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AI disruption could hit credit markets next, UBS analyst says

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AI disruption could hit credit markets next, UBS analyst says

Mesh Cube | Istock | Getty Images

The stock market has been quick to punish software firms and other perceived losers from the artificial intelligence boom in recent weeks, but credit markets are likely to be the next place where AI disruption risk shows up, according to UBS analyst Matthew Mish.

Tens of billions of dollars in corporate loans are likely to default over the next year as companies, especially software and data services firms owned by private equity, get squeezed by the AI threat, Mish said in a Wednesday research note.

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“We’re pricing in part of what we call a rapid, aggressive disruption scenario,” Mish, UBS head of credit strategy, told CNBC in an interview.

The UBS analyst said he and his colleagues have rushed to update their forecasts for this year and beyond because the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI have sped up expectations of the arrival of AI disruption.

“The market has been slow to react because they didn’t really think it was going to happen this fast,” Mish said. “People are having to recalibrate the whole way that they look at evaluating credit for this disruption risk, because it’s not a ’27 or ’28 issue.”

Investor concerns around AI boiled over this month as the market shifted from viewing the technology as a rising tide story for technology companies to more of a winner-take-all dynamic where Anthropic, OpenAI and others threaten incumbents. Software firms were hit first and hardest, but a rolling series of selloffs hit sectors as disparate as finance, real estate and trucking.

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In his note, Mish and other UBS analysts lay out a baseline scenario in which borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit see a combined $75 billion to $120 billion in fresh defaults by the end of this year.

CNBC calculated those figures by using Mish’s estimates for increases of up to 2.5% and up to 4% in defaults for leveraged loans and private credit, respectively, by late 2026. Those are markets which he estimates to be $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in size.

‘Credit crunch’?

But Mish also highlighted the possibility of a more sudden, painful AI transition in which defaults jump by twice the estimates for his base assumption, cutting off funding for many companies, he said. The scenario is what’s known in Wall Street jargon as a “tail risk.”

“The knock-on effect will be that you will have a credit crunch in loan markets,” he said. “You will have a broad repricing of leveraged credit, and you will have a shock to the system coming from credit.”

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While the risks are rising, they will be governed by the timing of AI adoption by large corporations, the pace of AI model improvements and other uncertain factors, according to the UBS analyst.

“We’re not yet calling for that tail-risk scenario, but we are moving in that direction,” he said.

Leveraged loans and private credit are generally considered among the riskier corners of corporate credit, since they often finance below-investment-grade companies, many of them backed by private equity and carrying higher levels of debt.

When it comes to the AI trade, companies can be placed into three broad categories, according to Mish: The first are creators of the foundational large language models such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are startups but could soon be large, publicly traded companies.

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The second are investment-grade software firms like Salesforce and Adobe that have robust balance sheets and can implement AI to fend off challengers.

The last category is the cohort of private equity-owned software and data services companies with relatively high levels of debt.

“The winners of this entire transformation — if it really becomes, as we’re increasingly believing, a rapid and very disruptive or severe [change] — the winners are least likely to come from that third bucket,” Mish said.

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Leading with Service and Grit

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Leading with Service and Grit

Success does not always follow a straight line. For Brian Hagerty, it has been built shift by shift, team by team, and lesson by lesson.

From growing up in Monroe Township, New Jersey, to leading multiple restaurant locations as a district manager, Hagerty’s career has centered on one core idea: take care of people, and the rest will follow.

“I learned early on that service is about respect,” he says. “If you respect your team and your customers, you can build something strong.”

This is the story of how he brought that idea to life.

Early Life in Monroe Township, New Jersey

Brian Hagerty was raised in Monroe Township by his parents, Mary Ann and Stuart Hagerty. His early years were active and structured. He played soccer and ran track in high school. Sports taught him discipline and teamwork.

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“Track showed me that results come from daily effort,” he says. “You don’t win on race day. You win in practice.”

Outside of sports, music became another outlet. He learned to play guitar and piano. That creative side would later help him connect with people from all walks of life.

After graduating from Monroe Township High School, he attended Coastal Carolina University. During college, he supported St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, an experience that shaped his view of responsibility and community.

“It felt important to give back,” he says. “Even small actions matter.”

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How Brian Hagerty Built Leadership Skills at Waffle House

Hagerty’s career in the service industry began at Waffle House. What started as a job became a proving ground.

He worked his way up to district manager. In that role, he oversaw multiple locations. He focused on operations, training, and culture.

“My job wasn’t just about numbers,” he says. “It was about building teams that could run strong without me standing there.”

He believed that consistency was the key to scale. That meant clear expectations. Strong associate training. And steady communication.

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“If you train people the right way from day one, you don’t have to fix problems later,” he explains.

Hagerty worked to maintain standards across stores. He developed associates into leaders. He emphasized accountability but also support.

“People perform better when they feel prepared,” he says. “Training is not an expense. It’s protection.”

His management style was direct but steady. He valued systems. But he also valued people.

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From District Manager to Professional Bartender

After his time in upper management, Hagerty shifted into bartending. It may seem like a step back on paper. In practice, it was a shift in focus.

Bartending allowed him to work face-to-face with customers again. It also let him apply his leadership mindset in a different way.

“Bartending is operations in real time,” he says. “You manage speed, quality, and personality all at once.”

He built a reputation as a top-tier bartender. Not because of flash. But because of consistency.

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“You don’t need tricks,” he says. “You need timing and attention.”

The move showed his flexibility. He understood that leadership is not about title. It is about execution.

Lessons in Service Industry Management and Training

Over the years, Hagerty has developed clear views on service industry success.

First, culture drives performance.

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“If your associates feel ignored, your customers will feel it too,” he says.

Second, systems reduce chaos.

“Busy shifts don’t scare me,” he says. “Disorganized shifts do.”

Third, leadership requires presence.

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“When you’re in management, you can’t hide in the office,” he says. “You have to be on the floor.”

These ideas are not abstract. They came from years of long hours, high-pressure shifts, and real-time problem solving.

He believes strong training creates freedom. When associates understand standards, managers can focus on growth instead of constant correction.

“Maintenance is part of leadership,” he says. “You don’t just train once and walk away.”

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Life Outside of Work: Family, Nature, and Music

Outside of the service industry, Hagerty focuses on family and balance. He enjoys nature and spending time at the beach. Music remains part of his life. So does fatherhood.

“Taking care of my children is the most important job I have,” he says.

The structure he learned from sports and the patience he developed in management now carry into his personal life.

He believes in showing up consistently. At work. At home. In the community.

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What’s Next for Brian Hagerty?

At this stage, Brian Hagerty is not defined by a job title. He is defined by experience.

His career shows that leadership is portable. The skills built in one environment can transfer to another. Systems thinking. Team development. Operational awareness. Customer focus.

“I’ve always tried to bring big ideas down to simple actions,” he says. “Train well. Communicate clearly. Show respect.”

Those ideas may sound straightforward. But in fast-paced service environments, they are often the difference between chaos and control.

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Brian Hagerty’s story is not about hype. It is about steady growth. About learning how to lead. About understanding that success is built through people.

And in the service industry, people are everything.

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LARRY KUDLOW: Is John F. Kennedy having a comeback?

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LARRY KUDLOW: Is John F. Kennedy having a comeback?

So let me get this right. After every Democrat in the House and Senate who voted against One, Big, Beautiful Bill — and therefore promoted a roughly $5 trillion tax hike — now a couple of presidential wannabees, like Senators Cory Booker and Chris Van Hollen, are surfacing plans that would end most income taxes for middle-class Americans, this according to a Wall Street Journal news story. The two men have somewhat differing plans, but basically, as I understand it, they would be raising the standard deduction and some other credits, so the first $75,000 of income would not be taxable.

So, are the Democrats possibly rediscovering tax cuts? Is the ghost of John F. Kennedy, who was the last Democratic president to lower tax rates and usher in supply-side economics, is the Kennedy ghost suddenly hovering over their shoulder? Are they admitting that President Trump was right as he walloped them in 2024 with across-the-board tax cuts, no tax on tips, or overtime, big breaks for seniors, et cetera. 

Now I don’t agree with the specifics of the Democratic plan, we’ll talk about it in a minute. But even the merest hint that Democrats believe lower taxes, at least for some people, are better than higher taxes for everybody, might be a good thing. Just maybe.

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Now, what Booker and Van Hollen are doing is basically raising the standard deduction on middle-class earners somewhere around $75,000 to $100,000 a year. I’m oversimplifying, but that’s the gist of it. Now here’s the problem, they want to significantly raise taxes on successful earners, upper end earners.

According to the Journal article, Mr. Van Hollen calls for a surtax that climbs as high as 12 percent above existing taxes, which would drive the top rate to nearly 50 percent, or if you live in New York or California, you’d be taxed in the mid 60s percentile. Mr. Booker would raise the top rates from 35 percent and 37 percent into a new 41 percent and 43 percent brackets. 

Confiscatory tax rates like these would squelch work and investment, leading to a depressed economy, higher unemployment, and by the way even larger budget deficits. I don’t care how many people the senators want to shield from income taxes, turning around with punitive tax rates on successful entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals is a nonstarter.

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Supply-side economics as Kennedy or Art Laffer would tell you, suggests that when you tax something more you get less of it. Punish success and prosperity, you’ll get less success and prosperity. But if you tax something less, you will encourage work effort and risk taking. And that’s the ticket to prosperity.

As Kennedy said many times, a rising tide will lift all boats. There’s no need to punish some while rewarding others in some kind of bizarre socialist redistribution scheme that has been tried many times before and always failed. But you know what folks? At least there are a couple of Democratic senators who don’t think tax cuts are dirty words. So, is JFK having a comeback?

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Avio S.p.A. 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:AVVSY) 2026-03-12

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Art and classic car auctions top $600 million despite Iran war

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Art and classic car auctions top $600 million despite Iran war
Art, car auctions break records: Here's what to know

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high net worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

Global collectors shrugged off the stock market declines and the war in Iran last week to spend more than $600 million on classic cars and fine art, signaling continued strength at the top of the economy.

Last week’s art sales in London topped $550 million, up over 50% from last year, according to Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips auction houses. Some works sold for more than twice their estimates and records were set for several artists, with bids pouring in from 40 countries.

Also last week, at the Amelia Island Concours in Florida, Broad Arrow Auctions hosted the most successful auction ever at Amelia, totaling $111 million. The sale, which included a $15 million 2003 Ferrari Enzo and a $6.7 million 2005 Porsche Carrera GT, followed a strong auction a week earlier by RM Sotheby’s at ModaMiami that reached $74 million.

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A baby blue 2005 Porsche Carrera GT went for $6.7 million at the most successful auction ever at Amelia.

Nick Zabrecky | Courtesy of Broad Arrow Auctions.

The strong results in both art and classic cars, stretching from London to Florida, show continued confidence among wealthy consumers even as volatility picks up and oil markets surged on the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Experts say the global turmoil may have even helped demand for rare collectibles, as the wealthy search for safe, long-term stores of value in an increasingly uncertain world.

“It’s surprising, yet not surprising,” said Drew Watson, head of art services at Bank of America. “It’s surprising with all that’s going on geopolitically. But when times are uncertain, and I think we’re in a broader era of uncertainty, people go with the tried and true.”

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The strong prices continue a rapid rebound in collectibles markets following two years of declines. In 2023 and 2024, art auction totals fell by 40% from their 2022 peak, despite soaring stock markets and falling interest rates. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in April last year only added to the gloom.

By late summer, however, collectibles sprang back to life. The classic car auctions at Monterey and Pebble Beach in August topped $430 million, marking the second-highest total ever. The next month, a Sotheby’s sale in London of the collection of British socialite Pauline Karpidas fetched $135 million, soaring past its estimate. The strength continued in Paris and the big New York sales in November, followed by big crowds at Art Basel Miami in December.

Kenneth Ahn, president of Broad Arrow, said the wealthy today seem to have become inured to the chaotic headlines and market gyrations.

“I don’t know if desensitization is the right word,” Ahn said. “But leading up to this, we’ve had Russia, which has been going on for a while, and the market has been fluctuating. What the market has done is effectively shut out those concerns as noise.”

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Ahn said the current era of classic car collectors differ dramatically from those of the past. Previous buyers, mainly baby boomers, were highly sensitive to market swings and economic cycles. He recalled a sale in Monterey in 2019 days after the stock market fell 400 points and bond yields were signaling recession.

“I had a client walk into the auction room and say ‘I just lost 30 million bucks over the last two days of my portfolio. I’m not sure if I need to bid on this car right now,’” he added.

Ahn said today “feels different.” Despite the market volatility and uncertainty, “there’s still this incredible optimism in the car market,” he said.

The reasons vary. Oliver Barker, Sotheby’s lead auctioneer and chairman of Sotheby’s Europe, attributed the market’s strength to the ultra-rare works being offered for sale.

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“I think it’s a function of the quality of the material that the market is seeing at the moment,” Barker said. “For savvy collectors, this is such an incredible opportunity to acquire rare-to-market and highly qualitative examples.”

A lack of supply, not demand, has been the main source of weakness in the art market, many say. After Christie’s blockbuster $1.5 billion Paul Allen sale in 2022, which included famed works by Cezanne, Van Gogh and Gauguin, few mega-collections came up for sale in 2023 and 2024.

Last fall, big estates returned. The sale of works from the collection of Leonard Lauder at Sotheby’s included a rare Gustav Klimt that sold for $236 million, making it the second-most expensive work ever sold at auction.

The sales in London last week included celebrated British works from the collection of Joe Lewis, the U.K. billionaire and investor. A self-portrait by Francis Bacon went for $21.5 million, doubling its low estimate. A painting by Leon Kossoff, called “Children’s Swimming Pool, 11 o’clock Saturday Morning, August” sold for $7 million after a bidding war between 10 bidders.

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And at Christie’s, a sculpture by Henry Moore, titled “King and Queen” sold for $35.2 million — a record for Moore — after six bidders competed in the auction.

Henry Moore’s “King and Queen” sculpture sold for $35.2 million at Christie’s in March 2025.

Christie’s

Barker and others said there’s been a “return to quality,” meaning collectors are bidding up the best works by famous artists rather than buying more speculative works by younger, less established artists. The big brand names of the art world — Picasso, Monet, Warhol — were all big drivers of prices last week.

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“It’s a perfect moment where there is a greater supply of great material, and there is also an extraordinarily hungry buyer class,” Barker said. “We’re seeing not only the depth of bidding that we’ve not experienced recently, but a much, much deeper depth of quality material.”

Another factor in the renewed strength of collectibles is a new generation of buyers. As the baby boomers slow their buying or sell their collections, Gen Xers, millennials and even some Gen Zers are stepping in. Some are entrepreneurs and tech founders, while others have inherited their wealth as part of the $100 trillion great wealth transfer.

While they’re buying a broader range of collectibles, from sneakers and handbags to Pokémon cards and sports memorabilia, they’re starting to make purchases in the art and classic car markets. And they are adding to the buyer’s pool.

“I do think we’re very much in the middle of a generational transition,” Watson said. “We have seen a lot of the collectors who have driven the postwar and contemporary market over the past couple of decades starting to age out. And we have the rising generational cohort moving in. “

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The shift is most dramatic in the classic car market. A market once dominated by 1950s and 1960s sports cars has quickly become eclipsed by supercars of the 1990s and 2000s, favored by the new wave of younger collectors. While the trend started before the pandemic, it has accelerated in the past three years, Ahn said.

“We’ve seen almost a parabolic move in prices for some of the modern hypercars and supercars over the past six months,” Ahn said. “There is a seismic shift that’s happening. It’s the great wealth transfer: We’re seeing it, we’re feeling it. This is a huge emergence of successful entrepreneurs who exited their business in their 30s and 40s, or inherited enormous amounts of capital, and they are passionate about the cars they grew up with.”

Not all collectibles segments are benefitting from the rising spending. While ultra-Contemporary art drove most of the post-pandemic recovery, sales by Contemporary art dealers were stagnant in 2025, according to the Art Basel and UBS Art Market Report. Higher costs have also forced some galleries to close, even as buyers flock to auction houses and at fairs for older works by recognized artists.

“On balance, this year’s data points to something more consequential than a return to growth,” said Noah Horowitz, CEO of Art Basel. “It reflects a sector adjusting to new economic realities, refining its models and strengthening its foundations for the long term.”

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Yet with stock markets likely to remain volatile, and interest rates potentially falling, the financial backdrop for collectibles remains strong. Add to that the fact that America’s wealthiest 1% have seen their wealth nearly double since 2020, to over $55 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve, and experts say the bull run in the art and classic car markets is likely to continue.

“We’re optimistic that a lot of that more positive sentiment, at least in the art market, will continue,” Watson said.

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FBI investigating fatal Virginia university shooting as act of terrorism

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FBI investigating fatal Virginia university shooting as act of terrorism

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Trump demands Powell cut rates as Iran conflict raises energy prices

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Trump demands Powell cut rates as Iran conflict raises energy prices

In what has become a now-familiar refrain, President Donald Trump on Thursday pressed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates immediately, rather than wait for the next policy meeting.

“Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post using a mocking nickname for Powell. 

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The comments come ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17 meeting, when the Fed’s 12-member rate-setting panel will decide whether to change its key interest rate. That benchmark rate helps determine what consumers and businesses pay to borrow money — including for mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

The meeting also comes as the conflict involving Iran has fueled a run-up in energy prices, adding to inflation pressures the Fed is watching closely — and complicating Trump’s pledge to lower costs for Americans.

GAS PRICES SURGE, PINCHING AMERICANS AND HANDING THE GOP A NEW MIDTERM HEADACHE

Customer Jann Gregg of Schenectady pumps gas at the GasWay Xpress Mart.

Oil and gas prices have surged following the depressed flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. (Lori Van Buren/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)

This week, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 as fallout from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continued to roil global markets and investors priced in the risk of tighter supply. 

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With oil higher, gasoline and diesel prices are rising fast.

Trump’s demand, however, runs up against how the Fed typically operates.

Rate changes are typically made at scheduled meetings. Still, the Fed has cut rates between meetings during crises, most recently in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump, who nominated Powell to lead the Fed in 2017, has intensified his public campaign in recent months, calling for rates to fall as low as 1% as part of his push to stimulate growth.

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For his part, Powell held off initially on rate cuts as the Fed assessed the economic impact of Trump’s evolving trade agenda. That wait-and-see posture kept the Fed’s benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.5% for a period. The Fed has since lowered rates, and the target range now stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. But even after rate cuts, Trump has escalated his attacks on Powell and the central bank.

TRUMP VS THE FEDERAL RESERVE: HOW THE CLASH REACHED UNCHARTED TERRITORY

A photo of President Donald Trump walking behind Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell at the White House.

President Donald Trump walks behind Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve during an announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, Nov. 2, 2017. (Olivier Douliery/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

Trump’s renewed demands also sharpen the long-running tension between the White House and an institution designed to operate independently, with Fed officials insisting rate decisions will be driven by economic data, not political pressure.

That tension has now expanded beyond monetary policy. Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation tied to Powell’s prior testimony to Congress about cost overruns on the Fed’s headquarters renovation project.

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Powell, in a rare video statement, called the probe “unprecedented” and described it as another salvo in what he described as Trump’s pressure campaign on the central bank to cut rates. 

POWELL’S BEHIND-THE-SCENES MOVE AFTER TRUMP’S DOJ OPENED ITS CRIMINAL PROBE

The unusually public response followed days of private consultations with advisors and stood out for a Fed chair known for a measured approach.

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The political stakes are heightened by the timing: Powell’s term as chair ends May 15. 

Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed him, putting the Fed’s next moves and Powell’s final months under even brighter scrutiny.

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Reno surpasses Las Vegas as top destination for California homebuyers

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Reno surpasses Las Vegas as top destination for California homebuyers

A new hotspot has emerged for homebuyers looking to leave California, and it’s outdrawing a larger and more well-known metro area within its state in the process.

Reno is the second-largest metropolitan area in the state of Nevada and has surpassed Las Vegas, the Silver State’s largest city, as a more attractive destination for Californians looking to move, a report by Realtor.com found.

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The analysis of housing data by Realtor.com found that in 2025, almost 43% of views of online listings in the Reno area came from users in California metropolitan areas, which the outlet said was the highest share in the history of the data series dating back to 2019.

By contrast, about 25% of views of Las Vegas area listings came from California metros, a decrease from a 2023 peak of 27%.

AMERICA’S 10 MOST EXPENSIVE ZIP CODES REVEALED

Reno, Nevada sign

Reno has emerged as a popular locale for Californians looking to move, surpassing Las Vegas according to a Realtor.com analysis. (iStock)

“The data suggests that Reno has long been popular with California home shoppers, and its popularity is continuing to grow perhaps due to its relative affordability and lower cost of living,” said Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones.

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Jones noted that in 2025, Reno brought in more prospective homebuyers from locations throughout the state of California than shoppers from within the local market, who accounted for just over 30% of listing views.

By contrast, homes listed in Las Vegas had 38% of their views came from within the metro area and surpassed those from shoppers in California by more than 12%.

AMERICAN HOMEBUYERS GAIN MOST PURCHASING POWER SINCE 2022

People enjoying the Truckee River in Downtown Reno

The Truckee River flows through downtown Reno, Nevada. (Andri Tambunan/AFP via Getty Images)

Reno is known as “the Biggest Little City in the World” and is located near Nevada’s border with California, close to Lake Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada mountains as well as metro areas in Northern California. Its climate is relatively mild in comparison to that of Las Vegas, which endures sizzling temperatures in the summer months.

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Much like Sin City further south in Nevada, Reno is home to casinos and has a significant gambling industry. However, the region’s economy is diversified and major employers in the Reno metro area include Tesla and Panasonic as well as Caesars Entertainment. 

US HOME PRICES ARE RISING – BUT THESE FAST-GROWING MARKETS REMAIN AFFORDABLE

An aerial view of Reno, Nevada

Reno’s housing market and metro area is significantly smaller than that of Las Vegas. (iStock)

The median home listing price in Reno was $636,800 in February, an increase of over 11% from a year ago, according to the Realtor.com report. Median prices in Las Vegas were lower at $464,950 and were down 1.1% from the prior year amid a 23% increase in inventory.

Experts told Realtor.com that the pricing disparity was largely due to market size, with Reno being much smaller and having a more limited supply of houses. That can translate to larger increases in prices when demand rises.

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Despite the disparity, Bay Area residents looking at Reno will find much cheaper houses than what they’re used to in places like San Francisco, which had a median price of $907,000, as well as San Jose with its $1.35 million median price.

Nevada also lacks a state income tax, which makes it an appealing destination for homebuyers looking to preserve more of their income. It also has become popular among high-earning Californians who could be affected by a proposed wealth tax.

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EV maker Lucid reveals plans for robotaxi, positive free cash flow

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EV maker Lucid reveals plans for robotaxi, positive free cash flow

The Lucid display is seen at the New York International Auto Show on April 16, 2025.

Danielle DeVries | CNBC

NEW YORK — Lucid Group expects to be cash flow positive late this decade as it plans to grow its vehicle lineup and significantly increase its software and technology offerings, the all-electric vehicle maker announced Thursday during its first investor day in nearly five years as a public company.

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The EV company aims to accomplish positive cash flow generation through market expansion into midsize vehicles and robotaxis, as well as international expansion in markets such as Europe and Saudi Arabia. It also expects to achieve efficiency gains and software revenue growth with the introduction of improved advanced driver assistance systems and a new Lucid artificial intelligence assistant, executives told dozens of investors and Wall Street analysts on Thursday.

Lucid stock closed Thursday at $9.84, down 7.9%. Shares were off roughly 6% to 8% during much of the event despite the company giving its most detailed product and expansion plans to date, highlighting the tough market conditions for EV companies.

“We view the midterm and late decade targets as an important benchmark against which investors can measure LCID’s progress which will improve transparency,” Baird analyst Ben Kallo said in a Thursday investor note. “The near-term backdrop for EVs remains challenging with headwinds such as tariffs and policy muting investor sentiment.”

Lucid’s cash flow target is challenging given the automaker’s current performance and waning demand for EVs in the U.S. While Lucid has been able to increase sales and narrow losses, the company lost $2.7 billion on revenue of $1.35 billion in 2025. It had negative free cash flow of $3.8 billion in 2025, a loss that was roughly 31% larger than a year earlier.

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Inside Lucid’s high-stakes turnaround plan

Lucid interim CEO Marc Winterhoff — who unexpectedly took over for company founder Peter Rawlinson last year — said the company’s “north star” is “accelerating to profitability,” reiterating the investor event’s theme. He and other executives declined to disclose an exact year the company aims to be cash flow positive.

The automaker has been trying to increase investor interest in the company as it prepares to launch a new midsize vehicle at the end of this year. Its largest shareholder, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, has also changed its investment strategy in the company from capital investment to revolving credit.

Robotaxi, autonomy plans

Lucid on March 12, 2026, previewed plans for a new two-seat robotaxi that the company is developing off its upcoming midsize electric vehicle platform.

Michael Wayland / CNBC

Lucid on Thursday said it expects to achieve roughly $1 billion in annual incremental, non-vehicle revenue through services such as recurring software subscriptions by later this decade. It also previewed plans for a two-seat robotaxi, including a design concept car, but it did not specify a timeframe for the vehicle.

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Winterhoff told CNBC after the event that the dedicated robotaxi is a “mid-term” target for the company in the coming years.

Company executives spent a significant amount of the event discussing Lucid’s upcoming driving technologies, including robotaxis, and plans to launch a subscription service by early 2027 that will range from $69 to $199 a month, based on capabilities.

“Autonomy plays an outside role in the future of Lucid,” said Kay Stepper, Lucid vice president of advanced driving systems, adding that the company plans to offer vehicles capable of driving themselves under certain circumstances by 2029.

Winterhoff and Uber President and Chief Operating Officer Andrew Macdonald on Thursday announced they are planning to expand a previously announced tie-up for robotaxis to include upcoming midsize vehicles.

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Expansion into midsize and autonomy is expected to significantly increase Lucid’s total addressable market, or TAM, from $40 billion for its current Air sedan and Gravity SUV to $700 billion, executives said Thursday.

Winterhoff said he sees the company’s autonomy technologies essentially growing to match Tesla’s current FSD by next year.

Midsize vehicles

Lucid on Thursday said it plans to produce three midsize vehicles, starting with a vehicle called Cosmos this year, followed by a model called Earth roughly a year later and an unnamed vehicle during an unspecified time frame after that.

“We think these three unique products will give us maximum opportunity to hit the widest audience possible. And that audience is where we are today, but it’s a different audience than our current market,” said Derek Jenkins, Lucid senior vice president of design and brand.

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A Lucid-supplied teaser image of its upcoming midsize vehicle behind its current Gravity SUV.

Lucid

A preview of the Cosmos shown to event attendees Thursday featured a more muscular look with thinner headlights and a silhouette reminiscent of the automaker’s current Gravity SUV but in smaller packaging. The interior of the vehicle continues Lucid’s focus on a spacious cabin with significant storage and a large one-piece screen traversing most of the car’s front dash.

The three midsize vehicles are targeted at upscale buyers, younger “trendsetting achievers” and outdoor enthusiasts, Jenkins said. The last would be a direct competitor to fellow EV competitor Rivian Automotive, which is expected to release a new R2 midsize vehicle this spring, beginning with a roughly $58,000 version of the vehicle.

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Lucid has said its midsize vehicle is expected to begin at roughly $50,000. That would position it in line with the average transaction prices of new vehicles in the U.S. as well as entry-level models of Rivian’s R2.

Both Rivian and Lucid are attempting to reassure investors that they can not only compete in a troubled EV market but thrive through the expansion of new vehicles and technologies to better compete against U.S. EV leader Tesla. Lucid said its new midsize EV platform will be class-leading in efficiency, something the company has strived to do with all its vehicles.

Both have touted having enough capital to get them through near-term initiatives but their long-term viability is still a major question for investors.

Lucid has said its total liquidity of $5.5 billion, including a roughly $2 billion delayed draw term loan credit facility from Saudi’s PIF, is enough to get through the first half of 2027.

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Rivian ended the fourth quarter with $6.59 billion in total liquidity, including nearly $6.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, as the company attempts to ramp up production this year of its midsize vehicle and new autonomy technologies.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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