfare states suffer from.
In a Sept. 1 X post, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said that the Zcash Community Grants Committee was among the main reasons that Zcash “has survived and grown to where it is today.” On Sept. 14, Wilcox clarified that the committee only accounts for 40% of the development fund.
Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions
Crypto World
Grayscale Sees Limited Bitcoin Impact From 25-Basis-Point Hike
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, and Grayscale Research says the move is unlikely to drive major changes in Bitcoin price and the crypto markets. Grayscale’s central question is whether the increase is an isolated adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle.
Grayscale’s argument rests on a policy gap. The firm characterizes the latest increase as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical change in official policy. In its view, the difference is not simply the size of a single rate move, but the scale and duration of the policy path that follows it.
Grayscale contrasts the decision with the Fed’s campaign from March 2022 through July 2023. During that period, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 550 basis points to contain inflation. Grayscale says that sustained tightening probably weighed on Bitcoin and other digital assets during the last bear market.
The latest move is smaller in scale, and Grayscale expects one or two additional rate hikes in 2026. The firm’s assessment is therefore focused on whether those increases remain limited rather than whether rates rise at all. A short sequence of adjustments and a sustained tightening campaign can have different implications for capital allocation.
Earn $50 and Enter $300K Prize Draw on EdgeX
Testing the 1997 Analogy
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, describes the latest decision as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cyclical policy shift. Grayscale also says it doubts that the one or two rate hikes expected for 2026 will lead to much change in capital allocation.
Grayscale’s key takeaway is that the 25-basis-point hike, together with a potential second increase this year, is unlikely to drive major shifts in digital-asset markets in the firm’s view. The qualification is important: the analysis presents a view on the likely policy pattern and market response, not a guarantee about crypto prices.
Grayscale’s historical reference point is March 1997, when the Greenspan Fed made what the firm describes as an analogous one-off hike, and the Nasdaq bull market continued. The comparison supports Grayscale’s view that a limited rate adjustment need not have the same market effect as a prolonged effort to reset borrowing costs and financial conditions.

The 1997 parallel does not establish that Bitcoin is insulated from interest rates. Instead, it illustrates Grayscale’s distinction between an isolated move and a longer tightening sequence. If policy were to develop into a sustained series of hikes, the 2022–2023 period would provide a more relevant comparison under the firm’s framework.
Contemporaneous reporting described a limited immediate reaction from Bitcoin and other major crypto assets after the Fed’s decision. That response is consistent with Grayscale’s view that the rate increase itself was not a major market disruption, while leaving open the larger question of how markets respond to future policy signals.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
Where Higher Rates Actually Bite Bitcoin Price?
Grayscale does not argue that higher rates leave crypto unaffected. Rather, it says the impact can differ across the digital-asset ecosystem. The firm points to stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether, which it says earn higher revenues when cash interest rates rise.
Grayscale also says higher rates on tokenized bonds and money-market funds could drive flows into onchain capital. Its broader point is that crypto is diverse: higher rates can affect particular assets and businesses differently, much as rate-sensitive sectors can diverge in traditional finance. Under that view, Bitcoin and other parts of the digital-asset market need not respond to rate changes in the same way.
Bitcoin current price action also gives the 1997 comparison some relevance, particularly if investors are watching for another sharp volatility phase. BTC has struggled to sustain upside momentum, leaving the market vulnerable to further selling if key support levels fail.
Still, the analogy should be treated cautiously, since Bitcoin’s market structure and investor base differ significantly from those of traditional markets in 1997.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold its major support zones will be important for determining whether the market can stabilize. A recovery above recent resistance would weaken the bearish interpretation, while another breakdown could reinforce comparisons with previous periods of broader market stress.
Trade Bitcoin on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop
The post Grayscale Sees Limited Bitcoin Impact From 25-Basis-Point Hike appeared first on Cryptonews.
-
Fashion7 days agoWeekend Open Thread – Corporette.com
-
Tech5 days agoThe Latest Weird Thing to Play Doom Is the Mapped-Out Brain of a Fruit Fly
-
Crypto World3 days agoKraken Lets xStocks Holders Earn Yield Through DeFi
-
Crypto World2 days agoUS Charges Robinhood Engineers Over Crypto Listing Trades
-
Crypto World6 days agoCan AI Build a Startup in 72 Hours? Elon Musk's Team Will Livestream the Test
-
News Videos7 days agoFacing Financial Fears
-
Entertainment7 days agoNews Specials, Movies, Shows, More
-
Crypto World4 days agoElon Musk Drops a Bombshell: Grok 5 Could Be the AGI Breakthrough
-
Business5 days agoRivals Sam Altman and Elon Musk Rally Behind Dario Amodei’s Call for a Slowdown in AI Development
-
NewsBeat4 days ago‘Sick conspiracy’: Trump says only guardrails AI needs is ‘a strong and smart (High IQ!) president’ in all-caps rant
-
Crypto World5 days agoNew Tesla Roadster Uses SpaceX Tech. Will It Impact the Stock Price?
-
Crypto World6 days agoRobinhood Chain Never Stopped But its Blobs Did Stop Reaching Ethereum For 14 Minutes
-
Crypto World2 days agoWhat Is the Status of the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks? Here's What Both Sides Are Saying
-
Entertainment7 days agoNew Horror Movie Officially Earns a Rare Stephen King Recommendation
-
Crypto World3 days agoNVIDIA Analysis: Attempted Rising Wedge Breakout Amid Pressure on the AI Sector
-
Business6 days agoMarvell: Most Potent Setup Of The AI Factory Decade
-
Crypto World4 days agoDOJ Seeks to Seize $61M in Iran Oil Funds From Binance Accounts It Vouched For
-
Crypto World6 days agoBitcoin ETFs lose $462.7M as Ethereum funds gain $196.9M
-
Crypto World4 days ago3 Token Unlocks to Watch in the Third Week of September 2026
-
Crypto World4 days agoRevolut Attackers Warn of Ongoing Daily Customer Data Leaks

You must be logged in to post a comment Login