In the early 1990s, Thailand was tipped to be the region’s next economic tiger. Today, it risks being seen as the “sick man of Asia.”

The matter is not just about slower growth. It reflects a deeper policy problem: an economy clinging to an old playbook while the global economy has entered a complicated era marked by geopolitical tensions and structural limits.

The Thai economy, dependent on manufacturing exports and foreign investment, is now facing a truth hard to accept: the old growth model can no longer push the country towards high-income status or better living standards.

If Thailand wants to shake off its decline, it needs not only new measures but also changes in perspective on economic development as a whole.

The old model was built on low-cost labour, foreign direct investment, and large-scale infrastructure such as the Eastern Seaboard. It expanded production quickly and delivered strong growth in the past.

But over time, returns have been diminishing. Foreign investment still flows in, yet much of it sits in low value-added activities. Links with Thai firms remain thin. The state gives up tax revenue through incentives but gains little in creating new economic capabilities domestically. Under this model, Thailand’s growth has lagged behind regional peers such as Vietnam and Indonesia for much of the past decade, reflecting deeper structural weaknesses.

At the same time, inequality is widening.

Headline GDP figures hide the strain beneath. In 2024, the economy grew by 2.9%. Income per head rose to 266,103 baht a year. Yet poverty increased, from 3.41% to 4.89%.

Growth, in other words, does not distribute its benefits equitably.

That is why the real question is not only how to grow faster, but also how to make growth work for more people.

What is missing is not just new policies, but a new organising framework for economic development. One promising approach is “Productivism”, a concept advanced by Dani Rodrik, a renowned scholar of Harvard Kennedy School. The idea is simple in principle, demanding in practice: build an economy that creates good jobs, expands the middle class, and lifts domestic firms.

This requires a proactive state to work alongside business and civil society to drive investment, skill development, innovation, and production, so that growth generates economic opportunities more broadly.

The core of productivism is a focus on the supply side to raise productivity and create good jobs directly, rather than relying on the economy to respond to market incentives and hoping that benefits will automatically trickle down in time.

Instead, it calls for deliberate structural change. Economic policy must help workers, money, and investment move into businesses that create higher value — especially SMEs that employ much of the country’s labour.

Meanwhile, economic growth should not be limited to manufacturing. Technology and automation have reduced manufacturing’s power as a mass employer. For the economy to create good jobs on a wide scale, industrial policy must extend to services as well.

Productivism is not a return to the developmental state model. It does not romanticise the state’s ability, recognizing the state’s limits, especially in developing countries where capacity and information are often constrained. It is not a top-down planning or the old idea of governments “picking winners,” but a shift to a more collaborative and more experimental approach that supports ongoing adjustments.

In practice, policies should be shaped through engagement with firms and other stakeholders. Learning should come from real constraints on the ground, not abstract models. By employing knowledge and experiences from a broader spectrum of the economy, not limited to state orders, adjustment of goals and tools can respond to real needs in time to raise productivity.

This approach is particularly relevant for Thailand, where firm capabilities and domestic linkages remain the binding constraint, rather than capital accumulation alone. This means rethinking industrial policy in several practical terms.

First of all, the focus should be on upgrading firms. Policies should be more targeted, tailored to the needs and potential of different groups, rather than broad schemes with limited structural impact. The aim is clear: to create better jobs, in both manufacturing and services.

The problem has never been a lack of foreign investment. It is the assumption that local supply chains will form automatically. They often do not.

In sectors such as High-Density Interconnect (HDI) Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) or Electric Vehicles, we still face problems in skills, standards, and specialised services. Without intervention, the supply chain linkages will stay weak.

The state, therefore, must step up to build close links between foreign investment and local businesses. It should help build domestic suppliers, support joint research, and upskill labour in concrete ways.

It must also go beyond usual tax incentive measures. What firms, especially SMEs, need is practical government support in areas such as technology extension, standards compliance, skills intermediation, and affordable advisory services. These measures will help SMEs upgrade without having to spend a fortune on consultancy firms.

Coordination is just as critical.

Industrial development cuts across investment, education, research, regulation, and market access. It involves numerous state agencies, but the silos currently observed stall progress. Thailand does not suffer from a lack of committees. It suffers from a lack of problem-solving institutions.

High-level committees on national economic strategies cannot tackle this bottleneck. What is needed is clear leadership in each sector, with real authority to align efforts across state organisations. There must be operational working groups to bring together government, business, and academia to solve problems, track progress, and adjust policies in real time.

To address these challenges, robust metrics matter too. Productivity, domestic linkages, and job quality must be measured and monitored together through reliable indicators and databases. The government cannot act just as a rule-maker. It needs effective indicators and databases to allow adjustments to implemented policies .

Thailand has reached a point where our economic models and tools no longer deliver. Productivism offers a way to overcome current structural constraints that hold the economy back and to rebuild from within.

The label of “sick man of Asia” is not inevitable. Whether Thailand can reverse that trajectory will depend not simply on growth, but on its ability to build a growth model that raises productivity, creates good jobs, and spreads the gains more broadly across society.

Nopparuj Chindasombatcharoen, Ph.D. Is a research fellow and 
Kanlayanee Kaewmee is a researcher at t the Thailand Development and Research Institute (TDRI). Their policy analyses appear in the Bangkok Post on 1 July 2026

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The June quarter earnings season, which kicked off on July 9 with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reporting its results, is expected to gather pace this week. Corporate earnings are projected to grow around 10%, marking the strongest expansion in four quarters. With the results calendar set to intensify, as many as 143 companies are scheduled to announce their June quarter earnings between Monday and Saturday, July 18. Here are the key stocks that will be in focus this week.

July 13: Investors will watch earnings from major names like HCL Technologies, ICICI Prudential AMC, and Bajaj Consumer Care.

Read more: India’s top 3 fuel retailers may report Rs 47,700 crore loss in Q1. What’s behind this?

July 14: Key announcements include Tata Elxsi, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, Jindal Saw, Den Networks and LT Technology Services. With a mix of IT and steel stocks, market participants will be focused on growth trends and profitability in these sectors.

July 15: A busy day for earnings, featuring Jana Small Finance Bank, HDB Financial Services, HDFC Asset Management Company, HDFC Life Insurance Company, Himadri Specialty Chemical, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, MRPL, Reliance Industries Infra, Network18, Union Bank, Angel One, Container Corporation of India, Groww, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, and GTPL Hathaway.

Also read:Nifty Q1 earnings to grow 10%, highest in 4 quarters, says Motilal Oswal. Which sectors will take charge this quarter?
July 16: Top companies reporting include Jio Financial Services, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, ITC Hotels, Newgen Software, Polycab India, Muthoot Capital Services, South Indian Bank, WeWork, SW Solar, Piramal Finance, Nelco, BHEL, 360 One, CEAT, and DB Corp. With IT, FMCG, and banking in the mix, these results will be closely watched to gauge both domestic consumption trends and tech sector momentum.
July 17: Notable earnings announcements will come from Reliance Industries, RBL Bank, Federal Bank, Tata Technologies, Havells India, JSW Steel, Oberoi Realty, and Poonawalla Fincorp. Covering conglomerates, steel, and banking, these results are expected to provide insights into diversified sectoral growth.

July 18: The week closes with key banking names including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, YES Bank, Axis Bank, Can Fin Homes, and Indo Cotspin. Investors will focus on loan growth, asset quality, and capital adequacy as these banks release their June quarter numbers.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

A California man who pleaded guilty to sending fraudulent ransom messages targeting the family of missing Tucson woman Nancy Guthrie has been ordered by a federal judge to complete inpatient substance abuse treatment ahead of his sentencing, as the broader investigation into Guthrie’s disappearance continues more than five months after she vanished.

Derrick Anthony Callella, 42, of Hawthorne, California, pleaded guilty on Thursday, July 2, to two counts of Harassment Using a Telecommunication Device, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Arizona. Callella was arrested in February after the FBI determined he had been sending fraudulent ransom messages to Nancy Guthrie’s daughter, Annie, and her son-in-law, Tommaso Cioni.

According to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Callella admitted as part of his plea that he called and sent text messages to the family on February 4, 2026, inquiring about a bitcoin transfer. “In his plea, Callella admitted that he called and sent text messages to a missing person’s family on Feb. 4, 2026, which asked about a bitcoin transfer. Callella acknowledged that he knew an earlier ransom demand had been made,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office said. The office added that Callella’s actions were not motivated by any actual involvement in Guthrie’s disappearance. “Callella also admitted that his actions were meant to harass the family by seeking information about the investigation into the missing person’s disappearance,” the statement said.

Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC “Today” show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her home in the Catalina Foothills area of Tucson in the early hours of February 1, 2026. Authorities believe she was taken from her home against her will, and the case remains under active investigation by the FBI and the Pima County Sheriff’s Office, which have confirmed they are treating it as a kidnapping for ransom.

As part of his sentencing process, a federal judge has directed Callella to reside in an inpatient substance-use treatment facility or a halfway house for the time being, according to Fox News. Callella is required to follow whatever treatment program he enters and to contribute toward the cost of that treatment as instructed by the U.S. Pretrial Services Division. Should he fail to comply with those requirements, the U.S. Marshals Service has the authority to remove him from the program and place him in temporary custody. Once he completes the treatment program, Callella will be permitted to live in a residence approved by the U.S. Pretrial Services Division.

Inpatient substance abuse programs generally require patients to remain at a treatment facility full-time while receiving care for substance use disorders, according to the Psychiatric Institute of Washington. Such programs are typically reserved for individuals dealing with severe addiction issues or those who require a highly structured environment in order to recover successfully.

Callella’s conviction on the harassment charges carries a maximum potential penalty of two years in prison, a fine of up to $250,000, or both, along with one year of supervised release following any prison term. His sentencing has been scheduled for September 10, 2026, at which point a judge will determine the specific penalty he will face.

Authorities have said Callella was not responsible for a separate, more widely publicized ransom note sent directly to media outlets earlier in the investigation, one that reportedly claimed Guthrie had died shortly after her disappearance. That note, along with other messages the family and media outlets have received throughout the case, remains under separate investigation, and officials have not yet determined whether any of those additional communications are genuine or connected to Guthrie’s actual disappearance.

The broader investigation into Guthrie’s case has produced a series of conflicting public statements from federal officials regarding the authenticity of the various ransom notes received throughout the process. A Reuters report published earlier this month cited a source saying an FBI official had determined none of the notes sent in connection with the case were legitimate, a characterization that appeared to conflict with a subsequent statement from the FBI’s Phoenix field office describing several notes as still under active investigation for potential legitimacy. That discrepancy has drawn scrutiny from outside observers, including at least one retired FBI agent who has publicly speculated that internal disagreement exists within the bureau over how to interpret certain pieces of evidence in the case.

Despite the passage of more than five months since Guthrie went missing, no suspects have been publicly named or arrested in connection with her disappearance. Investigators have said evidence recovered at Guthrie’s home, including bloodstains later confirmed to belong to her, indicated she was taken against her will on the morning she vanished. The FBI previously released doorbell camera footage from the morning of her disappearance showing a masked, armed individual outside her home, an individual the bureau has described as a suspect in the case.

Guthrie’s family, including Savannah Guthrie, has offered a combined reward exceeding $1 million for information leading to her recovery, and authorities have continued to urge anyone with relevant information to come forward. All members of the Guthrie family, along with their spouses, have been officially cleared as suspects in the investigation.

Callella’s case represents one of several instances in which individuals unconnected to Guthrie’s actual disappearance have targeted her family with fraudulent claims or communications since she went missing, a pattern that has added additional strain to an already difficult and prolonged investigation. Authorities have not indicated whether additional arrests related to other fraudulent communications sent during the case are expected in the near future.

Anyone with information related to Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is encouraged to contact the FBI’s tip line at 1-800-CALL-FBI or to reach out directly to the Pima County Sheriff’s Department. The investigation remains active, and officials have described it as ongoing even as the case approaches its sixth month without a confirmed resolution.

Just one week after their own star-studded wedding at Madison Square Garden, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce made their first public appearance as a married couple Friday at the wedding of New York Giants wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, continuing a whirlwind stretch of celebrations following their July 3 nuptials in New York City.

The couple attended Smith-Schuster’s wedding to fitness coach Laura Kruk at the Ritz-Carlton, Laguna Niguel in Orange County, California, on Friday, July 10, according to multiple outlets including People and Page Six. Swift, 36, wore a strapless pink floral brocade gown from designer Markarian, paired with sunglasses and her signature red lip, while Kelce, also 36, wore a black suit for the occasion. Photos obtained by TMZ and Page Six showed the couple walking hand in hand into the venue and later mingling with the bride and groom throughout the evening.

The pair was also photographed spending time with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his wife, Brittany, with Swift seated next to Brittany Mahomes during the reception, according to Giants Wire. Smith-Schuster, 29, signed with the Giants in early June to bolster the team’s receiving corps, and had previously attended Swift and Kelce’s own wedding as one of roughly 1,000 guests present at Madison Square Garden. Smith-Schuster and Kelce were teammates with the Kansas City Chiefs for three seasons, a stretch that included a Super Bowl LVII victory together in February 2023, a shared history that made his inclusion on the couple’s own guest list, and their reciprocal attendance at his wedding, unsurprising to those close to the group.

Smith-Schuster and Kruk became engaged in September 2024 aboard a boat off the coast of Nantucket Island, according to prior reporting on the couple. At Swift and Kelce’s own wedding earlier this month, Kruk had worn a Sau Lee gown featuring a corseted bodice and a draped maroon skirt, a look that notably matched an outfit worn separately by Swift’s longtime friend Abigail Anderson Berard, an overlap widely described in coverage as a lighthearted coincidence given the scale of the guest list at the July 3 event.

Friday’s outing marked the newlyweds’ first public appearance together since their own ceremony, which took place before roughly 1,000 guests at Madison Square Garden. According to a representative for the couple, Swift and Kelce forwent a traditional wedding party of bridesmaids and groomsmen at their own wedding, instead having Swift’s brother, Austin Swift, serve as her “man of honor,” while Kelce’s brother, retired NFL center Jason Kelce, served as his best man. The ceremony was officiated by comedian and longtime family friend Adam Sandler.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, who attended the July 3 ceremony, spoke publicly about Sandler’s role as officiant and the marriage advice Sandler offered the couple during an event in Salt Lake City on July 5. “He told them, ‘Keep kissing,’” Reid said, according to the Deseret News. “So, in its simplest form, that’s a good thing. It’s hard to argue when you give your wife a kiss, or your wife gives you a kiss.”

Other attendees at the July 3 wedding also shared reflections on the celebration in the days that followed. Former NFL quarterback and Thursday Night Football analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended the wedding with his wife, Liza, described the moment Sandler appeared as officiant as a highlight of the evening. “When Adam Sandler walked out — it had everybody floored, that was really cool,” Fitzpatrick told People. “The ceremony was beautiful.” Fitzpatrick also described the reception’s extensive dancing, which he said continued for hours. “There was a LOT of dancing, hours and hours, we’re still kind of recovering from being out on that dance floor for six-plus hours,” he said, adding, “My favorite moment was just I got to spend the night with my wife just on the dance floor, being around and being in it, so that was pretty magical for us.”

Broadcaster Rich Eisen separately confirmed to Entertainment Tonight that the flower girls at the ceremony were the four daughters of Jason Kelce: Wyatt, Elliotte, Bennett and Finnley. Eisen said the girls were “sprinkling flower petals all over the place” throughout the ceremony.

Before traveling to California for Smith-Schuster’s wedding, Swift and Kelce reportedly spent time in Montana with Jason Kelce and his wife, Kylie, according to a source cited by People, with the Daily Mail additionally reporting that the newlyweds visited the members-only Yellowstone Club in Big Sky, Montana, following their own wedding. The couple then traveled to California on Thursday, July 9, ahead of Friday’s celebration for Smith-Schuster and Kruk.

The couple’s public appearance at Smith-Schuster’s wedding came amid separate news regarding the costs associated with their own Madison Square Garden ceremony. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani confirmed earlier this month that Swift had paid more than $160,000 to cover the permit and police security costs tied to closing streets around Madison Square Garden for the wedding, addressing public criticism that had emerged over the use of city resources for the high-profile event.

Friday’s gathering offered fans a rare glimpse into Swift and Kelce’s post-wedding activities amid an otherwise ongoing NFL offseason, with Smith-Schuster continuing preparations for his first season with the Giants after signing with the team in June. The high-profile appearance also underscored the close personal ties between Smith-Schuster and the newly married couple, a friendship rooted in Smith-Schuster and Kelce’s shared history as Kansas City Chiefs teammates and reinforced by their mutual attendance at each other’s weddings within the span of a single week.

Representatives for Swift and Kelce had not issued additional public comment specifically addressing Friday’s appearance at Smith-Schuster’s wedding as of this weekend, though the couple’s continued high-profile presence at events tied to their close circle of friends and former teammates has kept both figures firmly in the spotlight in the days following their own widely covered ceremony.

Most investors instinctively seek safety in numbers. When everyone is buying a stock, joining the rally feels comfortable. When markets fall, selling alongside the crowd seems like the logical decision. However, legendary investor and psychologist Fred C. Kelly argued that this very tendency is what causes most investors to underperform.

In his classic book, Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation, Kelly explained that consistent investment success comes not from following the majority but from understanding crowd psychology and acting independently. According to Kelly, the biggest opportunities often emerge when investors resist popular opinion rather than embrace it.

Why contrarian investing works

Kelly believed that markets are driven as much by human emotions as by business fundamentals. Since fear and greed influence the decisions of most participants, investors who can detach themselves from crowd behaviour are better positioned to identify genuine bargains.

He argued that investors may not always know what the smartest participants in the market are doing, but they can gain valuable clues by observing what the crowd is doing and often choosing the opposite course when supported by sound analysis. However, Kelly also cautioned that contrarian investing is far easier to understand than to practise because it requires going against natural human instincts.

Human psychology drives investment decisions

Kelly believed that the stock market is ultimately a reflection of human behaviour. Investors frequently make emotional decisions by selling quality investments during periods of panic while stubbornly holding on to poor-performing stocks in the hope of recovering their losses.

According to him, investment outcomes are often shaped less by changing economic conditions and more by psychological biases that cloud judgement. Learning to recognise these emotional traps is therefore just as important as analysing financial statements or economic data.

Understanding the typical investor cycle

Kelly described a recurring behavioural pattern followed by many investors. They usually enter the market only after prices have already started rising, book profits too quickly in the early stages, become increasingly confident as prices continue climbing, and eventually buy aggressively near market peaks.When sentiment finally turns negative and pessimism dominates headlines, many lose confidence and sell at a loss, often close to the market bottom. This cycle, repeated across generations, explains why many investors struggle to generate superior long-term returns.

Vanity: The hidden enemy of investors

Among the psychological weaknesses Kelly identified, vanity ranked as one of the most damaging. Investors often hesitate to sell losing positions because admitting a mistake hurts their ego. Instead, they continue holding weak investments while selling profitable ones simply to lock in gains.

Kelly believed that this emotional need to protect one’s pride frequently leads investors to believe rumours, chase market tips and make irrational decisions that ultimately damage long-term wealth creation.

Greed can destroy patience

Kelly viewed greed as the greatest obstacle to disciplined investing. During periods of widespread optimism, investors often rush into expensive stocks because they fear missing further gains. Ironically, this is also when the risk of losses becomes highest.

He believed that successful investing requires patience, the willingness to wait for attractive opportunities instead of chasing assets simply because everyone else is buying them. Market bubbles, in his view, are created when rising prices fuel even greater optimism until reality eventually catches up.

Hope can be costly

Kelly also warned against relying on hope instead of evidence. Investors frequently convince themselves that speculative stocks will eventually recover or that highly risky investments will produce extraordinary returns.

According to Kelly, excessive optimism can lull investors into ignoring warning signs. When everyone believes markets are completely safe, that is often when risks are greatest and panic can spread rapidly if conditions change.

Why logic alone isn’t enough

One of Kelly’s more surprising observations was that what appears logical in the market is often financially harmful. Investors naturally feel comfortable buying stocks after prolonged rallies because positive news is everywhere. Likewise, they become eager to sell after extended declines when negative headlines dominate.

Kelly argued that this tendency causes investors to buy near market tops and sell near market bottoms. Instead, he advised waiting for quality companies to demonstrate resilience before investing rather than assuming a falling stock automatically represents good value. A stock trading below yesterday’s price is not necessarily cheap if its decline is likely to continue.

Not everyone is suited to stock market investing

Kelly acknowledged that successful investing demands a particular temperament. Investors who become emotionally attached to their opinions, refuse to adapt when facts change, or expect quick and effortless profits are unlikely to succeed over the long run.

He believed that investing requires flexibility, continuous learning and emotional discipline. Markets reward those willing to revise their views when evidence changes rather than those who stubbornly defend their previous decisions.

The bottom line

Fred Kelly‘s insights remain remarkably relevant decades after they were first published. While technology, trading platforms and financial products have evolved dramatically, investor psychology has changed very little. Fear, greed, overconfidence and herd mentality continue to influence market behaviour.

Kelly’s central message is timeless: investors who wish to outperform cannot simply follow the crowd. Independent thinking, emotional discipline, patience and a willingness to act differently when supported by sound analysis remain some of the most valuable qualities for achieving long-term investment success.

Disclaimer: This article is based on the investment philosophy and ideas presented by Fred C. Kelly in his book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation.