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AI, Robotaxi Bets Fuel Debate at High Valuation

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AUSTIN, Texas — Tesla Inc. remains one of the most fiercely debated stocks on Wall Street in 2026, with analysts split between those urging investors to buy shares of the EV and AI pioneer for its long-term robotaxi and Optimus potential and those warning of overvaluation and slowing core auto demand as the company trades near record levels.

As of late April 2026, Tesla shares hover around $376 after a volatile start to the year. Wall Street’s consensus rating stands as a Hold, with 41 analysts offering an average 12-month price target near $398–$406 — implying modest single-digit upside from current levels. Targets range dramatically, from as low as $25 (bearish outlier) to $600 (bullish calls from Wedbush’s Dan Ives).

The bull case centers on Tesla’s leadership in autonomy and energy. Q1 2026 results showed revenue of roughly $22.4–$22.9 billion, with paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubling sequentially. Elon Musk confirmed Cybercab pilot production is underway at Giga Texas, with volume ramp expected later in the year. Unsupervised Robotaxi operations expanded to Dallas and Houston in April, with plans for a dozen states by year-end.

Musk and supporters argue 2026 will be a defining year as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions grow, energy storage scales, and Optimus humanoid robots move closer to commercialization. Optimistic forecasts see Tesla’s valuation expanding dramatically if robotaxi revenue materializes at scale, with some models projecting multi-trillion-dollar potential.

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Bears counter that the core EV business faces softening demand, rising competition from Chinese manufacturers, and margin pressure. Analysts note high capital expenditure needs (Musk raised 2026 capex guidance above $25 billion for AI and Robotaxi), execution risks on Cybercab ramp, and the stock’s premium valuation leaving little room for error. Some forecasts see limited growth if autonomy timelines slip further.

Consensus among roughly 40–60 analysts leans Hold, with roughly 18 Buy, 15 Hold, and 8 Sell ratings. The wide dispersion reflects deep uncertainty around the timing and profitability of Tesla’s non-auto bets.

For long-term growth investors, the case for buying Tesla centers on its positioning at the intersection of AI, energy and robotics. Strong brand loyalty, vertical integration, and a massive data advantage in autonomy provide a moat few competitors can match. Patient capital sees current levels as reasonable given the transformative potential of robotaxis and Optimus.

Shorter-term or more conservative investors may prefer caution. Tesla’s high multiple leaves it vulnerable to any disappointment in delivery growth, margin trends or regulatory hurdles for unsupervised autonomy. Macro risks, including interest rates and EV adoption curves, add volatility. Many recommend waiting for clearer evidence of robotaxi revenue or meaningful pullbacks.

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Institutional ownership remains elevated, and retail enthusiasm stays high, fueled by Musk’s vision and periodic product announcements. Options activity shows bullish tilt overall, though implied volatility reflects ongoing uncertainty. The stock has delivered extraordinary long-term returns but experienced sharp drawdowns along the way.

Tesla’s 2026 trajectory will likely hinge on successful Cybercab production scaling, FSD regulatory approvals, energy storage growth and Optimus progress. Positive developments on these fronts could drive shares significantly higher. Any delays or margin compression might trigger corrections typical of high-growth tech names.

Ultimately, whether to buy or sell Tesla in 2026 depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon and conviction in the AI and autonomy secular trend. Growth-oriented investors comfortable with volatility generally view it as a Buy for multi-year portfolios. More conservative investors may opt to Hold existing positions or wait for better entry points. Most advisors recommend thoughtful position sizing within a diversified portfolio.

As the AI and energy transition accelerates, Tesla stands as one of the purest and most ambitious plays on these megatrends. With strong execution history under Musk, expanding addressable markets and multiple growth catalysts, the company offers significant potential for believers — even after years of spectacular gains. The central debate is not whether Tesla will grow, but how much the market is willing to pay today for tomorrow’s promised breakthroughs.

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Why are copper prices near high and will the momentum continue?

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Why are copper prices near high and will the momentum continue?
Copper prices have been highly volatile in recent months, reflecting both structural demand growth and short-term geopolitical influences. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper surged to an all-time high of $14,500 per metric tonne in early February 2026 before correcting sharply by mid-March. Yet, prices have since recuperated, consolidating in the $12,700–$13,000 range. A similar trend has been observed in India, where MCX copper is currently trading near Rs 1,300 per kg, underscoring the global bullish sentiment.

Key drivers of the rally

Several factors are driving this price action. The boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure, particularly hyperscale data centres, has created unprecedented demand for copper in power distribution and cooling systems. The global push toward electrification and renewable energy integration has intensified the need for copper in grid modernisation projects. Supply constraints are also playing a role, with declining ore grades and disruptions at major mines tightening availability. Geopolitical tensions, including trade tariffs and defence procurement, have added further volatility to the market. Additionally, speculative buying by investors anticipating long-term shortages has amplified the rally, while currency fluctuations—especially a weaker U.S. dollar—have made copper more attractive to international buyers.

Supply-demand imbalances

The current supply-demand scenario points to a deficit, with global refined copper shortfalls estimated at 330,000–400,000 tonnes in 2026. Smelting bottlenecks, particularly in China, have capped refined output, while regional imbalances have led to acute shortages and price premiums in certain markets. Recycling has provided some relief, but the secondary supply remains insufficient to bridge the gap. Moreover, delays in new mining projects due to environmental clearances and financing challenges have worsened the imbalance. However, unless significant investment flows into exploration and production, the deficit could widen further in the coming years.

Geopolitical pressures on copper

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Geopolitical factors are amplifying these pressures. Elevated defence spending has increased copper demand for weapons systems and vehicles, while U.S. tariffs and stockpiling programs have removed large volumes from the open market. Ongoing tensions in West Asia have sustained military-driven demand, though the easing of conflicts could reduce defence consumption while stabilising supply chains. Sanctions on certain producing nations have also disrupted trade flows, while logistical bottlenecks in shipping lanes have added to costs. The broader geopolitical climate has made copper not just an industrial commodity but also a strategic resource, with governments increasingly treating it as critical to national security.

China’s central role and global industrial demand

China remains pivotal to copper’s outlook, with smelter production caps limiting supply even as demand surges from renewable energy expansion, electric vehicles, and Belt and Road infrastructure projects. Strategic reserve policies, including stockpiling and releases, further sway global sentiment. Beyond China, industrial demand is equally strong. AI data centres are projected to consume nearly 475,000 tonnes in 2026, while electrification and grid modernisation in Western nations sustain elevated usage. Electric vehicles require up to four times more copper than conventional cars, amplifying automotive demand. Renewable energy projects, particularly wind and solar farms, add significant copper intensity, while construction in emerging economies and smart city initiatives ensure that industrial consumption remains robust worldwide.

Impact of West Asian tensions easing

If West Asian tensions ease, copper demand linked to defence procurement may decline, but this would likely be offset by improved supply chain stability and stronger industrial consumption. Peace in the region could reduce shipping risks and lower insurance costs, making the copper trade smoother and cheaper. It may also encourage investment in infrastructure and energy projects, which would sustain demand from civilian sectors. Thus, while military demand may soften, industrial and developmental demand could rise, keeping overall consumption elevated.

Outlook remains positive for the long term

Copper’s trajectory carries significant macroeconomic weight, as rising prices elevate input costs across manufacturing, housing, automotive, and technology sectors, ultimately feeding into global inflationary pressures and challenging monetary policy. Emerging markets, where copper is vital for infrastructure, face added fiscal strain as budgets stretch and projects risk delay. In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate around $12,700–$13,000, with volatility shaped by geopolitical developments and speculative trading. However, the long-term outlook remains structurally bullish. Demand from AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and global electrification initiatives is poised to sustain elevated prices. Despite inevitable corrections, copper has cemented its role as the decade’s most critical industrial metal.

(The author is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited)

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FII exodus deepens in 2026 at Rs 1.75 lakh crore as April outflows swell to Rs 43,967 crore; FOMC next trigger

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FII exodus deepens in 2026 at Rs 1.75 lakh crore as April outflows swell to Rs 43,967 crore; FOMC next trigger
The week ended with some serious selling from the Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who offloaded domestic equities worth Rs 17,140 crore over the five sessions that ended Friday. The foreign outflows in April so far have swelled to Rs 43,967 crore, extending the 2026 exodus to a whopping Rs 1,75,089 crore.

On Friday, FIIs sold domestic shares to the tune of Rs 8,827.87 crore while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 4,700.71 crore.

The massive selling ensured domestic frontline indices ended with sharp cuts. The biggest spoilsport was IT, which fell over 5% at the index level. Pharma, health and energy socks were other big losers. While the 50-stock Nifty fell 275.10 points or 1.14% to finish at 23,897.95, Sensex declined 999.79 points or 1.29% to settle at 76,664.21.

FIIs continue to offload Indian equities with the month-to-date selling trend continuing for the 10th consecutive months, said Bajaj Broking in a note as geo-politics dominate institutional flows. Going ahead, the institutional activity is expected to be driven mainly by global news flows, with developments in US–Iran negotiations remaining a key monitorable, a brokerage note said.

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“US FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decisions followed by central bank commentary are also scheduled for next week which will also have an impact on the global equity market and institutional activity,” it added.


The rate setting committee of the US Federal Reserve will meet on April 28 & 29 to mull on the policy moves in light of the ongoing US-Iran war. The policy outcomes will be declared on Wednesday, April 29.
FIIs have remained net sellers in Indian markets despite improving global cues, with over $45 billion pulled out since September 2024 and another $5 billion sold in April 2026 alone, even as flows moved to markets like Korea and Taiwan, N. ArunaGiri, CEO, TrustLine Holdings said, adding the divergence highlights India’s reduced appeal in global allocation strategies, as its MSCI weight has dropped sharply.“FIIs are predominantly large-cap, top-down investors,” and their participation hinges on clear sectoral leadership—something currently lacking with IT facing derating and private banks showing muted growth, ArunaGiri explained.

He adds that “in the absence of a clear index driver, India’s relative attractiveness diminishes,” especially in a market expected to remain sideways and stock-specific, which typically favours domestic investors over global flows. From an FII standpoint, a meaningful return will likely depend on two key triggers – “a clear earnings acceleration cycle” and “supportive currency trends” – he added.

FIIs in 2026

War-induced sell-off in March made it the worst month this year, witnessing an exodus worth Rs 1,17,775 crore. Foreign investors turned net buyers in February, buying shares worth Rs 22,615 crore in the domestic markets so far. In January, they sold Rs 35,962 crore worth of shares.

In 2025, the FIIs buying trends remained patchy, but the overall trend was bearish. They took Rs 1,66,286 crore from Indian markets as trade deal delay and premium valuations weighed on the sentiments.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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Bitcoin near $78K, Ethereum steady near $2,300; rally cools after strong rebound

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Bitcoin near $78K, Ethereum steady near $2,300; rally cools after strong rebound
Bitcoin and Ethereum traded near the $78,000 mark and the $2,300 level respectively, with both assets consolidating after seeing a strong rebound. The cryptocurrencies traded at $77,550 and $2,316 mark respectively.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin saw a marginal decline of 0.3% whereas Ethereum was up 0.25%. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, and Cardano gained upto 1.5% whereas Tron slipped 1.3%.

Also Read | Have Rs 4 lakh to invest? Here’s how to balance mutual fund SIP and lumpsum

The global crypto market capitalisation edged down 0.08% to $2.59 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said Bitcoin remains on track for its strongest monthly performance in a year, even as short-term momentum cools. Adding to this, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 60.6% in late April, after ranging between 58–60% through Q1 2026, highlighting continued capital concentration into Bitcoin.

Sehgal further said that technically, Bitcoin maintains a higher high-higher low structure on the 4-hour chart, holding above key demand zones, indicating underlying strength if support sustains. Ethereum, however, is relatively weaker, trading in a tighter range with short-term lower highs, reflecting cautious sentiment.
In the past week, Bitcoin was up 0.5% and Ethereum slipped 4%. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Hyperliquid, Tron and Cardano fell up to 8.8%.
WazirX Market’s Desk said Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,825, consolidating near recent highs after a strong upward move earlier in the week. Ethereum is hovering near $2,300, remaining sensitive to broader risk conditions.
Also Read | Mutual fund SIP investments underperforming? Here’s why investors should stay invested despite short-term losses

“On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed oil prices above $100, raising fresh inflation concerns. Alongside uncertainty about US monetary policy and developments in Federal Reserve leadership, traditional markets have faced pressure, while crypto has held relatively steady. This divergence continues to support Bitcoin’s positioning as an alternative macro asset.”

Overall, Bitcoin’s dominance remains elevated at 58–60%, reinforcing that capital remains concentrated in major assets amid ongoing macro and regulatory uncertainty, said WazirX Market’s Desk.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and twitter handle.

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World Kinect Corporation 2026 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:WKC) 2026-04-25

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q1: 2026-04-23 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.44

 | Revenue of $9.69B (2.46% Y/Y) beats by $972.25M

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Coloplast A/S (CLPBY) 2026 Guidance/Update Call – Slideshow

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Coloplast A/S (CLPBY) 2026 Guidance/Update Call – Slideshow

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Major Russian attack on Ukraine kills four, wounds dozens

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Major Russian attack on Ukraine kills four, wounds dozens


Major Russian attack on Ukraine kills four, wounds dozens

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Jada Pinkett Smith Seeks $49K From Will Smith’s Ex-Friend After Emotional Distress Suit Partially Dismissed

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LOS ANGELES — Jada Pinkett Smith is asking a California judge to order Will Smith’s former friend Bilaal Salaam to pay nearly $49,000 in attorney fees after successfully getting portions of his $3 million emotional distress lawsuit against her dismissed, according to court documents filed this week.

Jada Pinkett Smith
Jada Pinkett Smith

The 54-year-old actress and Red Table Talk co-host filed the motion for fees following a partial victory in the high-profile civil case that stems from a long-simmering fallout involving Smith’s inner circle. Salaam, who has described himself as a longtime friend and associate of the Oscar winner, originally sued Pinkett Smith in late 2025, alleging she caused him severe emotional distress through threats and interference related to a planned memoir.

Court records reviewed by multiple outlets show Salaam claimed Pinkett Smith warned him he would “catch a bullet” if he continued sharing personal family details. The suit sought $3 million in damages and accused her of orchestrating a campaign that damaged his reputation and mental health. Pinkett Smith has strongly denied the allegations, calling them baseless and arguing that Salaam failed to provide sufficient evidence to support his claims.

In recent months, a judge tossed key portions of Salaam’s complaint, prompting Pinkett Smith’s legal team to seek reimbursement for defense costs. The filing requests approximately $48,975 to cover attorney fees incurred while fighting the now-partially dismissed claims. Legal experts note that such fee-shifting motions are common when defendants prevail on anti-SLAPP or demurrer motions aimed at weeding out meritless litigation.

The dispute highlights ongoing tensions in the Smith family’s extended circle. Salaam had positioned himself as a trusted confidant who worked on projects tied to Will Smith’s life story. The lawsuit emerged amid heightened public scrutiny of the Smiths following Jada’s candid 2023 memoir “Worthy” and various Red Table Talk revelations that reportedly strained relationships with some longtime associates.

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Pinkett Smith’s attorneys argue the remaining claims should also be dismissed and that Salaam should bear the financial burden of what they describe as a frivolous action. The motion emphasizes the time and resources spent defending against accusations that lacked substantiation, particularly claims involving alleged threats and professional sabotage.

Representatives for Pinkett Smith and Will Smith have not issued public comments on the latest filing. Salaam’s legal team has also remained silent on the fee request as the case continues to wind through Los Angeles Superior Court. A hearing date for the motion has not yet been set.

The development adds another chapter to the high-profile legal and personal dramas surrounding one of Hollywood’s most watched couples. Will Smith has largely stayed out of the public eye in recent months following his own career reflections and family-focused projects, while Jada has continued selective media appearances and brand work.

Legal observers say fee recovery motions like this one serve dual purposes: recouping costs for the prevailing party and deterring similar lawsuits in the future. In California, prevailing defendants in certain defamation or emotional distress cases can seek fees under statutes designed to protect free speech and discourage strategic litigation.

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The original lawsuit gained significant media attention when details emerged about alleged hotel confrontations and warnings tied to a memoir project. Salaam claimed the stress from the situation led to substantial personal and professional losses. Pinkett Smith countered that the claims were exaggerated and motivated by personal grievances rather than legitimate harm.

This is not the first time the Smith family has faced public legal battles involving former associates. Past disputes have involved everything from business partners to entertainment industry figures, often playing out in tabloids and social media. The current case, however, stands out for its deeply personal nature and direct connection to Will Smith’s longtime friendship circle.

Fans have reacted with a mix of support for Pinkett Smith and calls for privacy. Social media commentary ranges from accusations of Hollywood drama to sympathy for the financial and emotional toll of defending against lawsuits. Some observers note the irony of a family known for public transparency now navigating private disputes in court.

Beyond the immediate fee dispute, the case raises broader questions about celebrity privacy, memoir projects and the boundaries of friendship in the entertainment industry. As high-profile figures increasingly share intimate details through books, podcasts and social platforms, the potential for fallout with former insiders grows.

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Court watchers expect the judge to rule on the fee motion within the coming weeks, potentially setting a precedent for how similar claims are handled. If granted, the $49,000 award would represent a relatively modest sum in celebrity litigation but carry symbolic weight as a victory for Pinkett Smith’s defense strategy.

The Smiths continue to focus on family and individual projects amid the legal proceedings. Jada has maintained a lower public profile recently, while Will has hinted at new creative endeavors. Regardless of the outcome, the dispute serves as a reminder of the complex intersections between personal relationships and public personas in modern Hollywood.

As the case progresses, all eyes remain on the California courtroom where one of entertainment’s most discussed families seeks resolution. Whether Salaam will be ordered to pay the legal bill could influence not only this specific matter but future interactions within the Smith orbit.

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Netanyahu Reveals Quiet Prostate Cancer Treatment During Iran War, Declares Himself Cancer-Free

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted killing Hamas leaders was the right approach to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed Friday that he was diagnosed with and successfully treated for early-stage prostate cancer several months ago, a revelation he deliberately withheld to avoid giving Iran ammunition for propaganda amid ongoing regional conflicts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted killing Hamas leaders was the right approach to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
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In a statement accompanying the release of his annual medical report, the 76-year-old leader said doctors discovered a very small malignant tumor — less than a centimeter — during routine monitoring following his December 2024 prostate surgery for a benign enlargement. The cancer had not spread, and targeted radiation therapy completed about two and a half months ago eradicated all traces, leaving him in “excellent physical condition,” Netanyahu said.

“I requested to delay its publication by two months so that it would not be released at the height of the war, in order not to allow the Iranian terror regime to spread even more false propaganda against Israel,” Netanyahu wrote on X. He emphasized that the spot “disappeared completely” and that he continued working normally throughout the treatment.

The announcement comes as Israel navigates multiple security challenges, including the aftermath of conflicts with Iran and its proxies. Medical experts described the early detection and successful outcome as highly positive, noting that prostate cancer caught at this stage has an excellent prognosis when treated promptly.

Netanyahu’s December 2024 surgery at Jerusalem’s Hadassah Medical Center addressed a urinary tract infection caused by benign prostate enlargement. At the time, officials stressed there was no suspicion of malignancy. Follow-up monitoring, however, revealed the small cancerous spot, prompting additional targeted treatment that Netanyahu kept private.

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The prime minister’s office released the full medical report Friday after he personally requested the delay. Doctors confirmed no metastases and described him as fully recovered. Netanyahu underwent the additional therapy discreetly while maintaining his demanding schedule, including high-stakes diplomatic and military decisions.

Opposition figures and some commentators questioned the timing and secrecy of the disclosure. Critics argued that withholding health information from the public during wartime raises transparency concerns, especially for a leader managing existential threats to the country. Supporters countered that the decision prioritized national security and prevented enemies from exploiting perceived weakness.

The revelation has sparked intense discussion across Israeli society and international media. Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers among men, particularly those over 70, and early detection through routine screening often leads to full recovery. Netanyahu’s case highlights both the importance of regular check-ups and the unique pressures faced by world leaders balancing personal health with public duties.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has a history of managing health matters discreetly. Past reports detailed pacemaker procedures and other treatments conducted with tight security. Friday’s announcement fits that pattern while marking his first public disclosure of a cancer diagnosis.

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Medical professionals not involved in his care noted the favorable details: a tiny tumor with no spread, successful localized treatment and a clean bill of health. Such outcomes are typical for early-stage prostate cancers detected through vigilant monitoring after initial prostate issues.

The timing of the revelation — amid fragile regional ceasefires and domestic political debates — has fueled speculation about its impact on Netanyahu’s leadership. His coalition government faces ongoing challenges, and any perception of vulnerability could influence political dynamics. However, Netanyahu’s office stressed his full capacity and continued active role in all state matters.

Public reaction in Israel has been mixed. Many citizens expressed relief at the positive prognosis and admiration for his decision to shield the information from adversaries. Others called for greater transparency from elected officials regarding health matters that could affect governance. Social media platforms lit up with both supportive messages and pointed questions about the delay.

Internationally, leaders and analysts noted the disclosure while focusing on Netanyahu’s assertion of excellent health. The announcement comes as Israel continues navigating complex diplomatic waters, including relations with the United States and efforts to stabilize the region after recent escalations.

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Prostate cancer awareness advocates welcomed the high-profile disclosure, hoping it encourages men — particularly older ones — to pursue regular screenings. Early detection dramatically improves outcomes, with five-year survival rates near 100% for localized cases.

Netanyahu’s medical team confirmed he remains under regular monitoring but requires no further immediate treatment. The prime minister expressed gratitude to his doctors and reiterated his commitment to leading Israel through its current challenges.

The episode underscores the intense scrutiny world leaders face regarding personal health. Historical precedents include leaders from various nations who have managed illnesses discreetly while in office. Netanyahu’s choice to delay public disclosure for strategic reasons has reignited debates about the balance between privacy, transparency and national security.

As details continue to emerge, Israelis and observers worldwide are processing the news that their longtime leader quietly battled — and defeated — cancer while steering the country through turbulent times. Netanyahu’s declaration of being cancer-free provides reassurance, even as questions linger about the full context and implications of the secrecy.

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For now, the focus returns to governance and security. Netanyahu, declaring himself in excellent condition, shows no signs of slowing down as he continues to shape Israel’s future amid ongoing regional tensions.

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DeepSeek unveils new AI model tailored for Huawei chips as China pushes for tech autonomy

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Markets have begun to climb the wall of worry

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Markets have begun to climb the wall of worry
History doesn’t repeat itself perfectly, but in markets, it often rhymes with uncanny precision. From the chaos of the COVID-19 collapse to the present-day geopolitical tremors, one principle continues to stand tall: markets climb the wall of worry.

Cast your mind back to early 2020. The Nifty scaled highs in January, attempted to reclaim momentum in February, but failed to print a new all-time high. What followed was one of the sharpest drawdowns in market history. On 23rd March 2020, the index marked its lowest closing level amid panic, forced liquidations, and a complete breakdown in visibility.

Two days later, on 25th March 2020, India entered a nationwide lockdown. Economic activity came to a grinding halt. There was no clarity on earnings, no roadmap for recovery, and no timeline for normalization. If ever there was a moment for markets to stay depressed, this was it.

However, markets had other plans.

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Even before earnings visibility improved or economic indicators stabilized, equities began their ascent. By the time India initiated its first vaccination phase in January 2021, the Nifty was already trading at all-time highs. The message was clear: markets discount the future not the present. They had already priced in the worst of the fall and the hope of recovery, long before it became visible in data.

Earnings Collapse vs Market Resilience

The divergence between fundamentals and price action was stark.
In Q1 FY2020-21, companies reported multi-quarter lows in revenue growth, as reflected in the financial results of 489 companies (excluding financial sector entities). Aggregate revenues contracted by 31.1% YoY, with consumer-facing sectors plunging nearly 49%.Profitability margins compressed significantly due to fixed overheads and negligible revenues.

weak fundamental chartETMarkets.com

On paper, it was one of the weakest earnings seasons in decades.

Yet, the market remained largely unfazed.

Why? Because by then, the market had already discounted the collapse. Investors were looking ahead—to reopening, recovery, and normalization. The pain was visible in earnings, but the hope was already embedded in prices.

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2020: Crash & Recovery

Nifty 50 index chartETMarkets.com

2026 Volatility: Market Rebounds amid Uncertainty

Nifty 50 index chartETMarkets.com

2026: A Familiar Pattern Emerges

Fast forward to 2026, and the pattern appears eerily similar.

The Nifty once again peaked in January 2026, attempted to reclaim those levels in February, but failed to make a fresh high. Then came the trigger; escalation of the US-Iran conflict starting 28th February 2026. Risk-off sentiment gripped global markets, leading to a sharp correction.

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By 30th March 2026, the market marked its lowest close in the current cycle.

Since then, however, the index has staged a meaningful recovery retracing nearly half of its losses. This, despite the fact that there is no conclusive geopolitical resolution, no clear peace agreement, and continued uncertainty around crude prices, inflation, and earnings.

More interestingly, the downside momentum has started to fade. Markets are no longer reacting with the same intensity to negative developments.

The Silent Force: Investor Behaviour

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Growth equity chartETMarkets.com

Perhaps the most compelling shift this time lies beneath the surface in investor behavior.

In March 2026, while the Nifty declined by 11.31%, flows into equity mutual funds told a completely different story. Growth and equity-oriented schemes witnessed inflows of ₹40,450 crore a 56% surge month-on-month, marking the highest level in eight months.

This is not just liquidity, it is learning in action.

Investors, shaped by the experiences of 2020, appear to have internalized a critical market truth: periods of maximum fear often coincide with phases of maximum opportunity. Instead of retreating, capital is stepping in.

What Lies Ahead?

It would be premature and perhaps imprudent to conclude that markets are poised for an uninterrupted upside. The current environment remains fragile. Geopolitical risks persist, inflationary pressures are building, and crude disruptions could weigh on corporate earnings.

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Markets can very well retest lower levels.

But what recent price action indicates is equally important: the market may have already begun discounting a significant portion of the risk.

Just as in 2020, when earnings collapsed but markets rallied, today’s environment presents a similar dichotomy; weak near-term visibility, but improving forward expectations.

The Core Insight

Markets don’t wait for clarity, they move ahead of it. Across cycles, from the 2020 pandemic crash to the 2026 geopolitical tensions, one pattern remains clear: when uncertainty peaks, markets begin to stabilize before fundamentals improve. Recovery is driven not by the absence of risk, but by its early pricing.

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Today, despite elevated risks of war, inflation, and earnings pressure, market reactions are softening, indicating much of the fear may already be discounted. This isn’t a call for immediate upside, as volatility can persist. However, history shows markets lead sentiment.

By the time certainty emerges, prices have adjusted quietly climbing the wall of worry.

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