Business
Auxier Spring 2026 Market Commentary (Mutual Fund:AUXFX)
Donny DBM/iStock via Getty Images

After a strong start in January the market corrected largely due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Technology was the quarter’s worst-performing S&P 500 sector, especially software-related companies which suffered from AI disruption fears, excessive stock-based compensation and high valuations. Adding to that were monetization concerns over a sizable increase in “hyperscaler” capital expenditures in excess of $660 billion. The conflict in Iran and resulting Strait of Hormuz shutdown effectively halted shipping of 20.5-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products that pass through what is one of the world’s most critical commodity corridors. This boosted energy, the best performing sector. Value outperformed growth with the Russell 1000 Value Index advancing 2.10% compared to a decline of 9.78% for the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
Defense Spending on the Rise
Geopolitical uncertainties over the last several years have brought about steadily increasing defense budgets, particularly in the United States which saw an increase from $715 billion in 2020 to just under $850 billion in 2025. For the first time ever, the 2026 budget exceeds $1 trillion. These increases have been driven by events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the war in Israel. Most recently, the US proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, citing factors like increasing global threats and the need for more domestic defense infrastructure. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and RTX (RTX) stand to be among the largest beneficiaries of rising defense budgets, as all three are prime contractors for the US’s proposed $185 billion “Golden Dome” nationwide missile defense system. General Dynamics (GD), meanwhile, serves as the prime contractor for the nation’s $65.8 billion naval modernization effort. Boeing (BA) should see consistent revenue following their award of the F-47 next-generation aircraft contract, which is particularly attractive as aircraft programs typically run for decades. The previous generation F-35 first delivered in 2011 is still in production. Outside of traditional defense companies, we also see some tech names as beneficiaries of higher military spending with Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) providing processing and compute for current and future autonomous vehicle and drone programs.
Growing Risk in Private Equity and Private Capital
The private equity and credit markets have exploded in growth over the last decade and are among the fastest-growing alternative asset classes. S&P Global estimated that private market assets under management totaled $15 trillion in 2024, up from $10.89 trillion in 2022. They project that those markets could reach more than $18 trillion by 2027. Private equity investments account for over half of the market. This lightly regulated industry is now facing headwinds. Payment-in-Kind loans have flourished as borrowers struggle to meet cash interest payments. Private equity funds are unable to exit their mid-market companies and investors are questioning valuation parameters. The opaque nature of these funds has further damaged investor confidence.
AI Disruption Fears Hit Software Companies Hard
The Software as a Service (SaaS) industry was one of the hardest hit areas of the market during the first quarter as investors have increasingly become uncertain over AI’s potential for disruption that could commoditize the industry and compress profit margins. Forbes reported that the software sector’s price-to-earnings ratio fell to 20 times during the first quarter compared to around 35 at the end of 2025, the lowest level since 2014. Companies like Intuit (INTU), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM) and FICO (FICO) saw their shares fall 30%-37% during the first quarter despite reporting strong earnings. Investors fear that AI agents could replace much of the work currently performed by software companies for a fraction of the cost. Intuit has been working to counter the fears by heavily investing in their AI agent platform, bringing it to all their existing products. Adobe has been doing the same and both companies have seen strong support for AI features with around 90% of users taking advantage of the new capabilities. On the commodity risk side, these companies possess an advantage over popular general purpose AI models as they have access to specialized proprietary data they can use to train their own models. Adobe owns hundreds of licensed images they use for training and provides protection from litigation. Intuit instills confidence that taxes and business operations will comply with laws and regulations. AI models training only on public general data have a history of hallucinating false information and presenting it as fact which could be incredibly costly when dealing with important financial information. Proprietary data and the promise of security is something that we see as an advantage for long-standing SaaS companies that could help them better compete with growing AI players. It is amazing to see the P/E compression of these stocks since Covid. Fiserv (FI)—an unglamorous back-office processor for banks—was valued at over 100x earnings four years ago and now trades at just 7x, despite delivering 39 consecutive years of double-digit earnings-per-share growth.
Contributors
Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reached all-time highs following their first quarter earnings report of a 42% increase in year-over-year earnings per share along with an 18% increase in interest income resulting from higher yields. Assets under management grew 12% to a record $59.4 trillion. AI initiatives have been paying off as AI agents led to 20% faster client onboarding and 80% faster settlement inquiry investigation; agents are now writing 40% of all code. They returned $1.4 billion through repurchases and dividends and authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program. CEO Robin Vince has done an exceptional job since taking over four years ago. Major US banks as a whole are aggressively retiring stock in 2026 due to recent deregulation, with a record $33 billion bought back in the first quarter alone—up 35% from the prior year quarter. This is the type of “double play” return we seek; an undervalued, vital, dull business with inspired management improving operating results leading to a sixfold return on our investment.
Industrials were the best performing sector during the quarter relative to the overall Fund, due in part from strong reshoring thanks to low domestic natural gas prices, legislation like the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts as well as geopolitical risks that incentivize companies to return manufacturing to the US. Last year’s massive increase in hyperscaler capital expenditures continues, projected to be over $650 billion this year and may account for up to half of US GDP growth. Strong performers in the Fund included Gates (GTES), Caterpillar (CAT), Corning (GLW), and FedEx (FDX). Corning has seen strong demand for their optical connectivity products used in AI-focused data centers. Corning CEO Wendell Weeks is impressive in his ability to execute.
Defense and aerospace companies Boeing, Parker-Hannifin (PH), General Dynamics and RTX have reaped the benefits of a massive increase in global defense spending in response to rising conflicts.
Skilled labor educators Lincoln Educational (LINC) and Universal Technical Institute (UTI) have reported strong growth in student starts as demand for trades continues to rise. The expansion of data centers has led to high demand for electricians, HVAC technicians, welders and CNC machining engineers. AI automation is expected to impact many professional industries, driving interest in trades that are viewed as more resistant to disruption. Reshoring trends in the US specifically in the semiconductor and defense industries are also contributing to strong student starts.
Energy refiners Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) outperformed with diesel and Jet A fuel prices soaring. The crack spread hit a record $88.25 per barrel of oil in March. Chevron (CVX) has been a major beneficiary of years of diligent investments in oil and gas production.
Detractors
UnitedHealth (UNH) has been a major laggard for the past quarter and year. However, since CEO Stephen Hemsley’s return last May operating performance has been improving. We made over a fivefold return under his previous tenure from 2006-2017 and are confident that he can navigate a successful turnaround going forward. The recent medical cost ratio (MCR) of 83.9% is the lowest in two years and combined with a 2.48% CMS rate increase this spring has been a big boost. The lower amount spent on patient medical claims follows the company’s late 2025 shift to focus on higher margin patients over aggressive membership growth. Total membership has fallen by about 700,000 since the end of 2025. Management cited their higher margins as the reason for raising their full year adjusted earnings per share guidance to over $18.25, up from their previous guidance of $17.75 in January and consensus estimates of $17.86. Going forward, management also announced at least $1.5 billion in spending on artificial intelligence technology in 2026. This technology will be focused on areas like helping members understand their coverage and automating some administrative tasks and claims processing.
Software-related stocks in the portfolio have been hit hard due to the threat of margin compression from artificial intelligence. Microsoft (MSFT)’s 21.9% drop in the quarter was the worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis. They are spending $190 billion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2026 yet their AI Copilot product has failed to scale, with less than 15 million total paid seats. Google Gemini has successfully integrated their AI and captured the largest share of casual AI users with 2 billion people interacting with “Gemini-powered AI overviews” in Google Search every month. Microsoft has a large installed base with Fortune 500 companies. They have over $88 billion in cash on the balance sheet which is a huge competitive advantage. It is hard to bet against CEO Satya Nadella who took over in February 2014 and has a great record with the stock up over elevenfold.
First Quarter 2026 Performance Update
Auxier Focus Fund’s Investor Class gained 1.73% in the first quarter of 2026 with stocks up 2.00%. For the same period the S&P 500 cap-weighted index declined 4.33% and the equal weight returned 0.67%. The Russell 1000 Value was up 2.10%. For the quarter, fixed income investments as measured by the S&P US Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.04% and the longer-dated ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index was up 0.11%. Stocks in the Fund comprised 92% of the portfolio. The breakdown was 82.5% domestic and 9.5% foreign, with 8.0% in short-term debt instruments. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the Fund from inception on July 9, 1999 to March 31, 2026 is now worth $77,083 vs $75,861 for the S&P 500 and $65,542.76 for the Russell 1000 Value Index. During the same period, equities in the Fund (entire portfolio, not share class specific) have had a gross cumulative return of 1,323.34% vs 658.61% for the S&P. The Fund had an average exposure to the market of 82% over the entire period. Our results are unleveraged.
In Closing
We continue to seek businesses and managements displaying a strong culture with a heart and soul. Great leadership combined with enduring business models purchased in periods of fear and uncertainty have generated most of our returns over the past three decades. We have had good luck
with gritty founder CEOs who love their business. There is however a shortage of great operators. The key is to identify these managers and businesses ahead of time and do vigorous daily research to determine the sustainable earnings power of each entity. While we are aggressively monitoring the risks of a continued Strait of Hormuz shutdown, we remain mindful that many opportunities can be missed by focusing too much on macro headlines and not enough on micro details of improving operating fundamentals with exceptional leaders. Program trading dominates the investment landscape, but we firmly believe that investing is still the craft of the specific and knowing what you own is crucial to mitigating risk and improving investment odds.
Finally, during this time of global turmoil Warren Buffett said it best: “What we learn from history is that people do not learn from history. You can count on fear, greed and folly to be ever present in the marketplace. Their sequence is unpredictable; their duration is unpredictable; and their effects are unpredictable. But their presence is certain. ” Emotional and psychological responses to money often lead to substantial misappraisals in auction markets, creating new opportunities.
We appreciate your trust.
Jeff Auxier
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Business
CME Sues U.S. Regulator to Stop Kalshi From Offering Popular ‘Perp’ Futures
CME Group sued the top U.S. derivatives regulator Thursday to thwart Kalshi, an upstart prediction-markets platform, from encroaching on its turf as the nation’s leading futures exchange.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently approved Kalshi’s plan to list perpetual futures contracts, known as “perps,” a trendy flavor of derivative that never expires and trades 24/7. In its suit, filed in federal court in Washington, CME argued that the CFTC violated U.S. law by classifying Kalshi’s perps as futures and not swaps. In doing so, the CFTC decision allows Kalshi to sidestep rules intended to protect the economy from the “special dangers that unregulated swaps posed,” lawyers for the exchange operator wrote.
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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Why Private Credit Risks May Be Unfairly Tarnishing Private Markets
TD Wealth is an integral part of the TD Bank Group, which has approximately 24 million customers worldwide, 85,000 employees and CDN $1 trillion in assets on April 30, 2015.
In Canada, TD Wealth services customers through:
· TD Direct Investing which provides clients access to the information, tools and support that empower them to invest for themselves with confidence.
· TD Wealth Private Client Group, which provides discretionary wealth management for high net worth clients and businesses.
· TD Wealth Private Investment Advice provides full service brokerage for investors who want a high level of tailored advice and solutions.
· TD Wealth Financial Planning develops and implements a financial plan for individual clients.
At TD Wealth, whether you invest yourself or benefit from the knowledge provided by your advisor, you gain access to some of the industry’s most highly regarded investment analysts, economists and market strategists.
Business
Man Arrested on Attempted Murder Charge After Boy, 3, Ends Up in Crocodile Enclosure at UK Zoo
LONDON — A man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a 3-year-old boy ended up in a crocodile enclosure at an English zoo Thursday afternoon, leaving the child with serious injuries and critically but stably hospitalized.
The “distressing incident” occurred Thursday afternoon at Johnsons of Old Hurst, a family-run farm and zoo located in Huntingdon in Cambridgeshire, police said. Cambridgeshire Police said officers were called to the zoo at 1:24 p.m. to reports of an incident involving a three-year-old boy, during which he ended up in the crocodile enclosure.
The Boy’s Condition
The boy “ended up in the crocodile enclosure” and was taken to a local hospital, where he was in critical but stable condition, Cambridgeshire police said. The child has been taken to the hospital with serious injuries and is in critical but stable condition, police said, adding that specially trained officers are supporting the boy and his family.
The Arrest
A 30-year-old man from Norfolk was arrested, and police say they do not believe he and the child are known to each other, and an investigation is underway. A 30-year-old man who is an apparent stranger to the child has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder in connection with the incident, police said.
Detective Inspector Verity McCann, leading the investigation, described the early stages of the inquiry. “At this stage we are speaking to people who were at the zoo at the time of this distressing incident to understand more about the circumstances,” said Detective Inspector Verity McCann.
A Possible Rescue Attempt
Local accounts have suggested that a member of the zoo’s ownership family may have intervened during the incident in an effort to help the child. A villager who did not want to be named told the Press Association that the zoo owner’s wife, Tracey Johnson, jumped in to try to save the child. That detail has not been independently confirmed by Cambridgeshire Police in their official statements on the incident.
The Zoo’s Response
Johnsons of Old Hurst issued a statement on social media following the incident, expressing condolences to the boy and his family. “Our thoughts and prayers are with the boy and his family following the incident that occurred today,” Johnsons of Old Hurst said in a statement on social media Thursday.
The zoo also announced a decision to close part of its facility in the wake of the incident. Johnsons of Old Hurst said its tropical house, which is home to multiple species of crocodiles and other reptiles, will remain closed until further notice “out of respect to the family.”
An Active and Ongoing Investigation
Police have emphasized that the investigation remains in its early stages, with officers working to gather witness accounts and establish a clearer picture of exactly how the incident unfolded. This is a developing story and will be updated with the latest information as soon as it becomes available, according to one local outlet covering the case as details continue to emerge.
Cambridgeshire Police have not yet released additional details about the specific circumstances that led to the boy ending up inside the enclosure, nor have they elaborated further on the nature of the relationship — or lack thereof — between the arrested man and the child’s family beyond confirming they do not believe the two are known to each other.
A Family-Run Attraction in Rural Cambridgeshire
Johnsons of Old Hurst operates as a family-run farm and zoo in the village of Old Hurst, near Huntingdon in Cambridgeshire, in eastern England. The facility’s tropical house, now closed indefinitely following Thursday’s incident, houses a collection of crocodiles and other reptile species as one of its featured attractions for visitors.
The zoo’s decision to voluntarily close that section of the facility reflects both the gravity of the incident and an apparent effort by management to allow space for the investigation to proceed and for the affected family to process what police have described as a deeply distressing event.
What Happens Next
With the 30-year-old suspect now in custody on suspicion of attempted murder and the boy remaining hospitalized in critical but stable condition, the investigation is expected to continue in the coming days as Cambridgeshire Police work to interview additional witnesses who were present at the zoo at the time of the incident. Detective Inspector McCann’s comments suggest investigators are still working to establish a complete account of what occurred before any further details about specific charges or the circumstances of the incident are likely to be released publicly.
Authorities have not indicated when additional information about the case might be made available, and no further updates regarding either the boy’s medical condition or the status of the criminal investigation had been released as of the most recent police statement.
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Jordan Spieth Says Brutal PGA Tour Courses This Season Have Him Ready for U.S. Open Return
Jordan Spieth has admitted that he has found the majority of the courses on the PGA Tour extremely challenging this season, as he reflected on a mixed year so far ahead of his return to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills — a course where he previously missed the cut and a tournament where his career record remains surprisingly thin.
The Memorial Tournament marked perhaps the lowest point in Spieth’s season so far, with the 32-year-old missing the cut after posting a 79 on Friday at Muirfield Village.
A Season of Consistency Without a Breakthrough
Despite that recent setback, Spieth’s overall body of work this season has shown a notable level of week-to-week consistency, even if it has yet to produce a signature result. It is quite remarkable that he has registered eight top-25 finishes without breaking into the top 10. He finished tied for 11th at both Bay Hill and the Valspar Championship.
That pattern of steady, if unspectacular, finishes reflects what appears to be genuine all-around improvement in his game, even as the results have not yet translated into the kind of statement performance fans have come to expect from the three-time major champion. Spieth is arguably becoming a solid all-around golfer. He is not outside the top 100 on the PGA Tour for any of the major strokes gained categories.
However, that broad-based competence has not yet resulted in the three-time major champion contending for a first victory on the PGA Tour since the 2022 RBC Heritage — a winless drought that has now stretched across multiple seasons.
Explaining the Difficulty of This Year’s Setups
Spieth offered insight into why he may be struggling to find his very best form this season when asked by CBS Sports about his preparations ahead of the major championships, specifically heading into the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.
“No, frankly we have played probably 12 US Opens this year, it has felt like. The courses have been brutally hard this season. It’s kind of nice,” he said.
Far from framing the difficulty purely as a complaint, Spieth suggested the unusually demanding course setups this season may actually serve as valuable preparation for the brutal test that typically awaits players at the U.S. Open. “It’s nice to have already played it before in a US Open. That limits the field down to a lot less people who were actually there. I kind of know what to expect heading into it I guess, as far as what it is going to require,” he said.
Gathering Intelligence From Players Who Have Already Competed There
Beyond his own previous experience at the venue, Spieth indicated he has also been actively seeking out information from fellow competitors who had already played the course before this year’s championship. “Then I have asked some questions from some guys who have already gone and played it. Is it going to be the narrower one or is it going to be the one in 18 where they left it a bit wider but you better hit the fairway that they give you. It seems like that will be the route,” he said.
That kind of scouting reflects a broader theme in Spieth’s comments about the specific demands the course places on a player’s short game and precision around the greens. “I remember the greens but hitting on those, you started working on a bit more touch and finesse and chipping and stuff like that. There’s definitely a bit more work as you get closer to the green, when you are preparing for a US Open you have to be a bit tighter,” he said.
A Career-Defining Win That Hasn’t Repeated
Spieth’s relationship with the U.S. Open carries particular historical weight given how his career began. Spieth made a real statement with his victory at Chambers Bay in 2015. The win meant that he had taken home the first two majors of the year.
It was difficult not to feel that Spieth was destined to dominate the game for some time. Certainly, few would have ever imagined that he would only win one more major heading into 2026.
A Surprisingly Difficult Championship for Spieth
Despite his breakthrough victory at Chambers Bay, the U.S. Open has proven to be a notably difficult championship for Spieth to replicate success in over the course of his career. It may be a real surprise to some to know that Spieth’s U.S. Open record is incredibly poor. In fact, the 2015 win marks the only time he has finished inside the top 10 at the event.
Meanwhile, he has missed the cut four times, most recently in 2023. That spotty record stands in contrast to his performance at golf’s other major championships, where Spieth has generally remained a more consistent contender throughout his career.
A Difficult History at Shinnecock Hills Specifically
The challenge facing Spieth this week carries an added layer of significance given his prior experience at this particular venue. Crucially, he did not make it through to the weekend when the U.S. Open was last at Shinnecock. It was the only major that year where Spieth finished outside the top 12.
That previous missed cut at Shinnecock adds extra motivation for Spieth as he returns to the course this week, armed with what he describes as a season’s worth of preparation against unusually demanding course conditions on the PGA Tour. He will hope that the PGA Tour season so far has properly prepared him for the upcoming test.
With Spieth now back at Shinnecock Hills for the first time since his earlier missed cut at the venue, his comments suggest a golfer who has approached this season’s difficult course setups not merely as a source of frustration, but as a deliberate, if unintentional, form of preparation for exactly the kind of brutal test the U.S. Open is known to present. Whether that preparation translates into a better result than his previous trip to Shinnecock — or his broader U.S. Open record overall — will become clear as the championship unfolds this week, with Spieth still chasing his first PGA Tour victory since 2022 and his second career U.S. Open title since that breakthrough win a decade ago at Chambers Bay.
Business
Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Prepared Remarks Transcript
Operator
Good afternoon. Welcome to the Conifex Timber Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ken Shields. Please go ahead.
Kenneth Shields
Chairman & CEO
Well, thank you, Gary, and good afternoon, everyone. My name is Ken Shields, and I’m the Chairman and CEO of Conifex. In accordance with our bylaws, I will act as Chairman. I will now call the meeting to order.
Most of our shareholders are joining us today by teleconference instead of attending in person. I’d like to thank those of you who have called in today to listen in on our meeting.
I’d like to appoint Trevor Pruden, our Chief Financial Officer as Secretary; Gary Gill of Sangra Law Firm as Recording Secretary and Loretta Pataki of Computershare Investor Services as the scrutineer. If anyone hasn’t registered with the scrutineer, please do so now.
I have a copy of the notice calling this meeting and an affidavit of mailing of [ Michael Kiami ] of Computershare Trust Company of Canada. Since notice of this meeting has been circulated, I will dispense with the reading of the notice calling this meeting. In accordance with the Canada Business Corporations Act, the notice of meeting and record date was also published in The Globe and Mail newspaper on April 27, 2026.
Turning to the scrutineer’s report. It indicates that there are 28 shareholders present in person or by proxy totaling 11,649,303 shares, which represents approximately 28.57% of our 40,767,710 outstanding shares as of the record date. In accordance with our bylaws, I declare that a quorum of shareholders is present, and this meeting is regularly and duly called
Business
Former FBI Agent Questions Why Nancy Guthrie Case Investigators Haven’t Released Enhanced Suspect Photo
The disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today show host Savannah Guthrie, has become a high-profile missing persons case that has captivated the public and drawn scrutiny from veteran law enforcement experts, with a former FBI agent now publicly raising pointed questions about the investigation’s transparency and pace nearly five months after Guthrie vanished from her home.
Since her disappearance from her home in the Catalina Foothills near Tucson, Arizona, several theories related to Nancy’s kidnapping and the motives behind it have emerged, drawing investigatory efforts from the Pima County Sheriff’s Department and the FBI. Throughout the investigatory period, various forensic experts and retired FBI agents have offered their insights into the case.
A Former Agent’s Public Critique
In a recent development, former FBI agent Jennifer Coffindaffer, who now works as an expert sharing insight on crimes or missing persons cases across the country, raised serious concerns over the investigation into Nancy’s disappearance. Taking to X, she made a series of pointed points, questioning the search efforts of law enforcement.
“LE and the FBI are making no sense,” Coffindaffer wrote. It is noteworthy that the Pima County Sheriff’s Department, and Sheriff Chris Nanos in particular, have been under fire for mishandling forensic evidence and not allowing the FBI to assist them at the earliest hour.
Questions About the Doorbell Camera Suspect
Coffindaffer focused much of her criticism on what she described as a failure to make full public use of the most concrete piece of visual evidence investigators have recovered — footage of a masked individual caught tampering with Guthrie’s doorbell camera around the time of her disappearance.
“Where is the enhanced photo of Porch guy. It exists. Why not share with the public for their help?” she wrote.
She extended that critique to the public billboard campaign currently associated with the case, arguing that its current focus may not be the most effective use of public outreach resources. “Billboards: Why is Nancy’s face on them? Put Porch Guy’s face & add Spanish if you want more of the public’s help. Or do you know who porch Guy is?” she wrote.
Concerns Over Traffic and Surveillance Camera Evidence
Coffindaffer also questioned why investigators have not released any information gathered from nearby traffic cameras or home security systems despite the passage of several months since Guthrie’s disappearance. “Vehicles: Nothing on any traffic or Ring/Nest cams to distribute after 4 Months? Nothing. It is unfortunately possible,” she wrote.
A Halt in Public Search Efforts
Beyond the handling of physical and digital evidence, Coffindaffer raised concerns about an apparent pause in organized public search activity for Guthrie following the earliest days of the case. “Finally, 0 searches since day 2? Why? What could it hurt?” she wrote, flagging the lack of public searches as a particular point of concern.
No Early Coordination With Mexican Authorities
Coffindaffer also pointed to what she characterized as a missed opportunity to coordinate with authorities across the border, a notable omission given the property’s relative proximity to Mexico. “No contact with Mexican authorities from the beginning—Remember,” she wrote.
Her remarks come amid speculation that Nancy might have been taken to the border area. Last week, officials reportedly received a tip that her body might have been buried in Mexico, adding a fresh and unconfirmed dimension to the case’s already complex set of competing theories.
Two Possible Explanations, in Coffindaffer’s View
Drawing on her background in federal law enforcement, Coffindaffer suggested the investigation’s current posture points to one of two distinct possibilities. “Either LE knows who is responsible or the ball has been dropped,” she wrote.
She elaborated further on that assessment, drawing directly on her own professional background. “25 years in the FBI tells me they must have an idea of who is behind this. If this is not the case, then let the public help. Release the enhanced photos. Change the billboards,” she wrote.
Public Reaction to Her Comments
Coffindaffer’s post generated significant engagement and a range of reactions from social media users following the case closely. One user wrote, “Great post! IF they don’t have anyone in their crosshairs, this complete silence doesn’t make sense after asking for the public to help!”
Another commenter echoed Coffindaffer’s specific concern about the doorbell camera footage, writing, “Where is the enhanced photo of Porch guy. It exists. Why not share with the public for their help? Where is it?”
A third commenter offered a broader critique of how information has been shared across the agencies involved in the case, writing, “From early on there has been siloed information sharing and no updated combined (local & FBI) pressers. Just isolated interviews with the Sheriff projecting hope. A fly on the wall would probably reveal the Sheriff being very territorial even over intelligence dissemination.”
The Broader Context of the Investigation
Coffindaffer’s critique adds to a chorus of public commentary from retired law enforcement professionals who have weighed in on the case in recent months as it has stretched on without a confirmed suspect or resolution. The case was formally upgraded from a missing persons investigation to a homicide investigation by the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department earlier this year, even as no official suspects have been named and the masked individual seen on Guthrie’s doorbell camera remains unidentified.
The tension Coffindaffer and others have pointed to — between a law enforcement strategy that may be quietly pursuing a specific lead versus one that has genuinely stalled — reflects a broader public frustration that has built steadily as the investigation has continued without major public breakthroughs nearly five months after Guthrie’s disappearance.
Neither the FBI nor the Pima County Sheriff’s Department has publicly responded to Coffindaffer’s specific critique regarding the unreleased enhanced photo, the billboard campaign’s current focus, or the apparent lack of coordination with Mexican authorities. With public scrutiny of the investigation continuing to mount and unconfirmed tips — including the recent report regarding a possible burial site in Mexico — continuing to circulate, pressure appears likely to keep building on investigators to provide more detailed public updates on the case’s status, the evidence gathered so far, and the strategy guiding the search for both Nancy Guthrie and whoever may be responsible for her disappearance.
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