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Contrarian investing: Fred Kelly’s timeless lessons for winning in the stock market

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Contrarian investing: Fred Kelly's timeless lessons for winning in the stock market
Most investors instinctively seek safety in numbers. When everyone is buying a stock, joining the rally feels comfortable. When markets fall, selling alongside the crowd seems like the logical decision. However, legendary investor and psychologist Fred C. Kelly argued that this very tendency is what causes most investors to underperform.

In his classic book, Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation, Kelly explained that consistent investment success comes not from following the majority but from understanding crowd psychology and acting independently. According to Kelly, the biggest opportunities often emerge when investors resist popular opinion rather than embrace it.

Why contrarian investing works

Kelly believed that markets are driven as much by human emotions as by business fundamentals. Since fear and greed influence the decisions of most participants, investors who can detach themselves from crowd behaviour are better positioned to identify genuine bargains.

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He argued that investors may not always know what the smartest participants in the market are doing, but they can gain valuable clues by observing what the crowd is doing and often choosing the opposite course when supported by sound analysis. However, Kelly also cautioned that contrarian investing is far easier to understand than to practise because it requires going against natural human instincts.

Human psychology drives investment decisions

Kelly believed that the stock market is ultimately a reflection of human behaviour. Investors frequently make emotional decisions by selling quality investments during periods of panic while stubbornly holding on to poor-performing stocks in the hope of recovering their losses.


According to him, investment outcomes are often shaped less by changing economic conditions and more by psychological biases that cloud judgement. Learning to recognise these emotional traps is therefore just as important as analysing financial statements or economic data.

Understanding the typical investor cycle

Kelly described a recurring behavioural pattern followed by many investors. They usually enter the market only after prices have already started rising, book profits too quickly in the early stages, become increasingly confident as prices continue climbing, and eventually buy aggressively near market peaks.When sentiment finally turns negative and pessimism dominates headlines, many lose confidence and sell at a loss, often close to the market bottom. This cycle, repeated across generations, explains why many investors struggle to generate superior long-term returns.

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Vanity: The hidden enemy of investors

Among the psychological weaknesses Kelly identified, vanity ranked as one of the most damaging. Investors often hesitate to sell losing positions because admitting a mistake hurts their ego. Instead, they continue holding weak investments while selling profitable ones simply to lock in gains.

Kelly believed that this emotional need to protect one’s pride frequently leads investors to believe rumours, chase market tips and make irrational decisions that ultimately damage long-term wealth creation.

Greed can destroy patience

Kelly viewed greed as the greatest obstacle to disciplined investing. During periods of widespread optimism, investors often rush into expensive stocks because they fear missing further gains. Ironically, this is also when the risk of losses becomes highest.

He believed that successful investing requires patience, the willingness to wait for attractive opportunities instead of chasing assets simply because everyone else is buying them. Market bubbles, in his view, are created when rising prices fuel even greater optimism until reality eventually catches up.

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Hope can be costly

Kelly also warned against relying on hope instead of evidence. Investors frequently convince themselves that speculative stocks will eventually recover or that highly risky investments will produce extraordinary returns.

According to Kelly, excessive optimism can lull investors into ignoring warning signs. When everyone believes markets are completely safe, that is often when risks are greatest and panic can spread rapidly if conditions change.

Why logic alone isn’t enough

One of Kelly’s more surprising observations was that what appears logical in the market is often financially harmful. Investors naturally feel comfortable buying stocks after prolonged rallies because positive news is everywhere. Likewise, they become eager to sell after extended declines when negative headlines dominate.

Kelly argued that this tendency causes investors to buy near market tops and sell near market bottoms. Instead, he advised waiting for quality companies to demonstrate resilience before investing rather than assuming a falling stock automatically represents good value. A stock trading below yesterday’s price is not necessarily cheap if its decline is likely to continue.

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Not everyone is suited to stock market investing

Kelly acknowledged that successful investing demands a particular temperament. Investors who become emotionally attached to their opinions, refuse to adapt when facts change, or expect quick and effortless profits are unlikely to succeed over the long run.

He believed that investing requires flexibility, continuous learning and emotional discipline. Markets reward those willing to revise their views when evidence changes rather than those who stubbornly defend their previous decisions.

The bottom line

Fred Kelly‘s insights remain remarkably relevant decades after they were first published. While technology, trading platforms and financial products have evolved dramatically, investor psychology has changed very little. Fear, greed, overconfidence and herd mentality continue to influence market behaviour.

Kelly’s central message is timeless: investors who wish to outperform cannot simply follow the crowd. Independent thinking, emotional discipline, patience and a willingness to act differently when supported by sound analysis remain some of the most valuable qualities for achieving long-term investment success.

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Disclaimer: This article is based on the investment philosophy and ideas presented by Fred C. Kelly in his book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation.

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Evolution open to more deals

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Evolution open to more deals

Yes. Corporate subscriptions are available for teams and organisations, with discounted rates as user numbers increase. Pricing starts from $1,625 + GST per user.
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LeBron James Could Be Worth Up to $430 Million to Philadelphia’s Economy, New Estimates Suggest This Year

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LeBron James Miami Heat

LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers this summer for just $8 million over two seasons, a deep discount from the maximum contract he could have commanded elsewhere. But according to new economic projections, the true value of his arrival to the city of Philadelphia could dwarf his actual salary many times over.

Consulting firm The Boyd Company estimated that James’s first full season with the 76ers could generate between $250 million and $430 million in total regional economic activity, a figure the firm shared in a post on X. “A move to Philly is more than a blockbuster sports story — it reinforces one of America’s premier sports and business markets, generates enormous media attention, fan engagement, tourism and economic impact,” the firm wrote. “The Boyd Co. knows that the biggest location decisions — whether made by Fortune 500 companies or superstar athletes — can reshape regional economies and propel a city’s national profile.”

The Boyd Company’s projection does not represent direct revenue for the 76ers organization itself. Instead, it reflects the broader ripple effect James’s presence is expected to have across the wider Philadelphia regional economy, spanning everything from ticket sales and hotel stays to restaurant spending and retail purchases tied to increased tourism and fan travel throughout the season.

James signed a two-year veteran’s minimum contract worth a total of $8 million, walking away from what would likely have been a maximum contract paying him in excess of $50 million annually had he signed elsewhere. His salary for the 2026-27 season specifically will total $3.9 million, according to reporting on the deal. That stark gap between James’s modest actual salary and his projected economic value has led some analysts to describe the signing as potentially the biggest bargain in professional sports history, even before accounting for the on-court talent he brings to a Philadelphia roster that already included Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and newly acquired forward Jaylen Brown.

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Not every economist is comfortable putting a precise number on James’s expected impact this early. Ethan Conner-Ross, an economist with the Philadelphia-based consulting firm Econsult Solutions Inc., cautioned against overstating the certainty of any single projection. “It’s hard to precisely quantify, sitting here today, what that exact number is going to be,” Conner-Ross told The Philadelphia Inquirer. Conner-Ross pointed to several distinct components that would ultimately factor into James’s overall economic footprint in the region, including his own personal spending as a high-earning professional relocating to the area, any local and state taxes he would pay on his income, and the money he would spend on housing, whether renting or purchasing property in the Philadelphia region. That housing question remains unresolved, with some reports suggesting James might instead choose to commute to games from New York City rather than establish a primary residence in the Philadelphia area.

The largest single driver of the projected economic impact is expected to come from home game attendance. Thousands of fans are anticipated to travel to Philadelphia from across the United States, and potentially internationally, specifically to watch James play, a dynamic that would be further amplified if this proves to be the final season of his playing career. Beyond ticket purchases themselves, those visiting fans would generate additional spending on hotels, restaurants, transportation and other tourism-related activity throughout the city during game weekends.

Early evidence of James’s drawing power has already shown up in ticket pricing data. According to TickPick, the average purchase price for a 76ers game last season was $68. Following James’s signing, the cheapest available ticket for the team’s first preseason home game had already climbed to $283, according to the same source, illustrating the immediate shift in market demand tied directly to his arrival on the roster.

James’s move to Philadelphia is also expected to make him the league’s top-selling jersey this season, with fans expected to purchase his new No. 23 76ers jersey in significant numbers. While Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s new No. 7 jersey with the Miami Heat is also expected to sell well following his own offseason move, analysts do not expect it to match the demand generated by a new LeBron James jersey.

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James’s arrival has also elevated Philadelphia’s championship odds for the coming season. With James joining an already talented core, the 76ers now hold the fourth-best odds to win the 2027 NBA championship, according to reporting on the team’s outlook, though economic projections tied to James’s presence remain far more certain than any on-court outcome, since a deep playoff run or championship, while not guaranteed, would likely add substantially to the economic activity already projected for his first season with the team.

James’s move to Philadelphia echoes a similar high-profile relocation from earlier in his career, when he left the Miami Heat in 2014 to return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, a decision that similarly generated significant economic attention and analysis regarding its impact on Cleveland’s local economy at the time. With James now beginning a new chapter of his career in Philadelphia, economists and city officials are likely to continue closely tracking ticket sales, tourism figures and broader regional spending data throughout the season to determine how closely the actual economic impact of his arrival ultimately aligns with the Boyd Company’s initial $250 million to $430 million projection.

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How Companies Track Shifts in Consumer Behaviour Over Time

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What Threat Detection Looks Like in a Large Organisation

Consumers’ behaviors change due to new technologies, trends, economic environment, and customer needs. Organizations unable to track these changes often experience difficulties with competitiveness, while firms capable of doing this can respond quickly and thus improve customer experience and increase revenues.

Today’s consumers expect a personalized approach, faster services, an efficient digital experience, and customized products.

Monitoring changes in consumer behaviors can help organizations to learn how customers find products, compare different offers, buy items, interact with companies, and behave after sales. In turn, this information is useful to enhance marketing initiatives, design innovative solutions, offer high-quality support, and retain customers.

What is the concept of consumer behavior?

Consumers’ behaviors are the actions, decisions, and emotional reactions of customers during each step of their purchasing journey. They include:

  • How do consumers search for the required goods and services?
  • What factors influence people’s choices in favor of one brand rather than another?
  • Which channels are the main ones for customers?
  • How do consumers react to marketing and advertising efforts?
  • Why do clients stop making purchases?
  • How do customers use the purchased goods or services?
  • What causes them to make new orders?

Consumer behaviors involve offline and online activities. Companies examine customers’ visits to websites, social media profiles, search histories, app usage, reviews left by consumers, purchase histories, and customer service interactions to learn more about clients and their needs. Businesses often combine these insights with data collected through social listening tools to better understand customer sentiment and online engagement patterns.

Through behavioral monitoring, firms can detect changes, predict new trends, and adapt to evolving consumer needs.

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Why is monitoring consumer behavior important?

Knowing customers’ behaviors allows businesses to compete successfully by providing a better customer experience, improving products, and developing effective marketing campaigns.

Improving Personalization

Nowadays, consumers require more personalized approaches. Firms use behavioral data to personalize product recommendations, marketing campaigns, emails, and other elements of their websites.

For example, streaming service providers examine video-watching behaviors of customers to come up with content recommendations. E-commerce companies use data collected about the browsing and purchasing activity of customers to recommend additional items.

Personalized customer experience increases satisfaction and boosts revenues since customers tend to purchase products that correspond to their interests and needs.

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Improving Marketing Performance

Through monitoring consumers’ behaviors, organizations get to know which marketing campaigns are more successful and efficient. Businesses may understand what audiences should be addressed by particular campaigns, on what channels ads work better, what types of marketing messages catch consumers’ attention, and which factors motivate people to buy a product.

Thus, marketing specialists are able to run targeted campaigns and save resources. For instance, a company selling vacations can find out that middle-aged women living on the West Coast react well to ads offering travel packages to Hawaii. In such a case, this firm would be able to develop targeted marketing campaigns aimed at this target audience.

Effective personalization usually brings significant profit. As recent studies demonstrate, organizations using personalized marketing strategies tend to receive a much higher return on investment than companies utilizing generic campaigns.

Tip: Small businesses may rely on basic analytics or manual research to understand customer preferences and online engagement. However, as customer conversations grow across multiple channels and regions, larger organizations often turn to enterprise platforms such as Sprinklr Social Listening tool to analyze customer sentiment, monitor brand perception, identify emerging trends, and gain deeper insights into consumer behavior at scale

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Key ways businesses use to monitor consumer behaviors

Firms apply different methods to track customer behaviors in the process of researching and analyzing them.

Quantitative Research

The primary purpose of quantitative research is to measure numerical indicators. Businesses examine various metrics, including:

  • Number of sales
  • Conversion rate
  • Retention rate
  • Click-through rate
  • Purchase frequency
  • Average purchase size

Using this method of research allows firms to spot global trends in the behavior of large audiences.

For example, a retail company may notice that mobile sales have risen by 40% over the last year. It shows consumers’ preferences for mobile purchasing processes.

Qualitative Research

The goal of qualitative research is to uncover emotions, motivations, and perceptions of consumers. Researchers conduct interviews, focus groups, open questionnaires, and user testing to understand how people act.

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For example, customers could tell why difficult navigation or slow-loading pages prevent them from finishing the purchasing process. Such insights can contribute greatly to improving customer experience.

Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is a set of technologies used for predicting future behaviors of customers. Organizations use this tool to predict:

  • Possibilities to convert leads into clients
  • Chances of customers’ churn
  • Product demand
  • Customer lifetime value
  • Clients’ response to special offers

Predictive AI systems enable businesses to take care of customer needs beforehand.

For example, a company may discover that some customers show symptoms of dissatisfaction or loss of interest. In such a situation, businesses can run a campaign aimed at retaining clients.

Customer Journey Mapping

Customer journey mapping is a technique allowing businesses to trace every interaction of customers with a firm. Such interactions may relate to:

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  • Ads seen by customers
  • Social media interactions
  • Website visits
  • Contacts with customer support
  • Payment process
  • Interactions that occur after the purchasing process

Customer journey mapping helps firms to detect points that cause trouble for users and prevent them from completing the desired actions.

For example, a company may find out that a lot of users leave websites without buying goods because of complicated registration. To avoid losing potential customers, firms need to optimize these processes.

New AI systems for customer journey mapping analyze data coming from surveys, phone calls, client reviews, and other interactions to detect key touchpoints. Many organizations also integrate social listening tools into journey mapping strategies to identify customer concerns and trending discussions across online communities.

Cohort Analysis

In cohort analysis, clients are divided into groups based on their common traits or events and monitored for changes in behavior. Cohorts may consist of people who:

  • Bought something in a certain month
  • Are customers from a particular marketing campaign
  • Live in certain regions
  • Belong to a specific age group
  • Have started subscriptions at a certain point in time

Analyzing cohorts makes it possible to see general behavioral tendencies and draw conclusions from them.

For example, an organization could find out that clients recruited via influencer marketing remain loyal for a much longer period than those obtained via paid search ads.

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Cohort analysis gives businesses an understanding of how marketing campaigns affect retention rates and customer lifetime value.

Conclusion

Monitoring changes in consumer behavior has become critical for modern organizations. By discovering customers’ behaviors, businesses may be able to develop efficient marketing campaigns, invent innovative products, offer good support, and establish connections with clients.

Organizations obtain valuable data on customer behaviors from their websites, mobile apps, CRM systems, social media, interactions with customer support services, surveys, and AI-powered analytical platforms. Combining the methods of qualitative and quantitative research allows organizations to learn more about customers and their needs. The use of social listening tools further helps companies track customer opinions, industry trends, and brand reputation in real time.

Technologies, such as predictive analytics, customer journey mapping, cohort analysis, and A/B testing, help companies identify important tendencies and predict future trends.

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What the Welsh Government needs to do to boost new housebuilding

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Business Live

Director with family-run housebuilder Llanmoor Homes, Tim Grey, on what the Welsh Government should focus on to support much needed new home development

Housebuilding.(Image: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire)

The Plaid Cymru has been in government for more than two months now and its ministers are starting to get to grips with the serious business of running Wales.

The Welsh Government faces a series of challenges more acute than at any time since devolution, with areas like the economy, health and education all demanding urgent attention.

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However, one of the key priorities in this Senedd term must be housing. Wales is facing an ongoing housing crisis, with a shortage of homes across all areas of the country, and if the new government doesn’t rise to the challenge, it risks significant damage to the future wellbeing of Wales.

During the election campaign, it was very positive to see broad agreement across all the political parties that more new homes must be built, even if they differed on how to achieve this.

But what wasn’t discussed as much was the importance of open market homes and the role that private sector housing developers can play in this crucial national mission.

Here are some of the issues that must be addressed by the new Welsh Government when it comes to housing:

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1. Build more homes for the open market

The reality is that housing supply has not kept pace with demand, and without meaningful intervention this imbalance will continue to affect affordability and access to homeownership.

While social housing targets remain important, they represent only part of the solution. Plaid has already allocated an additional £20m of funding for the delivery of new social homes in its supplementary budget (though as it lost the vote it remains to be seen what happens with this). Increasing the supply of high-quality open market homes must sit alongside these ambitions if the overall housing challenge is to be addressed effectively.

Delivering this will require a more streamlined and responsive planning process, supported by a pro-development mindset across both the Welsh Government and local authorities. Housing should be recognised not as a constraint, but as a catalyst for sustainable economic growth and stronger communities.

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2. Fix the planning system

The current planning system in Wales is not operating as efficiently as it needs to. Securing consent for developments can take significant time and often involves unnecessary complexity, in part due to under-resourced local authority planning departments.

Plaid pledged to reform planning in its manifesto, including giving communities more power over development and review the use of Section 106 agreements.

While we wait to see what this looks like in practice, there is a clear need to reduce barriers and create a more supportive environment for delivering new homes. A key priority should be the widespread adoption and timely updating of Local Development Plans (LDPs), providing greater certainty for development over the medium to long term.

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Where land has already been allocated for housing within an LDP, there should be a clear presumption in favour of development. Providing this level of clarity would help unlock sites more quickly and ensure that opportunities to deliver new homes are not unnecessarily delayed.

3. Support small and medium-sized housebuilders

The number of SME housebuilders operating in Wales has declined significantly in recent decades, reflecting the growing challenges smaller firms face. Rising costs, complex regulation and barriers to accessing finance have all contributed to a more concentrated market.

A less diverse housebuilding sector risks limiting both the pace and the variety of homes being delivered. Smaller developers often play a vital role in bringing forward sites that larger firms may overlook, as well as responding more directly to local housing needs.

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Supporting SMEs through improved access to finance, proportionate regulation and incentives for smaller site development would help restore balance to the market and increase overall delivery. A more diverse sector is not only economically beneficial but essential to meeting Wales’s housing needs.

Taken together, these issues highlight the scale of the challenge, but also the opportunity facing the new Welsh Government. With the right policy framework, a more efficient planning system and a commitment to supporting the full breadth of the housing sector, meaningful progress can be made.

Housing is not simply one policy area among many. It underpins economic growth, social mobility and the overall wellbeing of communities across Wales. Addressing the housing crisis must remain a central priority in this Senedd term, with sustained focus and collaboration between government and industry to deliver the homes the country urgently needs.

  • Tim Grey is sales director at Pontyclun-baed Llanmoor Homes.
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Hubble Reveals Andromeda Galaxy Is Slowly Winding Down Its Star Formation After an Ancient Burst of Activity

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The Hubble Space Telescope's detailed view of 200 million stars

New analysis of data from the Hubble Space Telescope suggests the Andromeda galaxy, humanity’s nearest large galactic neighbor, is gradually winding down from a dramatic burst of star formation that occurred roughly 2 billion years ago, offering astronomers fresh clues about how large spiral galaxies evolve over time.

Andromeda, also known by its catalog designation M31, sits roughly 2.5 million light-years from Earth in the constellation of the same name. It stands out as the only major galaxy in the universe currently moving closer to the Milky Way rather than speeding away, and its comparatively close proximity makes it an especially valuable laboratory for studying galaxy formation and evolution.

The new study, published July 27 in The Astrophysical Journal, combined two major Hubble surveys that together mapped roughly two-thirds of Andromeda’s disk, capturing detailed data on approximately 200 million individual stars. Researchers found that Andromeda’s star formation rate has been steadily declining over the past 500 million years. Roughly 500 million years ago, the galaxy was forming stars at a rate of approximately one solar mass per year. By 40 million years ago, that rate had fallen by half, and the current rate has dropped further still, to just one-fifth of a solar mass annually.

Andromeda is a giant spiral galaxy broadly similar in structure to the Milky Way but roughly twice as massive. Scientists already knew the galaxy experienced a dramatic burst of star formation approximately 2 billion years ago, an event thought to have produced roughly a fifth of all the stars currently within Andromeda. That earlier starburst is believed to have resulted from a merger with another galaxy, most likely the compact elliptical galaxy M32, which continues to orbit Andromeda today.

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The new research found that most of Andromeda’s recent star formation activity has been concentrated within a ring located roughly 32,000 light-years from the galaxy’s center, and that declining activity specifically within this ring accounts for the bulk of the overall slowdown observed across the galaxy. That pattern suggests Andromeda is gradually settling down from its earlier burst of star formation rather than abruptly running out of the raw material needed to form new stars.

Researchers also examined whether Andromeda’s companion galaxy, M32, may have played a role in the observed slowdown. Regions of Andromeda located closest to M32 show a more recent decline in star formation activity compared with other parts of the galaxy, raising the possibility that the smaller companion galaxy has influenced the broader trend. Even so, the researchers described the evidence connecting M32 directly to the slowdown as inconclusive based on current data.

Ben Williams, an astronomer at the University of Washington and a co-author of the study, explained why Hubble’s specific capabilities made this kind of detailed stellar analysis possible. “We need to measure the individual stars because they are the fossil record of the galaxy’s formation,” Williams said in a statement released by NASA. “Hubble is the only telescope that can give you high enough spatial resolution over a large enough area to be able to do that in Andromeda.”

While the research team plans to continue mining Hubble’s existing data archive for additional insights, they are also preparing to incorporate observations from NASA’s upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, currently scheduled to launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket as soon as Aug. 30. With a field of view at least 100 times larger than Hubble’s, the Roman telescope is expected to survey the entirety of the Andromeda galaxy and its surrounding halo in unprecedented detail once operational, potentially resolving some of the open questions the current study was unable to fully answer, including the precise role M32 may have played in Andromeda’s star formation decline.

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For skywatchers hoping to observe Andromeda themselves, the galaxy is best viewed during the month of November and remains visible to the naked eye even from locations experiencing moderate light pollution, given its status as the most distant object generally visible without a telescope or binoculars.

Looking further ahead, Andromeda’s continued approach toward the Milky Way is expected to eventually culminate in a galactic collision, an event astronomers estimate could occur roughly 5 billion years from now, though the galaxy’s precise long-term trajectory and the ultimate outcome of any such collision remain uncertain given the complex gravitational interactions at play between the two galaxies and their surrounding satellite systems.

With the new findings adding to a growing body of research examining how Andromeda’s stellar populations formed and evolved over billions of years, astronomers say the combination of continued Hubble analysis and the forthcoming Roman Space Telescope observations should provide an increasingly detailed picture of how the galaxy has changed over cosmic time, offering broader insight into the life cycles of large spiral galaxies throughout the universe, including our own Milky Way.

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ExxonMobil: A Capital Return Play Amid Soaring FCF

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Donald Trump's War On Iran May Have Just Saved America's Oil Industry (Commodity:CL1:COM)

ExxonMobil: A Capital Return Play Amid Soaring FCF

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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited 2026 Q2 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:PEXNY) 2026-08-03

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Greatland boss blasts tax changes

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Greatland boss blasts tax changes

Greatland Resources boss Shaun Day has warned the federal government’s Capital Gains Tax changes are already discouraging investors from seeking growth assets.

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Australian Petrol Prices Jump as Fuel Excise Cut Expires and Middle East Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher

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Petrol

Australian motorists are facing a significant jump in fuel costs this week, as a temporary reduction in the federal fuel excise expires and rising international oil prices tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continue pushing pump prices higher across the country.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s most recent weekly fuel price monitoring report, covering the week ending July 29, showed capital city petrol prices averaging 193.6 cents per liter and diesel averaging 232.8 cents per liter, according to figures compiled by IndexBox. Both figures reflect a notable increase from previous weeks, driven by a combination of the partial restoration of the federal fuel excise and higher international refined fuel prices tied to ongoing Middle East instability.

The current 16-cent-per-liter reduction in the federal fuel excise is set to expire Aug. 2. From Aug. 3, the excise rate rises to 53.7 cents per liter, reflecting both the return of the 16-cent reduction and a separate indexed adjustment of 1.1 cents per liter tied to changes in the Consumer Price Index. That increase follows an earlier partial restoration of 16 cents per liter that took effect July 1, after a larger, temporary 32-cent excise cut had been in place beginning April 1. Taken together, the combined impact of these tax changes, including flow-through effects on the goods and services tax, could add up to 17.6 cents per liter to pump prices, according to the ACCC’s analysis.

Wholesale fuel costs have moved sharply in the same direction. Average terminal gate prices for petrol across Australia’s five largest cities rose by as much as 36.8 cents per liter between June 30 and July 29, while terminal gate prices for diesel climbed by as much as 63.8 cents per liter over the same period. The Australian Taxation Office published the updated fuel excise rates on July 29, formally confirming the new 53.7-cent-per-liter rate that took effect this week.

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Current national average pump prices reflect the scale of the recent increases. According to fuel-tracking service Petrolmate, the national average unleaded petrol price stood at 198.9 cents per liter as of Aug. 1, up 26.0 cents compared with the previous month. Victoria currently holds the position of Australia’s cheapest state for petrol, with an average unleaded price of 197.1 cents per liter, while the Northern Territory has the country’s highest prices, averaging 244.0 cents per liter. Petrolmate’s tracking draws on data from more than 13,600 fuel stations nationwide, sourced from official government fuel-price monitoring programs across each state and territory.

The recent price increases follow a period of extraordinary volatility in Australian fuel markets over the past year. According to Trading Economics, gasoline prices in Australia climbed to a record high of $1.74 per liter, measured in U.S. dollar terms, in March 2026, up sharply from $1.22 per liter in February, reflecting a combination of global oil market pressures and domestic tax policy changes over that period.

Beyond the immediate pricing pressures, Australia has also moved to address longer-term questions about the country’s domestic fuel refining capacity. On July 28, the Federal Government and the Government of Western Australia jointly announced plans and funding for a feasibility study into developing a new oil refinery in Western Australia, a project that, if it proceeds, would represent the first large-scale refinery built in Australia since the 1960s. Australia currently operates just two large-scale oil refineries, one in Brisbane and one in Geelong, a significantly reduced domestic refining base compared with earlier decades, when the country hosted a considerably larger number of operating refineries.

Viva Energy, which operates the Geelong refinery, released a trading update July 28 covering the six months to June 30, 2026, reporting that its refiner margin for the Geelong facility had increased in U.S. dollar terms during the period, reflecting broader strength in refining margins across the region amid the current period of elevated global oil prices.

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Despite the recent increases, Australia continues to maintain comparatively low fuel prices relative to many other developed economies. Official statistics from the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics and the International Energy Agency show that Australia has historically maintained among the lowest petrol and diesel prices of any OECD member country, a position attributed in part to the country’s domestic oil and gas production, which reduces reliance on imported fuel and helps moderate retail prices compared with nations more dependent on international energy markets.

With the higher fuel excise rate now in effect and international oil prices remaining sensitive to further developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict, Australian motorists are likely to continue facing elevated fuel costs in the near term, even as the government’s proposed new refinery feasibility study represents a longer-term effort to address the country’s broader fuel security and refining capacity concerns.

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Ehrmann Cornish Dairy names new chief executive

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He will take over the running of the former Trewithen Dairy near Lostwithiel

Ehrmann Cornish Dairy has appointed Ed Watts as chief executive

Ehrmann Cornish Dairy has appointed Ed Watts as chief executive(Image: PR handout)

A Cornish dairy that was acquired two years ago by a German food giant has appointed a new chief executive.

Ed Watts will take up the running of Ehrmann Cornish Dairy – the new name for the former Trewithen Dairy at Graymare Farm near Lostwithiel.

The appointment comes as the UK arm of the now German-owned business enters the next phase of its growth strategy in Britain.

Following a period of significant investment in its operations, the business has returned to profitable trading and is now focused on establishing the Ehrmann brand in the UK, expanding manufacturing capability and strengthening its position across branded and own-label dairy, the European group said.

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Mr Watts has held senior commercial roles at firms including Jacobs Douwe Egberts, Johnson & Johnson, Reckitt and Mars. Most recently, he was chief commercial officer at Ehrmann Cornish Dairy, supporting the integration of Cornish Dairy Co into the wider Ehrmann business.

He will now lead the delivery of the company’s long-term turnaround and development plans, overseeing continued investment in production, innovation and operational efficiency.

The business is currently investing in a new state-of-the-art desserts facility, due for completion by the end of 2026, alongside a programme of projects expected to deliver “significant cost savings” by early next year.

“This is an incredibly exciting opportunity to lead a business with such strong foundations, exceptional people and genuine ambition,” he said.

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“We’ve already made significant progress in stabilising the business, investing in our operations and building long-term partnerships with customers and farmers, and now we’re focused on accelerating that momentum.

“My vision is for Ehrmann Cornish Dairy to become recognised as one of the top three dairy companies in the UK. We have the scale, expertise and investment behind us to achieve that, and by continuing to innovate, investing in our manufacturing capabilities and delivering outstanding products for both branded and own-label customers, I’m confident we can establish ourselves as one of the defining businesses in the UK dairy sector.”

Trewithen Dairy was acquired by Ehrmann in 2024 for an undisclosed sum. Bosses at the Cornish dairy farm said at the time the deal would secure the jobs of its 260 staff.

Its former owners, Bill and Rachel Clarke, whose family had run the business since 1976, retired after the sale completed. Their son, Francis, stayed on as chief procurement officer.

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Ehrmann, which is more than 100 years old, pledged to grow sales of Trewithen’s portfolio of branded and own-label Cornish dairy products.

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