Global markets are once again displaying a remarkable ability to look beyond geopolitical uncertainty. Even as tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel continue to dominate headlines, investor sentiment across Wall Street and parts of Asia has turned sharply positive, supported by strong corporate earnings and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence-driven growth.

Speaking to ET Now, market expert Seth R Freeman from GlassRatner Advisory said the geopolitical situation remains fluid and difficult to predict, especially after the United States crossed the 60-day timeline that would ordinarily require congressional approval for military action.

“Well, we have passed the 60-day deadline that the president needed to go to Congress and get a declaration of war. So technically, the war has stopped — at least that is the message coming out of Washington,” Freeman said.

He added that the current environment remains a standoff, with Iran continuing to hold significant leverage because of its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

“It is extremely hard to answer how long this is going to take,” Freeman noted. “The problem here is that we have trained the Iranian regime to believe it has a lot of leverage with the Strait of Hormuz.”

No Clear Timeline for Resolution
While reports from Axios suggested that the United States and Iran may be nearing some form of diplomatic understanding, conflicting signals from former US President Donald Trump have kept uncertainty alive in the market.
Freeman pointed out that there is currently no firm deadline for negotiations to conclude.“Trump has now set no specific deadline,” he said. “There is a lot of reporting that there is an artificial timeline because he is planning to meet President Xi of China very soon, and I am sure he would like to avoid discussing this issue during that meeting.”

According to Freeman, the conflict has already complicated diplomatic schedules, with planned engagements reportedly delayed because of the outbreak of hostilities. He also questioned the effectiveness of efforts aimed at reducing Iran’s oil revenues through restrictions and shipping-related pressure tactics.

“This idea of blockading ships and trying to reduce Iran’s oil revenue does not seem to be working,” he said.

Markets Betting on Stability
Despite persistent geopolitical risks and concerns over oil prices, equity markets have shown surprising resilience. Investors appear increasingly confident that the situation may not escalate into a prolonged disruption severe enough to derail economic growth or corporate profitability.

Freeman observed that market participants are focusing more on earnings momentum than on geopolitical headlines.

“Who would imagine that with all of this volatility — war, oil concerns, and expectations of higher inflation — there is still significant confidence in future earnings?” he said.

He pointed to strong gains in US benchmark indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing to advance on optimism surrounding technology and AI-linked companies.

“At the same time, though, consumer sentiment is at an all-time low,” Freeman added. “So, it is rather confusing in terms of reading the tea leaves.”

The divergence between buoyant stock markets and weak consumer confidence highlights the unusual structure of the current rally. Institutional investors, pension funds, and retirement-linked investments continue to support index performance, even as broader economic concerns linger beneath the surface.

Earnings Season Delivers Positive Surprise
Corporate earnings have played a major role in sustaining the rally. Large financial institutions have posted particularly strong numbers, benefiting from elevated market volatility and higher trading activity.

“The big financial services companies and the big banks have done fabulously because they make money on trading volume,” Freeman explained. “It really does not matter whether prices are going up or down as long as there is a lot of buying and selling.”

Beyond financials, artificial intelligence remains one of the biggest market drivers, with technology and hardware companies continuing to attract investor attention. However, Freeman also noted that gains are no longer limited to just a handful of AI-focused names.

“Some of the older, more mainstream companies in the Dow also performed quite well,” he said. “So, it seems to be broad-based.”

Still, not every sector is participating equally in the rally. Healthcare stocks, according to Freeman, continue to face pressure, while automobile companies could struggle if elevated crude oil prices persist for an extended period.

“I am not sure what is going to happen with automobiles if we continue to have sustained high oil prices,” he said.

As geopolitical negotiations continue in the background, financial markets appear determined to focus on earnings growth and liquidity. Whether that optimism proves durable may ultimately depend on how quickly diplomacy catches up with investor expectations.

So it appears that America and Iran are moving closer on a proposal to restart peace talks. Yet it seems so indirect, like a carom shot in pool.

Who can be sure? As I read it, from the media reports, principally Axios and the Wall Street Journal, America and Iran are working on a one-page framework to restart negotiations.

So there has to be agreement on the one-pager, and if there is agreement, then actual negotiations might begin next week at Islamabad or Geneva, Switzerland.

So if I get this even remotely right, and I don’t have much direct information, we are negotiating in order to begin negotiating. Well, okay.

And if the negotiations don’t work out you can be sure that all bombing hell will descend on Iran — much worse than anything they’ve seen before.

As the president said on this whole thing this afternoon: “We’re in good shape. And, now we’re doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don’t do that, we’ll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.”

Meanwhile, Project Freedom has been paused which frankly disappoints me because I had hoped our great United States Navy would have been able to ramp up 50 to 100 or more commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

And if there’s a 30-day period of negotiations, the United States Navy’s blockade would gradually be lifted. This too is disappointing.

At this point, though, the blockade is very much still in place. So again, we’ll wait to see more information. Another piece to this Iran story is President Trump’s trip to Communist China. Is this part of the negotiation process?

My hope has always been that America would exert complete control over the whole Arabian Gulf, including the Hormuz Strait for some considerable period of time.

Now that may still happen. And of course our military forces are not going any place. And when Mr. Trump says it’s very possible a deal can be reached, then I’ll go along with that. I’ve supported him the whole time. I know he’s not going to make a bad deal.

I know he’ll insist on the key red lines of stopping Iranian enrichment of uranium. And transferring enriched uranium from Iran to the United States. And I believe the president would never allow Iran to have control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s more, I’m certain he will insist that Iran stop its state-sponsored terrorism, and that war against Israel and for that matter its war against the United States.

Yet there is a fear among our Gulf allies, that there’s too much uncertainty and the American team.

And so it would seem, regrettably, that there will be no major regime change in Iran. Which of course once again raises the issue of verification and trust.

Iran has never allowed either. And right now that may be the toughest part of this whole story.

Q1: 2026-05-04 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.77 misses by $0.09

 | Revenue of $115.13M (28.93% Y/Y) beats by $9.78M

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Under the proposal, public companies would have the option to file reports semiannually, rather than on a quarterly basis

Polycab India shares surged 6% to Rs 8,938.70 on BSE on Thursday morning after the wires and cables maker delivered a quarter that beat street estimates on nearly every metric, prompting a flurry of target price upgrades from brokerages, with Citi setting the highest bar at Rs 10,500.

The rally follows Polycab’s Q4 consolidated revenue rising 27% year-on-year (YoY), while EBITDA grew 13% YoY. The numbers impressed analysts as they came despite geopolitical disruptions, a March demand slowdown, and channel destocking amid raw material volatility.

Citi, the most bullish on the Street, raised its target price from Rs 9,500 to Rs 10,500 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing execution quality as the key differentiator. “Market share gains reflect execution and scale advantage,” the brokerage said, adding that Polycab passed on the entire impact of raw material costs by the first fortnight of January, with no inventory gains due to hedging.

Polycab’s share of the organised cables and wires market has risen to 30–31%, marking a gain of 300–400 basis points year-on-year, a trend Jefferies highlighted while naming the company its top pick. “Organised market share rose to 30–31%, up 400 bps YoY, as C&W volume grew 18% in FY26,” Jefferies said, raising its target price to Rs 9,770 from Rs 8,950 and projecting a FY26–29 EPS CAGR of 21%. The brokerage described the stock as “a play on power and housing.”

Motilal Oswal raised its target price to Rs 9,800 from Rs 9,350, estimating revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of 19% and PAT growth of around 18% over FY26-28. The brokerage expects operating margins to remain in the 13.5-14% range. It also estimates the company’s net cash balance will rise to Rs 47.8 billion by FY28 from Rs 41.5 billion in FY26, underscoring the financial strength supporting the growth story.

Nuvama raised FY27/28 EPS estimates by 3-5% to reflect the beat, projecting revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 18%, 17%, and 17%, respectively, over FY26-29. The brokerage lifted its target to Rs 9,740 from Rs 9,420, valuing the stock at 40x March 2028 estimated EPS. At the current market price, Polycab trades at 34.5x FY28 estimated EPS.
JM Financial, raising its target to Rs 9,700 from Rs 9,200 at 42x March 2028 EPS, flagged cables and wires capacity utilisation at mid-70s as providing reasonable certainty of meeting any unanticipated demand pickup, effectively a buffer the market is not fully pricing in.Beyond cables and wires, the FMEG segment is emerging as a meaningful second engine. Elara Capital, which maintained Accumulate with a target of Rs 8,920, noted that FMEG surged 39% YoY, driven by solar products, and turned EBIT positive in FY26 for the first time. The segment’s turnaround removes a long-standing drag on overall profitability.

Looking further out, Citi flagged that Polycab’s extra-high voltage capacity is set to be commissioned by year-end, with revenue expected to start flowing in FY28, a potential re-rating catalyst that the current target prices may not fully capture.

The one note of caution across brokerages is margin pressure from a shift in sales mix toward lower-margin exports and higher institutional sales, which clipped EBITDA growth relative to revenue.

Elara specifically highlighted this, even as it maintained a positive view on the stock’s longer-term prospects.

With an aggressive Rs 60-80 billion capex pipeline over five years, a dominant and still-growing market share position, and the FMEG business finally in the black, Polycab is making a case that Thursday’s 6% move may be the beginning of a longer re-rating and not the end of it.