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Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically important $84,000 level during Asian trading hours on Thursday, touching around $83,200 as US Treasury yields surged to their highest point since 2007. The move highlights how quickly macro rates conditions can overwhelm even relatively constructive crypto seasonal patterns.

The catalyst behind the rate-driven pressure was a combination of firmer US economic data and higher energy prices, which pushed the US 10-year yield higher on Wednesday before ending the day at 5.11%—up from 4.96% the prior session. With the yield reaching 5.13% intraday and Treasury buyback activity scheduled, traders are now looking toward upcoming Federal Reserve communications and economic releases.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin dipped to roughly $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13% intraday, its highest since 2007.
• CME attributed part of the bond market selloff to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.
• Market pricing for an October Fed hike has risen materially, with an analyst citing around a 70% probability and CME Fedwatch showing a 75.3% chance for a 4.00%–4.25% range.
• Despite the pullback, CoinGlass data indicate Bitcoin has closed September higher in each of the past three years, while October has historically been one of its strongest months.

Yields at multi-year highs reassert pressure on risk assets

The selloff in Bitcoin accelerated as US rates moved further into territory that tends to be challenging for high-duration assets. During Wednesday trading, the 10-year yield closed at 5.11% after climbing from 4.96% on Tuesday, and it reached 5.13% during the session. That trajectory matters because higher yields typically offer investors better returns on government debt, while also raising borrowing costs across the economy—two factors that can weigh on risk-taking.

CME’s explanation for the bond market decline pointed to stronger US business data and increased energy prices. In other words, the rate move wasn’t purely technical; it reflected an adjustment in the outlook for growth and inflation pressures, which in turn can influence expectations for Fed policy.

James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com, said Bitcoin has managed to hold up “even with surging rates and a strong USD.” Stanley also highlighted a level to monitor if the pullback deepens, identifying $82,833 as the next area of interest.

Treasury buybacks and “higher-for-longer” rate expectations collide

Alongside the macro data backdrop, the US Treasury also announced a bond buyback with a ceiling of $6 billion. The program targets longer-dated bonds—roughly 20 to 30 years remaining maturity—and is intended to improve liquidity in that segment of the market. The Treasury said the ceiling applies to its Thursday buyback activity, as detailed in an official announcement released Wednesday.

While buybacks are typically supportive for liquidity, the timing also places additional attention on how long-dated yields trade relative to policy expectations. With the Fed still the central variable for rates, traders are likely to view any ongoing yield strength through the lens of what it may imply for the next policy decision.

In that context, rising Treasury yields can directly affect leveraged participation in Bitcoin markets. If borrowing costs remain elevated, dollar-funded strategies—particularly those using leverage—can become less attractive, which can amplify downside moves during periods of macro stress.

Fed hike odds rise, and October’s policy date grows closer

Expectations for the Fed’s next steps have shifted toward a higher probability of tightening. Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices increased expectations of further Federal Reserve action. In a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph, Kooijman stated that markets were assigning around a 70% probability to an October hike—up from roughly 55% the previous day—while expectations for additional tightening over coming months had also increased.

That repricing, according to Kooijman, is supporting both Treasury yields and the US dollar. The Federal Reserve remains the key transmission mechanism between macro data and crypto pricing, since rate path expectations affect discount rates, risk appetite, and cross-asset correlations.

CME Group’s Fedwatch tool also reflects this shift. With less than five weeks remaining until the Oct. 28 meeting, CME Fedwatch showed a 75.3% probability of a hike to a 4.00%–4.25% range. The implication is straightforward: if an October hike becomes more firmly priced, risk assets like Bitcoin can face renewed pressure even before the meeting arrives.

Kooijman added that resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and strengthen the dollar, while softer data could prompt traders to dial back the probability of an October move—potentially easing currency gains and reducing headwinds for Bitcoin.

Seasonality offers support, but “Red September” still sets the tone

Crypto traders often frame the calendar in terms of “Red September” and “Uptober.” The pattern is built on history: Bitcoin fell in five consecutive Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years, based on CoinGlass data cited in the report.

CoinGlass also shows September typically posts the lowest average returns in the month-by-month table, with an average return of -2.34%. Yet the most recent stretch has been an exception to that broader tendency. Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022; it rose in September 2023, 2024, and 2025. As of the current reading, Bitcoin is up 7.35% so far in September.

October, meanwhile, has averaged a 19.92% gain—second only to November. Still, the seasonal script is not guaranteed, and last year’s October performance fell short of the “Uptober” narrative, with Bitcoin down 3.69% in the month. This matters because the current drawdown below $84,000 suggests that, for now, macro forces may be overpowering the calendar tailwind.

Going forward, traders will likely watch two things closely: whether further data keeps pushing Treasury yields and dollar strength higher into the October Fed meeting, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim—and hold—key technical levels such as the next support area identified by analysts. Until policy odds stabilize, seasonal history may offer guidance, but it won’t eliminate the near-term impact of rates.

A sudden spike in bond market turbulence, particularly in Treasuries, which underpin global finance, can tighten financial conditions, make credit more expensive, and trigger broader risk aversion.

The MOVE Index, which tracks expected turbulence in Treasury notes, surged 21% to 95 points on Wednesday, its highest level since April 1. That helps explain bitcoin’s pullback from $87,200 to $83,500 on Wednesday, though the market may also have simply been looking for a reason to pull back after the recent steep run higher.

If Treasury volatility persists or climbs further, bitcoin could correct more.

Yields rise

Yields’ lift on Wednesday was led by U.S. data, not fiscal fear.

S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, the highest reading since July 2021, up from 56.0 in August, with business activity expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years alongside a buildup in inflationary pressure.

That data reinforced expectations that the Fed will need to keep hiking after the September rate increase of 25 basis points. The 10-year and two-year yields both jumped on it.

But a closer look at the feature image shows France’s yield actually rose more than the U.S.’s on Wednesday, even though it was U.S. data driving the move. The U.K.’s yield also rose nearly as much as the U.S. Per Robin Brooks, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, the same held for Italy and Greece.

Bitcoin has given back gains from an early Thursday recovery, now trading at $83,344, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, with a bond selloff that pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007 weighing on crypto for a second day.

The move has taken the whole market with it, ether is down 1.55%, XRP lost 2.87% while solana (SOL) is trading at $113.14 having lost 1.61%. While the smaller tokens led a slight recovery in the European morning, they are now suffering the hardest, with NEAR and HYPE down by 3.32% and 3.94% respectively.

The dollar index (DXY) added 0.13% to 101.24 – its highest level since July, while gold is down by 0.71% to $4,257 and U.S. equity futures trend lower again. S&P 500 futures lost 0.61% while Nasdaq 100 tumbled by more than 1%.

Derivatives positioning

• Litecoin held its gains through the selloff, up 8.1% since midnight UTC and 6.2% over the rolling day. The move comes as traders position themselves ahead of next July’s block reward halving, with historical bottoms typically arriving six to 12 months beforehand.
• Ethereum classic (ETC) added 7.6% on the day to $9.42 and lending protocol token morpho climbed by 4.1% to $2.67.
• The damage is concentrated in the tokens that ran hardest earlier in the week, AI inference token venice falling 5.2% since midnight and 9.6% over 24 hours to $28.71, perpetuals exchange token lighter (LIT) 4.2% and 2.1% to $5.09, and pump.fun 4.1% on the day and 11% over the rolling window.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) lost 3.9% to $90.39 and NEAR 3.1% to $4.2, with the AI token now 8.7% lower over the past 24 hours despite being one of the srongest performers over the past week.
• XRP (XRP) and bitcoin cash were the weakest of the majors, each falling 2.7% since midnight to $1.46 and $328.56, with XRP 8.3% lower over 24 hours and bitcoin cash 6.8%, the latter of which is giving back gains from Wednesday’s CME futures announcement.

Key points

• Bitcoin fell below $84,000 as the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007.
• An analyst put the odds of an October Fed hike above 70% as the Treasury prepared a bond buyback of up to $6 billion.
• Bitcoin has closed September higher for three straight years, while October has averaged a 19.92% gain, per CoinGlass data.

Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007.

The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.

“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote Wednesday. Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingView

Rising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt and can raise borrowing costs, potentially weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87K

Fed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footing

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman said in a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday.

Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25%

Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise finds

An October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially raising the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades.BTC could feel the pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.

“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman said.

As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays green

Bitcoin traders call the months “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years according to data compiled by CoinGlass.

September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlass

However, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month.

October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November. But “Uptober” failed to deliver last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.

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U.S. Treasury yields across the entire curve are pushing to new highs as traders prepare for a longer stretch of tighter monetary policy. CME FedWatch puts the 4.75% to 5% federal funds range as the likely outcome for June 2027.

That would mean four quarter-point hikes from today’s 3.75% to 4% range. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has already raised the fed funds rate by 25 bps this month.

The pressure is across the entire Treasury market. The 20-year yield is approaching 5.5%, which has sent the long-bond ETF (TLT), to all-time lows below $80.
While the 10-year yield is above 5.1%, levels last seen in 2007. Borrowing costs are rising beyond the U.S. too, with government bond yields under pressure in France, Germany, the U.K. and Japan.

Higher yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on risk assets. The dollar index has climbed above 101, up 3% this year. While, bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, from its local high of $87,500 and gold remains just above $4,200, down 25% from its January all-time high.