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FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold held its ground at $4,454.68 per ounce by 0057 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since August 19 in the previous session.
U.S. gold ‌futures for ⁠December delivery ⁠rose 0.5% to $4,503.70.

Key U.S. data this week include job openings, the ADP employment report ​and nonfarm payrolls data that will be scrutinised for clues on labour market health and ​interest rate outlook.

Traders currently see a 65% chance of a September U.S. rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Live Events

Gold fell more ​than 3% on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin ⁠Warsh said ‌the U.S. central bank will “have work to do” if ​policymakers don’t ​get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down ⁠to 2%.
While gold is considered a hedge against ​inflation, higher rates typically weigh on the metal by ​boosting the appeal of yield-bearing assets.U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he has a lot of respect for Warsh and that “he’ll do what he has to do” on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Trump threatened further strikes against Iran on Monday after the first ‌exchange of direct attacks in a month, raising tensions in a conflict that had recently shifted into an economic standoff.

Among ​other metals, ​spot silver gained 0.4% ⁠at $66.77 per ounce, platinum edged 0.7% higher at $1,802.67, while palladium firmed 0.8% to $1,367.25.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0145 China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Final August

0600 UK Nationwide house price mm, yy ​August

0750 France S&P Manufacturing PMI August

0755 Germany S&P Manufacturing PMI August

0800 EU S&P MFG Final PMI August

0830 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI August

0900 EU HICP Flash YY August

0900 EU HICP-X, F, E, A, T Flash YY, MM August

0900 EU Unemployment Rate July

1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final August

1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMI August

OCBC reports the Thai baht’s bullish trend against the USD, now near 34.80, faces limits from Bank of Thailand intervention concerns. Export competitiveness worries may cap gains, keeping USD/THB range-bound between 34.70–35.30, with traders advised to watch for official signals or reversals.

Currency Strength Amid Regional Tailwinds

OCBC’s latest analysis reveals the Thai baht has strengthened to approximately 32.80 per US dollar, its strongest level in months, driven by regional currency momentum, improved domestic sentiment, and a weaker US dollar. This appreciation aligns with a broader Asian currency trend, as markets anticipate potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. However, OCBC cautions that Thailand’s heavy reliance on exports makes it particularly vulnerable to currency strength compared to regional peers, setting the stage for closer scrutiny from domestic monetary authorities as the baht’s rally continues to unfold against the dollar.

Bank of Thailand’s Intervention Risk Looms Large

Despite the bullish momentum, OCBC emphasizes that the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) sensitivity to rapid appreciation could significantly cap further gains. The central bank has historically intervened when currency strength threatens export competitiveness, using tools such as direct market intervention, interest rate adjustments, or verbal warnings. OCBC projects the USD/THB pair will likely remain range-bound, with support near 32.70–32.80 and resistance around 33.20–33.30. This creates a critical dynamic where traders pursuing the baht’s upside must carefully weigh the probability of official intervention, which could trigger abrupt short-term reversals and disrupt otherwise favorable trading positions.

Implications for Traders and Businesses

For market participants, understanding BoT’s policy stance is essential, as intervention can swiftly alter currency direction. OCBC advises closely monitoring verbal cues and economic data releases that might signal impending action. Businesses engaged in Thai trade face a dual-edged impact: a stronger baht reduces import costs but simultaneously erodes export competitiveness and pricing power internationally. Additionally, currency strength could dampen tourism appeal by making Thailand more expensive for foreign visitors. Investors should also factor baht movements into assessments of Thai equities and bonds, since currency stability directly influences asset attractiveness and returns, making vigilance around BoT actions a critical component of any Thailand-focused investment or trading strategy.

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Federal regulators announced Friday that hundreds of boxes of mangoes sold at Walmart stores are being recalled over potential salmonella contamination. 

At least 302 boxes of Martina-brand mangoes are included in the recall initiated by Panorama Produce, according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The affected produce is packaged in nine-count boxes containing large mangoes. 

The recalled mangoes were sold at select Walmart locations in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. 

The safety alert was issued after FDA testing reportedly detected salmonella in mangoes grown on the same farm as the recalled fruit. The mangoes that tested positive were not distributed in U.S. commerce, officials said. 

NEARLY 25K POUNDS OF FROZEN BUFFALO CHICKEN RECALLED OVER INSPECTION LAPSE

The FDA recalled 302 boxes of Martina mangoes sold at select Walmart stores. (Food and Drug Administration / Fox News)

“The recalled mangoes and the sampled mangoes share the same source, therefore Panorama Produce has initiated a recall,” the notice said.

No illnesses have been reported in connection with the recalled mangoes. 

The affected mangoes bear a light blue Agrofepac sticker, are labeled “Produce of Mexico” and have PLU number 4584 and UPC number 07503061948050. 

The mangoes were distributed between Aug. 10 and Aug. 21. 

Consumers are urged to discard the recalled mangoes or return them to the place of purchase to avoid potential health risks. 

Anyone who believes they may have become ill after consuming the product should contact a health care provider, regulators said. 

BETTER BAKEHOUSE RECALLS CHOCOLATE-DIPPED DONUTS FOLLOWING ALLERGIC REACTION, MISLABELING ISSUE

FILE — The recalled mangoes were sold in nine-count boxes and distributed between Aug. 10 and Aug. 21. (SAUL LOEB/AFP / Getty Images)

“Panorama Produce is an experienced produce importer committed to a strong focus on food safety. This recall is being conducted voluntarily and in coordination with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration,” the company said, according to regulators

Consumers with further questions about the recall can contact Panorama Produce by email at information@panoramaproduce.com Monday through Saturday from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET. 

Salmonella is an organism that can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections, especially in young children, frail or elderly people, and others with weakened immune systems. 

Healthy people infected with Salmonella may experience fever, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain.

The Walmart mango recall affects nine-count boxes of Martina-brand mangoes with a Mexico label, Agrofepac sticker and UPC number 07503061948050. (Food and Drug Administration / Fox News)

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In rare cases, the infection can enter the bloodstream and cause more severe illnesses, including arterial infections, endocarditis and arthritis.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran after the first exchange of direct attacks in a month as the six-month-long conflict shows no signs of ending. The fresh attacks sent Brent crude futures above $91 a barrel and Treasury yields higher. [O/R][US/]

The yen last bought ‌159.81 per dollar, having ⁠weakened past ⁠the 160 level in the two previous sessions. The yen firmed after Bessent said he believed Japan’s government and central bank would take action that ​leads to a stronger yen.

“I have information that the market doesn’t have, and it’s my belief that the Japanese government and the BOJ ​will do the things that will lead to a stronger yen,” Bessent told CNBC in an interview during a Group of 20 finance leaders’ gathering.

A rare joint intervention from the U.S. and Japan at the end of July provided short-lived relief ​for the fragile yen, with the currency having since surrendered most of the gains ⁠from the ‌joint action.

Live Events

Markets are pricing in a 73% chance of a hike from the BOJ later this ​month, but analysts ​suggest there needs to be a much stronger follow-through by the central bank.
“For the yen, a ⁠September BOJ hike is already heavily anticipated,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist ​at Saxo.”With US yields still high and rising oil worsening Japan’s terms of trade, ​the yen probably needs a more hawkish BOJ path beyond September – not just one hike – to sustainably move away from 160.”

The U.S. dollar was subdued, backing away from Friday’s gains as investors contended with rising odds of a hike from the Federal Reserve in September after last week’s hawkish remarks from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The euro was steady at $1.1623 after eking out a nearly 1% gain for August. Sterling last fetched $1.35575 after a 0.5% rise last month. The dollar index, which measures ‌the U.S. currency against six other units, eased to 99.37.

In his debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers, Warsh said the Fed will “have work to do” should inflation not appear to ​be cooling, stoking ​expectations of a possible rate hike ⁠in the upcoming Fed meeting in September.

Traders are pricing in a 65% chance of a Fed hike later this month, compared to 41% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

“It is notable that higher oil prices and Treasury yields have ​failed to support the USD,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“The overnight USD weakness may reflect markets reassessing whether Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance is sufficient to restore Fed credibility. Rising expectations of a September BoJ rate hike also added further pressure on the USD.”

Investor attention will be on a slew of economic data later this week that will help guide whether the Fed will deliver a hike.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar was a touch firmer at $0.7172, while the New Zealand dollar fetched $0.5921.