Business
Fertilizer Prices Surge Ahead Of A Critical Planting Season
Egilshay/iStock via Getty Images
By Debbie Carlson
As grain farmers prepare for spring planting, any optimism for the coming season is being tempered by the economic reality that they may face another money-losing year. This was looking to be the case even before the conflict began in Iran, which triggered a surge in fertilizer prices.
Input costs skyrocketed in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and remain elevated, while commodity prices sit under production costs. The American Farm Bureau says many row-crop farmers are looking at four or five straight years of operational losses, even after accounting for crop insurance payments and ad-hoc assistance.
Philip Nelson, a fourth-generation farmer in LaSalle County, Illinois, who was recently elected as Illinois Farm Bureau president, says the profits farmers made when crop prices were high a few years ago have eroded and balance sheets are tight.
“If you adjust for inflation, we’ve got the same commodity prices we had in 1974, and at the same time, the input costs have quadrupled,” Nelson says.
Input costs aren’t the only issue clouding farmers’ outlooks for spring planting. Last year, the U.S. harvested a record corn crop of roughly 18 billion bushels, and that heavy supply continues to weigh on the market, says Sean Lusk, vice president, commercial hedging division for Walsh Trading. In addition, the outlook for soybeans remains mixed as farmers wait on the Trump administration to decide on a potential expansion of the biomass-based diesel program that could offset some of the lost export market share to China amid recent trade tensions.
In a challenging year, risk management tools and fine-tuning marketing plans take on added importance.
Shifting Farmer Sentiment
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer weakened in December, reflecting farmers’ declining long-term outlook about U.S. soybean export prospects as competition from Brazil increases. More recently, the focus has shifted to tensions between current conditions and future expectations, with farmers more optimistic about the former than the latter.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service forecasts net farm income to fall by 2.6% year-over-year in inflation-adjusted terms. The decline is mitigated in part by the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program and the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, USDA’s aid packages for farmers to offset losses because of the trade environment. However, the American Farm Bureau says most producers likely will still lose money.
University of Illinois agricultural researchers forecast crop prices to be marginally higher in 2026. As of early March, CME Group September 2026 Corn and Soybean futures are trading around $4.55 and $11.32 per bushel, respectively.
Price gains compared to last year will likely be offset by small increases in overall costs with yields at trend levels. Break-even prices to cover all costs without government support are in the $4.70-$4.90 range for corn and $10.80-$11.25 range for soybeans, close to or above current market prices and pricing opportunities for the 2026 crop.
David Iserman, a fifth-generation farmer based in Streator, Illinois, is sanguine about the growing season, based on those figures. “We’re definitely either breaking even, if we’re lucky, or losing money,” he says.
Cost-Cutting Measures
Annual inputs, such as seed, fertilizer and chemicals, are higher than last year. Corn consumes more inputs than soybeans, and that may factor into what U.S. farmers plant this spring – though markets won’t know for sure until the 2026 Prospective Plantings report is released on March 31. However, many farmers typically still stick with a traditional 50/50 corn and soybean rotation for agronomic reasons, which is what Iserman and Nelson plan to do.
Both producers have experienced lean times before and are looking at ways to cut costs. Iserman says fertilizer is his number one cost. He practices no-till farming on his soybeans and strip-till for corn. In strip-till farming, producers till a narrow strip of soil for fertilizer on the corn, which minimizes loss.
Iserman may tweak how much he uses and is studying the cost, using software to gauge his returns on his fertilizer use.
“We’re looking at all of our fertilizer inputs from the standpoint of not yield, but profit. For every dollar I put in, I want to get $1 back. I don’t care about winning a yield contest. I care about return,” he says.
Nelson also says he might cut back slightly on fertilizer use because he has built it up in the soil, giving him an option to cut costs.
Fertilizer Prices Stay High
Fertilizer remains the most volatile and significant non-land cost, often accounting for 20% to 30% of total production expenses, according to USDA data.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, says prices remain significantly higher than a year ago. In early 2026, a barge of urea at the port of New Orleans traded around $450 per ton, compared to $389 per ton in early 2025. Nitrogen prices are also higher versus a year ago.
Three global factors drive this inflation, Linville says. China, a major global supplier, has indicated it may not export urea until August 2026, removing millions of tons from the global market. In Europe, persistent high natural gas costs have limited nitrogen production to about 75% of normal since the second half of 2022 because of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point through which three of the top 10 urea exporters must ship their product. As of early March, the Strait of Hormuz is facing a blockade.
To better understand fertilizer costs, some farmers look at the corn-urea and soybean-urea ratio. These ratios position fertilizer costs within the context of crop costs, calculating how many bushels of grain are required to purchase one ton of nutrients.
A lower ratio signals a more favorable time to lock in costs. Currently, with low corn prices and high urea prices, the corn-urea ratio sits near 87 to 90 bushels per ton, a five-year high. To manage this, some farmers are using CME Group’s 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures contract. Launched last year, this tool allows individual producers to hedge their fertilizer risk in increments more suited to their actual field needs, and options can help limit price risk to the upside. While fertilizer costs were elevated in January, those levels now appear relatively attractive by comparison.
A Changing Approach
“Frankly speaking, we don’t sell all of our grain in one decision. We should be looking at doing the same thing with fertilizer,” Linville says.
He notes that traditionally farmers have looked at their fertilizer purchases annually, but watching prices throughout the year may help them make smarter operational decisions.
Farmers interested in adding the fertilizer ratios as part of their risk management toolkit can start by talking to their local grain elevator, which may give them data stretching back a few years to help them plot trends, he says. With this information, farmers may be able to act on price changes and lock in better prices.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $5,052.15 per ounce, by 1:44 p.m. ET (1744 GMT), and was down over 2% for the week so far.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.3% lower at $5,061.70.
“While the market remains strongly bullish gold long term on asset allocation drivers, bullion is grinding towards lows since the Iran conflict started with the dollar at nearly four-month highs,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
The U.S. dollar was on course for a weekly rise, making greenback-priced bullion less affordable for other currency holders.
Commerzbank in a note said expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy are the main reason why the price of gold has come under pressure.
While gold is prized as a traditional hedge against inflation and periods of uncertainty, elevated rates typically curb its appeal by increasing the cost of holding bullion. Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in January, which together with continued strength in underlying inflation and the war in the Middle East bolstered economists’ views that the Federal Reserve would not resume cutting interest rates for some time.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil.
Oil prices dipped but were on track for weekly gains as Gulf disruptions due to the conflict broadly persisted.
Elsewhere, resumption of some flights from Dubai has allowed gold flows from this major global trading hub to restart partially this week, three sources told Reuters.
Among other metals, spot silver lost 3.3% to $81.00.
Platinum fell 4% to $2,047.20 and palladium shed 2.5% to $1,569.00. The sister metals are on track to post weekly losses.
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Business
Global crude oil prices may hit USD 120/barrel in short term, USD 150 if gulf war extends over a month: Kotak’s Chainwala
“Near-term crude prices are likely to move in the USD 85-120 range for WTI and USD 90-125 for Brent. If the conflict escalates and supply disruptions persist for several weeks, prices could rise even further, possibly approaching USD 150 per barrel. But in the short term, USD 120 is more likely,” Chainwala said, emphasizing the role of supply disruptions in pushing crude markets higher.
She explained that the ongoing turbulence in the Strait of Hormuz and the state of Hormuz situation has already caused losses of approximately 10-12 million barrels per day.
“This is a significant disruption, not a perceived risk. Earlier this year, the market was facing a glut of 4-5 million barrels per day, but the current losses are offsetting that surplus and pushing the market toward a deficit,” she said.
Chainwala added that emergency reserves, including the International Energy Agency’s 400-million-barrel release, would only cover about 20 days of lost supply, which would be insufficient if the disruption continues for an extended period.
“Any prolonged disruption through this trade will be bullish for crude oil and negative for other commodities, as it ignites inflation concerns and could delay interest rate cuts,” he noted.
She also addressed potential price corrections. “If the situation de-escalates, the geopolitical premium built into oil prices would vanish. Prices could fall sharply to USD 55-65 per barrel. Before the disruption, oil markets were already bearish due to macroeconomic concerns and a supply glut,” she said.On regional flows, she said the Strait of Hormuz is currently allowing only limited passage.
“Very few barrels are passing through Hormuz — around 2-3 million barrels per day, compared to normal flows of about 20 million barrels per day. Certain countries are receiving preferential access, but overall, the route remains highly restricted,” Chainwala added.
She also discussed demand-side factors, highlighting that China, a major importer of crude, has set a modest growth target of 4.5-5 percent this year with no major stimulus, which may limit sustained price pressure. Seasonal demand during travel months in May and June may have some impact, but other factors are unlikely to hold crude prices at elevated levels for long.
Regarding the domestic market, Chainwala said, “On MCX, crude prices could rise 20-30 percent from current levels of around Rs 8,300, reaching Rs 10,500-11,000, depending on how long the disruption continues.”
She concluded by warning that prolonged conflict or significant escalation could push prices even further, but if negotiations or minor attacks continue without major disruption, the crude market is expected to remain volatile yet within a USD 85-120 range.
Business
Global Markets | European shares log second week of losses as Mideast war fuels inflation fears
The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 closed 0.5% lower. All major regional bourses were in the red, posting marginal weekly falls.
Industrial stocks were the biggest drags on the index, down 1.8%, with Siemens Energy down 5.7% and Rolls-Royce off 5.3%.
Miners experienced the biggest percentage loss, down 3.3%, as prices of silver tumbled over 3%, copper fell over 1% and gold prices also ticked lower.
Global markets extended declines this week as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran approached the two-week mark. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, prompting markets to brace for a drawn-out conflict and reassess interest-rate expectations as energy-driven inflation concerns resurfaced.
Pascal Koeppel, chief investment officer at Vontobel SFA Investment Management, said that both Iran and the U.S. had interests in stopping the war. Iran’s interest is in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, he said, while for the U.S. a priority is reining in mounting defence costs before the midterm elections in November.
“It’s short term in nature and the impact on inflation and rates is not as big as market fear. But at the moment, the fear is larger so the European markets are correcting,” he said. Markets have priced in one quarter-point interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank by the end of the year and see a nearly 75% chance of another similar-sized move, per data compiled by LSEG. This contrasts with expectations earlier in the year that a rate cut was coming.
Oil prices were about 1% higher on Friday, as it became clear that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Energy stocks far outperformed others this week with a gain of nearly 5%. Economically sensitive banks fell again, dropping 1.2%. Standard Chartered and HSBC, the two global banks most exposed to the war with Iran according to Reuters analysis, extended their monthly declines to over 15% each. Data showed harmonised inflation in France rose 1.1% year-on-year in February, while the British economy grew by 0.2% in the three months to January, below expectations. Among individual moves, BE Semiconductor Industries shares jumped 5.6% after the chip-equipment maker fielded takeover interest, Reuters reported. Berkeley Group cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East was weighing on risk sentiment, while reaffirming its annual profit outlook, sending shares of the home builder 1.5% lower.
Zalando climbed about 7% after Bernstein upgraded the online fashion retailer to “market perform” from “underperform.”
Getty Images
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By Jay Jacobs & Robbie Mitchnick
What is cryptocurrency staking?
Cryptocurrency staking is a way for people to help maintain a blockchain network and potentially earn rewards for doing so. Staking plays a crucial role in how transactions
I’ve been researching companies in-depth for over a decade, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stocks, which I believe could help me provide useful content for readers. After writing my own blog for about 3 years, I decided to switch to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where I researched hundreds of different companies so far. I would say my favorite type of company to cover are metals and mining stocks, but I am comfortable with several other industries, such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs and utilities.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in CUBE over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Those who have been waiting for Randy Orton to turn heel, the term used for villains in the WWE, got what they have been waiting for.
On the March 13 edition of Friday Night SmackDown, Orton turned heel and viciously attacked Cody Rhodes.
Randy Orton Turns Heel
The heel turn took place during the contract signing between Orton and Rhodes. The two WWE superstars are set to compete in a match for the Undisputed WWE Championship at WrestleMania 42 next month.
While initially looking like they were to remain friends despite going against one another, Orton soon changed his tune and attacked Rhodes.
Orton hit his old friend with the steel steps at some point, busting the latter wide open. While officials came out to try and control the situation, Orton eventually had the opportunity to hit Rhodes with the steel chair while his head was lying against the steel steps.
Will Orton Get His 15th World Championship?
Ever since it became clear that it would be Rhodes versus Orton for WrestleMania 42, fans have been speculating which of the two will turn heel.
Leading up to the March 13 edition of SmackDown, both characters have been faces, the term used for the good guys in wrestling.
It should be noted that despite the vicious attack, the live crowd was clearly behind Orton, chanting his name despite him clearly becoming the bad guy.
Should Orton win at WrestleMania 42, it will be his 15th world championship with WWE. He’s currently tied at 14 world title reigns with Paul “Triple H” Levesque.
Originally published on sportsworldnews.com
Nishimura Mika, Si-Bone director, sells $56k in SIBN stock
The bonds will offer yields ranging from 8.70% to 9.10%, with tenure options of 24, 36, 60, and 72 months available.
The flagship company of Kerala-based Muthoot Pappachan Group opened the issue for subscription on Friday. The offer will remain open until March 23.
Get ready for an exciting investment opportunity! Muthoot FinCorp is rolling out a bond issue, aiming to gather as much as ₹600 crore to bolster business expansion and fulfill corporate goals. With appealing yields and flexible tenure options, these bonds are perfect for retail investors looking to dive in before March 23.
The base issue size is ₹200 crore, with a greenshoe option to retain oversubscription of up to ₹400 crore, the company said.
“This offering is intended to support onward lending and financing activities, repay/prepay interest and principal on existing debt, and meet general corporate needs,” the company said.
The bonds are rated ‘AA-/positive’ by Crisil Ratings and ‘AA/stable’ by Brickwork Ratings India, indicating a high degree of safety for the timely servicing of financial obligations.
Muthoot FinCorp, which is not publicly listed, had standalone assets under management of ₹48,122 crore at the end of December, up 63% from the same period a year earlier, driven largely by demand for gold loans.
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