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Explained: How RBI’s safety net to protect falling rupee could mean Rs 4,000 crore shock for banks

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Explained: How RBI’s safety net to protect falling rupee could mean Rs 4,000 crore shock for banks
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) emergency intervention to arrest the rupee‘s freefall amid the Iran war has set up a potential Rs 4,000 crore hit to the banking sector, as lenders race to unwind billions of dollars in arbitrage positions before an April 10 deadline.

The rupee rebounded nearly 1% to 93.85 per dollar on Monday after the RBI capped banks’ net open positions at $100 million at the end of each business day, a dramatic tightening that forces lenders to dismantle large one-sided bets against the currency. But the banking sector paid an immediate price.

Nifty Bank tumbled 2.5%, with Axis, Kotak, and IndusInd Bank leading losses with 3% declines, while ICICI, HDFC Bank, and SBI fell around 2% each.

The directive comes as the rupee has depreciated roughly 10% this fiscal year and 3.5% since the Gulf conflict began, falling from 85.57 per dollar on April 1, 2025, to 90.98 by February 27, a day before the war started, ultimately hitting a record low of 94.84 last Friday.

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The Mechanics of Pain

The potential losses stem from how banks had structured their foreign exchange operations. Lenders built substantial arbitrage positions by buying dollars in the onshore market at lower premiums and selling them in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market at higher premiums, exploiting the spread between the two segments. The size of such positions is estimated at $25 billion to over $50 billion, according to Reuters.
“We understand that the forex derivative market is dominated by larger banks (Indian banks like SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis, and leading foreign banks operating in India) with gross onshore positions of $30-40bn that offset each other,” wrote Prakhar Sharma and Vinayak Agarwal of Jefferies. “The normal trade is for banks to buy USD in the onshore market (at a lower premium) and sell/ square off in the offshore market (at a higher premium) to generate a spread and build depth in the market.”
The analysts warned that unwinding these positions could trigger mark-to-market losses in the fourth quarter. “Every Rs1/USD dual movement in INR on $30-40 bn of book can lead to a one-time loss of Rs 30-40 bn (Rs 3,000-4,000 crore) for the banking sector,” they noted. If the gap between rupee-dollar rates in the NDF market and the onshore market widens to Re 1 during unwinding, traders said banks could face losses of up to Rs 4,000 crore, reflected in current fiscal year books, as banks had calculated open positions after netting off hedged NDF trades.

Why the RBI Acted


The central bank’s intervention comes amid intense pressure on the rupee from multiple fronts. The currency has tumbled through key psychological levels in quick succession, pressured by surging crude oil prices and concerns that the Gulf war may not end soon.

The spread between offshore and onshore markets had widened significantly amid heightened volatility and risk aversion tied to oil-driven pressures linked to the Iran war.

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“The measure compels lenders to scale back large positions and curbs their ability to build aggressive one-sided bets against the rupee,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities. “The intervention comes as the rupee has declined more than 4% over the past month, falling to around 94.82 per US dollar. Pressure has been compounded by sustained capital outflows, including over $11 billion withdrawn from Indian equities and record bond outflows of $1.6 billion in March, further weakening demand for the currency.”

Banks seek relief


The banking sector has sought leniency from the RBI on implementation. “Our conversations with banks indicate that the RBI is considering some relief, which may include grandfathering existing contracts and applying limits only to new contracts,” Jefferies analysts wrote. “It may also consider extending the deadline beyond April 10 to allow for smoother forex market movement and reduce MTM impact on banks.”

Most large and mid-sized banks with net open positions exceeding $100 million are expected to sell dollars to comply with the directive, potentially triggering a wave of onshore dollar selling as they rush to unwind arbitrage positions.

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Not everyone views the potential losses as catastrophic. Fund manager Samir Arora offered a contrarian take: “Just relax about this supposed Rs 4,000 crore loss on FX unwinding. In just the past month, the INR has depreciated by over 4%. These positions would not have been set up for the first time at Friday’s close. Banks would be sitting on significant gains by now (which equity markets may not have fully priced in), and they will simply give up some of those profits. Big deal.”

Arora also suggested the impact may be concentrated elsewhere: “Some of the larger positions may have been taken by more aggressive foreign banks (like Citi, etc.). That’s not a major concern for our markets.”

The road ahead


While the RBI’s move may provide temporary support to the rupee, traders remain cautious about the currency’s trajectory. If the West Asia conflict persists and crude oil prices remain elevated, the focus could quickly shift back to the 96–97 per US dollar range in April as the next pressure zone, traders warned.

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The unwinding may also create winners. Appreciation of the rupee in the NDF market could lead to gains for hedge funds and foreign banks in forex derivatives, Jefferies analysts noted.

For now, the central bank has bought breathing room for the rupee, but at a cost the banking sector is likely to bear in its Q4 earnings.

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How Thapanee Techajareonvikul is making it her own

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How Thapanee Techajareonvikul is making it her own

Thapanee Techajareonvikul, CEO of Berli Jucker, shares her journey of leading her family’s multi-billion-dollar TCC Group empire, emphasizing strategic growth, family succession, and leveraging AI to drive innovation and efficiency.

Summary of the Video

Thapanee Techajareonvikul, President & CEO of Berli Jucker (BJC) and a second‑generation leader of Thailand’s TCC Group, reflects on inheriting and expanding one of Southeast Asia’s largest family business empires. She discusses her father Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi’s rise from humble beginnings, the family’s succession structure, her leadership philosophy, and how technology—especially AI—is reshaping their operations. The conversation also explores the dynamics of working with her husband, the group’s expansion into Vietnam, and preparing the third generation for future roles.


Highlights

00:00:00 Foundations of the Empire

  • Her father began in the liquor business at age 15.
  • He believed “waste is gold,” building efficiency from the ground up.
  • Strategic partnerships and consolidation turned the whiskey business into a national powerhouse.

00:03:35 Diversification with Discipline

  • Expansion always stayed close to core competencies.
  • Property investments and acquisitions (e.g., Berli Jucker, ThaiBev) were made only when they strengthened the ecosystem.
  • The family built an integrated conglomerate spanning F&B, packaging, retail, property, and finance.

00:07:01 Leadership Transition with Her Husband

  • Thapanee took over BJC in 2023; her husband Aswin moved to lead Big C.
  • They have always worked side‑by‑side and maintain an open, debate‑friendly leadership style.
  • Work and life blend seamlessly: “Life is work and work is life.”

00:09:10 Her Leadership Style

  • She emphasizes listening, respect, and creating a supportive environment.
  • Encourages open discussion and values diverse viewpoints.
  • Focuses on building strong foundations for future challenges.

00:10:02 AI and Operational Efficiency

  • AI is used in logistics (truck routing), boosting sales by 40% YoY.
  • Manufacturing uses AI to reduce energy consumption in glass production.
  • Optimization initiatives saved USD 36 million last year.

00:11:13 Expansion into Vietnam

  • BJC acquired MM Mega Market for nearly USD 700M.
  • Vietnam is seen as the next major growth engine for TCC Group.
  • Combining B2B (MM) with B2C (Big C) creates a powerful regional retail platform.

00:12:12 Succession Strategy

  • Five siblings each oversee a different business vertical.
  • A family council, led by her brother Thapana, ensures unity and smooth decision‑making.
  • The second generation is learning to collaborate more closely as the businesses grow.

00:14:16 Preparing the Third Generation

  • 14 members meet twice a year to explore roles and interests.
  • Unlike the second generation, they are free to choose their own paths.
  • Exposure, not pressure, is the guiding principle.

00:15:46 Core Lessons from Her Parents

  • Never expand into areas unrelated to the core business.
  • Build step by step, with discipline and long‑term vision.
  • Always give back to society—community impact is a core family value.

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I Demand +9% Yields | Seeking Alpha

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I Demand +9% Yields | Seeking Alpha

This article was written by

Rida Morwa is a former investment and commercial Banker, with over 35 years of experience. He has been advising individual and institutional clients on high-yield investment strategies since 1991. Rida Morwa leads the Investing Group High Dividend Opportunities where he teams up with some of Seeking Alpha’s top income investing analysts. The service focuses on sustainable income through a variety of high yield investments with a targeted safe +9% yield. Features include: model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, preferred and baby bond portfolios for more conservative investors, vibrant and active chat with access to the service’s leaders, dividend and portfolio trackers, and regular market updates. The service philosophy focuses on community, education, and the belief that nobody should invest alone. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PFFA, CCD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Beyond Saving, Philip Mause, and Hidden Opportunities, all are supporting contributors for High Dividend Opportunities. Any recommendation posted in this article is not indefinite. We closely monitor all of our positions. We issue Buy and Sell alerts on our recommendations, which are exclusive to our members.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Inside Incomplete Sentences: The Quiet Work of Telling Whole Stories

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Inside Incomplete Sentences: The Quiet Work of Telling Whole Stories

A yearlong campaign reframes what it means to do social impact through narrative.

Suggested placements: Thrive Global, Psychreg, Millennial Magazine, Parle Magazine  •  Editorial / contributed

Most social impact campaigns choose one of two registers. They go big and abstract, asking readers to care about a system, or they go small and personal, asking readers to care about one person inside it. Incomplete Sentences, a yearlong initiative launched in March 2026 by The Millbrook Companies in partnership with the Lone Star Justice Alliance, tries to do both at once. It does so by treating narrative itself as the system.

The campaign launched with a simple framing. When a person is sentenced, the language of that sentence enters the public record and starts doing work the person can no longer control. It travels into search results, news clips, family conversations, future job applications. Over time, the sentence becomes a stand-in for the person. Incomplete Sentences asks what is lost when that substitution happens, and what changes when the rest of the story is allowed back in.

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A campaign built around four voices

The campaign is structured around four LSJA clients who were sentenced to prison as minors in Texas. Each will be featured throughout 2026 through a combination of long-form profiles, first-person essays, original poetry, and educational content. The first to be introduced was Delicia Carmichael, a survivor of sex trafficking sentenced at fifteen, whose own writing now anchors part of the campaign’s editorial canon.

What the campaign refuses to do is treat these voices as case studies. There are no thumbnail biographies. There is no rush to a moral. The structure is closer to literary nonfiction than to advocacy communications, and the editorial choice is intentional. Readers who arrive expecting a brief get something else, which is room to actually meet the person they are reading about.

That patience is unusual in cause-based content, and it is one of the things that makes the campaign worth paying attention to as a piece of communications craft.

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Why a reputation collective and a legal nonprofit

The pairing of partners is also unusual. The Millbrook Companies is a collective of agencies whose specialties run from digital reputation management to performance marketing to strategic advisory. Lone Star Justice Alliance is a Texas-based legal nonprofit that has been advocating for youth and emerging adults inside the criminal legal system since 2017.

On paper, those are different worlds. In practice, they share a working language. Both organizations spend their days thinking about how information moves, what gets emphasized, what gets buried, and how a single framing can determine outcomes for a real human being. Incomplete Sentences is what happens when those two practices are pointed at the same problem.

The campaign’s launch announcement put it directly. Access to accurate, balanced information is essential to personal empowerment and functional systems. That is a sentence equally at home in a courtroom brief and a brand strategy document.

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Storytelling as infrastructure

There is a quieter craft layer running beneath the campaign that bears noticing. The work of reaching readers in 2026 is not the same as the work of reaching readers a decade ago. Audiences live inside an information environment shaped by social platforms, search algorithms, and increasingly by AI-generated summaries that compress source material into a few sentences before a human reader ever sees it.

In that environment, storytelling is no longer the soft tissue around the campaign. It is the infrastructure. If the story is not built carefully enough to survive compression, it will not survive at all. Incomplete Sentences appears to have been designed with that pressure in mind. The campaign produces multiple formats around each featured voice, including long-form articles, first-person pieces, poetry, and explainer content, so that whichever surface a reader encounters first, the picture they receive is closer to whole.

That is communications work in the most literal sense: the work of making something communicable. It is also why a campaign that looks at a glance like a justice reform initiative reads, on closer inspection, like a meditation on attention itself.

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What good looks like

It is too early to measure Incomplete Sentences by traditional impact metrics. The campaign is a few months old. Stories are still being released. Volunteer cohorts are still being seated for later quarters. By the end of 2026, there will be data, including reach numbers, fundraising totals, and policy moments where the campaign’s editorial work shows up in advocacy contexts.

The early signal worth tracking is something quieter. It is whether readers who arrive through one entry point, an Instagram post, a syndicated article, a Substack essay, leave with a more complete sense of a person they had previously known only through a charge sheet. That is the campaign’s working definition of success, and it is the one most worth taking seriously.

For now, the invitation is simple. Visit incompletesentences.org. Read one full story instead of one summary. Sit with what shifts. Then decide what to do with that shift.

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That is what whole stories ask of the people who read them, and it is what this campaign is built to make possible.

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EasyJet says possible takeover bid 'opportunistic'

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EasyJet says possible takeover bid 'opportunistic'

US investment firm Castlelake is considering making an offer for the budget airline.

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The Smart Money Is Quietly Buying These REITs

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The Smart Money Is Quietly Buying These REITs

This article was written by

Jussi Askola is the President of Leonberg Capital, a value-oriented investment boutique that consults hedge funds, family offices, and private equity firms on REIT investing. He has authored award-winning academic papers on REIT investing, has passed all three CFA exams, and has built relationships with many top REIT executives.

He is the leader of the investing group High Yield Landlord, where he shares his real-money REIT portfolio and transactions in real-time. Features of the group include: three portfolios (core, retirement, international), buy/sell alerts, and a chat room with direct access to Jussi and his team of analysts to ask questions. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of FR, INVH, NHI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Waldencast agrees to sell Obagi Medical for up to $460 million

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Waldencast agrees to sell Obagi Medical for up to $460 million

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Taysha Gene Therapies: Shortened Timeline Increases The Potential

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Taysha Gene Therapies: Shortened Timeline Increases The Potential

Taysha Gene Therapies: Shortened Timeline Increases The Potential

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Marc Bolland Appointed by Government to Tackle UK Youth Unemployment Crisis

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Marc Bolland Appointed by Government to Tackle UK Youth Unemployment Crisis

Whitehall has turned to one of the City’s most seasoned retail chiefs in an attempt to head off what ministers are now privately describing as the most acute youth unemployment crisis in more than a decade.

Marc Bolland, the former chief executive of Marks & Spencer, has been drafted in by the government to corral Britain’s biggest employers behind a renewed push to get young people into work, following an excoriating review by the former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn that warned the country risked sacrificing a generation to worklessness.

Milburn’s interim report, published this week, found that one in six 16- to 24-year-olds will be out of work, education or training within five years unless ministers act decisively. The figure currently stands at one in eight. Official data has already pushed the cohort of so-called NEETs above the one-million mark, the highest level in more than 12 years, and Milburn warned of a “generational fault line” opening up beneath the labour market.

“The problem is that for too many young people, opportunities are not growing, they’re shrinking,” Milburn wrote. His review found that six in ten NEETs have never held a job, yet 84 per cent of those surveyed said they wanted to work or train, a finding that has galvanised support inside Number 11 for a more interventionist approach.

Bolland, who also ran Morrisons and served as chief operating officer at Heineken, will report to Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden and take up the role of Lead Non-Executive Director at the Department for Work and Pensions. His brief, confirmed by the government, is to convene chief executives across sectors and to advise ministers on how to respond to Milburn’s findings.

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It is familiar territory. In 2012, in the wake of the previous summer’s riots, Bolland founded Movement to Work, the employer-led charity that has since helped more than 200,000 disadvantaged young people into employment. That track record, built on persuading rival boardrooms to pool resources rather than wait for state schemes, is precisely what ministers hope he can replicate at scale.

“I believe the government is serious about tackling this generational crisis of youth unemployment,” Bolland said on his appointment, “and I know that working hand-in-hand with business to support young people gives them the best possible chance of success.”

Alongside Bolland’s appointment, the government has secured commitments from some of the UK’s largest employers to back 300,000 work experience and training placements over the next three years. McDonald’s was first off the blocks earlier this year with 2,500 paid work experience placements, and Whitehall is now banking on a long tail of mid-market and SME employers following suit.

The push dovetails with the Treasury’s £725m package of apprenticeship reforms, which is expected to create 50,000 new roles and introduce shorter, more flexible training routes from April. Together, the measures represent the most concerted attempt to rebuild the rungs of the working ladder since the Coalition’s apprenticeship drive of the early 2010s.

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Whether it works will depend in no small part on whether Bolland can persuade boardrooms that the cost of a placement now is cheaper than the cost of a hollowed-out talent pipeline later. As Milburn put it in his own assessment of the review’s findings, for every £1 the state spent on employment support for young people in 2024/25, roughly £25 went on benefits. That, more than any speech from the Despatch Box, is the number business will be asked to help shift.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Hinkley Point C nuclear plant announces ‘tremendous’ milestone

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Business Live

French energy giant EDF said it had taken ‘months of planning and close coordination’

Hinkley Point C power station in Bridgwater, Somerset

Hinkley Point C power station in Bridgwater, Somerset(Image: Hinkley Point C)

A huge crane has installed the second reactor at Hinkley Point C nuclear power station in a milestone described as “tremendous” by EDF.

The reactor was shipped from from France to Avonmouth Docks in Bristol before arriving in Somerset by barge earlier this year, with the final four miles to the Bridgwater site on a transporter.

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Now French-owned energy giant EDF says it has used a crane – named ‘Big Carl’ – to lift the 500-tonne cylinder into place before its precision installation inside the reactor building.

Simon Parsons, Hinkley Point C’s delivery director, said: “This marks a tremendous achievement by the entire team and one that has taken months of planning and close coordination between the 10 main contractors involved.”

Once inside the reactor building, the 13-metre-long vessel was lifted and rotated into a vertical position by the large internal crane and lowered onto a support ring with just 40mm clearance on either side.

Mr Parsons said Hinkley had not used a “cut and paste” approach but had taken lessons from the first reactor’s installation in 2023 to save time, money and disruption to the site.

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“Importantly, we are also applying those lessons to put Unit 2 well ahead of the first unit’s position at the equivalent stage, with more materials in place and more work achieved,” he said.

The Unit 2 reactor building is further ahead than at the same stage for Unit 1, EDF said, with more equipment installed, as well as more structural steel work and the outer containment layer already in place.

Big Carl lifts Hinkley Point C's second nuclear reactor into place

Big Carl lifts Hinkley Point C’s second nuclear reactor into place(Image: Hinkley Point C)

The reactor pressure vessel uses nuclear fission to make heat and steam for the world’s largest turbines, the Arabelle.

The announcement comes just months after it was revealed Britain’s first new nuclear station in a generation would face further delays at a cost of some €2.5bn to EDF, which is responsible for the project.

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Hinkley Point C is set to provide six million UK homes with zero-carbon electricity when it is up and running but the project has been plagued by cost overruns and delays since it received government approval in 2016.

EDF said in February the first reactor at Hinkley Point C would start operating in 2030 – a year later than expected and nearly 13 years since work began on the scheme.

The delay is expected to take the cost of the project up to £35bn – far more than the original estimate of £18bn when the scheme was green lit. But, in reality, the final price tag could be far higher once inflation is considered as the French-owned energy firm has outlined its estimates in 2015 prices.

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Stocks to Watch: Nvidia, Qualcomm, easyJet

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at a conference today

Stocks to Watch: Nvidia, Qualcomm, easyJet

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