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Chris Wood’s big warning: The specific risk that will finally trigger the end of AI trade

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Chris Wood’s big warning: The specific risk that will finally trigger the end of AI trade
Jefferies’ Global Head of Equity Strategy Chris Wood is warning that the AI trade will eventually be broken not by a sudden collapse in demand for chips, but by a market-wide realisation that hyperscalers and leading AI labs cannot earn an adequate return on the vast capex they are undertaking. He sees concerns over “malinvestment” as the specific risk that will finally trigger the end, or at least a painful pause, in the AI boom.

In his latest newsletter Greed & Fear, Wood describes the ongoing AI build‑out as “the most dramatic capex cycle” he has ever seen, driven by hyperscalers and foundries racing to ramp data‑centre and compute capacity. TSMC, for instance, has lifted its capex guidance for 2026 to about US$56 billion from US$41 billion last year, with Jefferies’ Taiwan partner Fubon Research now projecting US$65–70 billion of capex in 2027.

This surge in investment is already translating into boom‑like macro conditions in Taiwan, with real GDP growth hitting 14.55% year‑on‑year in 1Q26 and export orders up 53.4% year‑on‑year in the three months to May. Wood notes that AI‑related demand now accounts for an estimated 31% of TSMC’s revenues in 2026, underscoring just how concentrated the cycle has become in AI infrastructure.

Also Read | 3 AI stocks outweigh all of India: Why this concentration is sounding EM alarm bells

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Jevons Paradox and “Picks and Shovels” Winners

Wood frames the AI demand story through the lens of Jevons Paradox: as token costs fall and efficiency improves, total compute consumption rises instead of falling. “The increased demand triggered by cheaper prices should be good for the picks and shovels plays,” he writes, arguing that DRAM and memory suppliers are the primary equity beneficiaries three and a half years into the AI capex arms race.

He cites Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s comment that “memory has evolved from a peripheral component into the core engine driving productivity in the AI era,” adding that the big three DRAM makers now have sufficient leverage to lock in long‑term sales agreements. Micron has already signed 16 strategic customer agreements covering roughly 20% of its DRAM volume and a third of its NAND volume, typically with five‑year tenors — evidence, in Wood’s view, of structural change in the industry.

The Commoditisation of AI Models

A key contextual risk is the rapid commoditisation of large language models, particularly in the consumer and, increasingly, corporate markets. Wood highlights the launch of GLM‑5.2 by Hong Kong‑listed Z.ai, formerly Zhipu AI, noting that informed sources describe the new model as “almost equal to Anthropic” for corporate use at just one quarter of the cost per token.
This comes against a backdrop of a backlash against “tokenmaxxing” and explosive growth in cheaper Chinese models on platforms such as OpenRouter. In the week ended 21 June, top Chinese AI models processed 21.37 trillion tokens on OpenRouter, up from 4.37 trillion in late April, versus 5.76 trillion tokens for the top US models. That shift in volume, he argues, is already signalling a commoditised landscape and mounting pressure on the economics of premium Western AI providers.

Malinvestment in AI

Wood is explicit that the key vulnerability in the AI trade is not a classic semiconductor oversupply shock but the eventual recognition that the hyperscalers and leading AI labs will fail to earn a satisfactory return on their investment. “GREED & fear is personally convinced that concerns about malinvestment will be the most likely trigger for an end to the AI trade, or at least for a protracted pause to refresh,” he writes.
The danger, in his view, lies in circular funding arrangements and aggressive capacity expansion built on optimistic monetisation assumptions. He points to structures such as Nvidia financing OpenAI so that OpenAI can in turn buy more Nvidia chips — a feedback loop that works as long as investors are willing to bankroll the ecosystem but could unwind sharply once doubts over long‑term returns take hold.

Why Traditional Supply‑Side Risks Are Secondary

Historically, semiconductor cycles have tended to end with abrupt increases in supply and inventory gluts. Wood believes the current cycle is different. “The key point to note for now is that this is the way the cycle is most likely to end rather than because of a sudden increase in supply, as has traditionally been the case in semiconductors,” he argues, emphasising that DRAM makers now command far greater pricing power.

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The dominant three DRAM producers have been able to negotiate multi‑year strategic customer agreements, and Wood relays market chatter that Korean memory makers are already regretting locking in long‑term terms because they expect chip prices to rise further. In such a structurally tight industry, the more plausible end‑of‑cycle trigger is not oversupply but investor capitulation over capital discipline and earnings visibility in the AI stack above memory.

Despite these structural concerns, Wood emphasises that there is “zero sign of AI capex slowing” yet. He links ongoing spending to US banking deregulation under the Trump administration, citing Alvarez & Marsal’s estimate that recent regulatory changes will unlock US$2.5 trillion in additional lending capacity across the US banking system, including US$1.1 trillion unlocked in the last two quarters.

Portfolio Implications For Wood

Importantly, Wood is not calling for an immediate collapse in AI‑linked equities; instead, he is re‑positioning towards hardware and memory names that he believes will remain long‑term beneficiaries even if the AI trade endgame is defined by capital‑return disappointments higher up the stack.

He is lifting exposure to tech hardware across GREED & fear’s model portfolios, adding SK Hynix and Kioxia with initial 4% weightings in the global long‑only book and increasing the allocation to Samsung Electronics. Alphabet and Alibaba are being removed from the global portfolio, reflecting a deliberate tilt away from big‑cap platform plays towards “picks and shovels” beneficiaries of the AI capex cycle.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Stephen A. Smith Says Pat Riley Wouldn’t Say No to LeBron Returning to the Miami

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LeBron James

The Miami Heat made one of the offseason’s biggest splashes by trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo last week, and according to ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, the team may not be finished chasing star power just yet.

Appearing on “First Take,” Smith floated the idea of LeBron James returning to Miami as an unrestricted free agent this summer, suggesting Heat president Pat Riley would be receptive if the four-time champion ever picked up the phone. “If he called Pat Riley, and said ‘listen, I want to come back and join Giannis and Bam,’ you think Riley will tell him no? He ain’t gonna tell him no,” Smith said.

A roster already reshaped by the Giannis trade

Smith’s comments come on the heels of Miami’s blockbuster acquisition of Antetokounmpo, ending a year-long saga over the two-time MVP’s future in Milwaukee. The Heat now boast a frontcourt anchored by Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, his former Milwaukee teammate, along with forward Bobby Portis — but the roster remains thin beyond that trio as the front office looks to fill out the rest of the depth chart.

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James, 41, is set to become an unrestricted free agent once the negotiating period opens, having just completed the second year of his two-year, $101.36 million contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. He made history during the 2025-26 season by becoming the first NBA player to suit up for a 24th season, and he continued to produce at a high level even in a diminished role, averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game while shooting 51.5% from the field.

Growing buzz beyond just one analyst

Smith is far from the only voice connecting James to a possible Miami reunion. Mario Chalmers, a two-time champion alongside James during his first stint with the Heat, addressed the speculation directly during an appearance on WQAM radio, where he was asked what move team president Pat Riley might pursue next. “I can see him [LeBron James] coming back,” Chalmers said. “It’ll definitely be a good opportunity because of Giannis and Bam.”

Chalmers went further, suggesting the move could also benefit James’ son, Bronny, who currently plays for the Lakers. “You could actually get Bronny some real minutes at PG and keep developing him and let him learn from other guys, so I think it’s a great move,” Chalmers said.

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ESPN NBA insider Brian Windhorst also stoked the conversation, telling “The Press Box” podcast that James holds the Heat organization and Riley in high regard, adding that he believes James “might feel somewhat the same” about a potential reunion as Riley reportedly does about welcoming him back.

The financial reality facing Miami

Despite the growing chatter, the practical obstacles to a James-Heat reunion remain significant. Miami is hard-capped at the first apron limit of approximately $209 million following the Antetokounmpo trade. With Antetokounmpo’s deal carrying a cap hit of roughly $58.4 million, the Heat have just $18.1 million in space remaining to fill four open roster spots — a figure that falls well short of what James currently earns.

According to Miami Herald columnist Barry Jackson, the Heat’s best avenue to even attempt a pursuit would be the full mid-level exception. “The Heat could try to lure impending free agent LeBron James with its full midlevel exception, but a James return is considered a long shot — though nothing can be ruled out,” Jackson wrote. Any such offer would represent a dramatic pay cut from the roughly $50 million annual salary James commanded on his most recent Lakers contract.

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A history that makes the fit resonate

If James were to entertain a move, the basketball logic behind pairing him with Antetokounmpo and Adebayo carries real appeal. James spent four seasons with the Heat from 2010 to 2014, forming a “Big Three” with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh that won back-to-back championships and reached the NBA Finals in all four of his seasons in Miami. A similar arrangement now, with Giannis serving as the primary paint presence and transition threat, Adebayo anchoring the defense as a secondary scorer and playmaker, and James operating as a facilitator picking his spots offensively, would give head coach Erik Spoelstra a frontcourt trio capable of switching matchups and initiating offense from multiple positions.

Riley’s own past comments add fuel to the speculation

Riley himself has previously left the door open to a reunion, even before this latest wave of speculation. According to commentary circulating widely on social media this week, Riley once said of James, “I wish him nothing but the best, and if he ever wanted to come back, then I’ll put a new shiny key under that mat” — a remark that has resurfaced repeatedly as fans and analysts speculate about a possible homecoming.

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Where things stand with the Lakers

Complicating matters further, James’ standing with his current team has reportedly grown uncertain. According to reporting connected to Klutch Sports, James’ representation, there is growing belief around the league that he could ultimately leave the Lakers rather than re-sign, even as Los Angeles remains technically capable of offering him a deal worth up to three years and $182 million. One Heat-focused outlet reported this week that Los Angeles made an early check-in call to James in free agency but had not followed up with a formal offer, a detail that has only added to speculation about where he might land.

A long shot, but not dismissed outright

For now, most reporting on the situation continues to characterize a Heat reunion as unlikely given the financial mismatch between James’ market value and Miami’s limited cap flexibility. Still, with James’ future in Los Angeles less certain than expected at this stage of the offseason, and with insiders, former teammates and media personalities alike continuing to raise the possibility, the idea of James completing his career back where he won two of his four championships has taken on more life than many around the league initially anticipated. Whether it ultimately materializes will likely become clearer once free agency negotiations formally begin and James makes a decision about both his next team and whether he intends to play a 25th NBA season at all.

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The High-Stakes Push to Fix the U.S. Retirement System

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“USA250: The Story of the World’s Greatest Economy” is a yearlong WSJ series examining America’s first 250 years. Read more about it from Editor in Chief Emma Tucker.

The warning from educators, economists and think tanks is loud, clear and persistent: The nation’s retirement system is in need of repair. Failing to do so could mean that tens of millions of Americans in the 2050s and beyond will enter later life with little, if any, financial security.

The good news: People appear to be listening.

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“I’m excited about the progress we’re seeing,” says Angela Antonelli, executive director of the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives at the McCourt School of Public Policy. In the past, she notes, decades could pass without significant retirement-system overhauls. Now, incremental gains in helping workers build savings and prepare for later life are evident in both the public and private sectors.

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