The dollar remained under pressure after weak US economic data reduced bets for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

A Bloomberg gauge of the currency’s strength slipped 0.1%, hovering around levels last seen in May. The dollar was weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers after Friday data showed US retail sales fell in July by the most in more than a year as consumers pulled back on purchases.

Swaps traders see around a one-in-four chance that the Fed will raise interest rates next month. That’s down from a 50% chance only a week ago. Treasuries rose across the curve. The yield on the rate-sensitive 2-year fell two basis points to 4.15%, while that on the benchmark 10-year eased one basis point to 4.68%.

Read more | Nifty takes a breather as bulls and bears watch the next move: Analysts

Elsewhere, oil erased earlier gains as traders looked for the next catalyst to set direction, with renewed Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the prospect of fresh US sanctions on Iran adding to geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude traded around $88.55 a barrel, having earlier climbed to almost $89. Asian stocks were little changed, with South Korea out for a holiday.Monday’s cautious moves came as investors watched for efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which may weigh on oil after it jumped almost 6% last week. With stocks near record highs on a revival in the artificial intelligence trade, attention remained on the Middle East for the next market catalyst after the weak US consumer data tempered optimism after back-to-back benign inflation readings.
“The most significant headwind for the market currently remains geopolitical uncertainty, which continues to weigh on market sentiment here and there – although the relative lack of military activity in the Middle East has lowered volatility at the margins,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com.
In geopolitical news, Israel said it killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander, in strikes on southern Lebanon, one of the deadliest days of fighting in months.

The fighting on the periphery of the Iran war may further complicate what appears to be deadlocked negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The sides are poised to arrive at the formal end of their own ceasefire agreement with no apparent path forward on the Strait of Hormuz and with the US readying an “economic isolation” plan.

In other corners of the market, futures contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Index advanced, after the underlying gauges slipped Friday on signs of a slowdown in US consumer spending.

Gold inched up 0.4% to about $4,390 an ounce.

Elsewhere, the yen traded stronger as Japan’s economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June as capital spending continued to slump.

On Friday, US equities slipped from a record as consumer sentiment slid more than expected and retail sales dropped the most in more than a year.

Focus will also be on the sale of 20-year US government bonds this week as it tests investor appetite for long-term debt following a few record-breaking auctions.

A slew of China data, including retail sales and industrial production, will be in focus Monday. Economists expect consumer spending to have picked up slightly in July, while factory output may have slowed, according to Bloomberg surveys.

China’s “macro momentum continues to deteriorate” as credit growth has slowed and inflation remains weak, Wee Khoon Chong, a strategist at BNY wrote in a note to clients. “July activity data are likely to reinforce the slowdown, with retail sales and high-tech investment the key areas to watch for resilience.”

After racing ahead by more than 1,000 points, Nifty has hit a pause. The index is now testing key support and resistance levels, with experts split between buying dips and selling rallies as traders look for the next decisive move.

SOMIL MEHTA

HEAD OF RETAIL RESEARCH, MIRAE ASSET SHAREKHAN

Trading Strategy
The Nifty rally is now cooling off after that sharp run, which is fairly normal after a move of that size. The index is still holding above its key daily moving averages — the 20DMA at 24,323 and the 40DEMA at 24,227. Traders can buy on dips between 24,227 and 25,190, with a stop loss of 24,050 on a closing basis, for a target of 24,774–25,000.

Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty has held up much better and has barely corrected in the last few sessions. For fresh long positions, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break above the swing high of 57,885. Traders can buy above 57,885, with a stop loss at 57,158 on a closing basis, for a target of 57,885–58,700.
Read more | Equity investments should give about 15% annual returns over next 5 years: Raamdeo Agrawal

TOP STOCK PICKS
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers: Buy at CMP Rs 2,618.6 | Target Rs 2,740–2,800 | Stop loss Rs 2,535

The stock bottomed at Rs 2,471, broke its falling trendline, and turned bullish. With Rs 2,670 as key resistance, a decisive breakout above this level could confirm trend reversal and trigger the next rally higher.

Supreme Industries: Buy at CMP Rs 3,558.9 | Target Rs 3,685–3,750 | Stop loss Rs 3,425

The stock has given a breakout from an inverse head-andshoulders pattern, indicating a positive shift in trend. It is also trading above its key daily moving averages, while the daily momentum indicator has entered bullish mode after a positive crossover in Friday’s session.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
RESEARCH ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Trading Strategy
Buying interest for Nifty is emerging around 24,300, but the recovery lacks strong follow-through. RSI at 52.21, below its average of 57.97, confirms moderating momentum without entering oversold territory.

Maintain a sell-on-rise approach below 24,500. Fresh shorts can be considered on a sustained break below 24,300, targeting
24,190–24,050, with a stop-loss above 24,400.

For longs, wait for a decisive reclaim of 24,500, which can trigger a move towards 24,600–24,700.

TOP STOCK PICKS
Ramco Industries: Buy | CMP Rs 356 | Target Rs 386 | Stop loss Rs 341

The stock’s breakout above multi-year resistance, with compressed volatility, rising volumes and strong moving averages, signals fresh price-discovery potential and a likely move towards new highs.

Shadowfax Technologies:
Buy | CMP Rs 251 | Target Rs 277 | Stop loss Rs 238

The stock shows bullish continuation, recovering from Rs 205–215, consolidating near Rs 250–255, holding above the rising 10-DEMA and 20-DEMA, with positive moving-average alignment supporting the trend.

HITESH RATHI
TECHNICAL ANALYST, ANGEL ONE

Trading Strategy
Nifty faced rejection at 24,750–24,800, confirming strong resistance. A breakout above 24,800–24,850 is needed to negate
weakness. Until then, rallies towards 24,500 favour sell-on-rise trades, with stop loss at 24,590 and target near 24,340, reflecting capped upside.

TOP STOCK PICKS
Indus Towers: Buy at Rs 380–382 | Target Rs 400–407 | Stop loss Rs 366

The stock holds strong support at Rs 370–365, with a W-pattern breakout above Rs 380 and bullish RSI crossover, signalling
strengthening momentum, emerging trend reversal, and buyers gradually gaining control.

Asahi India Glass: Buy at Rs 930–939 | Target Rs 990–1,010 | Stop loss Rs 885
The stock broke out above Rs 930 after support at its 20-brick moving average, confirmed by triple-top bullish breakout and
invalidation of bearish pole, signalling buyers’ control and potential for higher levels ahead.

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