Private-equity firm Apollo Global Management is in talks to acquire Johnson & Johnson’s hips-and-knees parts business for around $20 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. 

J&J has been seeking to unload its DePuy Synthes orthopedics business. It is possible the talks with Apollo won’t result in a transaction, however, or another suitor could still emerge, the people cautioned.

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Mumbai: Valuations have been the big buzzword on Dalal Street for a while now but its suddenly gaining momentum. These days every conversation begins with the P/E ratio (price to earning ratio, which compares the current price of the share with its per share earnings) and ends with a loud proclamation that the valuations look ‘a bit stretched.’

However, many experts believe that looking at a ratio in isolation won’t help investors grasp the realities of the market and a higher valuation may not be the only deciding factor driving the market.

‘‘Valuations matter in the long run, but it need not have an impact in the short run. This is because there is never a right valuation for a stock, as it is a highly individual call,’’ says Mukesh Dedhia, director, Ghalla & Bhansali Securities.

‘‘For example, a stock with a higher P/E may be moving ahead further as there is greater demand for the stock because of its higher earnings possibility. So, there is always a bit of confusion about the right valuation,’’ he adds.

‘‘If you look at the broader market, it is difficult to get a value pick. But if you are doing a bottom up method, you would still find many stocks in the market with the right valuation,’’ says Rajiv Thakkar, CEO, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services. Though he is a firm believer of value investing, he says looking at a ratio alone won’t be the right way to investing in a stock.

‘‘There are many things you have to consider. For example, you have to find out whether the growth rate is sustainable or how much capital is required to keep the growth. Sometimes, there would be volume growth, but the margins could be under pressure. There are a host of issues to consider, just looking at a ratio is not enough,’’ he adds.
Some experts also believe that the higher valuations could be justified if foreign investors continue to pump money into the stock market with the hope of better performance by Indian companies.

‘‘The current valuations doesn’t justify the long term growth potential of India. The market is trading 17 times the earnings potential in 2011 and around 13.8 times the earnings forecast for 2012. It even carry a premium of around 50% to other emerging markets and around 25% premium to other global markets,’’ says Devendra Nevgi, Founder & Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners. He believes that the premium can be justified if the foreign investors continue to bet on Indian stocks.

The Nifty started Wednesday’s trade on a rather timid note. As the underlying index was quietly drifting downwards, the futures started trading at a deeper discount of nearly 10 points.

It was the last hour of trade that saw better volumes and a sharp movement. The fall amid global uncertainties has brought the Nifty once again to the level of 5400. Even the participation seems to be a little scared, as Nifty futures ended the day’s trade with an addition of over a million shares in open interest indicating creation of hedges.

As far as stock futures are concerned, we are very near to the highest-ever open interest with 195 crore shares in open interest. With nearly 70% of the stocks still trading with a premium, the bias among participants seems to be upwards. This would create a bit of pressure on the market in case of any macro uncertainty.

As we are almost half way through to expiry, it makes sense to continue with long positions, but along with long puts simultaneously so that losses are capped, still keeping all the upside open.

On the options side, Nifty August series open interest put-call ratio is at 1:58, indicating a moderately bullish composition. Even the implied volatilities element of the options which indicate the assumption of the risk remains very low. This indicates we may not see a huge downside as far as the August expiry is concerned. With over 10 million shares in 5300 August Put, the Nifty may find support around the level of 5300.

We feel one can do a Nifty bear ratio spread to hedge trading longs, by buying 1 lot Nifty August 5400 PE & selling 2 lots of Nifty August 5300 PE.
This strategy accrues profit within the 5200 & 5400 range in case the Nifty ends up in this range on expiry. On the event the Nifty heads upwards to close above 5400, one can still have a cash inflow and no cost of hedging. The strategy does incur loss below 5200, which we feel shall hold good for the August expiry.

(Bhavin Desai is Manager (derivatives), Motilal Oswal Securities )

Indian funds have grabbed seven out of the top 10 spots in the league table of leading small-cap funds across Asia, thanks to some canny stock-picking amid growing investor appetite for cheap stocks with potential to deliver multi-bagger returns.

An analysis of nearly 300 Asian small-cap schemes shows DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund leading the charge, delivering an 82% return over the past year. Managed by Vinit Sambre, who has been with DSP BlackRock for a little over three years, this fund has also soundly beaten the 58% rise of BSE’s Small-Cap Index since August 2009. The 30-share benchmark Sensex has gained 20% during this period while the wider BSE 500 Index is up 27%.

The other six schemes — Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Small Cap, HSBC Small Cap, JPMorgan Smaller Companies, Franklin India Prima, Franklin India Smaller Companies and ING Vysya CUB — have given investors returns between 44% and 57% on a trailing 12-month basis. These schemes manage anywhere between `46 crore and `954 crore.

Four of these funds were launched during the peak of the previous bull run between January 2007 and March 2008, and investors in them have also had to endure a massive erosion in their initial investment in the downturn that followed.

Mutual fund tracking firm Value Research called the DSP fund as an impressive product in the entire “small-cap universe”, noting that the stocks held by it were “credible, known names and there is a marked absence of momentum in the portfolio”. The fund’s holding includes companies with a high return on equity and strong leadership niches in their industries.

Value Research CEO Dhirendra Kumar said the closed-ended nature of some of these funds helped them weather the market turbulence. “These funds did not face redemption pressures through the declining phase. This, in turn helped them invest for the longer term,” he said.The DSP fund became open-ended in June this year and fund manager Mr Sambre has kept nearly 10% of his `311-crore corpus in cash to meet potential redemptions and to latch onto any opportunity in the market.

There are 10 small-cap funds in India, which manage roughly `3,450 crore in stocks. These account for just 2% of the total AUM under equity schemes.

Market experts say that as many large-cap stocks became fully priced and relatively unattractive over the past year, the rally shifted to small caps. Stocks such as cooler maker Symphony and luggage maker VIP Industries have led the small-cap charge in the market. Ahmedabad-based Symphony has surged 830% while VIP has risen 548% in the past 12 months. In comparison, top two gainers on the Sensex — Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services — are up 135% and 61%, respectively.

“Many small caps with excellent businesses were trading at a pathetically low valuations — many were trading below book value and at dividend yields of 5-7%,” says Deven Choksey, chief executive officer at KR Choksey Shares & Securities. “They just got purchased heavily.”

Even though small-cap funds have delivered solid returns in the past one year, experts say that investors must be cautious and have just 10-15% of their equity exposure in such funds or companies. This is largely because of the volatile nature of their stock performance.

“Investors should have a strong stomach and the ability to

withstand substantial declines in such funds,” says Mr Kumar at Value Research.

MUMBAI: A trading combination involving Nifty options is gaining prominence among savvy trading desks of institutional investors. The strategy, known as calendar spread, where traders simultaneously sell options contracts in the current month and purchase in the next month, is being recommended by brokers to institutional clients, who see sharp moves in Nifty options’ implied volatility — a key component of options pricing — in September.

“There is scope for money to be made by selling current month vols (implied volatility) and buying September vols,” said Girish Patil, manager-derivatives, Antique Stockbroking. In this spread strategy, traders use the premium they receive by selling the current series to part-finance the cost of buying options in the next month. “With only a few more days for the August series expiry, vols are unlikely to jump in this series,” Patil said.

Futures and options contracts for the August series will expire on 26th while the September series will expire on 30th next month.

Options sellers, who pocket the premium from the buyer, prefer fewer trading days in a trading month because of time value — another key aspect of options pricing. Time value of options decays closer to expiry of contracts, resulting in limited movements in options prices.

Selling Nifty 5500 calls options in the August series and buying the same contract in the September series is a good strategy in this kind of a market, said Shailesh Kadam, AVP-derivatives, PINC Research.

“This strategy bets that the Nifty will be range-bound and will not move above 5500 in the August series, while the undertone is positive next month,” Kadam said.
In the past one month, the Nifty has largely moved in a tight band between 5350 and 5450, resulting in the volatility index — a measure of traders’ expectations of near-term risks in the market — moving in the 15-20% band, the lowest range since January 2008. This indicates traders are comfortable about the market levels in the near-term.

Brokers said that options traders have struggled to make money, of late, in the absence of sharp index movements. “Vol buyers (buyers of options) have lost their money, while sellers don’t have the courage to sell vols at such low levels,” said the head of derivatives at an institutional broking house. “So, unless there is a sharp move, calendar spread appears to be the best strategy,” he said.

LONDON/MUMBAI: Shares of NRI billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Resources on Friday plunged 5.59 per cent on the London Stock Exchange amid talk that it may acquire a majority stake in the Indian arm of Cairn Energy.

In the late afternoon session, the scrip was being traded at 20.61 pounds, down by 5.50 per cent on the LSE. Vedanta opened on a positive note, but soon swung into the red.

The broader market was also weak and the benchmark FTSE 100 was trading at 5,248.95, down 0.32 per cent in the late afternoon session.

On the other hand, Cairn Energy Plc climbed 1.41 per cent and was being quoted at 4.59 pounds on the LSE.

In India too, Vedanta Group firm Sterlite Industries sank by over 4 per cent to close at Rs 160.70 on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Sterlite was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack today.

In contrast, Cairn Energy Plc’s Indian arm, Cairn India, surged by over 5 per cent to hit its highest-ever level of Rs 358 on the BSE. The scrip ended with a gain of 355.45, up 4.36 per cent.
Vedanta Resources Plc is in talks to acquire a majority 51 per cent stake in Cairn India for about USD 8-8.5 billion (nearly Rs 40,000 crore) and a deal may be announced on Sunday evening or Monday.Scottish explorer Cairn Energy Plc, which holds a 62.37 per cent stake in India-listed Cairn India, is seeking up to a 20 per cent premium for passing on the controlling stake, two persons in-the-know of the development said.

Agarwal “is meeting Cairn Energy Plc Chief Executive Bill Gammell in London today and the deal is likely to be announced as early as Sunday evening or on Monday,” one of them said.

The deal will be contingent on government approval, as Cairn’s three producing oil and gas assets, including the giant Rajasthan fields, and seven exploration blocks either have explicit provisions for seeking prior approval before the transfer of interest or gives pre-emption, or the right of first refusal, on any shares being sold to partners like ONGC.