Key takeaways

• AVAX surged nearly 50% in one week, reaching an eight-month high of $10.82 on Sunday.
• Institutional tokenization developments involving ICE, New York Life Investment Management, Aave and Janus Henderson have boosted sentiment.
• Avalanche’s Helicon upgrade is scheduled for Sept. 22 and will reduce the minimum staking period from 14 days to 48 hours.

Avalanche’s AVAX token has climbed nearly 50% over the past week, reaching an eight-month high of $10.82 on Sunday as institutional tokenization developments renewed demand for the cryptocurrency.

One of the rally’s leading catalysts involves Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. ICE has reportedly spent about a year testing Avalanche as it explores infrastructure for round-the-clock trading of tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds.

ICE has not selected Avalanche or announced a commercial partnership. However, Ava Labs President Charley Cooper said the company remains actively engaged with the network.

The development has strengthened expectations that Avalanche could play a role in bringing traditional financial assets onchain.

New York Life plans tokenized fund on Avalanche

New York Life Investment Management provided another institutional catalyst by announcing plans to launch its first tokenized fund on Avalanche through Centrifuge.

The offering will bring the firm’s U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Strategy onchain, giving eligible investors access to exposure tied to high-yield corporate debt.

Other financial companies are also expanding their involvement with Avalanche. Aave is developing an institutional real-world asset lending market on the network, while Paxos has added support for AVAX and USDC.

Asset manager Janus Henderson has also joined Avalanche as a validator, further strengthening the network’s institutional credentials.

Together, these developments reinforce Avalanche’s positioning as a blockchain for tokenized funds, credit products and other real-world assets.

Avalanche’s upcoming Helicon upgrade provides an additional potential catalyst for AVAX.

Scheduled for Sept. 22, the upgrade will reduce the minimum staking lockup period from 14 days to 48 hours. The change could make staking more flexible by allowing participants to commit their tokens for substantially shorter periods.

Helicon will also modify validator requirements and reward structures. Lowering the time commitment may encourage more users to participate in network validation, although the full impact will depend on how validators respond to the revised economics.

The timing of the upgrade, alongside growing institutional interest, has added momentum to AVAX’s recovery.

Falling wedge points to $19–$20 target

AVAX’s weekly chart is showing a potential long-term recovery setup after the price rebounded from the lower boundary of a large falling wedge that has developed since its 2021 peak.

Falling wedges are generally viewed as bullish reversal patterns when the price rebounds from the lower trendline and eventually breaks above descending resistance.

The latest recovery started around the $5.80–$6.50 region, a historical support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers. AVAX subsequently climbed above its 20-week Exponential Moving Average near $7.97, strengthening the case for a broader recovery within the wedge.

If the rebound continues, the next major upside target lies between $19 and $20. The wedge’s descending upper trendline is converging in this area with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $19.86.

A move from approximately $10.50 to that resistance zone would produce an estimated gain of 85%–90%.

Before AVAX can approach $19, it must overcome resistance around its 50-week EMA. A rejection from this moving average could slow the recovery or send the token back toward lower support levels.

The broader bullish setup would weaken if AVAX loses the wedge’s lower trendline and falls decisively below $5.80. That level currently serves as the primary invalidation point for the recovery thesis.

AVAX’s outlook therefore remains constructive while it holds above the reclaimed 20-week EMA and maintains the wedge’s lower support. 

However, the projected move toward $19–$20 remains conditional on the token clearing intermediate resistance and sustaining institutional-driven demand.

Saudi Arabia has ended its participation in the China linked mBridge digital currency platform after completing a central bank digital currency trial in May 2025, removing the kingdom from a cross border payment project that has faced scrutiny in Washington over its potential to reduce reliance on the dollar.

According to a Financial Times report, the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, confirmed it was no longer a participating member of mBridge after finishing its planned proof of concept on May 13, 2025.

SAMA said its departure was part of its original plan for testing the technology. The central bank initially joined mBridge as an observing member in 2023 under the Bank for International Settlements before taking part in the development of the platform’s minimum viable product and conducting its proof of concept in 2024.

“As planned, SAMA successfully completed its mBridge [proof of concept] on 13 May 2025. Following the completion of the PoC, SAMA is no longer a participating member of mBridge,” the central bank said.

Saudi Arabia had become an active participant in the project in 2024 alongside China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. The BIS, which had helped develop the platform, left the project in October that year.

Saudi Arabia says mBridge exit followed its original plan

Questions over the Saudi withdrawal have centered on whether Riyadh faced pressure from Washington because of US concerns surrounding payment systems that could operate with less dependence on the dollar and conventional correspondent banking networks.

A person familiar with the matter told the FT that it would be “inaccurate to draw any wider inference” from SAMA’s decision because the central bank’s involvement in mBridge had been limited from the start.

Another person familiar with the situation said SAMA no longer wanted to be publicly involved in the project but continued to engage more discreetly.

The distinction comes as mBridge has drawn political attention in the United States. The blockchain based system allows participating central banks to transact using their own digital currencies, enabling payment and foreign exchange settlement without requiring the dollar to serve as the intermediary currency in every transaction.

Daleep Singh, who served as White House deputy national security adviser for international economics under former President Joe Biden, warned in 2025 that China could gain considerable influence over standards governing privacy, security, interoperability and enforcement of US sanctions through the platform.

President Donald Trump has separately threatened BRICS countries with tariffs if they pursue alternatives intended to replace the US dollar in international trade.

Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University professor and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told the FT that many US allies viewed systems such as mBridge as economically useful because they could reduce excessive dependence on the dollar dominated international financial system.

At the same time, those countries remained sensitive to US objections to projects that could reduce the dollar’s role or expand the use of China’s renminbi in international finance, Prasad said.

mBridge is moving toward commercial use

mBridge was developed as a wholesale CBDC system for direct cross border payments between participating financial institutions. Its blockchain infrastructure allows central banks and commercial banks to conduct payment and foreign exchange settlement through digital versions of national currencies.

China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE were among the original central bank participants, with the BIS Innovation Hub initially involved in developing the infrastructure.

The project reached its minimum viable product stage in 2024, allowing participating jurisdictions to move beyond earlier experimental work toward real value transactions.

As crypto.news previously reported, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Lu Lei said in October 2024 that jurisdictions participating in mBridge would need to respect each other’s monetary rules while maintaining a balance between their rights and responsibilities.

Lu said the system should reduce barriers and costs in cross border payments without creating new geopolitical or compliance costs. Former PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at the time that mBridge’s relationship with the US dollar would depend not only on technological development but on policy decisions in Western countries.

The BIS left the initiative later in October 2024. Agustín Carstens, its general manager at the time, said the institution had “graduated out” of the project because participating central banks were capable of continuing the work themselves.

Carstens rejected suggestions that the BIS departure meant mBridge had failed or that its decision had been driven by political considerations. The FT separately reported that Washington had pressured the institution to withdraw.

Macau has since joined the network, extending mBridge beyond its earlier group of participating monetary authorities. The system went live in Macau in June 2026, giving local banks access to the cross border CBDC infrastructure.

China keeps expanding cross border digital yuan payments

China has continued building other channels for international digital yuan settlement alongside mBridge.

In July, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China completed the first digital yuan payment between China and Singapore through the upgraded Digital Currency Express platform. The transaction settled nearly 10 million yuan in import shipping fees, with the funds reaching the Singapore recipient on the same day.

The Digital Currency Express system is operated through China’s international digital yuan infrastructure and supports both centralized and blockchain based settlement. Its 2026 upgrade combined earlier cross border payment, blockchain service and digital asset systems into one network using ISO 20022 messaging standards.

ICBC later expanded its use of the infrastructure for international payments, while its Inner Mongolia branch completed a 220 million yuan transfer to Hong Kong through the multilateral CBDC bridge.

Chinese authorities have been extending the digital yuan network domestically as well. The PBOC added eight commercial banks to the e CNY operating network in August, taking the number of service operators to 30.

Official figures cited when China revised its digital yuan framework showed the currency had processed 3.48 billion transactions by November 2025. Beginning in January 2026, verified digital yuan wallets were permitted to earn interest as authorities moved the currency beyond its earlier electronic cash model.

China’s central bank has kept cross border payments among the areas under development. Wang Xin, director general of the PBOC Research Bureau, said in June that stablecoins could take on a larger role in international payments while calling for closer monitoring of their effect on payment infrastructure and the international monetary system.

Wang called for continued international cooperation on CBDCs as central banks test new settlement systems, while the PBOC has been monitoring stablecoin use as another potential channel for international transactions.

Saudi Arabia had remained among the jurisdictions named in China’s cross border digital yuan plans even after SAMA says its mBridge proof of concept ended. Chinese authorities outlined plans in 2026 to expand cross border e CNY pilots involving Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while SAMA’s newly disclosed statement places the end of its formal mBridge participation on May 13, 2025.

Binance has warned iPhone and iPad users to check whether they have installed FomoPeek after security researchers linked versions 1.1 and 1.2 of the app to malicious code capable of exposing private keys, seed phrases and other data stored across affected devices.

According to Binance, the warning follows a security incident disclosed by the community and findings from blockchain security firms including SlowMist, which found that the affected FomoPeek versions could exploit vulnerabilities in Apple’s iOS operating system and obtain high level privileges on a device.

The malware targets the device itself instead of a specific crypto application, Binance said. A successful attack could therefore expose information held by other apps, including login credentials, chat records and files alongside cryptocurrency wallet data.

Users who have installed FomoPeek and run iOS 26.x or an earlier version should remove the application, avoid reinstalling it and update their operating system to the latest available version, according to Binance.

Self custody wallet users were advised to use a separate device that has never had FomoPeek installed to create a new wallet and transfer their assets to the new address. Binance asked anyone who detects unusual asset activity to preserve the affected device and relevant evidence before contacting customer support.

FomoPeek malware could escape the iOS sandbox

SlowMist’s investigation provided more detail on how the malicious versions operated after the security firm received multiple reports of stolen assets involving private key exposure.

Working with the OKX security team, researchers found two modules inside FomoPeek versions 1.1 and 1.2 that were unrelated to the application’s advertised functions. One contained an iOS kernel exploitation framework equipped with eight exploit methods, allowing it to select an attack method based on the device model and operating system version.

The framework’s declared coverage included iOS 12.0 through 18.7.2 and iOS 26.0 through 26.1, according to the researchers. SlowMist said older versions of iOS generally faced a higher level of risk.

Once an exploit succeeded, the malicious code could escape the iOS sandbox, decrypt Keychain data and access files belonging to other applications. Such access could expose private keys, wallet recovery phrases, account credentials, conversations and locally stored files.

Researchers found that the malicious code communicated with infrastructure unrelated to FomoPeek’s public services and could receive remote instructions. Analysis of its communications showed that operators could control exploit execution and how frequently the process ran.

Historical versions obtained through the official App Store showed that FomoPeek 1.0 did not contain the two malicious frameworks. Version 1.1, build 105, introduced them on Sept. 9, while version 1.2, build 110, retained the code after its Sept. 12 release.

Version 1.3, build 111, removed both frameworks on Sept. 17, according to the security analysis. The affected 1.1 and 1.2 versions had been distributed through Apple’s official App Store instead of third party or re-signed installations.

Crypto wallet malware has repeatedly targeted mobile devices

Mobile devices have remained a target for malware designed to obtain crypto wallet credentials. In July, crypto.news previously reported on the SparkKitty mobile spyware, which could collect images from infected iOS and Android devices and send them to servers controlled by attackers.

Kaspersky had initially detailed the malware in June 2025 after finding infected applications distributed through Apple’s App Store, Google Play and unofficial channels. SparkKitty sought wallet recovery phrases, passwords and other sensitive information that users had stored as images on their phones.

An earlier malware family called SparkCat used optical character recognition to scan images for cryptocurrency recovery phrases. Some infected applications carrying the malicious software had reached official app stores, while Kaspersky said the campaign had been active since March 2024.

Researchers have found other methods for compromising iPhones without relying on users storing seed phrase screenshots. In March, Google’s Threat Intelligence Group identified an iPhone exploit kit known as Coruna that contained five complete exploit chains and 23 vulnerabilities.

The framework targeted devices running versions between iOS 13 and iOS 17.2.1 and could search compromised phones for cryptocurrency wallet recovery phrases and financial information. Google researchers said the toolkit had moved through different groups over time, including financially motivated cybercriminals.

Malicious apps have reached Apple’s App Store

Crypto users have faced separate threats from applications that impersonate legitimate wallet software.

In August, a fake Wasabi Wallet app appeared on Apple’s App Store and was linked by security monitoring reports to the theft of roughly 6 BTC from one victim.

The fraudulent listing was identified as the 27th reported crypto wallet clone found on the App Store during 2026 at the time. A fake Ledger application represented the largest reported case among the clones, with roughly $9.3 million stolen.

Another fake Ledger Live app had previously been linked to the loss of 5.9 BTC worth roughly $420,000 from American musician Garrett Dutton, known professionally as G. Love.

Dutton downloaded software posing as the Ledger Live manager onto a new MacBook Neo and entered his recovery phrase into the fraudulent application. Blockchain records showed the stolen Bitcoin subsequently moving to several deposit addresses associated with the KuCoin exchange.

Unlike wallet impersonation schemes that depend on convincing a user to manually surrender a recovery phrase, SlowMist’s FomoPeek findings describe malicious code capable of obtaining elevated system access and collecting information from other applications after exploiting the operating system.

Earlier mobile malware drained thousands of crypto wallets

SlowMist has previously investigated malicious applications that obtained wallet information directly from users’ devices.

In February 2025, the security firm reported that a fake application called BOM had compromised more than 13,000 wallets across Android and iOS, with estimated losses exceeding $1.82 million.

The application requested access to files, photos and media before scanning device storage for private keys and mnemonic phrases and transmitting the information to a remote server, according to the investigation.

Onchain analysis linked the main attacker address to stolen assets that moved across BNB Chain, Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum and Base. The affected cryptocurrencies included USDT, Ethereum, Wrapped Bitcoin and Dogecoin.

For FomoPeek users, SlowMist recommended checking accounts for unauthorized activity and generating a new private key and seed phrase on a trusted device where the affected application had never been installed. Assets held in wallets potentially exposed through versions 1.1 or 1.2 should then be moved to the newly generated wallet.

Binance gave similar instructions in its security notice, while advising users to keep their device software updated and avoid applications obtained from untrusted sources.

Shibarium has resolved its reported reorg issue as of Sept. 19, while dRPC migration and other infrastructure work remain unfinished.

Mazrael, a longtime Shiba Inu community member, relayed an update attributed to developer Kaal Dhairya in a Sept. 19 X post, saying “Kaal says reorg is solved.” The message said dRPC still needed to complete the same transition in the network’s new environment. Public reporting reproduced the statement, though detailed technical information explaining the reorg’s cause, duration or affected blocks has not been released.

A separate public statement directly from Dhairya explaining the reorg was not located in the sources reviewed. The resolution therefore remains attributed to the update shared by Mazrael, while current Shiba Inu technical documentation independently confirms several infrastructure changes surrounding Shibarium’s RPC and node setup.

Shibarium reorg is fixed while dRPC work continues

The latest update places the reorg fix inside a longer infrastructure migration that began before September. Shibarium replaced its previous public RPC setup in late 2025 and now directs users and applications to https://rpc.shibarium.shib.io, according to the network’s current official documentation. The page lists Shibarium as chain ID 109, with BONE as its native currency and Shibariumscan as the network explorer.

Mazrael’s update describes dRPC as the remaining party that needs to complete the transition into the new environment. No deadline for that step was provided in the post, and the available Shiba Inu documentation does not give a completion date for the dRPC migration.

The current material does not identify the reorg as a new exploit. No published security notice reviewed for this report links the September 2026 reorg to stolen funds, compromised validator keys or another bridge attack. The lack of technical disclosure means the scope of the reorganization cannot yet be independently measured from the statements released so far.

Shibarium suffered a separate security event in September 2025. As crypto.news reported, an attacker obtained control over enough validator keys to exploit the bridge and remove roughly $2.4 million in assets after using a 4.6 million BONE flash loan. Developers responded by restricting functions and securing remaining assets.

Node operators received new Bor and Heimdall peers

Days before the reorg resolution update, Shibarium node operators were told to replace old peer information.

On Sept. 15, Mazrael reported that the network had completed a full peer rotation covering Bor static nodes and Heimdall persistent peers. The update was described as a replacement of the previous configuration, not an expansion of the existing peer list. Contemporary reports said the new IP set differed completely from the old one.

Shibarium’s official node guide currently instructs operators to confirm that seeds and bootnodes match official values when setting up nodes. The guide covers separate Heimdall and Bor processes and tells operators to check Heimdall synchronization before starting Bor. A catching_up: false result indicates that Heimdall has completed synchronization.

The documentation specifies port 26656 for Heimdall peer-to-peer communication and port 30303 for Bor peer-to-peer traffic. Full and sentry nodes require at least 16 GB to 32 GB of RAM under the published minimums, while validator nodes are listed at 32 GB to 64 GB.

Shibarium advises operators to use snapshots for quicker recovery and migration, monitor disk and network performance and keep node software updated. Its documentation says public access should go through sentry nodes instead of exposing validator ports directly to the internet.

RPC registry now points to Shibarium’s official endpoint

The public Ethereum chain registry independently confirms the updated Shibarium connection information.

The current ethereum-lists chain ID 109 entry names Shibarium and lists https://rpc.shibarium.shib.io as its first RPC endpoint, followed by a NOWNodes endpoint. It records both the chain ID and network ID as 109 and points users to Shibariumscan as the explorer.

The registry is used by wallets and Web3 services to obtain standardized EVM network metadata. Its Shibarium entry now matches the RPC endpoint published by Shiba Inu’s own documentation, providing an independently visible record of the updated network configuration.

Reporting around the current migration said the registry entry had lagged behind Shibarium’s November 2025 RPC move before being refreshed in 2026. The official documents reviewed confirm the present endpoint configuration, though they do not state when every third-party wallet, node provider or middleware service adopted it.

Shibarium’s infrastructure work comes after the network crossed a major usage threshold last year. In related crypto.news coverage, Shibarium surpassed one billion cumulative transactions in April 2025, with more than 194 million addresses recorded at the time.

Explorer indexing and validator maintenance remain unfinished

Shibariumscan has been rebuilding its indexed chain data during the infrastructure work. U.Today reported on Sept. 20 that the explorer displayed 53% of blocks as indexed at the time of its check. The percentage refers to explorer reindexing and should not be treated as a measurement of overall Shibarium network recovery.

The live Shibariumscan explorer remains accessible, though its current index-completion percentage was not available as retrievable text during this review. The 53% figure is therefore best treated as the Sept. 20 snapshot reported from the explorer, not a current figure guaranteed to remain unchanged.

Infrastructure work extends beyond the explorer. Shiba Inu’s official ecosystem status service currently lists Shibarium Validator Staking as under maintenance following an infrastructure migration that began April 17, 2026. The notice says users may be unable to access or interact with validator staking during the maintenance period and advises them not to attempt staking transactions until service is restored.

The official SHIB Ecosystem Status page still displays the validator staking disruption as unresolved, with the engineering team working on restoration and no public completion date listed.

First, he flagged a crucial mix-up in Beni’s original post, explaining that the Artemis chart cited in the complaint measured prediction-market share rather than perpetual contract volume.

He also demystified why Kalshi’s volume numbers look so high, explaining that they use the exact same reporting convention as Polymarket: volume reflects the maximum potential payout, not the upfront cash spent. Because each event contract pays out exactly $1 to the winner, the industry tracks volume by counting the total number of $1 outcomes on the line. For example, if a trader buys 100,000 contracts priced at 30 cents, they spend only $30,000 in cash, but the system records $100,000 in volume because that is the total maximum value of the contracts at maturity. This naturally inflates the headline volume figures, but it represents real user demand, not fake wash trading.

Turning his attention to the perpetual contracts, IcoBeast firmly rejected the idea that Kalshi handpicks a closed club of Self-Clearing Members. Under CFTC regulations, “fair access” is legally mandated, meaning any firm that clears the necessary capital and operational hurdles is legally entitled to join.

“Separately on perps you claimed that “Here SCM means market makers that are selected by Kalshi lmfao”. This isn’t true. Anyone can become a Self-Clearing Member of a CFTC regulated exchange as long as they meet the regulatory requirements. “Fair access” is a reg requirement for us,” IcoBeast.eth said.

Michael Saylor has urged the U.S. crypto industry to use existing regulatory paths and target 50 million users after the Senate’s Sept. 15 CLARITY Act cloture vote failed 49-50.

Strategy’s Sept. 19 policy essay on digital assets after CLARITY lays out Saylor’s preferred path for 2027 and 2028: expand compliant digital-asset products under current agency authority, build a large customer base, then pursue focused legislation where Congress is still needed.

The official Senate roll call shows 49 senators voted to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, while 50 voted against and one did not vote. The motion needed three-fifths support. It was a procedural vote on whether to begin consideration, not a final vote on passage.

Michael Saylor wants adoption before another CLARITY push

Michael Saylor said the industry should concentrate on products that lower costs, improve access and give users more control over money. His examples include Bitcoin custody and lending, digital credit, tokenized equity trading, exchanges combining regulated services, and dollar stablecoin payments.

The Strategy executive chairman set a target of 50 million U.S. users benefiting from such products. He argued that a large user base would create a constituency with a direct interest in keeping those services available, writing, “Adoption raises the political cost of reversal.” The 50 million figure is Saylor’s proposed policy target, not a government projection or adoption forecast.

Saylor’s position differs from the case made by CLARITY’s Senate sponsors. Sens. Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott said their Sept. 14 draft would establish a statutory market structure while adding consumer, developer and ethics provisions after more than a year of negotiations. Their statement said the text contained 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has taken a two-track approach. In August, he said passage of CLARITY remained his preferred legislative outcome while directing staff to prepare possible rules under existing Commodity Exchange Act authority if Congress did not advance the bill.

CLARITY compromise would restrict some stablecoin rewards

The final Senate draft supports part of Michael Saylor’s description of the stablecoin provisions. Section 10404 would prohibit a covered digital-asset service provider from paying interest or yield to a U.S. customer solely for holding payment stablecoins, or through arrangements economically equivalent to an interest-bearing bank deposit.

The same section would permit bona fide activity-based or transaction-based rewards that are not equivalent to deposit interest. The text lists examples tied to payments, transfers, liquidity provision, collateral, governance, validation, staking and other qualifying product use.

A separate circuit-breaker would require Treasury action if the secretary determined within 18 months of enactment that transfers from community-bank interest-bearing deposits into payment stablecoins had caused substantial detrimental effects tied specifically to the regulated reward activity. The Senate sponsors described the provision as a tool to address deposit flight from community banks.

The separate GENIUS Act already prohibits permitted payment stablecoin issuers from paying holders interest or yield solely for holding, using or retaining a payment stablecoin. Its statutory effective-date provisions remain separate from CLARITY. Michael Saylor argued that the Senate compromise would place another layer of restrictions on service providers beyond the issuer rule.

Saylor raised a second objection to the proposed CFTC-SEC Micro-Innovation Sandbox. The Sept. 14 draft says eligible firms could employ no more than 25 people, report annual gross revenue of no more than $10 million and commit no more than $20 million in customer, investor or counterparty funds for sandbox activities. Each commission could approve no more than 20 projects per year.

SEC and CFTC are moving under existing authority

Two federal developments after the Senate vote match the regulatory path Michael Saylor cited, though neither creates the full statutory framework contemplated by CLARITY.

On Sept. 17, the SEC granted temporary, conditional exemptive relief allowing eligible Tokenized Securities Venues to trade certain tokenized National Market System stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools. Eligible tokens must carry the same rights and privileges as the corresponding traditional shares, and issuers can object to their securities being traded through the framework. 

As crypto.news reported in its coverage of the SEC order, the exemption creates a five-year conditional pathway for qualifying tokenized stocks. The SEC is seeking public feedback while considering further regulatory action.

The CFTC moved its process forward the same day. An Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs record shows the agency submitted “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets” for White House review on Sept. 17. The entry lists the action at the prerule stage and shows no legal deadline.

As crypto.news reported on the CFTC submission, the filing follows Selig’s August direction to staff to explore a crypto market structure using existing authority. Selig had identified possible rules for leveraged or margined crypto trading through regulated markets and engagement with developers seeking lawful routes for onchain finance.

Bank regulators have taken separate steps under existing statutes. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in March 2025 that national banks and federal savings associations may conduct crypto custody, certain stablecoin activities and distributed-ledger node verification, subject to applicable law and risk controls. The OCC removed a prior supervisory non-objection requirement for those activities.

Treasury is working through the GENIUS Act on a different track. Its Aug. 17 proposed rule sought comment on implementing payment-stablecoin requirements, with Treasury identifying Jan. 18, 2027 as the expected effective date. 

CLARITY remains available for another Senate attempt

The Sept. 15 vote did not remove H.R. 3633 from the Senate calendar. After the cloture motion failed, Sen. Thom Tillis made a motion to reconsider, according to the Senate’s daily floor record. No new cloture vote date had been announced in the official material reviewed as of Sept. 21.

Negotiations have continued outside the floor vote. As crypto.news reported after the Senate setback, seven Democratic senators who opposed cloture said the failed vote was not the end of negotiations. Any renewed attempt would still need enough support to meet the Senate’s procedural threshold before debate and amendments could begin.

The latest concrete agency update is now at OIRA. Its public docket lists CFTC rulemaking RIN 3038-AF80 as pending review, received Sept. 17, under the title “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets.” The filing does not publish proposed rule text, and the prerule designation does not itself impose new trading or registration obligations.

Bitcoin ended the week above a level that many market watchers associate with cycle turning points: its 50-week moving average. The move marks the first time in more than 10 months that the benchmark has been reclaimed on a weekly closing basis—an outcome analysts say often aligns with the end phase of bear markets, though they caution that one close alone cannot confirm a new bull cycle.

According to TradingView, Bitcoin closed Sunday’s session at $81,159 on Coinbase, holding above its 50-week moving average of $78,788. The previous weekly close above the 50-week average occurred on Nov. 9, 2025. The latest result also represents Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in about four months, per the same TradingView data.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s weekly close at $81,159 is the first above its 50-week moving average in over 10 months, based on TradingView.
• Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn has previously framed the 50-week moving average as a “bear market ceiling,” with historical follow-through after reclaiming it.
• Analysts including Bitget’s Ryan Lee stress that confirmation now depends on whether Bitcoin can stay above the average and build higher lows.
• Galaxy Research has also highlighted that reclaim signals can fail—especially in past cycles when the broader macro environment remained strained.
• Not all traders view the 50-week level as decisive; some are instead watching higher thresholds on the monthly and quarterly charts.

Why reclaiming the 50-week moving average matters

The 50-week moving average has become a commonly cited technical line because of how price tends to behave around it during downtrends. In August, Galaxy Research head of firmwide research Alex Thorn described the metric as functioning like a “ceiling” during bear markets—an area that price struggles to regain until the market’s momentum shifts.

In a research note cited in this week’s discussion, Thorn pointed out that in four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken upward, the bear-market bottom was later confirmed. He added that retaking the 50-week moving average has previously served as a practical confirmation of bear-market completion.

That context helps explain why this week’s close is drawing attention: it doesn’t just represent short-term strength; it reconnects Bitcoin with a longer-duration trend gauge that has historically been more meaningful than many shorter moving averages.

A milestone, but traders want follow-through

Even with the technical milestone, several analysts are careful not to treat a single weekly close as the full verdict on the cycle. Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee, speaking to Cointelegraph, said the latest close increases the odds that Bitcoin’s recovery is underway—but emphasized what comes next.

Lee noted that in prior cycles, reclaiming the 50-week moving average has often occurred after the major low was already established and longer-term momentum began to repair. However, he argued that buyers still need evidence that the market can hold the level and develop a healthier structure.

“What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows,” Lee said. He also warned that failures can happen when macro conditions remain difficult, pointing to instances of “failed reclaims” in earlier cycles.

This concern aligns with Galaxy Research’s own caution. While Thorn’s framework suggests the 50-week moving average tends to confirm bear-market resolution, the research also indicates the indicator isn’t perfect. Galaxy’s warning, as referenced here, notes that among 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two were followed by a lower low—both within the 2021–2022 bear market. The implication is straightforward for investors: the reclaim is meaningful, but it must be validated by continued trend behavior.

What’s driving the stronger backdrop

Beyond the chart, analysts referenced improvements in the broader market environment since earlier in the year. Lee said the backdrop is stronger than earlier in 2025, highlighting that Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from July lows around $57,000. He also pointed to the possibility that repeated liquidations may have reduced leverage that had accumulated in the market, potentially improving the ability of price to sustain upward moves.

Lee further mentioned signs of renewed institutional interest, framing institutional demand as an element that could help support follow-through if the technical level holds.

For traders, this mix—improving structure on the weekly chart alongside evidence of de-leveraging and participation—helps explain why the 50-week reclaim is being treated as more than a one-week anomaly.

Other levels still in focus

Not everyone agrees that the 50-week moving average is the decisive checkpoint for a bull market call. Crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that he does not use the 50-week level as his primary trigger. Instead, he emphasized $83,000 as a key threshold.

According to Cobb, breaking above $83,000 would imply there is no lower high on the monthly chart—meaning the longer-term trend would no longer be down. His second condition is tied to Bitcoin’s quarterly chart pattern: he is watching for a sequence where red quarterly candles are followed by a shift into a green candle, and then a later candle breaks above the green candle’s high.

Cobb said this red-to-green transition has occurred 15 times in Bitcoin’s history. He stated that in 11 instances, the high of the first green candle was later broken, and each of those outcomes eventually produced a new all-time high. On that basis, he argued that investors should be attentive to specific technical confirmations rather than relying on a single moving average.

His framework ties cycle interpretation more directly to higher-timeframe trend structure—useful as a reminder that different traders often treat the 50-week metric as a supporting signal, not the entire thesis.

Going forward, the most important question is whether Bitcoin can hold above the 50-week moving average and continue the process of forming higher lows, as Lee suggested. Investors and traders will likely watch for additional weekly closes around the $78,788 area, while others may shift attention to higher breakout levels such as $83,000 and quarterly chart confirmation.