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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh envisions a central bank whose interest-rate decisions don’t hinge on the latest monthly data. That vision may have to wait.

Two inflation reports over the next month are set to shape whether his colleagues push to raise rates in September or extend their pause.

A cool number in Wednesday’s release of the July consumer-price index would relieve pressure on both Warsh personally and a policy committee weighing whether it has misread the U.S. economy. A firm one could force him to demonstrate with action what he struggled last month to convey in words.

The CPI feeds into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to be published later this month. Economists expect core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, to have risen 0.2% in July. Monthly readings at or below that level would be consistent with inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% goal. Anything higher would not. Core inflation in the preferred gauge was 3.3% in June, up from 2.8% a year earlier.

FTSE 250 construction giant bucks UK construction outlook with strong infrastructure investment and US housebuilding demand

Balfour Beatty has raised its earnings and cash flow targets, as the construction giant’s “real momentum” defies the sector’s general gloom.

The group, which partners with the government on major infrastructure schemes, has seen its order book surge by 17 per cent to £22.9bn in the six months to June, while revenue climbed eight per cent to £5.6bn.

This upturn in revenue was underpinned by growing demand in US housebuilding and the UK’s power industry, the firm confirmed.

The FTSE 250 company upgraded its earnings targets from low single to high double-digit growth and raised the upper limit of its net cash forecast from £1.5bn to £1.7bn.

The infrastructure behemoth recorded a 42 per cent rise in underlying profit to £153m over the period, although its headline pre-tax profit edged down by two per cent to £129m, as reported by City AM.

Chief executive Phillip Hoare said: “Balfour Beatty enters the second half with real momentum.

“Our strong first-half performance reflects the quality of our business, the discipline of our execution and, above all, the exceptional contribution of our people in delivering for our customers.”

The group’s buoyant trading update stands in stark contrast to the prevailing gloom across the UK’s construction sector, as housebuilders and materials suppliers flag mounting costs and weakening private-sector demand.

On Tuesday, prominent housebuilder Bellway called on the government to reduce stamp duty in order to stimulate construction activity. Last month, the chief executive of property portal Rightmove stated that the nation’s housebuilders are confronting conditions “among the most difficult experienced since the global financial crisis”.

However, Balfour Beatty highlighted expansion in the UK’s energy, defence and transport infrastructure sectors as a principal catalyst behind its revenue increases.

“These markets are supported by strong funding commitments and enduring customer demand, providing attractive growth opportunities over the near to medium term,” the group informed shareholders.

The robustness of demand for these infrastructure projects enables Balfour Beatty to be “disciplined and selective” in choosing which work to pursue, the company stated.

Significant contracts secured by the business during the year to date include a £325m power transmission scheme in Scotland, a £315m road maintenance programme in Warwickshire and $350m (£259m) worth of US data centre commissions.

“We expected a strong performance and Balfour Beatty delivered again,” analysts at Peel Hunt remarked, noting that the company’s revenue visibility “continues to drive a higher quality of growth.”

Alex Pugh, an analyst at Freetrade, observed that the group has successfully sidestepped the challenges confronting private-sector housebuilders by concentrating on demand “in areas where spending is hard to avoid: power networks, transport, defence and US buildings”. “This is a company in the right place at the right time. […] The balance sheet is doing some heavy lifting too. Strong cash generation means Balfour can fund growth and still keep investors sweet with dividends and buybacks.”

Indian aluminium stocks witnessed a sharp rally on Wednesday following a major supply-side disruption in global metal markets. National Aluminium Company (NALCO) shares surged as much as 8% to Rs 418.95, while Hindalco Industries gained 2.7% to around Rs 1,080.60. The buying momentum came as global aluminium prices rose to a seven-week high in London.

The immediate catalyst behind the rally was an operational disruption at Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte facility in Brazil, one of the world’s largest alumina producers. The company said Alunorte had been forced to cut output to 50% of capacity after its natural gas supplier, CELBA, reported an unexpected supply disruption.

Alumina is the key raw material used by smelters to produce primary aluminium. Any reduction in alumina output could therefore tighten raw material supplies and disrupt the global aluminium supply chain.

While Norsk Hydro confirmed that Alunorte intends to ramp alumina production back to full capacity as soon as natural gas availability permits, the road to recovery remains clouded by financial troubles at the supplier end. CELBA is owned by New Fortress Energy, a heavily indebted firm currently undergoing a complex financial restructuring. This ongoing corporate restructuring introduces noticeable uncertainty regarding how quickly full natural gas deliveries can be restored to the Brazilian refinery.

Middle East disruptions and multi-decade low inventories

This fresh production setback in South America lands on a market that was already struggling under severe operational pressures. Ongoing war involving Iran has severely disrupted physical metal shipments out of the Middle East, a crucial production hub that generates approximately one-tenth of the world’s aluminum supply. Although metal prices temporarily backed off after the intense opening weeks of the conflict, they have mounted a strong rebound since late June.
Compounding the supply squeeze, aluminum stockpiles held across London Metal Exchange (LME) registered warehouses have suffered a steady drawdown throughout the year. Inventory levels have now fallen close to a quarter of a million tons, marking their lowest point since November 1990, despite fresh metal arrivals entering the market from Chinese and Indonesian producers. Norsk Hydro had previously cautioned last month that the global annual supply shortfall could widen to over 900,000 tons if trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz are not normalized.
Geopolitical deadlock signals prolonged price support
Hopes for a quick resumption of normal trade flows have dimmed further as geopolitical negotiations show signs of stalling. U.S. President Donald Trump recently outlined extensive new demands on Iran, demanding financial compensation for individuals killed by Tehran, following Iran’s own demands for reparations as part of discussions to wind down the conflict. These hardening political stances suggest a much longer grind toward any potential diplomatic resolution.

Industry experts believe that the combination of stalled Middle East peace talks and raw material bottlenecks will keep the global aluminum market tight for longer. Yan Weijun, head of nonferrous metals research at Chinese trading firm Xiamen C&D Inc., noted that negotiations in the Middle East are not proceeding smoothly, which should continue to provide solid support for aluminum prices. For Indian producers like NALCO and Hindalco, rising global prices and constrained supply offer a strong tailwind for realizations and profitability.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

The world’s largest travel and tourism firm swung to a €17m airline loss

Tui has reported a fall in earnings at its airlines division as the Iran conflict continues to cause significant disruption to global tourism routes and drive up fuel costs.

The Frankfurt-listed group, the world’s largest travel and tourism company, swung to a €17m loss in its airlines arm in the six months to June, reversing a €50m profit recorded in the same period the previous year.

“This development was driven by weaker demand as a result of geopolitical developments and increased price pressure in a market environment characterised by higher fuel costs and additional capacity on the market,” the group said.

Tui’s airline revenue fell by eight per cent to €4.9bn over the period, although turnover climbed in its hotels, resorts and cruise divisions.

The group’s overall revenue dropped by six per cent to €5.8bn, while its underlying group profit declined 27 per cent year on year to €235m, falling short of analyst expectations of €274m, as reported by City AM.

“The quarter continued to be characterised by a challenging market environment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, in particular the war in Iran, economic weakness in Europe’s core markets and consumer caution evident across many sectors,” Tui told shareholders.

The group’s ‘musements’ division, which offers tours and activities, proved a rare bright spot for Tui, recording a nine per cent rise in underlying profit to €22.7m.

Sebastian Ebel, the firm’s chief executive, maintained that Tui has “held its own well in a difficult global environment”. “Wars and geopolitical tensions, consumer caution, economic weakness and rising inflation in Europe’s core markets – all these factors have influenced consumer sentiment and the timing of purchasing decisions,” he added.

Ebel noted that booking behaviour has been “picking up again” over the past few weeks, but acknowledged that holidaymakers are purchasing tickets at the last minute in an attempt to sidestep the travel disruption caused by the Iran war.

Shares in Tui fell by three per cent to €7 in early trading, leaving the stock down 21 per cent since the start of the year.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said Tui’s investors “may feel they need a holiday” following Wednesday’s turbulent results.

“The weak quarter adds more pressure for a clean landing in the final stretch of the year, and while the runway still remains relatively wide, management is likely to be buckling up for a tricky approach,” he added.

On Tuesday, Holiday Inn owner Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) disclosed that a downturn in revenue across its Middle East operations is weighing on its overall growth.

The hotels group, which also owns the Crowne Plaza and Vignette Collection brands, reported that its revenue per available room declined by 19 per cent year on year in the three months to June.

The FTSE 100 firm informed shareholders that it is contending with “ongoing impacts from the Middle East conflict, including some wider disruption to international travel flows”.

India’s markets regulator has not observed any manipulation in the newly introduced closing auction session that determines closing price levels, the Securities and Exchange Board of India chairman said on Wednesday.

The closing auction is a big ‌market structure ⁠reform ⁠in line with global standards, Tuhin Kanta Pandey said at an event in Mumbai.

“We are considering all inputs to increase ​participation,” Pandey said, adding that any new system requires time to settle and attract more participation.

The ​closing auction is a separate 20-minute ⁠session introduced ‌last week in which exchanges ​collect buy ​and sell orders to determine a ⁠stock’s closing price at a level where the ​maximum volume can be executed.

The mechanism, ​which replaced the previous method of using the average price of trades in the final 30 minutes of regular trading, was introduced to provide a fairer and more transparent closing price ‌and improve execution efficiency for large orders.

The change has raised concerns about thinning participation ​and losses ​for some ⁠market players.
Mutual funds’ participation in the new system has risen from around 5%-6% on the first day to ​about 20%-25% since then, the regulator said.

The reform was needed to reduce tracking error for passive funds, he added.

The Welsh Government has announced co-chairs for the taskforce

The Welsh Government has announced co-chairs for a new town centre taskforce, alongside £1m of new funding to support regeneration projects in Bangor and Bridgend.

Tamsin Ramasut and Professor Simon Gibson will lead the taskforce, which will provide practical, expert advice on supporting the future of Wales’s town centres. Their appointment delivers on a key Government commitment to establish the taskforce within its first 100 days.

Working with members from business, local government, regeneration, planning, academia and communities, the co-chairs will oversee a programme of work to develop practical recommendations for Welsh Ministers on securing the future of town centres.

Ms Ramasut is an experienced regeneration, placemaking and community engagement practitioner. Through her work with Pont Collective and previous roles, she has supported the delivery of regeneration projects and place-based initiatives across Wales and beyond.

As the founder of the graduate entrepreneurship Alacrity programme and previous leadership roles in Wesley Clover, Ubiquity Software and the Welsh Development Agency (board member,) Prof Gibson helped attract investment, support entrepreneurship and drive business growth across Wales.

The announcement was made during a visit to Welsh Government funded projects in Bangor town centre, where £654,000 for public realm improvements was also confirmed. A further £350,000 has been confirmed to support the future regeneration of the Rhiw Shopping Centre in Bridgend.

Cabinet Minister for Local Government, Housing and Planning, Siân Gwenllian, said: “Town centres remain at the heart of communities across Wales. They are places where people work, access services, spend time with family and friends and take part in civic and cultural life.

“However, they continue to face significant challenges as a result of changing consumer behaviour, economic pressures and the evolving role town centres play in everyday life.

“That’s why we are establishing this taskforce to champion the future of Welsh town centres. It will identify actions to help challenge decline, encourage changes in use to increase footfall, support Welsh businesses, attract investment and strengthen the long-term vitality of towns and city centres.”

Ms Ramasut said: “I’m honoured to co-chair this national task force. Town centres are central to thriving communities-places where people connect, local businesses grow and provide employment and create a sense of belonging. I’m looking forward to working collaboratively to help our town centres thrive across Wales.”

Professor Gibson said: “Our town centres are vital to communities and local economies across Wales, yet they face significant challenges that demand urgent action and fresh thinking.

” I am pleased to co-chair this taskforce, which brings together leaders from across sectors to develop innovative, practical solutions that remove barriers to growth, preserve presence and help create more vibrant, resilient town centres fit for the 21st century.”

N Chandrasekaran, the chairman of Tata Group, has said that he will not seek reappointment when his term ends in February.

The 63-year-old said the decision came after the board of Tata Sons could not reach a resolution on a five-year extension of his term, months after the proposal first came up.

The news sent shares of listed Tata companies plunging and has led to questions over what lies ahead for the gigantic salt-to-steel conglomerate that owns Air India, Tata Steel and Jaguar Land Rover.

Chandrasekaran’s resignation, which comes days ahead of Tata Sons’ annual general meeting, points to tensions that have been playing out for months after a boardroom power battle erupted between trustees.

The Tata Group is uniquely structured – a charitable arm called Tata Trusts owns 66% of the group’s parent company, Tata Sons. This has given the group tax and regulatory advantages, and allows it to carry out charitable activities, but experts say that its dual non-profit and commercial objectives have sometimes led to governance issues.

Tata Trusts has three nominees on the Tata Sons board. Reports have said that the board members have disagreed over issues such as board nominations, funding approvals and the public listing of Tata Sons. The group has not publicly commented on the discord.

The internal rifts threatened to distract the group while it was facing severe business headwinds including the revival of Air India, which it bought from the Indian government in 2022.

When the proposal for his extension was brought before the board in February, one board member did not support it, Chandrasekaran said in his statement without naming the person.

“In the absence of unanimous support, I chose to defer the decision,” he said, adding that there was no resolution even six months later.

“Tata Sons is a very large institution and there are many strategic projects that are under critical stages of execution. It is not only necessary to have a leader in place to lead the Group beyond Feb 2027, but also clarity on leadership is important for employees, investors, partners and other stakeholders,” he said.

Chandrasekaran was named the group’s chairman in 2017. He replaced the late Cyrus Mistry, whose abrupt removal from the post months earlier had triggered a bitter legal battle.

Before becoming chairman, Chandrasekaran was the CEO and managing director of the group’s high-profile global IT service provider, Tata Consultancy Services. He joined the group in 1987 – a 2017 press release announcing his appointment as chairman described him as a “Tata lifer”.

Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst, said that when a person with Chandrasekaran’s stature stepped down like this, it was inevitable that the markets would react negatively.

“However, they have six months to find a good successor,” he said, adding that he thought it likely that the next leader would be chosen from within the group.