Bitcoin never posted a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market, and the June 2026 low held above that aggregate cost basis. If price holds above the True Market Mean near $77,000, the June low becomes the shallowest bear-market bottom in Glassnode’s comparison set stretching back to 2017.

Bitcoin’s current bear-market phase has looked ugly on a headline-percentage basis at times this year, but the realized-price metric measures something narrower: whether the average holder, in aggregate, was ever underwater. In the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles, Bitcoin price traded below the realized price for months at a stretch. This time, it didn’t happen once on a closing basis.

Glassnode’s data shows that the Percent Supply in Profit fell to roughly the same level at the June low as at the November 2022 bottom; a comparable share of coins was sitting at a loss. The difference is in magnitude. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, which tracks the aggregate paper gain or loss across the entire supply, stayed positive throughout the cycle. In 2018 and 2022, NUPL collapsed deep into negative territory as the market flipped into aggregate loss.

Smaller losses generally translate into less structural pressure to sell, which helps explain why this drawdown didn’t produce the kind of forced capitulation seen in prior cycles. It doesn’t mean downside risk is off the table. It means the aggregate cost-basis damage has been narrower this time, a pattern consistent with the on-chain accumulation signals that have shown up alongside this recovery.

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The Levels That Decide the Thesis

Price now trades above the True Market Mean near $77,000 and above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, both of which capped rallies for most of 2026. The largest nearby long-term-holder supply cluster sits at $84,000–$85,000, just above the current price.

The next major resistance at the mean MVRV price of $96,700. This is the level where the average holder’s unrealized profit returns to its long-run norm.

Options positioning on Deribit reinforces the upper boundary. Positive gamma has built up sharply near $95,000, while negative gamma sits between spot and $92,000. This can be read that dealer hedging tends to accelerate moves in that lower band and slow them once the price approaches the mean MVRV zone.

Holding above $84,000 keeps the path to $96,700 open; a drop back below it puts $77,000 back in play, and a break of that level would undercut the shallow-bear-market read entirely.

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Bitcoin Price, ETF Flows, and Volume

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in approximately $1.3 billion over the five trading days since the current squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows, with the most recent day marking the largest single inflow since early July, per Glassnode.

It was a meaningful reversal after a stretch where flows had weakened, and it lines up with an institutional bid that didn’t exist during the 2018 or 2022 downturns, a structural difference worth weighing against any Federal Reserve policy shifts that could swing that flow in either direction.

Spot volume across exchanges more than doubled off its August trough, up 121% since the rally began. Every prior volume expansion from late 2025 through mid-2026 came on a leg down, marking capitulatory selling. August broke that pattern as the first spike in a year to coincide with rising Bitcoin price.

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The seven-day average still sits roughly 30% below year-ago levels, so this reads as recovery off a floor rather than a full return to 2025 conditions.

Weekly realized profit-taking during this run remains a fraction of what it was at the 2024 and 2025 tops, even though almost all short-term holders are now sitting in profit. That’s the bullish read: holders aren’t rushing to lock in gains despite the setup.

A rise toward those 2024–2025 realized-profit levels would flag that recent buyers are converting the rally into exit liquidity, which is the first sign the thesis is weakening.

This cycle’s low was the mildest since 2017, as realized-price impairment falls apart, and the market reverts to a more conventional test of support.

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When prompted, the Elon Musk-backed Grok AI predicts a bold move for Ethereum (ETH) over the remainder of 2026. It claims that if a full-blown crypto market returns in Q4, ETH could hit $12,000 by January 1, 2027.

ETH is currently trading near $2,600–$2,725. This outlook leans bullish relative to many base-case forecasts, which often cluster lower in the $4,000–$6,000 range.

This aligns with more optimistic institutional and analyst views that see multi-thousand-dollar upside if liquidity returns, ETF inflows accelerate, demand for staking and tokenization grows, and Ethereum continues to capture value from stablecoins, DeFi, and real-world assets.

The core premise is a return to strong risk-on conditions in late 2026, fueled by improving macro liquidity, sustained institutional demand, and Ethereum’s role as settlement infrastructure.

Historical patterns suggest ETH could rise from around $2,500 to its previous all-time high of ~$4,800–$5,000, potentially reaching the $10k+ zone by early 2027.

While this is not guaranteed due to crypto’s volatility, a bullish scenario suggests ETH might trade between $9,000–$12,000 by January 1, 2027, with $10,000–$11,000 as a central target.

Claude AI Opus 5 Predicts ETH to Hit $12K: Does the Technical Analysis Agree?

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On higher timeframes, ETH has been consolidating after a significant drawdown from 2025 highs, holding above key demand zones in the $2,500–$2,700 region while testing near-term resistance around $2,720.

A sustained break and weekly close above the $2,700–$2,800 area (with volume confirmation) would flip the intermediate structure bullish, opening measured-move and Fibonacci extension targets toward the prior cycle high near $4,800–$5,000.

In a full bull-market environment, that reclaim often acts as a launchpad; subsequent continuation could target the 1.618–2.0 extension zones from the multi-year base, which project into the $8,000–$12,000 range.

Momentum indicators (such as a rising RSI from neutral/oversold territory on the weekly chart and positive divergence on longer timeframes) would reinforce the upside once the downtrend structure breaks.

Key supports to hold on any retests would be the $2,300–$2,500 demand zone and the rising 200-week moving average region; losing either would invalidate the near-term bullish path.

Overall, the chart setup favors a multi-leg advance if risk appetite returns, consistent with historical post-consolidation breakouts in prior Ethereum bull cycles.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Ethereum Tests Key Levels

A +4% weekly gain feels good if already positioned. For anyone buying Ethereum fresh over $2,500, the math is less exciting. A move to $12,000 from here is around +400% upside, solid, but not the kind of asymmetric return that built early crypto fortunes.

Now, the same reasoning pushed capital toward earlier-stage infrastructure plays, and Bitcoin’s own scaling limitations (still slow, still expensive for anything beyond simple transfers) are exactly the gap projects like Bitcoin Hyper are built to fill.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with native SVM integration, aiming for execution speeds faster than Solana while settling back to Bitcoin’s base layer.

The presale has raised more than $33.1M at a current token price of $0.0136867, with staking APY available for early participants.

Its decentralized canonical bridge handles BTC transfers without custodial intermediaries, and traders can research Bitcoin Hyper directly on the presale page.

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Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, told CNBC News that Ripple is going after the cross-border payments turf long dominated by SWIFT, reviving a comparison that has trailed XRP for years without ever being tested at institutional scale. The remark says more about how a prominent crypto investor frames competitive positioning in payments than about how much of Ripple’s actual settlement volume runs through the XRP token itself.

Morehead made the comment during a Squawk Box segment that also touched on Solana’s transaction throughput and Bitcoin’s role as digital gold. He described Ripple’s SWIFT ambition as one of several major blockchain use cases shaping the industry, not as an imminent takeover of the network banks rely on for cross-border messaging.

SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, functions as the dominant messaging system connecting financial institutions across borders, it coordinates payment instructions between banks. Ripple has spent years building infrastructure aimed at offering faster, cheaper settlement as an alternative to the correspondent-banking chain.

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Per Ripple’s own cross-border payments page, its platform supports RLUSD, USDC, USDT, or fiat, “whichever asset your business requires,” and the company states its settlement layer is decoupled from any single issuer’s token. That is a direct architectural admission that XRP is one option among several in the payment flow.

Ripple’s site also reports payout access across more than 60 markets and cumulative processed volume above $100 billion. Those are company-reported figures, and they say nothing about what share of that volume actually settled in XRP versus stablecoins or fiat rails. The gap between enterprise-scale numbers and token-specific usage is exactly where the SWIFT comparison breaks down.

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News on Enterprise Progress vs. XRP Demand

This gap has shadowed Ripple since the SEC filed its lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging XRP constituted an unregistered security. Ripple secured a partial win in 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP was not a security when sold to retail investors on public exchanges, though the broader regulatory picture around institutional sales remained unresolved.

Throughout that fight, Ripple kept expanding its payments network and partner list. This is a track record investors have repeatedly treated as a signal for XRP’s price, even when the two move independently.

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That habit of reading corporate wins as token catalysts shows up elsewhere in Ripple’s current push. Reports on Ripple’s AI-payments integration with Stripe generated similar optimism without settling how much of that flow touches XRP specifically, and the question of whether payment-network growth translates into token demand isn’t unique to Ripple.

Ripple’s own materials, including its explainer on how it utilizes XRP in cross-border payments, describe a hybrid model where digital assets act as bridge currencies alongside stablecoins and fiat conversion, useful for reducing pre-funding requirements, but not proof that XRP carries the majority of the flow.

Morehead’s recognition of Ripple’s SWIFT ambition is real institutional validation of the company’s strategy. It is not a substitute for Ripple disclosing what fraction of its payment volume actually settles in the token, and until that number surfaces, the SWIFT comparison remains a narrative rather than a measured outcome.

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Ethereum remains in a constructive broader structure despite cooling off after its latest rally. ETH is consolidating below $2.7K after rejection from the $2.75K-$2.82K resistance zone, while the daily moving averages are approaching a potentially important bullish crossover.

ETH Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum’s structure remains bullish following the explosive breakout from the $1.85K-$1.92K demand zone in August. Since then, the market has established a sequence of higher lows, with the ascending trendline continuing to provide structural support.

The latest rally pushed ETH directly into the major $2.75K-$2.82K resistance zone, where selling pressure emerged and prevented an immediate breakout. The asset has since stabilized around $2.69K rather than undergoing a correction, suggesting buyers are still maintaining control of the broader structure.

Another notable development is the convergence of the two displayed moving averages. The faster yellow average is rising sharply toward the slower orange average around the $2.05K-$2.10K region. If the faster average crosses above the slower one, it would form a golden cross and provide further technical confirmation that the medium-term trend has shifted in favor of buyers. However, the crossover has not occurred yet and therefore remains a potential signal rather than a confirmed one.

A daily breakout above the $2.75K-$2.82K resistance zone could open the door toward the next major supply area around $2.90K-$3K. Meanwhile, the $2.36K-$2.52K zone, reinforced by the rising trendline, represents the key support area if a deeper pullback develops.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows ETH compressing immediately beneath the $2.75K-$2.82K resistance area. Following the rejection from roughly $2.8K, the price briefly dipped toward $2.63K before recovering and entering a tight consolidation around $2.68K-$2.70K.

At the same time, the rising trendline connecting the recent higher lows is gradually approaching price. This creates a tightening structure between ascending support and the overhead resistance zone. As long as ETH remains above this trendline, short-term momentum appears constructive, and another challenge of $2.75K-$2.82K remains plausible.

A confirmed breakout above $2.82K would strengthen the continuation scenario toward the $2.90K-$3K resistance zone. Conversely, losing the ascending trendline could trigger a deeper correction, initially putting the $2.43K-$2.49K demand zone back into focus. Below there, the larger $2.21K-$2.28K support area would become relevant.

Sentiment Analysis

The one-week Binance ETH/USDT liquidation heatmap shows significant concentrations of leveraged positions on both sides of the current price, although the most prominent nearby liquidity is above the market.

A particularly dense liquidation cluster has developed around $2.78K-$2.82K, closely overlapping with the technical resistance visible on both price charts. This makes the area especially important. If ETH manages to break above resistance, the liquidation concentration could act as a magnet and potentially amplify the move as short positions are forced out.

On the downside, another substantial liquidity pool is visible around $2.60K-$2.62K. Therefore, failure to break higher and a loss of short-term support could draw the price toward this region first.

Overall, Ethereum is effectively caught between downside liquidity near $2.6K and a larger overhead cluster around $2.8K. Combined with the tightening 4-hour structure and the potential daily golden cross, a decisive break from the current consolidation could lead to a notable expansion in volatility.

The post Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Eyes $3K, but These Major Hurdles Stand in the Way appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Investors looking to boost their exposure to artificial intelligence should target China, according to Matthews Asia portfolio manager Andrew Mattock.

He said investors will need a more deliberate approach because broad emerging market strategies won’t be that effective.

“Investors need to be aware when they buy an emerging market fund or when they buy a plain vanilla MSCI product… they’re not getting a lot of it,” Mattock told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “The big piece that you are missing… is the Chinese piece.”

He noted that companies from South Korea and Taiwan comprise almost half of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) while the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) lacks a focus on AI stocks.

Mattock is behind the Matthews China Fund (MCHFX). The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in the common and preferred stocks of companies located in China, according to the firm’s website.

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The fund is off 4% so far this year, as of Friday’s close. Its largest holdings include Tencent and Alibaba.

Flashback to Tepper’s buy ‘everything’ in China call

It appears investing in China is seeing a meaningful shift.

Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, found the world’s second economy attractive again – telling CNBC in September 2024 that he bought more of “everything” related to China.

However, KraneShares’ Brendan Ahern recommended that investors consider strategies that could protect them from wild market swings in China.

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“I like the idea of utilizing options around some of those ETFs… like with KWEB [KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF],” the firm’s chief investment officer said in the same interview.

“Why do some of these hedge funds gravitate to these ETFs? Because they’re able to write a call and principally protect themselves,” he added. “Give themselves some downside.”

According to FactSet, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF has the same top two holdings as the Matthews China Fund: Tencent and Alibaba. But as of Friday’s close, the fund is down more than 27% so far this year.

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The US and China now have a hotline for artificial intelligence (AI). The White House announced it on Friday, after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington.

Whether the line slows the AI race is another question. Washington says its own AI push will not ease off.

A Cold War-Style Phone Line for AI

According to the White House document, a new US-China Super Intelligence Dialogue will study the risks and benefits of AI. The first talks are due by November. A separate channel will handle AI incidents.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, explained the channel with a Cold War comparison.

“I think of like the red phone between the Kremlin and the White House during the Cold War,” CBS reported.

Xi said AI should develop “always under human control,” according to CBS.

However, hours before the talks, Trump posted a different message on Truth Social.

“Super Intelligence (SI) will be a big topic of discussion, but I want to leave it exactly where it is. That is China’s position also. Our guardrail is the DOJ!”

Still, talking does not mean slowing down. BeInCrypto reported on September 16 that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had opened AI risk talks with China. At the same time, he insisted the US would not slow its own AI work.

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China Is Closing In on a Fraction of the Money

The spending gap is huge. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index found that private investors put $285.9 billion into American AI in 2025. China’s private total was $12.4 billion. The report notes that government funding would likely push China’s real figure higher.

The performance gap is tiny. As of March, the best US model led its top Chinese rival by just 2.7%, according to Stanford.

Britain Tells Its Own Staff to Use Less AI

The hotline comes as Britain takes the opposite approach at home. Draft guidance on the UK government’s AI Knowledge Hub tells official teams to use AI only when needed. The aim is to cut its environmental impact.

Staff should first ask whether a spreadsheet or search engine can do the job. If they do need AI, they should pick the smallest model that works, such as Gemini Flash over Gemini Pro.

Prompts should be short and few. The guidance even says “you don’t need to say thankyou.” Staff must also check AI answers for accuracy and disclose when AI helped create or edit content.

Trump and Xi meet again in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen. The first AI talks are due by then.

The post US and China Open Cold War-Style AI Hotline appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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