SCB EIC raises Thailand’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.8% due to improved exports and private investment. However, growth remains below potential amid geopolitical and domestic challenges.

SCB EIC has raised its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 to 1.8%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%. This revision reflects improved export performance and increased private investment driven by a global economic recovery, particularly in AI technology and electronic goods. Despite this positive outlook, Thailand’s overall economic growth remains below its potential due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and structural challenges within the country.

Private sector investments are beginning to pick up, aided by foreign direct investment and a rebound in construction activities. However, government spending may slow down after significant economic stimulus in the last quarter of 2025. The Bank of Thailand is expected to reduce its policy rate to 1% to support economic activities, particularly among vulnerable households and SMEs.

Globally, SCB EIC anticipates a 2.7% growth in 2026, primarily driven by investments in AI and digital goods, which mitigate geopolitical pressures. While monetary policy remains accommodative, inflation risk persists, particularly in the U.S. As such, global financial conditions might stabilize but are unlikely to ease significantly given the inflationary pressures in various nations.

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Simeon Gutman
Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Okay. Hello. Thank you. Welcome, everybody. I’m Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley’s hardline, broadline food retail analyst. My pleasure to welcome Daniel Danker, EVP, AI Acceleration and Product Design from Walmart, most recently with Instacart as Chief Product Officer in Online Grocery. Thank you, Walmart, for being here third year in a row, and it probably took 3 years to be annointed as a tech company.

I recently — one introduction for Daniel before we get into this, I was talking with Doug about 2 months ago as an outgoing conversation. We talked about some of his hardest decisions, and we asked — I asked him about one of his best decisions. I didn’t know Daniel yet, but he mentioned it was hiring Daniel as someone at the enterprise level who can help advance AI. So high expectations, sorry about that.

What does steady leadership really look like?

For Jayson Baker, it starts with hard work, tough decisions, and a clear focus on people. His career in education spans classrooms, coaching courts, principal offices, and state-level consulting. Along the way, he built a reputation for integrity, growth, and measurable impact.

He does not chase titles. He chases progress.

“For me, success is making a positive impact, moving with integrity, and working toward continual personal and professional growth.”

That mindset has shaped every stage of his journey.

Early Life and Work Ethic

Jayson grew up in Belleville and Freeburg, Illinois. His roots were humble.

His mom, Sandee, was a hair stylist. His dad, Joe, worked as a carpenter and an X-ray technician. Hard work was normal in his home.

He stood out early. He won young authors awards several times. He placed second in a spelling bee in second grade. He won a poetry contest in third grade. In sixth grade, he was student council president. In eighth grade, he was voted funniest in his class.

Leadership and communication came naturally.

But what mattered most was what he learned at home.

“My biggest influences were my parents because they taught me that hard work pays off.”

That lesson would carry him through every transition in his career.

Education and Foundation in Teaching

Jayson graduated from Freeburg Community High School in 2002.

He earned a bachelor’s degree in early childhood education from Southeast Missouri State University in 2006. While there, he joined Kappa Delta Pi, the national honor society for educators.

He later completed a master’s degree in educational administration from Southern Illinois University Edwardsville in 2011.

His early focus was simple: understand how students learn.

As a teacher, he conducted action research in his own classroom. He tested strategies. He studied how the brain processes information. He challenged his own assumptions.

“Realizing that there are more effective ways to teach than what I experienced as a student was difficult to wrap my head around.”

That moment changed him.

“Stepping out of my comfort zone and teaching with the brain in mind ended up being the biggest success I could ask for. My success is the success of the students and educators whose lives I touched.”

This was not theory. It was practice.

From Teacher to Principal and Leadership Coach

Jayson began as a teacher, coach, and grant program director. He later served as a principal and athletic director. Over time, he also worked as an instructional coach and consultant at the state level.

Each move followed the same pattern. Learn. Improve. Lead.

He believes leadership requires more than authority.

“You need to have an understanding of how schools and businesses work, know how the brain works to learn, have courage to advocate for vulnerable and marginalized people, possess a heart that genuinely cares about people, and have the interpersonal and communication skills to inspire and motivate.”

That philosophy shaped how he made decisions.

Leadership is not always popular. Some calls upset people. Some changes create friction.

“Making difficult decisions can be challenging, especially if your decision is not popular. I overcome obstacles by measuring my decisions against what is best for those under my charge.”

That approach builds trust over time.

Grant Writing and Measurable Impact

One of his most concrete achievements was writing and securing a $500,000 grant from the Department of Defense.

That did not happen by chance.

It required research. Data. Planning. Clear outcomes.

It also reflected how he thinks about growth.

“I imagine myself in successful situations and plan out realistic, specific steps to take towards achieving my goals. I measure my success toward long-term goals by hitting milestones in my short-term goals along the way.”

He compares it to taking baby steps instead of one giant leap.

This structured thinking has defined his leadership style. Set a vision. Break it down. Execute.

Leadership Development and Professional Growth

Today, Jayson is known for his focus on leadership development and professional development.

He studies growth. He practices reflection. He leans on discipline.

“I consider myself to be a lifelong learner and teacher, so I make sure I continue to learn something every day.”

He relies on routine. He relies on support.

“I rely on my strong support system in my family for counsel, practice daily reflection, and use prayer to keep me on the right track.”

He also reframes failure.

“Learning is all about the journey. Of course the outcome is important, but the real learning takes place on the road to results.”

Data matters. Feedback matters. But mindset matters more.

Balancing Leadership and Life

Leadership can consume time and energy. Jayson sees it differently.

“When you enter the world of leadership, it is less about trying to strike a balance and more about being fit in the many roles you have.”

He focuses on being a fit father. A fit husband. A fit leader.

He knows there are only so many minutes in a day. So he prioritizes intentionally.

That discipline has defined his career.

From a young student winning writing contests to a principal leading teams and securing major grants, Jayson Baker has built a steady track record.

He does not frame his story around status. He frames it around impact.

And in education, impact is the only metric that truly lasts.

The dollar halted its blistering rally on Thursday, providing some reprieve to the battered euro as investors clung on to fragile assumptions that the war in the Middle East may not last as long as initially expected.

Investors were quick to take comfort in a report that Iran intelligence operatives signalled openness to talks with the CIA to end the war despite Tehran’s subsequent denial, underscoring the fraught sentiment towards a conflict that has lashed global markets.

The dollar further eased from an ‌over three-month high ⁠hit earlier ⁠this week and stood at 98.78 against a basket of currencies.

The euro was meanwhile up marginally at $1.1636, having slid to a more than three-month low on Tuesday, while sterling steadied at $1.3366.

“I wouldn’t say it was particularly good news, because Iran came out and kind of dismissed the report, and it is still clearly uncertain how long the war would drag on and the impact of it, but markets have certainly taken a relatively sanguine view,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

She added that sentiment was also helped by upbeat U.S. ⁠economic data ‌released on Wednesday which showed that services sector activity surged to more than a 3-1/2-year high in February as businesses rebuilt inventories in anticipation of strong demand.
Still, the dollar held to its ⁠gain of over 1% for the week thus far, emerging as one of a handful of winners in a volatile few sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times, even safe-haven precious metals lower. The spike in energy prices from the fallout of the Middle East war has stoked fears of a resurgence in inflation that could derail the rate outlooks for major central banks.

“Markets have largely traded the Middle East war as an inflation risk,” said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.

“In the case of the (Federal Reserve) and Bank of England that means fewer rate cuts are being priced, ‌but EUR money markets are now pricing in around 40% odds that the (European Central Bank) may have to hike rates before the end of the year.”

The yen similarly found some support on Thursday from a weaker greenback and rose ⁠0.2% to 156.78 per dollar.

The Australian dollar was up 0.14% at $0.7085, extending its 0.57% gain from the previous session, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5942.

Despite typically being a risk-sensitive currency, the Aussie has benefitted from a rare safe-haven bid this week as the country’s energy abundance offset the impact of rising oil prices.

Elsewhere, the offshore yuan was up 0.12% at 6.8860 per dollar, ahead of the onshore open.

China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year, which leaves room for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and rebalance the economy.

Bitcoin and ether fell about 1% each, having rallied strongly overnight as risk appetite improved.