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Iran said on Sunday that a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages but ‌reiterated that the waterway ⁠would ⁠only reopen once the United States met other conditions.

Brent crude added 0.9% to $84.32 a barrel as shipping through the vital waterway remained at a trickle, while U.S. crude rose 0.7% to $78.74 a barrel.

The latest revival in fuel costs raises the stakes for the U.S. July consumer price report due on Wednesday where analysts look for a rise of 0.1% in the headline and 0.2% for the core.

Any upside surprise could rekindle speculation of a hike from the Federal Reserve next month.

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Read more: FPIs turn buyers in IT stocks for first time in 2026, invest Rs 3,358 crore in July
“Our forecast for core CPI of 0.22% is ​probably not quite firm enough to prompt a hike from the Fed at ⁠the September meeting, though ‌repeated prints closer to 0.3% could do it,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at ​JPMorgan.”One thing we ​are watching for is any rebound in core goods prices after a two-month stretch in which ⁠they fell.”

The futures market has scaled back the chance of a September move ​to around 44%, from 67% a week ago.

The pullback in rate risk helped ​Treasuries rally on Friday and saw Wall Street close at record highs. Japan’s Nikkei followed that lead and rose 0.6% on Monday, while South Korea added 0.5%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.3%.

DOUBLE-DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both dipped 0.1%, while FTSE futures fell 0.4%.

S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures were little changed having climbed 5% last week amid a slew of upbeat earnings reports.

Analysts at BofA noted that with nearly ‌90% of S&P 500 results in, earnings per share were up 30% on the year after excluding investment gains at Alphabet and Amazon. A 76% EPS beat rate matched the strongest level since ​2021.

“AI remains the stand ​out, with median EPS growth ⁠of 28% versus 12% for non-AI related stocks, though consensus expects AI to slow to 16% next quarter,” they said in a note.

Earnings are lighter this week but include semiconductor company Applied Materials, networking equipment maker Cisco and cloud infrastructure technology ​company CoreWeave.

In bond markets, yields on 10-year Treasuries were a shade higher at 4.673% with the market bracing for $125 billion in new issuance this week.

The drop in yields and general improvement in risk had pulled the U.S. dollar broadly lower, with the euro just off a seven-week top at $1.1557.

The dollar was flat on the yen at 157.85, with investors still wary of intervention should they push the yen down too far.

In commodity markets, the drop in yields helped non-interest-paying gold hold at $4,342 an ounce, having climbed more than 7% last week.

Publicly listed Muthoot Microfin and Satin Creditcare Network — the third and fourth in ranking in terms of assets under management — have both raised growth projections by around 500 basis points, with the microfinance market getting more consolidated in favour of large non-banking financial companies-microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFIs).

“Since banks including small finance banks are downsizing their microfinance portfolio, we are witnessing a higher demand,” Satin Creditcare Network chairman HP Singh said.

Cumulative microfinance portfolio of private banks shrank about 12% in the first quarter of the fiscal to Rs 79023 crore at the end of June from Rs 89548 crore three months prior, Equifax India data showed. The cumulative microfinance portfolio of small finance banks also contracted to Rs 48759 crore from Rs 50725 crore over the same period.

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Meanwhile, several smaller NBFC-MFIs have either stopped or scaled down operation in the absence of institutional support, people aware said.
Muthoot has revised the advance growth guidance to 20% from a previous projection of 12-15% while Satin revised it to 20-25% from 15-20% earlier. The country’s largest NBFC-MFI CreditAccess Grameen is also chasing a 20-25% growth.
“The smaller MFIs are shrinking in the absence of liberal bank funding which is an essential raw material. This gap can be filled by larger, well capitalised firms,” Muthoot Microfin chief executive officer Sadaf Sayeed said.
The renewed stability in the microfinance sector also brings comfort to the bigger MFIs. The sector has shown sequential improvement in asset quality for the past few quarters with the implementation of stricter lending guardrails.

Till December last year, the sector’s gross portfolio continued to shrink from the record peak of Rs 4.43 lakh crore seen as on end-March 2024 as lenders followed risk-off strategy as overleveraged borrowers defaulted en masse. The March quarter saw a rebound but the concerns over irregular rainfall amid a traditionally weak first quarter led to a dip again overall.

CreditAccess Grameen managing director Ganesh Narayanan said that the firm may likely to remain within the projected growth range with respect to growth, while expecting higher growth in the typically business third and fourth quarter.

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