This story about the June 2026 CPI inflation report will be updated with further details.

Inflation pulled back in June after surging in prior months due to the Iran war’s impact on energy prices throughout the economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June and was up 3.5% from a year ago. The monthly decline was the largest since a 0.8% decrease in April 2020.

Expectations vs. reality

Those figures were cooler than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a decline of 0.1% on a monthly basis and a 3.8% increase from a year ago. They also represent a cooling trend from the 0.5% monthly increase and the 4.2% annual rise recorded in the May edition of the report.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and groceries to better assess price growth trends, were unchanged from a month ago and up 2.6% from last year. Both of those figures were lower than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.8% from a year ago.

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The cost of living breakdown

High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans, because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.

Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis – the energy index’s largest monthly decline since April 2020 – and are up 15.7% from a year ago. BLS noted that the energy index was the largest contributor to the decline in headline inflation, more than offsetting increases in indexes for food and housing.

Gasoline prices fell 9.7% in June and are up 26.7% from a year ago. Electricity prices were down 1% on a monthly basis and are up 4% from a year ago. Utility gas service prices rose 0.5% in June and are up 3% from last year.

Food prices rose 0.2% in June and are up 3% in the past year. The food at home index is 2.7% higher than a year ago, while the food away from home index is up 3.4% in the last year and both rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in June.

Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis and are up 15.7% from a year ago. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

The meats, poultry and fish index was 0.4% higher in June and has risen 5.7% over the past year. Beef and veal prices rose 1.2% on a monthly basis and are up 11.8% from a year ago. Egg prices increased 4.3% in June but are down 27.9% over the last year as supplies normalized after an avian flu outbreak. Prices for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.2% in June and are up 5.3% from a year ago.

Housing prices rose 0.1% on a monthly basis, which was the smallest one-month change since January 2021, and are up 3.3% from a year ago. Tenants’ and household insurance costs rose 0.2% from a month ago and are up 5.9% in the last year.

Transportation services prices declined 0.3% in June and are 3.4% higher than a year ago. Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis but are up 26.5% compared with a year ago.

Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

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What experts are saying

Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that the “Fed was losing patience with high inflation, and today’s cooler-than-expected report gives them room to breathe.”

“By surprising on the downside, it relieves immediate pressure for action, allows the Fed to gather additional inflation data over the summer, and makes it considerably easier for policymakers to maintain their current wait-and-see stance through the next meeting,” Zentner added.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said: “After today’s benign core inflation release, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings. However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices. A positive resolution with Iran before the end of the summer is becoming increasingly important.”

What does it mean for the Fed?

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at recent meetings amid concerns about elevated inflation, and with readings still coming in well above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers are likely to leave rates unchanged at the next few meetings.

The CME FedWatch tool showed an 85.6% probability that the benchmark federal funds rate will remain at its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the Fed’s next meeting in late July, up from 58.3% a day ago.

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The tool also shows a 0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year, with just a 19.4% chance that rates remain at their current levels – with a 42.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 29.7% chance of 50-basis-points worth of hikes by the end of the year.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced that he will replace a 20% fee on commercial shipping moving through the Strait of Hormuz with “Trade and Investment Deals” that Gulf nations will be making in the United States.

Trump said the move came as the movement of oil and natural gas supplies has eased along the waterway, a vital, narrow commercial shipping point currently being contested by Washington and Tehran.

“Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran — and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION.”

OIL PRICES FLUCTUATE AS TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL COULD FULLY REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

President Donald Trump gestures as he participates in a bilateral meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (not pictured) in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C. (Reuters / Reuters)

However, Trump said he would reinstate a blockade on Iran.

“We will therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything have to do with Iranian cargo,” he added. “Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States.”

Trump’s announcement comes amid Iran’s push to assert control over the strait. Tehran has claimed sovereign authority over the territory, despite the strait historically being considered a free-to-use international waterway.

During Tuesday’s meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Trump said he spoke with Gulf state leaders, who all said they would like to invest in the U.S. “at record amounts.”

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Ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman, April 18, 2026.  (Reuters / Reuters)

“And this way there’s no fee,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “I don’t like the concept of a fee, but at the same time, it’s not fair that we’re protecting this strait for the entire world, for China and everyone.”

“I don’t mind protecting it for anybody. But it’s unfair that we’re not in somehow compensated. And we’ve been doing this for many years,” he added. “They’re investing and they’re getting a return on their money, and it’s good, but they’re going to be making massive investments into the United States and I like that much better.”

Over the weekend, U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged missile and drone attacks as Tehran again claimed to have control over the strait.

On Monday, the U.S. launched strikes against Iranian military sites. By Tuesday, Trump said Iran had been “very much destabilized.”

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“I think what we’ve done to Iran is we’ve taken away almost all of their military capability.”

“I gave them a chance. I wanted to give them a chance at making a deal. You know, we had a deal two days ago. It was done. And then all of a sudden, they couldn’t do it,” he said. “They didn’t like something about the deal. They couldn’t do it. And they shot first. And that was a big mistake that they shot first because we have been knocking the hell out of them.”

New accounts for the claims, recovery and repairs group also show a fall in operating profits

Turnover has increased at Newcastle accident management specialist Winn Group, which says it is well positioned to meet market challenges ahead.

The legal group – which includes replacement vehicle firm On-Hire, medico-legal reporting and rehab firm On Medical and non-fault accident specialists Winn Solicitors – saw turnover rise to £217m in the year to the end of March, 2026, from £196.1m the year before. The accounts for Winn Holding Limited show operating profit fell from £38.7m to £29.8m.

Bosses said performance had been impacted by narrowed operational losses from the group’s Scottish office which started trading in April 2023, and reduction in instructions across intervention services, along with increased salary and commission costs amid increased volumes and legal fees. Winn said it expects strong levels of profit in the future from its Scottish operation, where legal fees increased by 148% to more than £1.6m during the year.

Elsewhere, the main contributor to group revenue growth was On Hire Limited, which saw revenue increase 8% to more than £185.4m on the back of growing instructions. Winn Solicitors Limited ended the year with a 28% increase in turnover thanks to a 38% increase in non-personal injury fees and a 15% increase in fees across road traffic accident personal injury cases.

Meanwhile On Medical was only providing services to medical instructions not completed by April 1, with its main activity being the collection of outstanding trade debtors’ balances. Strong cash generation was noted across the group with £41m of cashflow generated from operating activities before exceptional costs. Dividends of more than £80.7m were also paid during the year.

Winn Group describes itself as a one-stop-shop for people involved in road traffic accidents. The group has become a major player in the accident management and rehabilitation market in recent years and offers an around-the-clock service to clients. It handles vehicle recovery, repairs arrangements and replacement vehicles as well as pursuing compensation and claims.

Staff levels across the year increased as headcount rose from 713 to 747. And following a refinancing in late 2025, the group negotiated a £95m loan with PGIM and Nomura to fuel growth.

Writing in the accounts, CEO Chris Birkett said: “During the year, we have not seen a major change in repair and hire markets; with the exception of inflationary increases in vehicle rental cost across all models and slightly lower lead times versus last year’s levels.”

He added: “Although the economic environment remains uncertain, with the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran and interest rates at 3.75%, the directors remain of the opinion that the group is in a strong financial position to face the challenges ahead, including those arising from an industry where many competitors are in turmoil given recent legislative and macro changes, while keeping significant growth rates.”

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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has stopped giving donations to Bill Gates’ charitable foundation weeks after the Microsoft co-founder detailed his links to the dead sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Buffett “irrevocably” committed in 2006 to donate shares in his firm, Berkshire Hathaway, each year to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as it was then known “throughout my lifetime”.

But on Thursday, the Gates Foundation was left off the list of firms that will receive billions of dollars worth of stock.

The stock will instead be split between four foundations involving members of the Buffett family. The 95-year-old said he will dispose of his remaining stock over the next eight years.

“Of course, mortality is unpredictable,” said Buffett. “But my remaining shares will be donated to the four foundations one way or the other by 31 December, 2034.”

Gates’ association with Epstein was revealed when the US Department of Justice released files in January.

Buffett did not mention Gates or Epstein by name in his statement regarding his donations.

But in March, he told CNBC, external that he had not spoken to Gates “since the whole thing was unveiled”.

He added: “I don’t want to be in a position where I know things… to be called as a witness.”

The Gates Foundation has been contacted for comment.

In June, Gates appeared before the US House Oversight Committee to answer questions about his relationship with Epstein, who died in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.

In a transcript of his testimony, Gates said that he had been introduced to Epstein in 2011 on the premise that he could raise billions of dollars for global health – a key focus of the foundation.

“I recall being aware that Epstein had faced prior legal issues, but I did not fully understand the extent of the crimes he committed,” Gates said.

Three years earlier, Epstein had pleaded guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution and procuring a person under age 18 for prostitution.

Gates told the committee: “I should never have met with Epstein in the first place. Based on what I know now, I understand that even if he had delivered the donors he promised, it would not have justified associating with him.”

Buffett was an enthusiastic supporter of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, stating in 2006 he “greatly” admired what it was accomplishing and promised to make yearly donations.

In 2010, Bill and Melinda Gates and Buffett started the Giving Pledge, which aimed to get extraordinarily wealthy people to give away the majority of their fortune during their lifetime or in their will.

Bill and Melinda Gates divorced in 2021 after 27 years of marriage.

Melinda French Gates resigned in 2024 from the foundation she co-founded and said that she would donate $1bn to help women’s rights in the US.