Mint.io has opened its Web3 player economy across its full web platform, connecting games, XP, leaderboards and rewards ahead of the planned activation of its MNTD token.

According to Mint, the platform was built with token mechanics from the start and uses a multi chain infrastructure layer to connect progression and rewards across supported games. Technology for the platform is supplied by Hero Gaming Group, an iGaming business founded in 2013.

Players can collect XP through eligible activity, move through different tiers and compete for prize pools without their progression being limited to a single title. Mint said onchain verification is used for core reward flows, while AI assisted models are used to manage token emissions and balance the player economy as activity changes.

A free to play Telegram Mini App sits alongside the main web platform, giving users another route into the progression system.

MNTD allocations will draw from pre launch activity

Players who participated before the MNTD launch will have their accumulated leaderboard standings converted into token allocations when the asset is activated, according to Mint.

Eligible activity has carried a 200% XP boost during the run up to the launch. Progress recorded through both the main web platform and Mint’s free to play Telegram Mini App will count toward the allocation process.

The system builds on ranks, seasons and XP already available to users, with each eligible session contributing to a player’s position on the platform. Mint has not disclosed the conversion rate between leaderboard progress and MNTD allocations.

Mint said emissions will be capped and linked to platform revenue. Reward limits are part of the same structure, while controls have been introduced to deal with promotional abuse and attempts to exploit the progression system.

Under the model described by the company, token distribution is connected to eligible platform activity instead of relying solely on rewards distributed around the launch itself. Mint said the setup is intended to keep emissions manageable during periods of higher volume as well as slower market conditions.

Its existing reward system already links eligible activity to progression. Mint’s help center says real mode gameplay uses supported cryptocurrency balances, with qualifying activity able to contribute to XP or other rewards depending on the applicable rules. Demo play, where available, does not generate XP or real money rewards.

Web platform connects progression across supported games

Mint’s infrastructure connects supported games to a common progression layer, allowing XP, ranks and rewards to carry across the platform instead of operating separately within each title.

AI assisted systems are used in two parts of the platform. Incentive modeling helps manage token emissions as participation changes, while Mint said its content pipeline can produce themed experiences with token utility in roughly 10 days.

Core reward flows use onchain verification. A free to play Telegram Mini App provides another entry point into the ecosystem, with eligible progress there contributing to the same MNTD allocation process used by the main web platform.

Telegram Mini Apps have become one route for Web3 gaming projects to reach users inside the messaging platform. Crypto.news previously covered the Telegram gaming ecosystem as developers experimented with social games that could be accessed without a separate application.

Mint’s Telegram product complements its main web platform, where supported cryptocurrency balances can be used for real mode gameplay. Qualifying activity can contribute to XP and other rewards depending on the applicable rules, while demo play does not generate XP or real money rewards.

Mint caps token emissions based on platform revenue

MNTD emissions will be hard capped and linked to revenue generated by the platform, Mint said.

Reward limits will determine how much can enter circulation through the player economy, while controls against exploitation are intended to restrict abuse of promotional and progression systems. Eligible platform activity will determine participation in the reward structure.

Mint said the model was designed to operate through changes in player volume and weaker market conditions without depending on unrestricted token distribution. The company has not provided projections for MNTD’s market value or the monetary value of allocations earned during the current campaign.

More games and leaderboard seasons are planned

Mint plans to bring more titles onto its shared infrastructure after the MNTD launch, with future games expected to use the same XP, ranking and reward framework.

Additional leaderboard seasons with token denominated prize pools are planned, while the company intends to continue using its AI assisted pipeline to produce new themed experiences. Mint has not disclosed how many games will be added or provided a timetable for individual integrations.

Mint.io is operated by Sage Shark Ltd under Anjouan gaming license No. ALSI-202507035-FI2. Its web platform and Telegram Mini App are already operational, with qualifying leaderboard standings accumulated during the pre launch period set to convert into MNTD allocations at token activation.

Senate Banking Committee Democrats have written a letter urging committee chair Tim Scott to hold a congressional hearing on prediction markets.

The demand came the same day Scott and Senate Banking Committee Republicans held a private meeting with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.

Democrats Push For Congressional Hearing

Senate Banking Committee Democrats wrote a letter to Scott stating that the panel has a critical role in overseeing prediction markets and platforms like Kalshi. Several Democratic Senators, including Elizabeth Warren, Catherine Cortez Masto, Jack Reed, Mark Warner, Raphael Warnock, Ruben Gallego, and Angela Alsobrooks, signed the letter.

“It is critical that Congress examine prediction markets on a bipartisan basis in a public hearing—not behind closed doors in a Republican-only, industry-friendly roundtable.”

News of the meeting between Senate Banking Committee Republicans and Mansour was first reported by Punchbowl News. Scott confirmed the meeting in a separate statement sent to The Block. The Banking Committee Chair said the committee’s Republican members and Kalshi officials met to “better understand the opportunities and challenges presented by securities-linked products.” The statement read,

“We discussed the importance of bringing innovation onshore, how investors use these products, ways to protect retail investors, and the regulatory questions Congress should address. My goal is to ensure that America leads in financial innovation while protecting investors and providing the regulatory clarity these emerging markets need.”

Who Regulates Prediction Markets

There remains substantial confusion about which body has oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stepped in to regulate prediction markets. However, it has faced pushback from states such as New York and Arizona that argue they have the authority to regulate event contracts. State and federal regulators have repeatedly clashed over who should regulate prediction markets, with lawmakers mulling whether Congress should step in to break the deadlock.

Lawmakers have raised doubts about whether existing laws and the CFTC’s limited resources are enough to oversee the rapidly growing sector. Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., stated during a House Agriculture Committee digital assets subcommittee hearing,

“As with many emerging technologies, our laws are being asked to answer questions that we had never really contemplated when we wrote the laws years ago.”

The House Agriculture Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee have primary jurisdiction over the CFTC. On the other hand, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) falls under the Senate Banking Committee’s jurisdiction. Senate Democrats have argued that prediction market products offer bets tied to company performance indicators, thus falling under the SEC’s regulatory purview.

Cboe Global Markets has also asked the SEC for the green light to list “all-or-nothing options” tied to the earnings results of companies. Senate committee Democrats cited Cboe’s request in their letter, stating,

“As industry participants request SEC approval for options tied to corporate earnings, the full Senate Banking Committee has a critical oversight role to play.”

Meanwhile, prediction markets remain trapped in a high-stakes tug-of-war between federal and state regulators.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitwise’s first Institutional Crypto Adoption Report, based on interviews with 15 asset owners conducted in late March and April, suggests that the institutions that hold crypto were far more resilient during a major drawdown than many might expect. According to Bitwise, none of the surveyed organizations cut their crypto allocations during an approximately 50% market decline that began in October 2025—though several said they added.

Across the group, Bitcoin (BTC) was the core holding. Every institution in the sample that owned crypto held BTC, typically as its largest and longest-standing position. Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) were present too, but generally in smaller allocations tied to clearer conditions for when (and whether) those positions should be maintained.

Key takeaways

• During a roughly 50% drawdown, none of the 15 interviewed institutions reported reducing crypto allocations, and some increased exposure.
• Bitcoin remains the anchor asset for institutional conviction, with ETH and SOL viewed as more conditional and shorter-horizon bets.
• Asked what would trigger selling, institutions pointed to fundamental and credibility risks—not price declines such as regulatory reversals or thesis failure.
• Most allocations for these investors were structured via spot crypto ETFs, or ETF usage was planned; some investors shifted from direct custody or private placements.
• ETH and SOL are being judged on token value accrual, with some institutions willing to exit if network growth does not translate to benefits for token holders.

Hold through drawdowns: what institutions said they would change

Bitwise’s report is grounded in interviews conducted as markets were still adjusting to a decline that started in October 2025. While the report does not name every participant, it describes the types of organizations involved, including endowments, foundations, public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, multi-family offices, investment consultants, and public companies.

One of the most notable findings is what did not drive behavior. When Bitwise asked respondents about potential reasons to sell, none cited falling prices as the deciding factor. Instead, institutions highlighted scenarios such as regulatory reversals, an industry-wide credibility problem, or a clear failure of their investment thesis.

That framing matters because it positions the drawdown not as a near-term test of price tolerance, but as a stress test of whether each institution’s original rationale still holds. Investors that treat crypto exposure as a long-term mandate—rather than a trading position—tend to be less likely to make allocation changes based on volatility alone, and Bitwise’s interview results appear to align with that approach.

BTC at the center; ETH and SOL under a “prove it” standard

The report’s asset-level breakdown reinforces a common pattern in institutional crypto adoption: BTC is the default core, while other networks are evaluated with more scrutiny.

According to Bitwise, every institution that owned crypto held Bitcoin, often as its first, largest, and longest-held position. For many of these organizations, BTC was described as a store of value—frequently compared alongside gold.

By contrast, Bitwise reports that conviction around ETH and SOL varied more. Institutions were less uniform about how long they expected those holdings to remain part of a portfolio. Several respondents told Bitwise they could exit ETH or SOL over the next few years if growth in network activity—such as stablecoins, decentralized finance, and tokenization—failed to translate into value accruing to the tokens themselves.

Bitwise also highlights a specific example from the interview set: one institution that held neither Ether nor Solana had used decentralized finance applications but saw no clear path for that activity to benefit the underlying tokens.

This “token value accrual” focus is important because it clarifies what institutions appear to be underwriting. Rather than treating network usage as sufficient on its own, the interviews suggest investors are looking for more direct economic linkage between adoption and tokenholder outcomes. The next question for market participants is whether ongoing growth in DeFi, tokenization, and stablecoin ecosystems will increasingly be presented in a way that demonstrates measurable benefits for ETH and SOL holders.

ETFs are becoming the default implementation path

Bitwise’s report also sheds light on how institutions are gaining or managing crypto exposure. Among the interviewed organizations with crypto exposure, allocations ranged from 0.5% to 13% of investable assets, with most sitting between 1% and 2%.

Nearly every institution in the sample either used spot crypto exchange-traded funds or planned to. Bitwise further said some investors were shifting from private placements or direct custody toward ETF structures. The shift matters for institutions because it often reduces operational complexity and can align crypto exposure with established portfolio management workflows.

The ETF implementation angle also connects to broader investor positioning trends. CoinShares data published in June, cited by Bitwise, found that professional investors’ reported spot Bitcoin ETF exposure fell by 17% in the first quarter. CoinShares attributed the reduction primarily to hedge funds and brokerages, which accounted for roughly 96% of the decrease, while banks added exposure.

Put together, these details suggest that institutional participation is not simply expanding in a straight line. Instead, exposure can migrate between investor categories and vehicles—sometimes reducing holdings in aggregate for certain groups while increasing for others. For readers, that implies that tracking ETF flows by investor segment may be as important as watching headline totals.

What could trigger selling—beyond market volatility

Perhaps the clearest throughline of the Bitwise interviews is that allocation decisions were tied to durability of the investment rationale rather than to interim price performance. When asked what might prompt selling, respondents referenced three broad categories: regulatory reversal, credibility issues across the crypto industry, and failure of their investment thesis.

In practical terms, this means the “risk calendar” for these institutions is shaped more by policy and structural legitimacy than by day-to-day market moves. Regulatory uncertainty can quickly alter the perceived long-term viability of crypto products, custody frameworks, and market access—so it is unsurprising that institutions prioritize it.

At the same time, the report signals a meaningful split between how investors view BTC versus other major tokens. Even with BTC serving as the anchor asset, ETH and SOL appear to be held with clearer conditions: if token-linked value does not materialize as networks scale, those positions may not survive the next investment review cycles.

Going forward, investors will likely watch two things closely: whether institutional ETF usage continues to deepen across different investor types, and whether Ethereum– and Solana-linked economic models can convincingly demonstrate how growth converts into tokenholder value—since that is the standard several institutions say would determine their next decisions.

The Hashgraph Group has put its Hedera-based IDTrust identity platform on IBM Cloud Catalog under a partnership announced Sept. 23, giving enterprise customers a route to deploy verifiable identities for AI agents.

The Hashgraph Group said IDTrust has been validated and listed as a SaaS offering on IBM’s marketplace, while the companies have signed an Embedded Solution Agreement covering IBM cloud and AI technology. THG described the product as “among the first” commercial Hedera-based enterprise applications available directly through a major cloud marketplace, a claim made by the company rather than an independently established market ranking.

IBM’s live catalog independently confirms that IDTrust is listed as a third-party blockchain product from The Hashgraph Group. The catalog describes it as a self-sovereign identity platform for AI agents, smart devices and humans.

Hedera IDTrust gives AI agents verifiable credentials

IDTrust assigns decentralized identifiers and verifiable credentials to people, machines and AI agents. THG says each actor can receive a unique did:hedera identifier registered through Hedera Consensus Service, while credentials are cryptographically signed and recorded through an auditable identity process.

The platform lets enterprises define credentials for particular purposes and revoke them through its management tools. THG says AI-agent identities are non-transferable and can be approved by humans, while revocation registries are anchored on Hedera. Its current product page lists financial services, telecoms, healthcare, education and device identity among supported use cases.

IDTrust uses W3C Verifiable Credentials and decentralized identifier standards. The W3C formally published its Verifiable Credentials 2.0 family as Recommendations in May 2025, defining standards for cryptographically secure and machine-verifiable digital credentials.

THG said the platform includes MCP servers that can connect AI agents with IBM watsonx Orchestrate, allowing an agent to obtain identity credentials and leave an auditable trail for authorized activity. The integration details come from THG’s announcement and have not been accompanied by a separate technical deployment report from IBM.

IBM partnership gives THG another enterprise channel

The agreement extends beyond the catalog listing. THG said it signed a global Embedded Solution Agreement with IBM covering cloud and AI technology, which allows it to incorporate IBM technology into products sold under its own offering.

IBM’s Partner Plus directory currently lists The Hashgraph Group as an Independent Software Vendor and Managed Service Provider and displays a Silver Partner badge. The same page identifies IDTrust among THG’s available solutions. IBM notes, however, that company and solution information in the directory is supplied by partners and is not validated by IBM unless stated otherwise.

The companies already share a connection through Hedera governance. IBM joined the Hedera Governing Council in August 2019 alongside Tata Communications, becoming one of the organizations involved in overseeing the network. Hedera’s historical records confirm IBM’s membership.

In related coverage, crypto.news previously reported on THG’s BrandBoost enterprise platform built on Hedera. That product combines loyalty tools with IDTrust identity functions and is part of the same Hashgraph for Enterprise product suite.

THG previously introduced TransAct, a managed gateway that lets businesses execute Hedera transactions without directly holding HBAR or handling crypto wallets. Crypto.news reported on THG’s TransAct enterprise gateway launch in September 2025.

Know Your Agent identity is becoming an enterprise focus

The IBM listing arrives as several technology and payments companies develop identity frameworks for autonomous software. Gartner projected that task-specific AI agents could appear in 40% of enterprise applications by the end of 2026, compared with less than 5% in 2025. The figure is a Gartner forecast, not an observed adoption rate.

Governance remains part of that forecast. In May, Gartner predicted that “40% of enterprises will demote or decommission autonomous AI agents” by 2027 because of governance gaps discovered after deployment. The firm said access levels and agent autonomy require different controls instead of one uniform governance model.

Other companies are developing similar identity concepts. Akamai introduced an agentic security framework in June that links agent identity, authorization and human attribution. Its partners include Visa, Experian and Skyfire.

Akamai describes its Know Your Agent framework as a method for agents to declare their identity, origin and intent while linking them to the platforms and people they represent. Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol addresses authorization and identity for automated payments, while Experian contributes identity and risk tools.

THG is using the same KYA terminology for IDTrust, but the approaches are separate products and frameworks. No common industry-wide KYA standard has been established by the announcements reviewed for this report.

IDTrust extends THG’s use of Hedera beyond identity

THG has expanded its Hedera enterprise portfolio during 2026. Its current product suite includes identity, transaction, loyalty, traceability and environmental-market tools, while IDTrust specifically covers credential issuance and verification.

The company announced work with Merck in September on cocoa traceability and digital product passports, following other projects involving carbon-market infrastructure and cross-border logistics. THG lists the IBM agreement as its latest enterprise announcement.

Hedera has separately continued adding enterprise organizations to its governance structure. IBM has participated since 2019, while the current network history records its role among the organizations that joined during the council’s early expansion.

THG CEO Stefan Deiss said enterprises increasingly need to verify whether autonomous software is authorized to act on their behalf. He said IDTrust is intended to answer the question, “how do I know this agent is authorised to act on my behalf?”

Naemi Benz, vice president of IBM Partner Ecosystem DACH, said making IDTrust available through IBM Cloud Catalog gives clients access to THG’s decentralized identity technology through IBM’s partner ecosystem. Her comments appear in THG’s release announcing the agreement.

As of Sept. 24, IBM Cloud Catalog lists IDTrust as an available third-party blockchain product, while THG’s product site offers enterprise access through its managed platform, SDK or API.

China’s new new world vision

Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically important $84,000 level during Asian trading hours on Thursday, touching around $83,200 as US Treasury yields surged to their highest point since 2007. The move highlights how quickly macro rates conditions can overwhelm even relatively constructive crypto seasonal patterns.

The catalyst behind the rate-driven pressure was a combination of firmer US economic data and higher energy prices, which pushed the US 10-year yield higher on Wednesday before ending the day at 5.11%—up from 4.96% the prior session. With the yield reaching 5.13% intraday and Treasury buyback activity scheduled, traders are now looking toward upcoming Federal Reserve communications and economic releases.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin dipped to roughly $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13% intraday, its highest since 2007.
• CME attributed part of the bond market selloff to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.
• Market pricing for an October Fed hike has risen materially, with an analyst citing around a 70% probability and CME Fedwatch showing a 75.3% chance for a 4.00%–4.25% range.
• Despite the pullback, CoinGlass data indicate Bitcoin has closed September higher in each of the past three years, while October has historically been one of its strongest months.

Yields at multi-year highs reassert pressure on risk assets

The selloff in Bitcoin accelerated as US rates moved further into territory that tends to be challenging for high-duration assets. During Wednesday trading, the 10-year yield closed at 5.11% after climbing from 4.96% on Tuesday, and it reached 5.13% during the session. That trajectory matters because higher yields typically offer investors better returns on government debt, while also raising borrowing costs across the economy—two factors that can weigh on risk-taking.

CME’s explanation for the bond market decline pointed to stronger US business data and increased energy prices. In other words, the rate move wasn’t purely technical; it reflected an adjustment in the outlook for growth and inflation pressures, which in turn can influence expectations for Fed policy.

James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com, said Bitcoin has managed to hold up “even with surging rates and a strong USD.” Stanley also highlighted a level to monitor if the pullback deepens, identifying $82,833 as the next area of interest.

Treasury buybacks and “higher-for-longer” rate expectations collide

Alongside the macro data backdrop, the US Treasury also announced a bond buyback with a ceiling of $6 billion. The program targets longer-dated bonds—roughly 20 to 30 years remaining maturity—and is intended to improve liquidity in that segment of the market. The Treasury said the ceiling applies to its Thursday buyback activity, as detailed in an official announcement released Wednesday.

While buybacks are typically supportive for liquidity, the timing also places additional attention on how long-dated yields trade relative to policy expectations. With the Fed still the central variable for rates, traders are likely to view any ongoing yield strength through the lens of what it may imply for the next policy decision.

In that context, rising Treasury yields can directly affect leveraged participation in Bitcoin markets. If borrowing costs remain elevated, dollar-funded strategies—particularly those using leverage—can become less attractive, which can amplify downside moves during periods of macro stress.

Fed hike odds rise, and October’s policy date grows closer

Expectations for the Fed’s next steps have shifted toward a higher probability of tightening. Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices increased expectations of further Federal Reserve action. In a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph, Kooijman stated that markets were assigning around a 70% probability to an October hike—up from roughly 55% the previous day—while expectations for additional tightening over coming months had also increased.

That repricing, according to Kooijman, is supporting both Treasury yields and the US dollar. The Federal Reserve remains the key transmission mechanism between macro data and crypto pricing, since rate path expectations affect discount rates, risk appetite, and cross-asset correlations.

CME Group’s Fedwatch tool also reflects this shift. With less than five weeks remaining until the Oct. 28 meeting, CME Fedwatch showed a 75.3% probability of a hike to a 4.00%–4.25% range. The implication is straightforward: if an October hike becomes more firmly priced, risk assets like Bitcoin can face renewed pressure even before the meeting arrives.

Kooijman added that resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and strengthen the dollar, while softer data could prompt traders to dial back the probability of an October move—potentially easing currency gains and reducing headwinds for Bitcoin.

Seasonality offers support, but “Red September” still sets the tone

Crypto traders often frame the calendar in terms of “Red September” and “Uptober.” The pattern is built on history: Bitcoin fell in five consecutive Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years, based on CoinGlass data cited in the report.

CoinGlass also shows September typically posts the lowest average returns in the month-by-month table, with an average return of -2.34%. Yet the most recent stretch has been an exception to that broader tendency. Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022; it rose in September 2023, 2024, and 2025. As of the current reading, Bitcoin is up 7.35% so far in September.

October, meanwhile, has averaged a 19.92% gain—second only to November. Still, the seasonal script is not guaranteed, and last year’s October performance fell short of the “Uptober” narrative, with Bitcoin down 3.69% in the month. This matters because the current drawdown below $84,000 suggests that, for now, macro forces may be overpowering the calendar tailwind.

Going forward, traders will likely watch two things closely: whether further data keeps pushing Treasury yields and dollar strength higher into the October Fed meeting, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim—and hold—key technical levels such as the next support area identified by analysts. Until policy odds stabilize, seasonal history may offer guidance, but it won’t eliminate the near-term impact of rates.

Bitcoin has given back gains from an early Thursday recovery, now trading at $83,344, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, with a bond selloff that pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007 weighing on crypto for a second day.

The move has taken the whole market with it, ether is down 1.55%, XRP lost 2.87% while solana (SOL) is trading at $113.14 having lost 1.61%. While the smaller tokens led a slight recovery in the European morning, they are now suffering the hardest, with NEAR and HYPE down by 3.32% and 3.94% respectively.

The dollar index (DXY) added 0.13% to 101.24 – its highest level since July, while gold is down by 0.71% to $4,257 and U.S. equity futures trend lower again. S&P 500 futures lost 0.61% while Nasdaq 100 tumbled by more than 1%.

Derivatives positioning

• Litecoin held its gains through the selloff, up 8.1% since midnight UTC and 6.2% over the rolling day. The move comes as traders position themselves ahead of next July’s block reward halving, with historical bottoms typically arriving six to 12 months beforehand.
• Ethereum classic (ETC) added 7.6% on the day to $9.42 and lending protocol token morpho climbed by 4.1% to $2.67.
• The damage is concentrated in the tokens that ran hardest earlier in the week, AI inference token venice falling 5.2% since midnight and 9.6% over 24 hours to $28.71, perpetuals exchange token lighter (LIT) 4.2% and 2.1% to $5.09, and pump.fun 4.1% on the day and 11% over the rolling window.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) lost 3.9% to $90.39 and NEAR 3.1% to $4.2, with the AI token now 8.7% lower over the past 24 hours despite being one of the srongest performers over the past week.
• XRP (XRP) and bitcoin cash were the weakest of the majors, each falling 2.7% since midnight to $1.46 and $328.56, with XRP 8.3% lower over 24 hours and bitcoin cash 6.8%, the latter of which is giving back gains from Wednesday’s CME futures announcement.

Key points

• Bitcoin fell below $84,000 as the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007.
• An analyst put the odds of an October Fed hike above 70% as the Treasury prepared a bond buyback of up to $6 billion.
• Bitcoin has closed September higher for three straight years, while October has averaged a 19.92% gain, per CoinGlass data.

Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007.

The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.

“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote Wednesday. Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingView

Rising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt and can raise borrowing costs, potentially weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87K

Fed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footing

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman said in a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday.

Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25%

Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise finds

An October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially raising the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades.BTC could feel the pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.

“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman said.

As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays green

Bitcoin traders call the months “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years according to data compiled by CoinGlass.

September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlass

However, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month.

October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November. But “Uptober” failed to deliver last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.

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