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Apollo limits private credit withdrawals for third consecutive quarter

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Apollo limits private credit withdrawals for third consecutive quarter

The slow-motion liquidity crisis in private credit has rolled into its third quarter, with Apollo gating another three months of withdrawal requests from its flagship retail private credit fund.

On Tuesday, the fund disappointed investors who had asked to cash out 14.7% of their shares. 

It will honor about two thirds less at just 5%, and has gated withdrawals for at least nine months.

The rationed exit is supposed to prevent a stampede for the exits that gating during the first and second quarters was supposed to alleviate.

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Stock prices across the private credit market continue to crater. Apollo’s own common stock closed down 14% year-to-date, far underperforming the S&P 500 at +12% YTD.

Private credit peers are also underperforming their benchmarks year-to-date: Blackstone has lost 22%, Ares is down 24%, KKR is down 23%, Carlyle is down 33%, and Blue Owl has declined 36%.

Year-to-date stock prices of listed private credit companies. Source: TradingView

Apollo Debt Solutions BDC, a private credit fund, is a retail vehicle holding a $25.9 billion portfolio of senior secured loans.

Investors wanted to redeem 11.2% of shares in the first quarter but were told to expect about 45 cents per dollar worth of requests.

In the second quarter, they asked for 16.8% of shares back, yet received just 5%.

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Apollo has even titled its quarterly 5% limitation using corporate jargon. It prefers another name for denials of its customers’ full withdrawal requests: “Quarterly Liquidity: Considered & Intentional.”

Read more: Private credit firms prepare for bank run-type panic by gating investor withdrawals

Private credit redemption requests have piled up

Cliffwater’s $31 billion Corporate Lending Fund similarly limited withdrawals to 5% this month after investors asked for about 16%.

It was that fund’s third consecutive redemption limitation.

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Blackstone also had to limit withdrawals this quarter. Its $77 billion BCRED private credit fund gated third quarter withdrawals at 5%, with requests running at roughly double that threshold.

Another fund, BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund, fielded requests for 11.5% of shares that it will only honor at 5% this quarter.

Apollo tried to recast the ongoing crisis in a positive light for media in August, estimating that many withdrawal requests were simplying carrying over from prior months.

To everyone’s ostensible relief, withdrawals weren’t accelerating in current months. “The vast majority of third-quarter requests reflect investors re-tendering unfulfilled requests from prior quarters,” the company claimed.

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Apollo also tried to highlight its other fundamentals. It booked $200 million in gross subscriptions for the quarter, it said, and reported a net total return of 8.2% since launch.

Industry-wide, analysts at Fitch estimated the US private credit default rate at a record 6.3% for the 12 months ending August 2026. 

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Why Blockchain Startups Need Different Marketing for Institutional Investors

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Most crypto and fintech founders build their marketing for retail audiences first. That’s understandable — retail audiences are large, accessible, and respond to the energy that drives a project’s early community. But when the same founder walks into a family office meeting or pitches an institutional fund carrying materials built for someone else, the results are predictable: polite non-answers, long silences, no term sheet.

Institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals evaluate blockchain companies differently than retail participants do. They have legal teams, compliance officers, and risk committees. They care about regulatory positioning, not roadmaps. They read footnotes. Reaching them requires a different kind of marketing — one built around credibility, precision, and compliance awareness from the ground up.

Positioning: Stop Competing With the Noise

The first problem most blockchain startups have is that their positioning is indistinguishable from thousands of other projects. “Decentralized,” “trustless,” “next-generation” — these words appear on countless project websites and tell an institutional investor nothing useful. At best, they signal that the team communicates for retail traders. At worst, they raise the concern that the project can’t explain itself in plain terms.

Effective positioning for institutional audiences starts with specificity. What problem, exactly, does this company solve? For whom? What is the market size, sourced from identifiable data? What does the competitive landscape actually look like — not dismissively (“we’re better than X”), but in an honest structural analysis of where this company sits?

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A family office managing $200 million doesn’t need to feel excited. It needs to see that the founding team understands the space clearly enough to place a coherent bet on itself.

The table below shows how the two audiences read the same marketing signals differently:

The implication is direct: a company can’t run one marketing program for both audiences. The signals that build retail excitement actively undermine institutional credibility.

Credibility-Building Content: Show Work, Not Vision

Institutional investors don’t respond to vision decks the way early adopters do. They respond to evidence. A content strategy targeting this audience needs to demonstrate expertise, not announce ambition.

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The content formats that carry real weight with institutional readers are specific:

  • Audited white papers — written to a technical standard, with methodology documented and findings signed off by an independent auditor, not internal team members
  • Cited research reports — market analysis, protocol assessments, or competitive reviews thorough enough that other practitioners reference them
  • Trade press bylines — published in Bloomberg, the Financial Times, Reuters, The Block, or CoinDesk’s institutional coverage, not consumer crypto outlets
  • Legal and regulatory memos — brief, factual documents that show the company understands its jurisdictional exposure and has addressed it
  • Team credential materials — structured backgrounds for key hires that surface relevant prior roles: exchange positions, regulatory agency experience, institutional fund management

Leadership credibility is a separate lever. Institutional investors diligence people before they diligence protocols. A CIO who previously ran a prime brokerage desk, or a general counsel who came from a regulatory agency — these are marketing assets. They belong in investor materials, not buried in an about page.

Working with a specialist in blockchain marketing, such as ICODA, often makes sense at this stage because the content standards for institutional audiences differ in kind, not just degree. A generalist agency experienced in SaaS or e-commerce campaigns doesn’t know why a tokenomics paper needs an independent auditor’s sign-off — or why a hedge fund’s compliance officer will kill a deal if the company’s website carries “not financial advice” disclaimers in the footer while the homepage talks about guaranteed yields.

Compliance-Aware Messaging: The Rules Are Part of the Product

This is where most blockchain startups underestimate the problem. Securities law, AML obligations, investor accreditation requirements, and jurisdiction-specific disclosure rules create a constraint landscape that effective institutional marketing has to be built inside — not layered onto afterward.

These are the messaging mistakes that most commonly damage credibility with institutional audiences — and in some cases create direct legal exposure:

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  • Implying returns — any language that suggests historical performance will repeat, or that a yield is predictable, is both a compliance violation and a red flag for legal teams
  • Skipping risk sections — pitch decks or one-pagers that omit regulatory risk, counterparty risk, or liquidity risk read as either naïve or deliberately evasive
  • Using general solicitation channels for restricted offerings — an email campaign or social post promoting a Regulation D private placement to an unqualified audience can void the exemption entirely
  • Inconsistent disclaimers — “not financial advice” in the footer while the homepage describes projected returns signals to compliance reviewers that the team doesn’t understand what the disclaimer actually requires

None of this means messaging has to be evasive. It means it has to be precise. There’s a difference between “our protocol returned 340% to early participants” (a liability) and “here is an independent analysis of how the protocol performed under the following conditions” (a reference document). The second version tells the same story with more substance and less exposure.

Institutional-grade messaging also addresses risk directly. Retail marketing tends to minimize or avoid risk language. Institutional investors expect it. A pitch deck that doesn’t acknowledge regulatory risk, counterparty risk, and liquidity risk reads as either naïve or evasive. A risk section isn’t a weakness — it demonstrates that the team has a mature view of its own business.

The Underlying Issue

The gap between retail crypto marketing and institutional crypto marketing isn’t a matter of tone or production quality. It’s a structural difference in what the audience values, what they’re allowed to respond to, and what professional consequences they face if they back a company that turns out to have operated carelessly.

Institutional capital markets run on reputation and referrals. A firm that impresses a family office once gets introduced to three others. A firm that wastes their time doesn’t get a second meeting.

The companies that close institutional rounds aren’t always the ones with the best technology. They’re the ones that understood who they were talking to and built everything — content, positioning, legal review, distribution channels — around that understanding. That’s not a niche marketing problem. It’s a business problem that marketing is responsible for solving.

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Bab Al-Mandeb Strait Betting Odds Hit 18% as Price Hinges on a Data Trigger

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Bab Al-Mandeb Strait Betting Odds Hit 18% as Price Hinges on a Data Trigger

Polymarket traders are pricing an 18% implied probability that the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait betting odds meet the platform’s definition of “effectively closed” before December 31, 2026, based on the market’s live pricing as of its September 24 update.

The contract does not require any government or naval authority to declare the waterway shut; it resolves Yes only if IMF PortWatch records a seven-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals on any date before the deadline.

SOURCE: Polymarket Bab Al Mandeb Strait Betting Odds

That distinction matters more than the headline number. Shipping through the strait has collapsed by most measures on record, but collapse and the contract’s specific data trigger are not the same thing.

Also, nothing in the available reporting confirms that the seven-day threshold has actually been crossed. Polymarket has run into this same verification gap before on Houthi-linked contracts, where ground-truth confirmation lags the market’s appetite for a clean binary answer.

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Bab Al Mandeb Strait Betting Odds: What Does the Shipping Data Actually Show?

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Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, the port of Mokha, Perim (Mayun) Island, and the Hanish Islands in mid-September, putting the group in control of both shores flanking the strait. No government or maritime authority has declared Bab el-Mandeb closed, but the traffic figures reported since then are stark and inconsistent across time windows.

Anadolu Agency reported on September 17 that only four vessels transited the strait in the preceding 24 hours, against a roughly 33-vessel daily norm, an 88% decline, with oil and chemical tanker traffic down 91% and container ship traffic down 86%.

Six days earlier, the same outlet cited Kpler data putting daily transits at around 26 to 27 vessels, a steep drop from the roughly 70-vessel pre-crisis baseline but nowhere near the four-vessel reading that followed.

Those two figures are not contradictory. They’re different windows capturing different moments in a fast-moving blockade. A single 24-hour count of four vessels is not a seven-day moving average, and a seven-day average sitting anywhere from 15 to 27 vessels a day.

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Have Your Say on the Al Mandeb Strait Closure on Polymarket

The Houthi Claim and the Contract’s Blind Spot

The Houthis maintain they are enforcing a targeted embargo on Saudi-linked shipping while asserting safe passage for other vessels, a claim attributed to the group and not independently verified in the available reporting.

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International statements have emphasized freedom of navigation under UNCLOS, but assurances of safe passage from a party controlling both shores of the strait carry obvious credibility limits that the PortWatch data trigger sidesteps entirely.

That’s the core tension embedded in this market. Geopolitical risk around Bab el-Mandeb is plainly elevated, with rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, rising insurance premiums, and the broader Iran-linked regional conflict all pressuring the corridor.

But the Polymarket contract pays out only on a narrow statistical condition, not on the broader sense that the route has become commercially unusable. Polymarket has drawn this same line before on other geopolitical contracts, where the news cycle outran the specific resolution language written into the market.

Bab Al Mandeb Strait Scenarios Into Year-End

If the IMF PortWatch seven-day average shows 10 or fewer arrivals on a qualifying date before December 31, the Yes side resolves immediately, meaning one bad week could settle the contract.

If arrivals stay in the mid-teens to mid-20s, uncertainty remains without triggering resolution, despite the high war-risk premiums shippers face. Restoring daily counts above 10 would likely reduce the 18% price, though historical reactions to data prints aren’t specified.

The key takeaway for traders is to understand resolution criteria before interpreting headline probabilities, since the 18% price reflects contract specifics rather than the broader situation at Bab el-Mandeb.

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The post Bab Al-Mandeb Strait Betting Odds Hit 18% as Price Hinges on a Data Trigger appeared first on Cryptonews.




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Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall 4% Days Before Starship's Biggest Flight?

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SpaceX stock price chart ahead of share unlock

SpaceX stock fell more than 4% on September 23, one day before a lockup expiration freed about 328 million shares for trading.

The selling pressure comes ahead of Starship Flight 14, the rocket’s first planned trip into Earth orbit and its first revenue-generating mission.

Starship Flight 14 Targets Orbit With Paying Cargo

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on September 24 that the company is preparing for a Monday launch, which falls on September 28. By then, the launch tower’s mechanical arms had already stacked Ship 41 on top of Super Heavy Booster 21.

Until now, every Starship test stayed on a suborbital path by design. This time, the fully assembled 124-meter rocket aims for an orbit roughly 275 kilometers above Earth, SpaceX says. The flight should last nearly 10 hours and circle the planet about six times.

Moreover, the ship will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites instead of dummy mass. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen described the flight as the vehicle’s first revenue-generating mission.

However, SpaceX will not try a tower catch. Both stages are expendable, so the booster will splash down in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, SpaceX plans a deorbit burn that brings the ship down in the Pacific west of Chile.

Why SpaceX Stock Faces Selling Pressure

News of the orbital attempt first lifted shares above $150 in mid-September. Since then, fresh supply has weighed on SpaceX stock. The company releases insider shares in stages rather than all at once, and the first tranche unlocked in August.

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The previous tranche unlocked on September 9, and the stock fell 3.9% that day.

SpaceX stock price chart ahead of share unlock
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Still, the expiration does not force anyone to sell. Instead, the real impact depends on how many insiders cash out. Further tranches are scheduled through June 2027.

On the fundamental side, Wall Street treats Flight 14 as a key proof point. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas holds a Buy rating and a $300 price target, implying about 99% upside. In his view, the market underprices SpaceX’s AI and orbital computing plans.

A clean orbit and satellite deployment would give Starship its first commercial proof. Until then, SpaceX stock looks caught between launch progress and a growing pool of tradable shares.

The post Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall 4% Days Before Starship's Biggest Flight? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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DoubleZero launches Hyperliquid order book feeds on Edge

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can HYPE hit $100 in 2026?

DoubleZero has launched five Hyperliquid data feeds on Edge, giving subscribers a live view of the exchange’s order book and trade[XYZ] markets over dedicated fiber.

Summary

  • Four feeds cover Hyperliquid’s native perpetuals and trade[XYZ] markets, including contracts linked to commodities.
  • A fifth feed carries order intents drawn from Hyperliquid’s mempool transactions.
  • DoubleZero says subscribers receive sequenced data without having to rebuild the order book from public API updates.
  • Hyperliquid joins Solana and Kalshi as the third venue available through Edge.

According to a Sep. 24 announcement from the DoubleZero Foundation shared with crypto.news, the new service delivers Hyperliquid market data in a machine-readable format for trading firms, market makers and quantitative desks. The launch was built with Hyperliquid validator operators and ecosystem partners Hyperion DeFi, MAVAN and Kinetiq.

Subscribers can receive four market data feeds covering Hyperliquid’s native perpetual futures and trade[XYZ] markets under HIP-3, the system that lets outside teams create perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid. A separate feed carries order intents from mempool transactions. Together, the products give firms information they can use in their own pricing, hedging and trading systems, according to DoubleZero.

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The foundation said the feeds are available now through a paid subscription. Its website lists prices, and each subscription includes two IP addresses per region.

Hyperliquid feeds replace work firms did through public APIs

For firms tracking many contracts at once, DoubleZero said, maintaining a current order book has meant collecting public API responses, managing WebSocket connections, and rebuilding the book on their own systems. Changes to Hyperliquid’s public APIs have reduced the update frequency and depth available through those endpoints, according to the announcement.

Edge instead sends subscribers a sequenced feed across DoubleZero’s fiber network. The company says its infrastructure draws on validator operators and partners in Tokyo to provide a view of Hyperliquid’s order book. It describes the service as its fastest commercially available Hyperliquid feed, though the announcement does not include comparative latency measurements.

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The distinction matters for automated systems that act on changes in bids, offers and completed trades. DoubleZero says a delayed or missed update can affect whether a trading strategy fills an order. Its product supplies the data path; firms still use their own systems to decide whether and how to trade.

In a September interview about Kalshi, DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa described Edge as a read-only data service without order-entry or execution functions. That account explains the role the company has assigned to its distribution platform, although the Hyperliquid announcement does not set out separate execution terms for the new feed.

Trade[XYZ] brings commodity markets into the feed

The Hyperliquid package includes trade[XYZ]’s HIP-3 contracts tied to assets such as oil, gold and silver. Unlike a conventional futures contract with an expiration date, a perpetual contract can remain open while funding payments help keep its price close to the reference asset.

The size of those markets gives the data launch a use beyond crypto pairs. A September report covered by crypto.news put trade[XYZ] Q2 volume at $202.36 billion, up 79.2% from the previous quarter, based on research by GLC Research, Four Pillars, Arrakis and GRZ Research. The report also estimated that trade[XYZ] accounted for 95.1% of HIP-3 trading volume during the quarter. Those figures came from external research, rather than audited company results.

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DoubleZero said Hyperliquid as a whole processed more than $662 billion in trading volume in Q2. Its launch statement presents the growth of crypto and asset-linked perpetuals as a reason firms need a consistent stream of market data, particularly when the contracts continue trading outside the hours of established exchanges.

“When traditional markets are closed, oil and other assets still trade, they just trade somewhere else,” Federa said in the announcement. He compared Edge’s publish-once distribution model with the market data systems used by NYSE, Nasdaq and CME.

DoubleZero adds Hyperliquid after Kalshi and Solana

Hyperliquid is the third venue on Edge. In August, Kalshi opened its order book to Edge subscribers, starting with Level 1 and Level 2 data for sports contracts and crypto perpetual futures. Level 1 covers the best bid and ask and completed trades; Level 2 shows orders at multiple prices. DoubleZero had earlier introduced Edge with Solana validator data.

The Kalshi rollout also showed how DoubleZero distributes venue data: a publisher sends information once, and the network delivers it to connected subscribers. Hyperliquid adds another source to that service, with feeds spanning its native contracts and markets operated by an outside HIP-3 deployer.

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Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said his firm is participating in the launch alongside Kinetiq and MAVAN. DoubleZero named the three as ecosystem partners but did not assign each one a separate technical role in the announcement.

U.S. energy proposal remains before the CFTC

The Hyperliquid feeds include markets relevant to a U.S. regulatory debate, though a market data subscription does not, by itself, authorize trading a contract in the United States. In August, Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] asked the CFTC to permit regulated perpetuals tied to West Texas Intermediate crude, Brent crude and Henry Hub natural gas. Their filing argued that continuous contracts could let U.S. firms manage energy exposure during weekends.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission was reviewing questions about continuous energy trading and perpetual contract design, including reference prices, surveillance, margin and customer safeguards. The agency had not approved the proposed energy products when the groups submitted their filing in August.

DoubleZero’s announcement also referred to an August signal from the U.S. president about a possible compliant path for Hyperliquid. It did not identify an approval, a launch date for U.S. trading, or a change to the platform’s existing access rules.

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For the present launch, DoubleZero says the five Hyperliquid feeds are available by subscription through its website, with two subscriber IP addresses included per region.



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Crypto investment firm RockawayX puts $150M behind push for trade finance, private credit onchain

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Crypto investment firm RockawayX puts $150M behind push for trade finance, private credit onchain

The next big opportunity is in assets that offer higher returns and behave differently from crypto markets, CEO Viktor Fischer said in an interview with CoinDesk.

“Our thesis going forward that after trading, yield will be the largest use case onchain” Fischer said. For that, “we need new sources of yield, 12% plus, uncorrelated to crypto,” he added.

Catapult will focus on areas including trade and supply-chain finance, specialty asset-backed securities, CLOs and real-estate-related credit.

Fischer said the appeal of putting less-liquid assets onchain is that market makers can create an exit even when the underlying investment has lengthy redemption periods.

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RockawayX is looking for traditional finance professionals who know how to originate and underwrite those assets, then pair them with crypto-native operators who can help structure and distribute them onchain.

“The hard part of RWAs was never tokenization. It’s everything after: who buys the asset, where it trades and what happens when someone needs to get out,” Fischer said.



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NEAR Crypto Tokenized Stock Launch Puts Distribution Ahead of Scale

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NEAR crypto and Ondo Finance offer 20 tokenized stocks and ETFs to eligible non-US users, with cross-chain access planned

NEAR crypto and Ondo Finance have launched access to tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on near.com, opening with 20 assets including Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, SPY and QQQ.

Eligible users fund their accounts with stablecoins or other supported crypto from more than 30 networks, with NEAR Intents acting as the cross-chain distribution layer that can eventually route these tokenized securities to connected wallets, applications, and DeFi protocols.

The launch is a distribution story before it is an asset-count story. Ondo’s broader tokenized stocks platform already lists more than 100 stocks and ETFs, according to Ondo’s own documentation, but NEAR’s initial rollout exposes only a fifth of that catalog through Near.com.

NEAR Crypto and the Multichain Route to Ondo Stocks

Near.com functions as the initial user-facing surface for this integration, while NEAR Intents is positioned separately as the cross-chain routing layer, according to the launch material from Ondo Finance.

That distinction matters: near.com is where users open accounts and trade, while NEAR Intents is the plumbing intended to eventually let other wallets and DeFi protocols surface the same real-world assets to their own users.

Ondo’s own documentation describes the broader Ondo Stocks platform as offering more than 100 tokenized stocks and ETFs, spanning individual equities, indexes such as QQQ and SPY, and fixed-income ETFs like TLT, TIP and AGG.

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The 20-asset NEAR selection is a subset of that catalog, not a replacement, and Ondo has said the full app at app.ondo.finance remains the reference point for the complete list.

Purchases run through USDon, a stablecoin Ondo says is backed 1:1 by a U.S. dollar held in an Ondo Stocks brokerage account. When a user buys with a different stablecoin, the platform atomically swaps it into USDon before executing the tokenized stock purchase.

It then reverses the process on redemption, a mechanic Ondo’s documentation frames as designed to keep the buy-and-sell flow instant rather than dependent on settlement windows.

How Users Access the Initial Offering

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The reported flow is straightforward: an eligible near.com user deposits stablecoins or other supported crypto from any of the more than 30 connected networks, then swaps directly into an available tokenized stock or ETF in a single transaction.

That collapses what would normally be a multi-step bridging-and-onboarding process into one action inside the near.com interface. The current selection is capped at 20 assets, not the full Ondo catalog, and the source material doesn’t publish a complete list beyond the named examples.

Traders looking for a specific ticker outside that initial set should check current availability directly rather than assume parity with Ondo’s broader 100-plus offering.

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Why Distribution, Not Asset Count, Is the Main Change

NEAR crypto and Ondo Finance offer 20 tokenized stocks and ETFs to eligible non-US users, with cross-chain access planned
SOURCE: TradingView

The more consequential piece of this launch is the routing layer, not the ticker list. NEAR Intents is a cross-chain distribution mechanism that can push Ondo’s tokenized equities to wallets, applications, and DeFi protocols beyond near.com itself, meaning the 20-asset figure is a starting point for a pipe built to widen, not a ceiling.

Ondo currently restricts its tokenized securities to names trading on the NYSE and NASDAQ, though its documentation leaves room to expand to other countries’ exchanges over time.

Other issuers are pursuing distribution through different rails; Robinhood’s tokenized-stock push on its own chain is a useful comparison point for how competing platforms are structuring access, though the mechanics differ enough that a direct read-across isn’t warranted here.

What are the Eligibility and Jurisdiction Limits for the Near Crypto Ondo Stocks?

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None of this is available to US persons. Ondo’s documentation states plainly that Ondo Stocks products are offered only to organizations and individuals outside the United States and other prohibited jurisdictions, subject to its own eligibility criteria, and that the products are not accessible in certain regions at all.

These are tokenized exposures to NYSE and NASDAQ-listed securities, not shares held in a conventional brokerage account, and regulators are still working out how to treat that distinction across jurisdictions.

The broader US regulatory posture toward tokenized equities remains unsettled, and nothing in this launch changes that for US-based traders.

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IBM Links Digital Asset Haven to Swift Ledger for Tokenized Deposits

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IBM opens beta Swift ledger link for 24/7 tokenized deposits

IBM opens beta Swift ledger link for 24/7 tokenized deposits

IBM’s beta link lets banks instruct tokenized deposit transfers on Swift’s ledger using existing payment messages and compliance processes.



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Fed Rate Cut Delayed as Strong Jobs Data Tests Bitcoin

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Citi sees the Fed first rate cut in June 2027 after 162,000 August jobs, while Bitcoin ETF inflows show demand despite higher yields.

Citigroup pushed its forecast for the Fed first interest rate cut to June 2027 after US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple the 53,000 economists had penciled in. The revision extends the timeline for lower borrowing costs by nine months.

Now, it opens a question Bitcoin traders have been circling all year: how much longer can a resilient labor market keep real yields, the dollar, and interest rates elevated before it actually breaks risk-asset demand?

The August payrolls report did more than beat expectations on the headline number. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, labor-force participation rose 0.2 percentage point, and prior months were revised sharply higher: July payrolls flipped from a reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000, while June was revised up by 11,000.

Citi sees the Fed first rate cut in June 2027 after 162,000 August jobs, while Bitcoin ETF inflows show demand despite higher yields.

Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark concluded that employment conditions looked stable enough for the Federal Reserve to shift its attention squarely to inflation.

Citi had previously been one of the more dovish desks on Wall Street, calling for cuts in October and December 2026 and January 2027. That call is gone. The bank now projects reductions in June, September, and December 2027, and the market reaction was immediate: rate futures pushed the probability of a September Fed hike from 52% to 61% the day the jobs data landed, a repricing that rattled Bitcoin within hours.

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What Does the Higher-for-Longer Policy Mean for Bitcoin?

The Fed followed through. On September 16, the Fed raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4% target range, the first hike since July 2023, despite traders wanting a cut. Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one more increase before year-end, and inflation has now sat above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, according to the Fed’s own framing of the data.

The mechanical case against Bitcoin here is straightforward: Treasury yields and a stronger dollar compete with risk assets for capital, and Bitcoin generates no yield simply by being held, so every basis point of delay in cuts raises the opportunity cost of parking capital in it instead of government debt.

This is the textbook crypto liquidity headwind, and it showed up in price. But the textbook case stopped predicting price action the moment the hike actually landed.

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Bitcoin briefly dropped toward $75,000 immediately after the September 16 decision, then reversed and climbed past $86,000 as ETF demand returned, yields eased and short sellers were squeezed out of bearish positions, a pattern consistent with BTC’s prior recoveries when yields soften. That rebound can’t be pinned on a single cause, and it doesn’t prove Bitcoin has decoupled from monetary policy. It does prove that a rate hike alone isn’t a mechanical sell signal once other flows are running in the opposite direction.

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Bitcoin Levels, Flows, and Citi Fed Rate Cut Expectation

The price path around these events is the clearest evidence of how sensitive BTC remains to macro surprises. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 right after the August jobs release, reversing from an intraday high near $81,370, and was later quoted near $79,600, down about 1.5% on the day.

Ahead of the September Fed meeting, as hike odds moved above 92%, BTC fell below $76,000 before the post-decision dip toward $75,000 and the subsequent climb to a brief touch of $87,000, per the latest price action review.

Flow data backs up the recovery narrative. US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $433 million in net inflows on September 18 after a stretch of heavy withdrawals earlier that week, suggesting institutional demand re-engaged once the hike was priced in rather than feared.

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For us, the actionable variables are the same ones that moved Bitcoin twice in the past month: real yields, Treasury yields, dollar strength, spot ETF flows, and the next round of inflation and payroll prints.

If labor data stays firm and inflation proves sticky, a higher-for-longer stance keeps yields elevated and tightens the liquidity backdrop for crypto. If yields ease and ETF demand persists, Bitcoin can keep absorbing hawkish surprises well before Citi’s June 2027 cut ever arrives.

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Solana Foundation Names Conlan Strategy Chief, Raees Payments GM

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Cointelegraph

Solana Foundation has appointed former Binance chief marketing officer Rachel Conlan as chief strategy officer and former Polygon Labs executive Jamal Raees as general manager of payments.

Conlan will lead strategy across institutional partnerships, ecosystem growth and efforts to bring businesses onto Solana, the foundation said Thursday. She spent three years at Binance and previously held senior roles at OKX, CAA Sports and Havas.

Raees said he would deepen the foundation’s engagement with major payments companies and focus on infrastructure used by teams building payment services on Solana.

“My focus will be on driving greater adoption and usage of stablecoins and tokenized deposits, with an emphasis on global markets,” he said in a statement provided by Solana Foundation.

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The appointments follow the March launch of the Solana Developer Platform, which includes Modern Treasury as a payments infrastructure partner. Mastercard and Western Union were named as early users of the platform.

Separately, Amazon Web Services included Solana among the networks supported by its x402 feature, which lets website owners charge AI agents in USDC for access to content.

Solana is preparing to deploy Alpenglow, a planned network upgrade intended to reduce transaction finality from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds. The faster finality remains a target for the upgrade.

The network has processed more than $5 trillion in stablecoin volume so far in 2026. It also reported more than $4.5 billion in real-world assets on the network and more than $620 million in tokenized equity supply.

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Related: Era of pure crypto exchanges is ending, Bybit CEO says

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Solana news: Solana Foundation hires Binance, Polygon veterans for tokenized finance push

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Solana news: Solana Foundation hires Binance, Polygon veterans for tokenized finance push

The Solana Foundation has appointed former Binance executive Rachel Conlan as its new chief strategy officer, adding a high-profile crypto industry veteran as the Solana (SOL) blockchain makes a bigger push into institutional finance and tokenized assets.

Conlan will lead strategy across institutional partnerships, ecosystem growth and efforts to bring more companies onto Solana, the foundation said Thursday. She spent previously three years at Binance, most recently as global chief marketing officer, before leaving the crypto exchange in June.

The foundation also hired Jamal Raees as general manager for payments. Raees joins from Polygon Labs, the development organization behind the Polygon network (POL), and previously worked at stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge (now part of Stripe) and crypto payments firm Wyre. He will focus on getting payments companies and other businesses to use Solana for moving money.

The appointments come as Solana increasingly courts traditional financial firms and positions its network as infrastructure for more than crypto trading. Stablecoin payments, tokenized funds and equities have become a bigger part of that pitch as financial institutions experiment with moving assets and settlement onto public blockchains.

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