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Q4 impact: Bank stocks slump up to 32% in 3 months, but brokerages bet on SBI, HDFC Bank, 6 more stocks. Check why

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Q4 impact: Bank stocks slump up to 32% in 3 months, but brokerages bet on SBI, HDFC Bank, 6 more stocks. Check why
Banking stocks have come under sharp pressure over the past three months, with most lenders underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50 amid a challenging macro backdrop marked by sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a surge in energy prices.

The benchmark index declined 16% during the period, but several banking names fared significantly worse. IDFC First Bank emerged as the biggest laggard, plunging 32%, followed by HDFC Bank, which fell 27%. YES Bank dropped 22%, while PSU lenders such as Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda (BoB) declined 20% each. Among private peers, Kotak Mahindra Bank also slipped 20%, highlighting broad-based weakness across the sector.

Mid-tier and smaller lenders were not spared either. Punjab National Bank (PNB) fell 19%, while IndusInd Bank and AU Small Finance Bank declined 16% each. Even relatively resilient names like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank dropped 12% and 8%, respectively. Federal Bank managed to limit losses to 3%, while State Bank of India stood out as the most defensive large-cap, declining just 1%.

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The underperformance comes amid persistent FII selling, which has disproportionately impacted financials due to their heavy weightage in benchmark indices. At the same time, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has triggered a spike in crude oil prices, raising concerns over inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts by global central banks.

Higher energy prices and sticky inflation expectations have clouded the outlook for interest rate cycles, which in turn has weighed on banking stocks. Elevated bond yields and tightening liquidity conditions have further dampened sentiment towards the sector, even as underlying fundamentals such as asset quality and credit growth remain relatively stable.
Uncovering the underperformance, Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the Street remains worried about future profitability of the sector rather than current business growth. In his view, investors are focusing on rising funding costs.
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“Smaller private banks such as IDFC First Bank, Bandhan Bank and RBL Bank have increased lending rates because deposits are becoming expensive and they are relying more on bulk deposits and certificates of deposit for funding. This means the cost of raising money is rising faster than loan yields, which may put pressure on margins in coming quarters,” Tiwari said.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) most recent diktat to lenders to limit their net open positions in INR to $100 million at the end of each business day has had an unsettling near-term impact.

“RBI’s $100 million cap on forex positions may reduce treasury flexibility and lead to temporary mark-to-market losses, affecting short-term treasury income for some banks,” the Bonanza analyst said.

Apart from this, the Iran-Israel war has pushed back hopes of any rate cut by global central banks this year. The US Federal Reserve, in its March monetary policy, indicated a single 25 bps cut later this year, compared with earlier expectations of a couple of revisions.

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RBI, which will begin its three-day monetary policy meeting starting April 6, is also expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%.

“The market is also reducing expectations of an early rate cut by RBI because inflation risk has increased due to rising global energy prices and war-related uncertainty. If crude oil remains high, inflation and CAD may rise, keeping rates elevated for longer,” Tiwari added.

Q4 expectations and outlook

With nearly a week to go before the earnings season starts, investor expectations will now rest on the results from these banks.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects momentum to remain robust in bank counters, supported by liquidity buffers and consumption-led recovery following GST rationalisation.

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For 4QFY26E, MOFSL estimates net interest income (NII) for its coverage universe to improve 7.4% YoY and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter. The overall YoY growth in profit after tax (PAT) is seen at 2.1%, while a sequential decline of 5.3% is expected. PAT for MOFSL’s coverage could grow 7% YoY and 0.7% QoQ.

Net interest margins (NIMs) outcome in 4Q is expected to be divergent, with large private banks like ICICI and HDFC expected to report flat margins, while Axis and Kotak could report a decline. Meanwhile, mid-sized banks are better placed, with AU Small Finance Bank, Bandhan Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank and IDFC First Bank expected to report NIM expansion.

Systematic credit growth for the sector in the January-March quarter stood at 14% (13% YTD), MOFSL said, pegging system-wide deposit growth at 10.8% year-on-year, though faster credit growth has led to a spike in the CD ratio to 83%.

Seasonally a strong quarter, Q4 this time is expected to be softer due to ongoing uncertainty, Elara Capital said in a note. Banks are likely to report mixed performance with a cautious tone, making guidance for H1FY27 critical, it said.

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Key trends include steady loan and deposit growth, margin pressure from rising funding costs, weaker treasury income impacting profitability, and seasonally lower credit costs offering some support.

“Overall, while Q4 may be mixed, FY27 outlook will be closely watched, with potential downward earnings revisions. Among lenders, ICICI Bank, SBI and AU Small Finance Bank are preferred picks,” the brokerage said.

Stocks to buy

Among banks, MOFSL has picked two Nifty stocks, SBI and ICICI Bank.

Elara Capital’s recommendations:

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Buy HDFC Bank | Target: Rs 1,147 | Upside: 57%
Buy ICICI Bank | Target: Rs 1,783 | Upside: 48%
Buy Axis Bank | Target: Rs 1,555 | Upside: 34%
Buy Kotak Bank | Target: Rs 511 | Upside: 45%
Buy City Union Bank | Target: Rs 335 | Upside: 40%
Buy DCB Bank | Target: Rs 214 | Upside: 35%
Buy Bandhan Bank | Target: Rs 186 | Upside: 32%
Buy Ujjivan | Target: Rs 72 | Upside: 43%
Buy Equitas | Target: Rs 83 | Upside: 80%

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Safran: The Disconnect Between Fundamentals And Price (OTCMKTS:SAFRF)

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Safran: The Disconnect Between Fundamentals And Price (OTCMKTS:SAFRF)

This article was written by

Dhierin-Perkash Bechai is an aerospace, defense and airline analyst.
Dhierin runs the investing group The Aerospace Forum, whose goal is to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense and airline industry. With a background in aerospace engineering, he provides analysis of a complex industry with significant growth prospects, and offers context to developments as they occur, describing how they might affect investment theses. His investing ideas are driven by data informed analysis. The investing group also provides direct access to data analytics monitors.
Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Iran says it will not accept ’maximalist’ US demands as Pakistan pursues peace

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Trump says he canceled US negotiators’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, Fox News reports

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Record Field, Elite Stars & Historic Course

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Lionel Messi's Argentina recently defeated Italy 3-0 in the Finalissima.

LONDON — With just hours until the gun fires on Sunday, April 26, 2026, the 46th TCS London Marathon promises to be one of the largest and most spectacular editions yet, featuring a record-shattering field of more than 59,000 runners, elite athletes chasing world-class times on a famously fast course, and millions raised for charity across the globe.

Here are 10 essential things to know about this year’s race:

1. Date and Start Schedule The marathon takes place on Sunday, April 26. Elite wheelchair races for men and women begin at 8:50 a.m. BST, followed by the elite women’s race at 9:05 a.m. The elite men and first wave of mass participants start at 9:35 a.m., with subsequent waves released until around 11:30 a.m. Runners have until approximately 7 p.m. to finish within the eight-hour cutoff.

2. Iconic Point-to-Point Route The flat, fast 26.2-mile course starts in Blackheath and Greenwich, winds through six London boroughs, and finishes on The Mall in front of Buckingham Palace. Runners pass landmarks including the Cutty Sark, Tower Bridge at the halfway point, Canary Wharf, the London Eye, Big Ben and Houses of Parliament. With only 246 feet of elevation gain, it remains one of the quickest major marathon courses.

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3. Massive Record-Breaking Field More than 59,000 runners are expected on the start line after a staggering 1,133,813 ballot applications — a new world record. The event continues its reign as the largest marathon by finishers, topping last year’s mark of over 56,000 completers. Younger participants, especially women aged 18-29, make up a growing share.

4. Star-Studded Elite Fields Defending champion Sabastian Sawe of Kenya leads a deep men’s field that includes Jacob Kiplimo, Deresa Geleta, Tamirat Tola, Joshua Cheptegei and Geoffrey Kamworor. Pace groups aim for a sub-2:01 first half, putting the course record of 2:01:25 (Kelvin Kiptum, 2023) and even the world record in play under ideal conditions. Tigst Assefa returns in the women’s race among strong contenders.

5. One of the Abbott World Marathon Majors As the third Major of 2026, London offers runners a step toward the prestigious Six Star Finisher status. The event’s global prestige draws international talent and amateur runners seeking bucket-list glory on one of the world’s most scenic urban courses.

6. World’s Biggest One-Day Fundraising Event Runners are expected to shatter previous records for charity donations. Last year’s edition raised £87.3 million. Marie Curie serves as 2026 Charity of the Year, with thousands running for causes close to their hearts. The marathon consistently ranks as sport’s largest annual single-day fundraiser.

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7. Guinness World Record Attempts A record 76 participants will chase 73 different Guinness World Records on race day, adding extra spectacle to the event. From fastest costume finishes to unique challenges, these attempts highlight the marathon’s inclusive and fun spirit beyond elite competition.

8. How to Watch BBC One provides live coverage starting at 8:30 a.m. BST, shifting to BBC Two later in the afternoon, with full streaming on BBC iPlayer. International viewers can tune in via FloTrack in the U.S. and other broadcasters worldwide. Real-time tracking through the official app helps followers monitor loved ones.

9. Celebrities, Inspirational Stories and Diversity Dozens of celebrities and high-profile runners join the field, alongside hundreds of participants over age 70, including an 88-year-old man and 86-year-old woman. Heartwarming stories of personal triumph, charity runs and first-time marathoners dominate coverage, showcasing the event’s community focus.

10. Practical Details and Legacy Runners collect packs at the ExCeL London Running Show before Saturday’s deadline. The course is spectator-friendly with massive crowds expected. Post-race, the Mini London Marathon for young runners occurs the day before, and MyWay virtual options allow global participation. The 2027 ballot opens soon after.

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Weather forecasts suggest mild conditions ideal for fast times, though runners should prepare for variable British spring weather. Organizers emphasize hydration, pacing and enjoying the electric atmosphere created by Londoners lining the streets.

The London Marathon has evolved since its 1981 debut into a global phenomenon blending elite athletics, mass participation and philanthropy. Its flat terrain, vibrant support and iconic finish continue attracting record interest year after year.

For 2026, expectations run high for both elite performances and personal bests among the masses. Whether chasing victory, a Boston qualifier, a charity goal or simply the medal, participants will share in a uniquely British spectacle that unites the capital.

As the city prepares for one of its biggest annual events, the 2026 London Marathon stands ready to deliver drama, inspiration and unforgettable memories along 26.2 miles of London’s greatest sights.

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Palo Alto Networks: AI Means Business, And The Valuation Isn't Low Enough Yet

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Who Has Better Shot at 2026 World Cup Glory in Final Dance?

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Lionel Messi's Argentina recently defeated Italy 3-0 in the Finalissima.

MIAMI — As the 2026 FIFA World Cup draws near, the eternal debate between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo reaches its climax. The two icons, both chasing a record sixth appearance, stand on opposite ends of the contention spectrum: Messi with defending champions Argentina viewed as top contenders, and Ronaldo with talented but less favored Portugal seeking its first title at age 41.

Messi, 38, has yet to fully commit publicly to playing in North America, but Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni insists the decision rests with the superstar while pledging full support. Reports indicate Messi will feature in Argentina’s preliminary 55-player squad ahead of the May 30 deadline, signaling strong likelihood of participation in what could be his swan song. He continues playing regularly for Inter Miami and recently appeared in friendlies, maintaining elite form despite his age.

Lionel Messi's Argentina recently defeated Italy 3-0 in the Finalissima.
Messi or Ronaldo: Who Has Better Shot at 2026 World Cup Glory in Final Dance?

Scaloni has repeatedly emphasized that Messi’s presence elevates the team emotionally and tactically. Argentina, ranked among the top three globally, opens against Algeria in Group J and benefits from a favorable path. The squad retains much of its 2022 core, including recent Copa América successes, making back-to-back titles a realistic ambition despite historical precedent against it.

Power rankings consistently place Argentina near the summit, often third or higher behind Spain and France. Opta and other models highlight their depth, defensive solidity under Scaloni and Messi’s unmatched ability to rise in decisive moments. Even limited minutes in qualifiers showcased his value in expected goals and assists.

Ronaldo, turning 41 during the tournament, has confirmed 2026 as his final World Cup. Portugal qualified comfortably and sits in Group K with Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan — a winnable group. Coach Roberto Martínez staunchly backs his captain, citing recent scoring form and leadership, though debates swirl about Ronaldo’s starting role versus impact as a super-sub given his age and Portugal’s attacking depth.

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Cristiano Ronaldo is not yet ready to retire from the Portugal team
Cristiano Ronaldo
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Portugal ranks around sixth in many power lists, behind Brazil, England and others. While loaded with talent like Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and rising stars, questions persist about integrating Ronaldo without disrupting rhythm. Martínez has defended his starter status, but analysts note Portugal often performs better with fluid attacking rotations.

Team Context and Path to Glory Argentina’s advantages are clear. As reigning champions with continuity, home-like support in U.S. venues (base in Kansas City) and a relatively soft group, they enter as genuine favorites. No team has repeated since Brazil in 1962, yet this Albiceleste side blends experience with hunger. Messi’s leadership proved decisive in Qatar; another deep run feels probable.

Portugal boasts one of Europe’s strongest squads on paper but lacks Argentina’s tournament pedigree. Reaching semifinals or beyond would require navigating tougher potential knockout opponents. Ronaldo’s presence inspires, yet his physical demands at 41 could limit minutes in a grueling expanded 48-team format.

Form, Fitness and Motivation Messi’s game intelligence and vision remain world-class at Inter Miami. He has downplayed individual milestones while focusing on team success. Doubts about stamina exist, but his history of peaking in major tournaments buoys optimism. Inclusion in preliminary squads and Scaloni’s comments suggest he is leaning toward playing.

Ronaldo defies age with remarkable fitness claims — biological age reportedly in the late 20s — and relentless goal-scoring at Al-Nassr. His desire to win the one major trophy missing from his résumé burns bright. However, adaptation to a high-pressing, fluid system at 41 poses challenges, and some experts advocate impact roles over full starts.

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Odds and Expert Consensus Betting markets and simulations favor Argentina strongly, often in the top four alongside France, Spain and Brazil. Portugal sits further back, with odds reflecting talent but also the Ronaldo conundrum. Projections frequently see Messi lifting silverware again; Ronaldo’s path to glory requires near-perfect execution and perhaps reduced on-field burden.

A hypothetical Messi-Ronaldo clash in quarterfinals or later captivates fans, adding narrative drama. Yet Argentina’s collective strength gives them the edge over Portugal’s star-reliant approach.

Legacy Implications For Messi, another title would cement undisputed GOAT status with two World Cups. For Ronaldo, victory would complete football’s ultimate achievement after five attempts, silencing doubters. Both have shattered records — Messi with appearances and contributions, Ronaldo with goals across tournaments.

The 2026 edition, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico, expands opportunities but intensifies physical toll. Argentina’s stability contrasts Portugal’s balancing act. Most analysts give Messi and Argentina superior chances — perhaps 20-25% implied probability versus Portugal’s 8-12%.

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Broader Picture Neither player dominates as in their primes, yet both transcend stats. Argentina’s system maximizes Messi’s genius without over-reliance. Portugal’s wealth of options allows flexibility around Ronaldo. Fitness, draws and momentum will decide fates in a tournament where defending champions rarely repeat but contenders with aura thrive.

As June approaches, Messi’s quiet preparation contrasts Ronaldo’s vocal determination. Argentina enters as favorites; Portugal as dangerous outsiders. The edge clearly tilts toward Messi lifting the trophy once more, though Ronaldo’s fairytale ending cannot be ruled out in football’s unpredictable theater.

The world awaits whether one final chapter delivers ultimate glory to the Argentine maestro or the Portuguese legend. For now, data, form and context point decisively toward Messi and Argentina holding the better hand.

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