Business
Fertilizer Prices Surge Ahead Of A Critical Planting Season
Egilshay/iStock via Getty Images
By Debbie Carlson
As grain farmers prepare for spring planting, any optimism for the coming season is being tempered by the economic reality that they may face another money-losing year. This was looking to be the case even before the conflict began in Iran, which triggered a surge in fertilizer prices.
Input costs skyrocketed in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and remain elevated, while commodity prices sit under production costs. The American Farm Bureau says many row-crop farmers are looking at four or five straight years of operational losses, even after accounting for crop insurance payments and ad-hoc assistance.
Philip Nelson, a fourth-generation farmer in LaSalle County, Illinois, who was recently elected as Illinois Farm Bureau president, says the profits farmers made when crop prices were high a few years ago have eroded and balance sheets are tight.
“If you adjust for inflation, we’ve got the same commodity prices we had in 1974, and at the same time, the input costs have quadrupled,” Nelson says.
Input costs aren’t the only issue clouding farmers’ outlooks for spring planting. Last year, the U.S. harvested a record corn crop of roughly 18 billion bushels, and that heavy supply continues to weigh on the market, says Sean Lusk, vice president, commercial hedging division for Walsh Trading. In addition, the outlook for soybeans remains mixed as farmers wait on the Trump administration to decide on a potential expansion of the biomass-based diesel program that could offset some of the lost export market share to China amid recent trade tensions.
In a challenging year, risk management tools and fine-tuning marketing plans take on added importance.
Shifting Farmer Sentiment
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer weakened in December, reflecting farmers’ declining long-term outlook about U.S. soybean export prospects as competition from Brazil increases. More recently, the focus has shifted to tensions between current conditions and future expectations, with farmers more optimistic about the former than the latter.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service forecasts net farm income to fall by 2.6% year-over-year in inflation-adjusted terms. The decline is mitigated in part by the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program and the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, USDA’s aid packages for farmers to offset losses because of the trade environment. However, the American Farm Bureau says most producers likely will still lose money.
University of Illinois agricultural researchers forecast crop prices to be marginally higher in 2026. As of early March, CME Group September 2026 Corn and Soybean futures are trading around $4.55 and $11.32 per bushel, respectively.
Price gains compared to last year will likely be offset by small increases in overall costs with yields at trend levels. Break-even prices to cover all costs without government support are in the $4.70-$4.90 range for corn and $10.80-$11.25 range for soybeans, close to or above current market prices and pricing opportunities for the 2026 crop.
David Iserman, a fifth-generation farmer based in Streator, Illinois, is sanguine about the growing season, based on those figures. “We’re definitely either breaking even, if we’re lucky, or losing money,” he says.
Cost-Cutting Measures
Annual inputs, such as seed, fertilizer and chemicals, are higher than last year. Corn consumes more inputs than soybeans, and that may factor into what U.S. farmers plant this spring – though markets won’t know for sure until the 2026 Prospective Plantings report is released on March 31. However, many farmers typically still stick with a traditional 50/50 corn and soybean rotation for agronomic reasons, which is what Iserman and Nelson plan to do.
Both producers have experienced lean times before and are looking at ways to cut costs. Iserman says fertilizer is his number one cost. He practices no-till farming on his soybeans and strip-till for corn. In strip-till farming, producers till a narrow strip of soil for fertilizer on the corn, which minimizes loss.
Iserman may tweak how much he uses and is studying the cost, using software to gauge his returns on his fertilizer use.
“We’re looking at all of our fertilizer inputs from the standpoint of not yield, but profit. For every dollar I put in, I want to get $1 back. I don’t care about winning a yield contest. I care about return,” he says.
Nelson also says he might cut back slightly on fertilizer use because he has built it up in the soil, giving him an option to cut costs.
Fertilizer Prices Stay High
Fertilizer remains the most volatile and significant non-land cost, often accounting for 20% to 30% of total production expenses, according to USDA data.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, says prices remain significantly higher than a year ago. In early 2026, a barge of urea at the port of New Orleans traded around $450 per ton, compared to $389 per ton in early 2025. Nitrogen prices are also higher versus a year ago.
Three global factors drive this inflation, Linville says. China, a major global supplier, has indicated it may not export urea until August 2026, removing millions of tons from the global market. In Europe, persistent high natural gas costs have limited nitrogen production to about 75% of normal since the second half of 2022 because of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point through which three of the top 10 urea exporters must ship their product. As of early March, the Strait of Hormuz is facing a blockade.
To better understand fertilizer costs, some farmers look at the corn-urea and soybean-urea ratio. These ratios position fertilizer costs within the context of crop costs, calculating how many bushels of grain are required to purchase one ton of nutrients.
A lower ratio signals a more favorable time to lock in costs. Currently, with low corn prices and high urea prices, the corn-urea ratio sits near 87 to 90 bushels per ton, a five-year high. To manage this, some farmers are using CME Group’s 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures contract. Launched last year, this tool allows individual producers to hedge their fertilizer risk in increments more suited to their actual field needs, and options can help limit price risk to the upside. While fertilizer costs were elevated in January, those levels now appear relatively attractive by comparison.
A Changing Approach
“Frankly speaking, we don’t sell all of our grain in one decision. We should be looking at doing the same thing with fertilizer,” Linville says.
He notes that traditionally farmers have looked at their fertilizer purchases annually, but watching prices throughout the year may help them make smarter operational decisions.
Farmers interested in adding the fertilizer ratios as part of their risk management toolkit can start by talking to their local grain elevator, which may give them data stretching back a few years to help them plot trends, he says. With this information, farmers may be able to act on price changes and lock in better prices.
Business
Q4 impact: Bank stocks slump up to 32% in 3 months, but brokerages bet on SBI, HDFC Bank, 6 more stocks. Check why
The benchmark index declined 16% during the period, but several banking names fared significantly worse. IDFC First Bank emerged as the biggest laggard, plunging 32%, followed by HDFC Bank, which fell 27%. YES Bank dropped 22%, while PSU lenders such as Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda (BoB) declined 20% each. Among private peers, Kotak Mahindra Bank also slipped 20%, highlighting broad-based weakness across the sector.
Mid-tier and smaller lenders were not spared either. Punjab National Bank (PNB) fell 19%, while IndusInd Bank and AU Small Finance Bank declined 16% each. Even relatively resilient names like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank dropped 12% and 8%, respectively. Federal Bank managed to limit losses to 3%, while State Bank of India stood out as the most defensive large-cap, declining just 1%.
The underperformance comes amid persistent FII selling, which has disproportionately impacted financials due to their heavy weightage in benchmark indices. At the same time, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has triggered a spike in crude oil prices, raising concerns over inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts by global central banks.
Higher energy prices and sticky inflation expectations have clouded the outlook for interest rate cycles, which in turn has weighed on banking stocks. Elevated bond yields and tightening liquidity conditions have further dampened sentiment towards the sector, even as underlying fundamentals such as asset quality and credit growth remain relatively stable.
Uncovering the underperformance, Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the Street remains worried about future profitability of the sector rather than current business growth. In his view, investors are focusing on rising funding costs.
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“Smaller private banks such as IDFC First Bank, Bandhan Bank and RBL Bank have increased lending rates because deposits are becoming expensive and they are relying more on bulk deposits and certificates of deposit for funding. This means the cost of raising money is rising faster than loan yields, which may put pressure on margins in coming quarters,” Tiwari said.
Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) most recent diktat to lenders to limit their net open positions in INR to $100 million at the end of each business day has had an unsettling near-term impact.
“RBI’s $100 million cap on forex positions may reduce treasury flexibility and lead to temporary mark-to-market losses, affecting short-term treasury income for some banks,” the Bonanza analyst said.
Apart from this, the Iran-Israel war has pushed back hopes of any rate cut by global central banks this year. The US Federal Reserve, in its March monetary policy, indicated a single 25 bps cut later this year, compared with earlier expectations of a couple of revisions.
RBI, which will begin its three-day monetary policy meeting starting April 6, is also expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%.
“The market is also reducing expectations of an early rate cut by RBI because inflation risk has increased due to rising global energy prices and war-related uncertainty. If crude oil remains high, inflation and CAD may rise, keeping rates elevated for longer,” Tiwari added.
Q4 expectations and outlook
With nearly a week to go before the earnings season starts, investor expectations will now rest on the results from these banks.
Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects momentum to remain robust in bank counters, supported by liquidity buffers and consumption-led recovery following GST rationalisation.
For 4QFY26E, MOFSL estimates net interest income (NII) for its coverage universe to improve 7.4% YoY and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter. The overall YoY growth in profit after tax (PAT) is seen at 2.1%, while a sequential decline of 5.3% is expected. PAT for MOFSL’s coverage could grow 7% YoY and 0.7% QoQ.
Net interest margins (NIMs) outcome in 4Q is expected to be divergent, with large private banks like ICICI and HDFC expected to report flat margins, while Axis and Kotak could report a decline. Meanwhile, mid-sized banks are better placed, with AU Small Finance Bank, Bandhan Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank and IDFC First Bank expected to report NIM expansion.
Systematic credit growth for the sector in the January-March quarter stood at 14% (13% YTD), MOFSL said, pegging system-wide deposit growth at 10.8% year-on-year, though faster credit growth has led to a spike in the CD ratio to 83%.
Seasonally a strong quarter, Q4 this time is expected to be softer due to ongoing uncertainty, Elara Capital said in a note. Banks are likely to report mixed performance with a cautious tone, making guidance for H1FY27 critical, it said.
Key trends include steady loan and deposit growth, margin pressure from rising funding costs, weaker treasury income impacting profitability, and seasonally lower credit costs offering some support.
“Overall, while Q4 may be mixed, FY27 outlook will be closely watched, with potential downward earnings revisions. Among lenders, ICICI Bank, SBI and AU Small Finance Bank are preferred picks,” the brokerage said.
Stocks to buy
Among banks, MOFSL has picked two Nifty stocks, SBI and ICICI Bank.
Elara Capital’s recommendations:
Buy HDFC Bank | Target: Rs 1,147 | Upside: 57%
Buy ICICI Bank | Target: Rs 1,783 | Upside: 48%
Buy Axis Bank | Target: Rs 1,555 | Upside: 34%
Buy Kotak Bank | Target: Rs 511 | Upside: 45%
Buy City Union Bank | Target: Rs 335 | Upside: 40%
Buy DCB Bank | Target: Rs 214 | Upside: 35%
Buy Bandhan Bank | Target: Rs 186 | Upside: 32%
Buy Ujjivan | Target: Rs 72 | Upside: 43%
Buy Equitas | Target: Rs 83 | Upside: 80%
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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A Gulfstream G-IV private jet on approach to Washington’s Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, June 12, 2024.
J. David Ake | Getty Images
As the Iran war pushes jet fuel prices higher, well-heeled travelers are facing hefty surcharges to fly private, sometimes on flights booked months prior, charter brokers and aviation insiders told CNBC.
Vimana Private Jets CEO Ameerh Naran said the firm recently booked a $520,000 flight from Dubai to London on a Boeing business jet for a client. That same trip cost the client $400,000 in 2023. The difference was entirely due to jet fuel prices — which now average about $4.65 a gallon globally — Naran said.
It’s yet another ripple in the recent disruptions to air travel.
More customers turned to private air travel during the pandemic to avoid crowds. The option remains popular and has become more important to the aviation sector as wealthier households prop up spending in travel and other sectors.
These deep-pocketed travelers are less likely to get priced out as airfares rise, but they have to navigate unexpected fees as brokers and charters differ on how they pass along fuel costs. Jet fuel prices in major U.S. cities were up more than 80% last month, according to Airlines for America, an industry group, citing Argus data.
Jet charter brokers like Vimana arrange flights with jet operators, which own the planes and buy fuel, on behalf of passengers. Naran said Vimana does not renegotiate contracts and does not reprice flights, but that charter prices have surged quickly.
He advised travelers to book sooner than later, saying any price hikes are likely to be sticky even if the Iran war ends soon.
Larger jet operators are slower to pass along fuel costs to passengers as they buy fuel in bulk and want to avoid alienating customers, according to Naran. However, operators will likely have to pay more at the pump when they replenish their supplies, and some are taking losses by not repricing flights, he said.
“There’s a long-term effect, because a lot of companies now will be making losses,” he said. “They’re not going to renegotiate the contract because they don’t want to spoil the relationship with the client, but if they’re making a loss today, they’ve got to recoup it.”
Jet charter prices have increased by 5% to 15% on average, with some rising by as much as 20%, since the Iran conflict began, according to charter broker Amalfi Jets’ database.
Passing costs to passengers
While some operators have raised prices on flights booked months ago and scheduled to fly in the coming weeks, Amalfi Jets CEO Kolin Jones said his company is eating the surcharges for jet card customers.
Some operators are also passing along increased war risk premiums for flights in the Gulf, though Amalfi Jets has only encountered this with three flights so far, he said. The charges added about $8,000 to $10,000 per trip, Jones said.
Gregg Brunson-Pitts of charter broker Advanced Aviation Team said that while he believes operators should honor prices for previously booked flights, repricing is a risk.
In some cases, the fees are relatively insignificant, he said, like a $1,500 surcharge for a flight from Palm Beach, Florida, to Phoenix, Arizona, on a Bombardier Challenger 300, for example. On the other hand, a round trip on a Gulfstream from the East Coast to Asia could incur $20,000 in surcharges for every dollar increase in fuel prices per gallon, he said.
Some long-haul trips have all-inclusive fuel pricing, Brunson-Pitts added.
Nearly all charter contracts include a fuel variable expense, allowing providers to charge more even if the flight was booked six months ago, according to Amanda Applegate, a partner at Soar Aviation Law.
Fractional jet owners, who share overhead costs in exchange for a set number of flight hours, typically pay an hourly rate on fuel that’s adjusted on a monthly or weekly basis. Even they may be on the hook for surcharges when fuel prices spike, Applegate said.
Private jet travelers are less price-sensitive than most flyers, and brokers told CNBC that they haven’t seen surcharges deter demand. Customers who only fly private once or twice a year for special occasions are most likely to get sticker shock, they said.
“Realistically, the individuals that are flying private, the need and want and reason of flying private does outweigh cost,” Jones said. “If you’re going to spend $25,000 on a private jet, and let’s say the cost is now $30,000, that doesn’t necessarily price people out.”
Brokers are also working to mitigate costs by refueling in countries where fuel is cheaper, even if it means additional flight time, Jones said.
Demand for private flying
So far, the business jet market is holding steady, with flights up 5% year over year in the week through March 22, according to aviation data and consultancy firm WingX.
Flexjet global CEO Andrew Collins said jet utilization by the company’s fractional aircraft owners is up 15% over last year. Clients are generally invoiced after they fly, and the company resets fuel prices toward the end of the month, taking an average of the month, he said.
Even as oil prices surge, travelers looking to avoid long lines at airports may be propping up demand for private charters.
Recent government shutdowns — a major disruption last fall and now a partial, ongoing shutdown — have left key aviation workers without pay and slowed air travel.
Most recently, that has led to hourslong lines at major U.S. airports like those serving Houston and New York as Transportation Security Administration officers called out of work while they weren’t receiving regular pay.
In the five weeks after the partial government shutdown began on Feb. 14, business jet departures increased year over year at most metropolitan airports, WingX reported.
Flexjet’s Collins said the company saw an increase in what he called “pop-up flights,” or reservations that guaranteed an aircraft within 10 hours of departure, during the recent airport chaos.
That said, Amalfi’s Jones said he has noticed some clients opting to fly on smaller aircraft to spend less.
“Some of them are very upset about that, like, ‘Hey, I used to fly on Citation Xs. Pricing is so expensive, and now I’m flying on a Hawker 800,’” Jones said. “It’s like, well, you’re still flying private. You’re going to get there maybe three minutes slower than the bigger airplane. But all in all, it’s the same kind of level of experience.”
Brunson-Pitts encouraged flyers to confirm with their broker whether they can expect a fuel surcharge or an invoice after their trip. Still, he said he expects the situation to be temporary, comparing it to oil’s rapid surge and subsequent crash from 2007 through 2008.
“This too shall pass,” he said. “That doesn’t mean it’s not painful, but the price of jet fuel rises and then it falls again.”
Samsung’s next-generation book-style foldable, the Galaxy Z Fold 8, is expected to launch in July 2026 during the company’s traditional summer Galaxy Unpacked event, with pre-orders likely opening the same day and general availability following about two weeks later, according to multiple supply chain reports and analyst projections.
The anticipated July timing continues Samsung’s established pattern for its premium foldables. The Galaxy Z Fold 7 launched on July 9, 2025, and the Fold 6 on July 10, 2024. Industry insiders and leakers, including reliable voices such as Ice Universe, point to a similar window in 2026, most likely the second week of July for the official unveiling, with retail sales commencing around July 22 or 24.
This year’s event is shaping up to be particularly significant, as Samsung is reportedly preparing not only the standard Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8 but also a new “Wide” variant of the Fold 8. The wider model, sometimes referred to as the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide, is designed with a more expansive aspect ratio to better compete with upcoming foldable devices from rivals, including Apple’s anticipated first foldable iPhone. Carrier database listings and regulatory filings have already confirmed multiple model numbers, indicating all three devices are on track for a coordinated summer launch in the third quarter.
Expected Design and Display Improvements
Early leaks suggest the Galaxy Z Fold 8 will focus heavily on refining the foldable experience rather than overhauling the core form factor. The inner folding display is expected to measure approximately 8 inches, while the cover screen remains around 6.5 inches, both supporting smooth 120Hz refresh rates on Dynamic AMOLED panels.
A major highlight in rumors is significant progress on the persistent crease issue. Samsung is reportedly testing dual-layer ultra-thin glass combined with a laser-drilled metal support plate, aiming for a near-invisible crease when the device is unfolded. The overall chassis is expected to be thinner and lighter than previous generations, with some projections placing the weight as low as 200 grams in certain configurations.
Durability enhancements are another key theme. Stronger hinge mechanisms and improved water and dust resistance ratings are anticipated, addressing long-standing consumer feedback about foldable reliability.
Performance, Battery and Camera Upgrades
Under the hood, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is widely tipped to feature Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 (or a Galaxy-optimized variant), paired with generous RAM options of 12GB or 16GB and storage tiers ranging from 256GB to 1TB. Advanced vapor chamber cooling is expected to keep temperatures in check during demanding tasks such as gaming or multitasking across the large inner display.
Battery capacity is another area of focus, with leaks pointing to a 5,000mAh cell — a notable increase that could deliver substantially better endurance, especially when using the unfolded screen. Faster charging speeds, potentially up to 45W wired, are also rumored, along with possible improvements in wireless charging.
On the camera front, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 could see a significant leap with a 200-megapixel main sensor, supported by a 50-megapixel ultrawide lens and a 10-megapixel telephoto with 3x optical zoom. These upgrades would position the foldable closer to Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S series in photography capabilities, enhancing its appeal for content creators who value the large unfolded canvas for editing and previewing.
Software support is expected to include One UI 9 based on the latest Android version, with Samsung promising extended years of OS and security updates to match or exceed competitors in the premium segment.
Pricing and Market Strategy
Pricing is projected to remain largely consistent with recent generations, starting around $1,999 in the United States for the base model. However, some analysts speculate a modest increase in certain markets due to enhanced materials and components. The new Wide variant may carry a premium, though exact figures have not yet surfaced.
Samsung’s decision to launch both the standard Fold 8 and the wider model simultaneously appears aimed at broadening appeal and preempting competition from Apple’s rumored foldable iPhone, expected later in 2026 or 2027. By offering different screen proportions, Samsung hopes to capture users who prefer a more tablet-like experience when unfolded or a narrower profile when folded.
Production plans reportedly prioritize the Galaxy Z Fold 8, with estimates of 3.5 million units prepared ahead of launch compared to 3 million for the Flip 8, reflecting stronger expected demand for the book-style design.
Broader Context in Samsung’s Foldable Roadmap
The 2026 foldable lineup underscores Samsung’s continued dominance in the category it helped popularize. Since introducing the original Galaxy Fold in 2019, the company has iterated steadily, improving hinge durability, display quality and software optimization with each generation.
This year’s additions, including the Wide model, signal an aggressive push to expand the foldable market beyond early adopters. Features such as enhanced S Pen support (rumored to return in improved form), better multitasking and AI integrations via Galaxy AI are expected to make the devices more productive and appealing for professional users.
Global availability is anticipated shortly after the Unpacked event, with pre-orders likely including bundled accessories, trade-in deals and carrier financing options to lower the entry barrier for interested buyers.
As the July launch window approaches, more concrete details are expected through official teasers, regulatory certifications and hands-on leaks. In the meantime, speculation continues to build around how the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and its Wide sibling will differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive foldable landscape.
For consumers considering a foldable purchase in 2026, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 appears poised to deliver meaningful refinements in nearly every area — from the display crease to battery life and photography — while maintaining the premium price point that has defined the series.
Samsung has not yet confirmed any specifics, and all details remain subject to change until the official unveiling. Enthusiasts and analysts alike will be watching closely as the company prepares what could be one of its most ambitious foldable lineups to date.
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