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FMCG could outshine, IT guidance key this earnings season: Narendra Solanki

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FMCG could outshine, IT guidance key this earnings season: Narendra Solanki
As India’s first-quarter earnings season gets underway, investors are preparing for a series of management commentaries that could set the tone for markets over the coming quarters. While sectors such as banking, manufacturing, auto ancillaries and healthcare are expected to deliver steady performance, the spotlight will also be on whether information technology companies revise their growth outlook amid a challenging global environment.

Narendra Solanki from Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers believes the upcoming results will largely reinforce the strength of domestic-facing sectors, while export-oriented industries like IT may continue to face pressure.

IT Likely to Remain Under Pressure
The IT sector is expected to remain in focus this earnings season as investors assess the impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption, delayed client spending and global uncertainty on growth prospects.According to Solanki, caution remains warranted despite attractive valuations.

“Results are around the corner, and the first results will start coming from the 9th. Coming to the IT sector, our positioning is neutral to cautious, especially in this quarter. The sector is currently facing multiple headwinds, right from AI disruption to the West Asia crisis. We are also seeing deals being delayed, with clients not committing upfront, so deal closures are not happening at the pace we used to see. These factors are likely to continue impacting the IT sector in the near term,” he said.
While near-term challenges remain, he believes the second half of the financial year could witness an improvement.
“One thing is certain: the second half is going to be better than the first half. However, one key risk remains whether there is any possibility of trimming the FY27 growth guidance, especially at the higher end. That is something the market should watch carefully in the management commentaries this quarter. The top-end guidance of around 2.5% to 3.5% now looks difficult, especially after recent commentary from Accenture. That is why our stance remains neutral to cautious in Q1,” he said.
FMCG May Spring a Positive Surprise
While markets have largely been optimistic on sectors such as auto ancillaries, manufacturing and power transmission & distribution, Solanki believes the biggest surprise could emerge from FMCG and discretionary consumption.

He points to easing inflation, lower crude oil prices and resilient demand trends as factors that could support stronger-than-expected earnings.

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“Broadly, sectors like auto ancillaries, manufacturing and power T&D should continue to perform well. The surprising factor may come from the FMCG pack, where markets are currently cautious. However, there have been decent price hikes in the FMCG space, overall inflation has come down, crude oil prices have softened, and both rural and urban demand have shown resilience. So, there can be a positive surprise, especially in the FMCG or discretionary space,” he said.

He also expects domestic manufacturing, healthcare and banking to remain strong performers.

“Auto and auto ancillaries should continue to perform well. The hospitals segment within healthcare should also perform well. Banks are expected to remain strong, with overall credit growth at around 7.7%. Industrial growth data is also promising, so overall the domestic manufacturing sector should continue to perform well,” he said.

PSU Banks Continue to Outshine
Among financials, Solanki continues to favour public sector banks over their private-sector counterparts, citing consistent earnings growth, improving profitability and healthy asset quality.

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“Compared with private banks, we remain committed to public sector banks because they have continuously posted better growth over the last seven straight quarters, and there is no reason for that momentum to stop. Return ratios are improving, asset quality continues to remain good, and provisioning has been very healthy, with more than an 80% provisioning run rate. We do not see any near-term risk and continue to favour public sector banks over private banks,” he said.

Real Estate Rally May Be Nearing a Pause
Although real estate stocks have staged a sharp recovery, Solanki believes much of the optimism has already been reflected in valuations. Rising inventory levels could begin to weigh on the sector in the coming quarters.

“Most of the rally has already been done. If you look at inventory build-up, it has risen from 14 months to 18 months, which is the first alarming sign. The good part of the rally is behind us, and after one or two quarters we could start seeing some consolidation or slack in the sector. Unsold inventory is steadily rising and now stands at around 18 months, which could impact the second quarter,” he said.

Management Guidance Will Be the Biggest Trigger
Beyond the headline earnings numbers, Solanki believes management guidance will play a decisive role in shaping investor sentiment, particularly in the IT sector where expectations may still be too optimistic.

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“As I mentioned earlier, IT may be trading at historically lower valuations in terms of price-to-earnings ratios, but any cut in guidance by companies, especially in the first half, may not yet be fully priced in by the market. That will remain one of the key things to watch in the management commentaries,” he said.

The Bottom Line
The Q1 earnings season is shaping up as a test of sectoral divergence rather than broad-based strength. Domestic themes—including PSU banks, manufacturing, healthcare and auto ancillaries—are expected to remain resilient, while FMCG could emerge as an unexpected outperformer. In contrast, IT companies face heightened scrutiny, with investors closely tracking demand commentary and any revisions to growth guidance that could influence market sentiment in the months ahead.

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KeyCorp Stock: Focus On Investor Event Disclosures And New Buyback Plan (NYSE:KEY)

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This article was written by

The Value Pendulum is an Asian equity market specialist with over a decade of experience on both the buy and sell sides.He is the author of the investing group Asia Value & Moat Stocks, providing ideas for value investors seeking investment opportunities listed in Asia, with a particular focus on the Hong Kong market. He hunts for deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks and provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates within his investing group.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Kawhi Leonard Returns to Toronto in Blockbuster Trade That Mirrors the 2018 Deal That Won Raptors a Title

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Kawhi Leonard LA Clippers

TORONTO — Seven years after leading the Toronto Raptors to the first and only NBA championship in franchise history, Kawhi Leonard is going back to Canada in a blockbuster trade that has reshaped the Eastern Conference landscape and given Toronto the most compelling storyline in the NBA heading into the 2026-27 season.

The Los Angeles Clippers agreed to send Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for All-Star forward Brandon Ingram, guard Gradey Dick, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 first-round pick swap and two second-round picks in 2030 and 2033, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania, who first reported the deal Tuesday.

The transaction ends a seven-year Clippers tenure that produced three All-Star appearances, four All-NBA honors and a career-high 27.9 points per game last season but never came close to delivering the championship that both the team and Leonard sought when he chose Los Angeles over a return to Toronto in free agency in 2019. The Clippers, who went 42-40 and lost in the play-in tournament to the Golden State Warriors last season, now begin a full teardown.

The symmetry with 2018 is striking enough that analysts and commentators have noted it repeatedly since the deal became public. Eight years ago, Toronto was a strong regular-season team that could not break through in the playoffs. It traded its leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, a recent lottery pick in Jakob Poeltl and draft capital for Leonard in the final year before his free agency. The result was an NBA title. Now, in 2026, Toronto is again a strong regular-season team that made noise before losing in the first round to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It has traded its leading scorer in Ingram, a recent lottery pick in Dick and draft capital for Leonard, again in the final year before his free agency.

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Whether history repeats is an open question, but the personnel case for a strong Toronto team is real. The Raptors improved by 16 wins last season in their best offensive and defensive efficiency season in six years. Leonard, who maintained a career-high usage rate at 34 years old while playing 65 regular-season games, brings a scoring profile of the kind that Toronto has consistently lacked since the second iteration of the franchise’s championship window.

Leonard agreed to this deal for reasons ESPN sources described as grounded in familiarity and genuine competitive belief. The city of Toronto itself was a draw, as was the Raptors’ front office stability under executive vice president Bobby Webster. Most importantly, Leonard believes the Raptors can contend in the Eastern Conference. He will be eligible to sign up to a two-year, $123.7 million extension with his new team, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

That extension eligibility was the single most critical variable shaping the entire trade. Leonard’s representatives had communicated to teams across the league that he was only willing to sign a contract extension with the Raptors, among teams outside Los Angeles, effectively collapsing his trade market down to one serious bidder. That leverage worked in Toronto’s favor in one sense, giving the Raptors a cleaner path to the deal without competition, but also created pressure to surrender meaningful assets since the Clippers knew Toronto was the only realistic taker willing to pay a full price.

Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank had said publicly in April, after his team’s early playoff exit, that the plan was to build around Leonard. “Our plan is to win with Kawhi,” he said at his end-of-season news conference. “At the appropriate time, we’ll sit down with Kawhi, and very similar to 2024, lay out our plan.” That plan unraveled when the Clippers made no long-term commitment to Leonard this offseason, sources told ESPN, leading Leonard’s camp to formally signal his openness to a Toronto return.

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A separate but significant complication surrounds Leonard and the Clippers organization. The NBA has been investigating whether the Clippers circumvented the salary cap by channeling money to Leonard through a $28 million endorsement deal with green banking company Aspiration, which simultaneously held a $300 million, 23-year endorsement deal with the Clippers themselves. The outcome of that investigation could have implications for Leonard’s contract, though no formal ruling has been announced and the trade appears to have proceeded with full league awareness of the pending review.

For the Clippers, the Leonard trade is the final, formal acknowledgment that the organization is resetting. The franchise’s roster has been dramatically remade in a matter of months: James Harden and Ivica Zubac were moved at the trade deadline, Paul George left in free agency last summer, and now Leonard is headed to Toronto. Of the seven notable players assembled a year ago as part of an all-in championship attempt, only Brook Lopez remains. The Clippers now hold Ingram, a 28-year-old All-Star whose $40 million annual contract and recovery from a heel injury will shape what they can do next, alongside a collection of draft assets they hope to use in building a new core.

Toronto, meanwhile, wasted no time adding around Leonard’s return. The Raptors signed veteran forward Kyle Anderson, a former teammate of Leonard’s with the San Antonio Spurs, to a one-year deal. The team also confirmed a contract extension for head coach Darko Rajaković, ensuring coaching continuity as the franchise makes what is explicitly a win-now push with a player who will turn 35 during the coming season.

Scottie Barnes, Toronto’s rising young star, and Leonard together give the Raptors a forward pairing with the defensive versatility and offensive skill to compete with any team in the Eastern Conference. Whether Leonard’s body cooperates across a full playoff run, a concern that has shadowed every chapter of his career since his 2021-22 ACL season, remains the central risk in Toronto’s gamble. If he stays healthy, the Raptors have acquired one of the five best players in the NBA at a price that, relative to other recent superstar trades, analysts have described as closer to a bargain than an overpay.

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