As geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to keep broader markets on edge, investors may need to look beyond benchmark indices to uncover meaningful wealth creation opportunities. According to market expert Sunny Agrawal from SBI Cap Securities, the recent earnings season has highlighted a growing divergence between the performance of large-cap companies and the broader mid- and small-cap universe.

Speaking to ET Now, Agrawal said the latest earnings cycle clearly demonstrated stronger growth momentum among mid- and small-cap companies compared to the Nifty 50 constituents.

“When it comes to the earnings season which has just recently concluded, one thing is pretty clear—that the earnings momentum is pretty robust in the mid- and small-cap pack as compared to the frontline companies. We have seen around 15% to 20% earnings growth for the mid-cap as well as small-cap pack, compared to single-digit earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies. That is the reason we believe that the wealth creation opportunity ultimately lies in pockets which are not part of benchmark indices.”

Bottom-Up Stock Picking Remains Key

Agrawal believes investors should focus on identifying niche growth stories rather than relying solely on index-linked investing. Several sectors, particularly those linked to India’s power infrastructure buildout, continue to offer attractive opportunities.

“Whether it is wires and cables as a segment, which is a power ancillary, or whether it is the transformer or power equipment sector, which is predominantly not a part of Nifty 50 companies, ultimately it is a bottom-up stock picker’s market. We need to identify growth stories which may not be part of the Nifty 50.”
While he expects the benchmark index to remain range-bound until geopolitical uncertainties ease, he sees substantial opportunities across segments such as auto ancillaries, cables and wires, power ancillaries, B2B jewellery companies, and structural steel tube manufacturers.
Agrawal acknowledged that rising raw material and crude oil prices could exert short-term pressure on margins during the first quarter. However, he remains optimistic about the broader earnings outlook for FY27, particularly if geopolitical tensions begin to subside from the second quarter onward.
EV Bus Opportunity Is Significant, But Patience Is Essential
The government’s recently announced electric bus initiative has generated excitement across the industry, with companies such as JBM Auto and Olectra Greentech expected to benefit. However, Agrawal cautioned investors against expecting immediate and consistent earnings growth from the sector.

“The opportunity size definitely is pretty huge. In fact, there is an opportunity for each and every player to grab a share. But ultimately, announcing a flagship scheme and rolling it out is a different ballgame.”

He noted that electric bus and truck sales remain heavily dependent on government spending and state transport undertakings, often resulting in uneven quarterly sales trends.

“Long term, we definitely continue to remain bullish on EV buses as a theme, but one needs to deploy patient capital if somebody wants to create wealth out of this story.”

According to him, manufacturing capacity is not a constraint, as major players, including incumbent commercial vehicle manufacturers, have already built significant capabilities to address future demand.

Coal India Rally May Have Run Ahead of Earnings Growth
On the recent surge in Coal India shares, Agrawal adopted a more measured stance.

While acknowledging an improvement in fourth-quarter earnings, he does not foresee a dramatic acceleration in profitability during FY27.

“Although there has been some improvement in terms of earnings growth for quarter four, not many fireworks are expected for FY27 in terms of earnings. Post the OFS, we have seen a very sharp up move, maybe on the back of very cheap valuations and the high dividend yield that Coal India commands.”

Instead, he believes investors looking to benefit from India’s long-term energy growth story may find better opportunities elsewhere within the broader power and energy ecosystem.

Titan Continues to Benefit from Organised Market Shift
Agrawal remains positive on jewellery and lifestyle major Titan, citing its leadership position and continued gains from the shift of consumers from the unorganised sector to organised retail channels.

“The addressable market size is pretty large across all categories, whether it is eyewear, watches or the accessories segment. The shift from unorganised to organised is something which is playing out across all jewellery players, and Titan, being a market leader, is definitely benefiting from that.”

He believes the company can comfortably deliver a 15% to 17% earnings CAGR over the next four to five years.

However, he also highlighted valuation concerns.

“We continue to remain bullish. The only point I would like to derive is that valuations continue to remain slightly expensive. We believe the fair value of the business is closer to ₹4,500-4,600.”

Consumer Durables Entering a Recovery Phase
Turning to the consumer durables segment, Agrawal suggested that the worst may now be behind the sector as inventory levels normalise and demand remains healthy.

He expressed a preference for business-to-business manufacturers over consumer-facing brands, arguing that the former offer more attractive opportunities.

“Things are getting better as the system inventory gets drawn down. We have seen some margin pressure during quarter four, but it looks like the worst is behind for the entire sector.”

Among his preferred names are contract manufacturing and electronics players such as Amber Enterprises and PG Electroplast.

“Both have disappointed in terms of margins during quarter four, but what we believe is that FY27 should be a normalised year in terms of margins going forward. Demand continues to remain robust, the way the heatwave is playing out and the way El Niño conditions are being forecast. It seems that FY27 should be a far better year in terms of earnings. So, we would like to ride through PG and Amber.”

Key Takeaways
Agrawal’s investment approach remains firmly rooted in stock selection rather than index investing. While benchmark indices may continue to consolidate amid global uncertainties, he sees compelling opportunities emerging across mid- and small-cap companies tied to power infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, consumer durables and organised retail themes. For investors willing to look beyond the index and maintain a long-term horizon, these pockets could continue to offer stronger earnings growth and wealth creation potential in the years ahead.

Indian stock market traded in the green on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty extending gains for the second consecutive session as investors await the outcome of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting today.

Sensex gained 270 points at 74,629.94, while Nifty 50 rose over 62 points at 23,478.95. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, fell over 2% to 15.89.

Infosys, UltraTech Cement, TCS, Tech Mahindra, M&M and Maruti Suzuki shares gained over 1% each to lead gains on Sensex. Tata Steel shares meanwhile fell over 1% to lead losses on the benchmark index.

Broader markets also traded in the green, with Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices gaining over 0.3% each. All sectoral indices opened in the green, with Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty IT and Nifty Media rising nearly 1% each. Around 1,824 stocks advanced on NSE, while 523 declined and 101 remained unchanged.

What’s moving the stock market upward today?

“There are some mild positive indications for the market today. There are signs of weakness in the AI trade in the US, South Korea and Taiwan and rotation away from tech stocks, but it is too early to say whether this will sustain,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
The focus of the market today will be on the monetary policy and the message from the RBI Governor, the analyst said. “The MPC is likely to hold rates with a guidance of a rate hike later in the year to combat inflation which is expected to rise in H2 FY27. RBI is likely to revise the GDP growth for FY 27 downward and CPI inflation upward in the context of the energy shock and its implications,” he added.
According to Vijayakumar, the most likely policy action is a ‘hawkish hold’, that is, the RBI would hold the rates without any change but would send a hawkish message that inflation is set to rise and, therefore, expect rate hike later this year. If the RBI decides to act now with a 25 bps rate hike, that will move the banking stocks sharply upwards since they would benefit from rate hikes, he further said. However, a rate hike would be negative for interest elastic segments like automobiles and real estate, the analyst added.
Rupee rises

Rupee meanwhile gained 8 paise to 95.66 against US dollar in early trade. “With India’s import bill under pressure from elevated commodity prices and continued FII outflows, participants will closely monitor the Governor’s commentary for cues on inflation, currency stability, and future policy direction,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.

The analyst expects the near-term range for rupee to be 95.25–96.25.

FII selling continues

Foreign investors continued to remain bearish on Indian markets. FIIs net sold Indian shares worth Rs 4,447 crore on Thursday, according to data on NSE.

Notably, FIIs have remained net sellers of Indian equities for five consecutive sessions.

(With inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Shares of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone rebounded after a two-session decline, rising more than 1% to Rs 1,812 on Friday after Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. The brokerage also raised the stock’s target price to Rs 1,870.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that cargo volumes in May 2026 rose 16% year-on-year to 48.3 million tonnes, led by a 33% increase in liquid cargo and a 17% rise in container volumes. Quarter-to-date cargo volumes stood at 91.4 million tonnes, up 15% from a year ago and ahead of analyst expectations.

Goldman Sachs noted that thermal coal volumes are witnessing a recovery and are likely to remain robust during the summer months. However, logistics rail volumes in May declined 19% year-on-year to 48,170 container units.

The brokerage identified key growth drivers as higher Tata Power-linked coal volumes at Mundra, the ramp-up of operations at the Vizhinjam transhipment hub, growth in liquid cargo at Mundra, and expansion of multimodal logistics parks.

Reflecting the strong volume momentum and improving return on capital employed (ROCE), Goldman Sachs has revised its earnings estimates upward and increased its target price for the stock.

Adani Ports Q4 snapshot

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,329 crore for the March-ended quarter, compared to Rs 3,014 crore in the year-ago period, marking a 10% increase. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to equity holders of the parent.
India’s largest port operator posted revenue growth of 26% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 10,737 crore in Q4FY26, as against Rs 8,488 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.
The company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) in the quarter under review stood at Rs 6,02 crore, up 20% from Rs 5,006 crore reported in Q4FY25.

Also read: Rajesh Exports shares hit 5% lower circuit for 2nd day; firm cites ‘communication gap’ after Sebi order

For the full financial year, PAT jumped 16% to Rs 12,782 crore compared to Rs 11,061 crore in FY25, while the topline stood at Rs 38,736 crore for FY26 versus Rs 31,079 crore in FY25, recording a 25% growth. EBITDA saw a 20% YoY uptick at Rs 22,851 crore.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)