Business
ETMarkets PMS Talk | Gold allocation and dynamic hedging helped QAW beat Nifty in January selloff: Rishabh Nahar of Qode Advisors
In this edition of ETMarkets PMS Talk, Rishabh Nahar, Partner and Fund Manager at Qode Advisors, explains how a higher allocation to gold and a dynamically managed derivative hedge helped cushion downside risk and generate alpha.
He also shares insights into the strategy’s asset allocation framework, risk-adjusted return focus, and why an “all weather” approach may be particularly relevant in today’s uncertain macro environment. Edited Excerpts –
Q) QAW delivered nearly 7% return in January 2026 versus a 3% decline in the Nifty50. What led to the outperformance?
A) The outperformance in January was primarily driven by two factors: our higher allocation to gold and the effective deployment of dynamic derivative hedges.
Gold acted as a strong diversifier during the equity drawdown, while our hedging framework protected the equity portion of the portfolio during market weakness.
The combination of asset diversification and tactical hedging enabled QAW to deliver positive returns despite a challenging equity environment.
Q) QAW positions itself as a diversified, low-volatility strategy with a derivative hedge. How is the hedge structured and how dynamic is it across cycles?
A) The derivative hedge is designed to protect the equity component of the portfolio during medium- to long-term downtrends. It is not static – it adjusts dynamically based on market direction and trend signals.
When markets exhibit sustained weakness, hedges are activated to reduce downside risk. Conversely, during strong uptrends, hedges are scaled down or removed to avoid unnecessary cost drag.
This dynamic structure allows us to balance protection and participation efficiently across market cycles.
Q) How do you determine asset allocation between equity, gold, and cash?
A) The asset allocation framework is the result of rigorous testing and correlation analysis across asset classes. Gold and equities historically exhibit complementary behavior, especially during periods of stress.
Within equities, we blend momentum and low-volatility strategies, which themselves tend to complement each other across market regimes.
While the core allocation is strategic and not frequently altered, we conduct regular portfolio reviews and may make measured adjustments based on prevailing market conditions and macro positioning.
Q) Since inception in November 2024, what has been the biggest contributor to alpha – asset allocation, stock selection, or derivatives?
A) The largest contributor to alpha so far has been asset allocation – particularly our higher allocation to gold – along with the timely and effective execution of our derivative hedges.
The interplay between diversified asset allocation and well-calibrated hedging has been instrumental in generating excess returns.
Q) The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.59 versus 0.03 for the benchmark. How sustainable is this risk-adjusted outperformance?
A) The portfolio is specifically designed to optimize risk-adjusted returns rather than maximize raw returns. A higher Sharpe ratio is a structural objective of the strategy.
By combining uncorrelated assets and disciplined hedging, we aim to deliver stable and consistent performance across market cycles. While short-term metrics can fluctuate, the design philosophy of the portfolio supports sustainable risk-adjusted outperformance over the long term.
Q) With standard deviation slightly higher than the Nifty (13.42% vs 12.95%), how do you define “low volatility” in this context?
A) While our standard deviation has been comparable to the Nifty over the past year and since inception, an also meaningful measure is drawdown.
QAW has experienced significantly lower maximum drawdowns compared to the Nifty 50 during the same period. Over longer time frames, we expect volatility to moderate further.
The strategy’s objective is not only to minimize short-term fluctuations, but also to reduce downside severity and improve return consistency over time.
Q) How actively do you rebalance between equity and gold based on macro signals?
A) The portfolio undergoes a structured rebalance annually to maintain strategic alignment. However, we continuously monitor macroeconomic signals and market conditions.
If warranted, we may make measured tactical adjustments during the year, though changes are incremental rather than aggressive. The framework prioritizes stability while remaining responsive to evolving macro trends.
Q) In the current macro environment, what risks justify an “all weather” approach?
A) The current environment is characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, shifting interest rate cycles, and periodic equity volatility.
An “All Weather” approach is designed to navigate such uncertainties without requiring precise market timing.
While the strategy may not capture the full upside during strong equity bull runs due to diversification into gold and hedges, it aims to deliver smoother and more consistent returns across cycles – which is particularly valuable in uncertain macro conditions.
Q) Who is the ideal investor for QAW?
A) QAW is suitable for investors seeking stability, consistency, and lower drawdowns in their portfolios.
It can serve equity-heavy HNIs looking to smooth overall portfolio volatility, as well as conservative investors who want equity participation with downside protection.
In fact, most diversified portfolios can benefit from some allocation to strategies like QAW, given its focus on uncorrelated return streams and disciplined risk management.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Leo Nelissen is a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist with a passion for dividend growth, high-quality compounders, and structural investment themes. He combines big-picture macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential. Leo also writes for Main Street Alpha, where he publishes deeper-dive research and actionable investment ideas for long-term investors.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Market crash wipes Rs 34 lakh cr in March so far; can tax harvesting help investors?
Tax harvesting involves two methods tax loss harvesting and tax gains harvesting. Investors are liable to pay capital gains tax on equities only when the shares are sold. While taxes are payable on gains, investors also have an opportunity to save taxes if they incur losses.
What is tax loss harvesting?
Tax loss harvesting involves selling equities that are at a loss and then carrying forward the loss to offset gains in future years. The loss can be carried forward for up to eight assessment years from the assessment year in which it was incurred.
Example: An investor named John sold shares of X Company on Friday (bought in February last year) and made a profit of Rs 5 lakh. Since the holding period is more than 12 months, this is treated as a long-term capital gain (LTCG).
Breaking down his tax liability: Rs 1.25 lakh of the profit is exempt, while the remaining Rs 3.75 lakh is taxed at a flat rate of 12.5%. John wants to reduce his tax liability using tax loss harvesting.
John also owns shares of Y Company, which have fallen significantly below his purchase price. By selling Y shares and incurring losses of Rs 3.75 lakh, his overall tax liability for the year is reduced to zero, as the losses offset the gains from X shares.
“This method is called tax loss harvesting. Normal human tendency is to sell shares that are profitable and hold shares that are in loss. Tax loss harvesting is about selling shares incurring substantial loss so that it can offset profits already made. Unless you sell the shares, you cannot claim the loss under Income Tax law,” said tax and investment expert Balwant Jain.For short-term capital gains (STCG), i.e., profit from selling shares held for less than 12 months, the tax is 20% flat and does not enjoy the Rs 1.25-lakh exemption like LTCG. You can book losses up to the gains made during the year to reduce STCG liability, Jain explains.
What if the stock you want to sell for tax loss harvesting is expected to rally in the future? In John’s example, if he believes Y shares will rise, he can still book a loss and buy the same stock in a different trading account on the same day. If he has only one demat account, he can repurchase the stock the next day. However, intraday sale and purchase on the same day using the same account will not qualify for tax loss harvesting.
What is tax gains harvesting
Consider an investor named Harry. He holds 100 shares of A Company for more than 12 months. Today, the total profit from selling all shares would be Rs 3 lakh.
If Harry sells only 41 shares and continues to hold the rest, his LTCG reduces to Rs 1.23 lakh, which falls under the exemption limit, resulting in zero tax liability. This strategy is called tax gains harvesting.
In the July 2024 budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman revised STCG and LTCG rates:
- STCG: increased from 15% to 20% for shares held less than 12 months.
- LTCG: increased to 12.5% on gains exceeding Rs 1.25 lakh for shares held 12 months or more.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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Is Your Business Developing New Products? It Could Qualify for Tax Breaks.
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