When fear is widespread, valuations tend to compress. Strong companies with resilient business models, healthy balance sheets, and long-term growth prospects may be sold alongside weaker peers, not because their fundamentals have deteriorated, but because investors are reacting to macro uncertainty or short-term earnings pressure. The result is a broad-based discount offering a favorable risk-reward for those willing to look beyond the immediate gloom.

Templeton’s perspective also reflects the inherently cyclical nature of markets. Economic slowdowns, financial crises, and policy-tightening phases have repeatedly been followed by periods of recovery and expansion. History shows that markets often begin to rebound well before economic data improves or sentiment turns positive. By the time optimism returns and confidence is restored, a significant portion of the market rebound is often already behind investors.

Acting during periods of maximum pessimism, however, requires more than courage—it demands discipline and careful analysis. Not every falling stock is a bargain, and not every crisis leads to a swift recovery. Successfully applying Templeton’s philosophy involves distinguishing between temporary setbacks and permanent impairments. Investors must focus on balance sheet strength, cash flow sustainability, industry structure, and long-term demand drivers to ensure they are buying true value, not value traps.

The quote also highlights a behavioural edge. Most investors are psychologically wired to seek safety and validation from the crowd. Buying when others are fearful feels uncomfortable and often goes against prevailing narratives. Yet it is precisely this discomfort that creates opportunity. When pessimism is extreme, expectations are already very low, meaning even modest improvements in news flow or fundamentals can trigger sharp re-ratings in asset prices.

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In today’s fast-moving, headline-driven markets, pessimism can spread quickly through social media, 24-hour news cycles, and global risk-off events. This can amplify short-term volatility and deepen sell-offs, even when long-term business prospects remain intact. For long-term investors, these moments can provide rare opportunities to accumulate quality assets at attractive valuations.
Sir John Templeton’s wisdom serves as a reminder that successful investing often involves acting opposite to prevailing emotion. While it is never easy to buy amid fear and uncertainty, history shows that some of the most rewarding investments are made when pessimism is at its peak. For investors with patience, rigorous analysis, and a long-term perspective, moments of maximum pessimism can become the foundation for future returns.

Oil advanced from Friday’s close, with West Texas Intermediate trading near $64 a barrel, with no settlement on Monday because of a US holiday. Brent rose more than 1% on Monday to close below $69. President Donald Trump said he will be indirectly involved in the talks. Iran wants to make a deal, he said.

Asian stocks posted a modest gain on Tuesday as holiday-thinned trading kept volumes light, with investors looking ahead to a fresh batch of economic data later this week for direction.

Mainland China and Hong Kong are shut for Lunar New Year holidays and US markets will return Tuesday after observing the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday. The yen fluctuated.

The US rate path remains in focus following the slower-than-expected inflation print on Friday as traders fully priced a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June. Investors are also paying attention to the shifts in sentiment around artificial intelligence, which may reverberate far beyond the technology sector with the emergence of the so-called AI scare trade.

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“The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.
In the US on Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on the labor market and AI, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks on AI and the economy. Traders will also be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy.Cash trading in Treasuries resumed Tuesday after bonds rallied on Friday in reaction to the benign US inflation data.

Treasury two-year yields were little changed after closing at the lowest level since 2022 on Friday. That came as traders priced in higher chances the Fed will slash rates more than twice this year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year stood at 4.04%.

In Japan, the central bank governor said Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made no specific requests during a regular meeting to discuss the economy and swap general ideas.

Investors and economists are trying to gauge whether an emboldened Takaichi will try to slow down the central bank’s path of interest hikes to protect economic growth or if she will instead encourage the BOJ to act to help support the yen.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Deterra Royalties’ December 2025 Half Year Results. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to the first speaker today, Mr. Jason Neal, Interim Chief Executive Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Jason Neal
Interim MD, CEO & Director

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Deterra Royalties’ First Half 2026 Results Call. I’m Jason Neal, MD and CEO of Deterra, and I’m joined today by Jason Clifton, our Chief Financial Officer.

As you’re aware, I’ve been a long-standing Non-Executive Director of Deterra and has stepped into the MD and CEO role only on an interim basis as a bridge to the next leader of our company, for which we have an active search process underway. In this transitionary period, it’s been very much business as usual, and our team continues to advance various opportunities.

It is our pleasure to report a strong half, and without further delay, I’m going to hand the call to Jason Clifton to take you through the highlights and some important details. I will conclude the call before the Q&A section with some of my reflections on the half year and the strategic orientation of the company.

Jason Clifton
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone. If you move to Page 3, you’ll see we have delivered a record first half NPAT of $87 million and a first half dividend of $0.124 per share fully franked. This

After three years of subdued activity, the global private equity industry has finally regained its momentum. Driven by a surge in deal-making and increased investor confidence, firms are now actively pursuing opportunities across diverse sectors. This resurgence is fueled by favorable economic conditions, innovative market strategies, and a renewed focus on technology-driven investments.

Key takeaways

• Dealmaking roared back in 2025 with buyout deals over $500 million surging 44 percent to exceed $1 trillion, marking the highest year on record, but the fog has lifted to reveal a fundamentally more technical and demanding terrain.
• Private equity returns now lag significantly behind public markets, with top-quartile buyouts averaging just 8 percent IRR in 2025 compared to 18 percent for the S&P 500, forcing operational value creation to shift from marketing narrative to survival imperative.
• Scale and specialization are becoming non-negotiable as funds under $500 million shrink to 13 percent of fundraising, GP consolidation doubles to $34 billion, and alternative structures like semiliquid vehicles explode to $204 billion as liquidity pressures reshape the industry.

According to McKinsey & Company’s 2026 Global Private Markets Report released in February.While dealmaking returned with force in 2025, the improved visibility has revealed a fundamentally transformed and more demanding landscape for investors and operators alike.

Buyout and growth deals larger than $500 million surged 44 percent to over $1 trillion in value, eclipsing 2021’s total to become the highest year on record for deals of this size. Deal value across all buyout and growth sizes increased 17 percent, while PE-backed exits globally surged more than 40 percent, aided by a nearly 100 percent increase in exit deal volume via IPO.

Private Equity 2026 FAQ

“Megadeals” returned dramatically in 2025. The year witnessed not only the largest PE deal in history, the announced $55 billion take-private of Electronic Arts by a syndicate of firms, but also marked the third-highest year ever for take-private activity by either total deal count or value.

A More Technical, Demanding Terrain

Yet with improved visibility comes a sobering realization: shifts in deployment, returns, value creation, and traditional fundraising, previously considered episodic, are now structural features of a maturing industry.

“The landscape is now both more technical and more demanding, even for experienced drivers,” the McKinsey team wrote. “Success on the road ahead will depend less on speed than on having the right vehicle, fit for the changed terrain, properly equipped, and driven with discipline.”

For dealmakers, assets have never been more expensive. The median private equity purchase multiple increased from 11.3x EBITDA in 2024 to 11.8x in 2025. The backlog of PE-owned companies remains at historic highs, with more than 16,000 companies globally held for more than four years, equivalent to 52 percent of total buyout-backed inventory, the highest on record and ten percentage points higher than the past five-year average.

Holding periods remain well above historical levels, with the typical portfolio company now held for more than six and a half years. Meanwhile, more than 40 percent of dry powder available for deployment has been sitting idle for the past two years, 15 percentage points higher than the five-year average.

Returns Lag Public Markets

PE returns continue to trail active public markets. In 2025, top-quartile global buyout returns averaged 8 percent on a pooled IRR basis, less than half the returns generated by the S&P 500 at 18 percent and MSCI World at 22 percent. Older buyout vintages are dragging performance, with 2015-17 vintages generating roughly 2 percent IRRs, pulling average buyout returns from 2015 to 2025 down to about 6 percent.

Without the tailwinds of multiple expansion and cheap leverage, which accounted for 59 percent of returns between 2010 and 2022, operational value creation has shifted from marketing narrative to institutional imperative. “GPs are increasingly recognizing the importance of underwriting value creation improvements as core parts of their deal theses,” the report states.

Fundraising Becomes More Selective

Core closed-end fundraising has become more competitive, selective, and time-consuming. While North American fundraising increased 8 percent year-on-year to $432 billion, Asia-Pacific fundraising plummeted 49 percent to $49 billion. European fundraising declined 41 percent to $118 billion in 2025, though largely because major funds had closed their fundraising in 2023 and 2024.

Despite challenging conditions, LP confidence remains robust. In McKinsey’s survey of 300 global LPs conducted in January 2026, about 70 percent reported plans to maintain or increase their private equity allocations in 2026, recognizing that top-quartile buyout funds have historically beaten both the S&P 500 and MSCI World indexes over the last decade with 24 percent IRR versus 15 percent and 13 percent respectively.

Different Equipment for Changed Terrain

The report identifies five critical adaptations for success in this new environment. First, scale matters more than ever. Funds raising less than $500 million now account for just 13 percent of fundraising compared with 17 percent five years ago, while funds larger than $5 billion claim significantly larger share. First-time funds have declined to their lowest level in a decade, while strategic M&A activity among the 100 largest GPs nearly doubled from $18 billion in 2024 to more than $34 billion in 2025.

Second, complexity offers opportunity. The 43 percent increase in take-private value globally, with North American take-privates rising 72 percent, reflects recognition that discounted public assets may offer more alpha than private ones. Specialist funds focusing on specific sectors appear to be outperforming generalist peers.

Third, operational value creation is now essential alpha generation. With higher purchase multiples, increased macroeconomic uncertainty, and greater equity contributions coupled with elevated interest rates, GPs must build capabilities to capture value creation potential quickly and consistently.

Fourth, AI is emerging as a transformative force. While only 6 percent of GPs currently see AI delivering high impact in their operations and investment processes, 70 percent expect high impact within three to five years. The technology is already sharpening underwriting, accelerating operational improvements, and enabling faster decision-making across the investment life cycle.

Fifth, alternative fund structures are going mainstream. US semiliquid private equity vehicles have more than doubled since 2023 to $204 billion in 2025, requiring new distribution channels, fund vehicles, marketing competencies, and heightened liquidity and risk management capabilities.

Liquidity Pressures Reshape Industry

Liquidity constraints continue reshaping private equity. Distributions to paid-in capital is now tied with multiple of invested capital as the second-most-important metric shaping LP allocation decisions. DPI as a share of total PE assets under management was just 6 percent in the 12-month period ended June 2025, compared with the 2015-19 average of 16 percent. Five-year rolling DPI hit its lowest recorded level at about 10 percent in June 2025.

This liquidity crunch drove explosive growth in PE secondaries, with traded value increasing 48 percent in 2025 and fundraising up 5 percent, as LPs seek to realize meaningful returns.

Implications for the Road Ahead

The report’s stark conclusion: private equity is increasingly less about timing the next cycle and more about clarity of position. GPs must determine whether their vehicle is built for terrain where alpha is made, purchase-price discipline is critical, leadership quality is demanded, and operational resilience is nonnegotiable.

“LPs face a sharper sorting question: Which managers are genuinely equipped to navigate these conditions, and which are still driving with maps designed for smoother roads?” the report asks. “How these questions are answered will increasingly determine which vehicles pull ahead and which struggle to stay on the road.”

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