A Broken Record

Here we go again, repeating our mantra that the markets are too high and vulnerable to declines. Adding to our argument, interest rates are now on the rise around the world. Stock prices have ignored this, increasing risk, especially if rates continue to rise, which appears likely in the near term.

Interest rates impact everything from valuations (as discount rates adjust) to borrowing costs. The bloated U.S. federal government deficit has been further exacerbated by defense spending and escalating interest rates, since interest expense—the debt burden—was already a disproportionate amount of the federal budget. A vicious cycle could follow if the Treasury is forced to post even higher rates to attract buyers to its continuous bond offerings.

Bond yields are primarily rising because of inflation. Core PCE, the U.S. inflation rate excluding food and energy, is running at 3.3% annually. Producer prices have leaped materially and have yet to be passed on to consumers. As a result, it’s ironic that the new Fed chair will likely need to boost administered short-term rates despite the President’s insistence otherwise. Either way, the bond market is doing its job by increasing rates, requiring a higher yield to offset risks.

Investors aren’t being compensated sufficiently given current market levels. Real yields (net of inflation) for short-term bonds are negative. Credit spreads between government bonds and corporates are tight, so reaching for yield is also generally unattractive. And based on several valuation metrics that have accurately forecast subsequent returns historically, forward annualized returns for the S&P 500 over the next several years are negative.

Record Low Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment, which is normally high when the economy and stock markets are buoyant, is making new record lows, likely attributable to rising inflation expectations, polarized politics, falling home prices, AI-related layoffs, and the war with Iran. It’s not just a U.S. phenomenon; UK confidence is also at an all-time low. Credit card delinquencies in the U.S. are at their highest levels since 2008, car loan defaults are at multi-decade highs, and student loan delinquencies are at record-high levels. Consumers are clearly feeling pinched. Walmart (WMT) noted that their customers are fueling up less than 10 gallons per fill-up, topping off tanks since gas prices are so high. Inflation impinging upon real income growth and savings rates have also diminished.

Despite this, stock markets have powered higher. AI-related capital spending has been a significant driver of GDP growth—in Q1, all growth was attributable to AI and federal government spending. It’s propelled corporate earnings higher too.

Only time will tell whether we’ve been in a period of irrational exuberance or that the markets have been forecasting a period ahead of unusual prosperity.

While market bottoms tend to occur in a flash, tops are usually longer drawn-out processes. Since the U.S. stock markets now appear to be priced for perfection, right at TRAC™ ceilings, with a current seasonal headwind and rising interest rates, we suspect a rollover is imminent.

Too Many Record Highs

Primarily because of rising inflation, yields on 30-year bonds have increased to 15 to 20-year highs in the U.S., UK, France, and Japan. While the correlation between stocks and bonds has been quite low historically, they’ve moved much more in tandem since 2022. If rates keep rising, bonds should fall and, in turn, share prices too.

Since Producer Price increases are running so high, record-high profit margins are vulnerable, especially since companies may be unlikely to pass price increases along. Net profit margins (now nearly 14%) are cyclical, having fallen to 8% or below on 5 separate occasions in the last 25 years. Free cash flows are already under pressure because capital spending on AI projects has surged.

Earnings expectations appear too high. Long-term growth estimates are about 19%. Previous peaks in expectations occurred in 2000, 2018, and 2021, and each subsequently led to substantial market declines.

The stock market is overly concentrated. Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) alone are over 15% of the S&P 500. The top 10 stocks now exceed a record high 40% of the index value. Nvidia’s market cap alone has surpassed the entire Russell 2000 small cap index. Concentration may be masking the broader picture. During several recent record high days, more stocks declined than rose.

Allocations to stocks remain at record highs, which has also corresponded with market tops.

Asset managers remain overweight equities and individual investors have been using disproportionate amounts of leverage. Buying on margin and call option buying are at record highs, as is exposure to leveraged ETFs. The Market Vane Bullish Percentage index (an indicator that measures trader sentiment) is as high as it ever gets. An abundance of market optimism usually does not auger well for future returns.

The Cypress Capital Market Risk Index, that gauges vulnerability to major market drawdowns, hit 100%, its most elevated level, a mark that was only achieved near the market peaks in 1973, 2000, 2007, and 2021. In each of those instances, a much more attractive market risk level, below 40%, presented itself withing 24 months.

Furthermore, the seasonal period just ahead typically provides poor stock market performance. May to November has underperformed historically, but it’s much worse during a midterm election year. There’s only been one up May-to-November period for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year since the early 1960s. And the average decline from intra-year highs is 18%. Though the period that follows, through the following April, has had double-digit annualized returns with no down periods since 1950.

For the Record

With a GDP growth rate of -0.1% for Q1, Canada just triggered a technical recession—two consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. The Purchasing Managers Index, based on surveys of executives, is showing contraction for the eurozone, though it’s still above 50, indicating expansion, in the U.S.

Economic weakness should ultimately act to suppress inflation. Because major economies, such as China, Japan, and Europe rely so heavily on oil and gas imports, this alone should quell growth thereby suppressing inflation—high prices are the cure for high prices.

As such, we continue to hedge, holding short positions (where authorized) or inverse long ETFs.

We have been anticipating a recession because the yield curve previously inverted, monetary growth has been weak, and unemployment is likely to rise. Our economic composite, TEC™, alerted us to a U.S. recession some time ago, though one has yet to occur.

While the current bout of inflation may carry forward for several months, it should dissipate. Ultimately, secular forces from high debt levels, poor demographics, and AI-related job losses and competitive threats should lower growth and result in disinflation. Though, if governments excessively print money to cover high budget deficits, inflation could remain problematic.

Our Model Portfolios

Our managed accounts are invested based on one or more of our Models (particular investment strategies with notional allocations of securities). A managed account’s holdings will generally be similar to its applicable Model’s, but may not hold all of them based on client-specific factors (income requirements, tax-related considerations, requests/restrictions, and cash available for purchases) and/or market forces which impact specific investment decisions from time to time.

The following descriptions of the holdings in our managed accounts are intended only to explain the reasons that we have made, and continue to hold, these investments in the accounts we manage for you and are not intended as advice or recommendations with respect to purchasing, selling or holding the securities described. Below, we discuss each of our new holdings and updates on key holdings if there have been material developments.

All Cap Model

The All Cap Model combines selections from our large cap strategy (Global Insight) with our small and medium cap ideas. We generally prefer large cap companies for their superior liquidity and lower volatility. The smaller cap positions tend to be less liquid and more volatile; however, we may hold these positions where they are cheaper, trading at relatively greater discounts to our Fair Market Value (FMV) estimates, making their risk/reward profiles favourable.

Orca Energy Group (ORXIF) recently announced that it entered into an agreement to divest its Tanzanian business, along with its associated commitments and liabilities. Should the transaction be completed, the company would be positioned to distribute a significant portion of its cash holdings to shareholders.

Our large cap positions are summarized in the Global Insight section.

Global Insight (Large Cap) Model

Global Insight portfolios hold large cap stocks (typically with market caps over $5 billion at the time of purchase but may include those in the $2-5 billion range) where portfolios are managed Long/Short or Long only. At an average of less than 70 cents-on-the-dollar versus our FMV estimates, our Global Insight holdings appear much cheaper, in aggregate, than the overall market.

In the last few months, we have made several changes in our large-cap positions. We bought Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), United Health Services (UHS),and WSP Global (WSPOF). We sold Cenovus Energy (CVE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR), Veolia Environement (VEOEY), and ServiceNow (NOW) (after buying it recently), after each ran up TRAC™ceilings near our FMV estimates and Henkel (HENKY) after it inflected down from a TRAC™ceiling.

Keurig Dr Pepper is one of the largest beverage companies in the U.S. Its portfolio includes Dr Pepper, A&W root beer, Snapple, Ghost energy drinks, Mott’s, and the Keurig coffee brewer. Last August, the company announced the acquisition of Peet’s Coffee. Investors reacted negatively. However, the acquisition appears to be a smart addition to the portfolio, especially in a post-GLP world where calorie-light coffee and energy drinks have become preferred indulgences. Though integration risk remains as with any substantial acquisition. The company now plans to split into two companies, Global Coffee Co. and Beverage Co., focused on its iconic non-coffee beverage brands. Investors have started to see the vision. Our FMV estimate is $38.

Eli Lilly and Company’s recent results have been astounding: Q1 revenue rose 56% on strong sales of key products such as Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ebglyss, and Jaypirca. Free cash flow was nearly $12 billion for the last twelve months. The company’s “key products” group, which is driving growth, generated over $13 billion of revenue, up from just $1 billion at the start of 2023. Lilly has a 60% U.S. market share in incretin analogues, and just surpassed Novo Nordisk (NVO)’s international market share. Volatility in the company’s share price has picked up around results relating to its and its key competitor’s GLP-1 efficacy. The price has risen to our $1,100 FMV estimate, but with over 30 therapies in Phase 3 and exciting technology such as VERVE-102 gene editing therapy, we are likely to raise our estimated value.

United Health Services provides acute care through hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioural health services, primarily through inpatient centres. First quarter results were weak due to weather, a soft flu season, and volatility in state directed payments, health insurance exchange mix, and supplemental Medicaid. Medicaid-related operations accounted for 29% of 2025 revenue; however, looking at the core business model, there’s steady demand for acute and behavioural health care which should translate to mid-single-digit top-line growth and high-single-digit earnings growth. The move into virtual care, with the recent acquisition of Talkspace (TALK), a leader in virtual outpatient behavioural health care with over 6,000 licensed professionals, is underappreciated. The transaction should be accretive in the first 12 months post-close. Our FMV estimate is $240.

WSP Global is one of the world’s largest engineering consulting firms. The share price has been highly correlated to the software sector, investors seemingly believing that AI poses an existential threat. This appears misguided since AI should be additive for WSP. First, AI enables better design, boosts productivity, and enhances customer relationships. Second, WSP is winning data centre business, from site due diligence to data centre design, with contract win rates of 75%. Data centre power demand has exposed outdated infrastructure around the world; WSP is seeing solid growth in the U.S. and was recently appointed to the Northern Powergrid’s Engineering Services Framework to support the delivery of power to 8 million UK residents across design, planning, engineering, and commissioning. Top-line growth should be mid-single-digits and free cash flow should hit $2 billion by 2030. Our FMV estimate is $250.

Multifaceted Diversification

We can construct portfolios with multiple unique return drivers—strategies that differ in style and approach—based on bottom-up fundamentals, macro tools, or pure quantitative analysis. This can provide exposure to different styles and asset classes beyond just stock and bond indexes. The approach aims to limit volatility and drawdowns by combining investment strategies, especially where returns are less correlated. The goal is to outperform through economic cycles with low correlation, therefore less susceptibility to market index declines.

The benefits of multifaceted diversification are not only from different ways to perform but also from a portfolio comprised of strategies that are less correlated. So that when a strategy underperforms, it’s less likely to occur at the same time as another strategy, which softens the volatility and drawdowns of the overall investment portfolio.

If you wish to discuss whether our multifaceted diversification approach might apply to your personal situation and investment accounts(s), please contact your investment representative.

Global Tactical Allocation Model

Our Global Tactical Allocation Model (GTAM) investment process combines macroeconomic analysis with valuation and momentum. ETFs (exchange traded funds) are used to gain exposure to 4 broad asset classes: Equities—major markets, emerging markets, sectors, styles, private equity; Fixed Income—bonds issued by governments, investment grade corporations, high-yield issuers, as well as mortgages, and bond indexes; Real Assets—real estate, infrastructure, renewable energy; and Commodities—Precious Metals or Oil. GTAM emphasizes ETFs that should outperform based on the macro environment, are selling at attractive absolute and relative valuations, possess good relative price momentum, and are at TRAC™ floors.

Current exposures are: Equities (83%); Real Asets (17%), Fixed Income (7%); and Commodities (none). Its current broad themes are international equities, software, consumer staples, insurance, healthcare, and forestry.

Quantitative Investment Models

Quantitative equity strategies commonly select securities based on systematic, rules-based decisions, using technology to uncover and exploit historical statistically significant anomalies. Our quantitative equity strategies employ proprietary and systematic processes that rank large cap stocks based on factors such as relative valuation, operating metrics (quality), financial strength, and price momentum. The two models noted below select approximately 30-40 holdings from the top-ranked stocks in the model’s respective universe. TRAC™ is utilized to optimize entry and exit points.

The Quantitative Global Value Model (QGVM) invests in large-cap equities from around the world. The U.S., Canada, and Japan currently represent the top 3 countries. The top 3 sectors are Financials (25%), Information Technology (20%), and Consumer Staples (15%). The companies held in QGVM currently have the following characteristics: median forward P/E of 17.1x, ROE and ROIC of 23% and 13%, respectively, and dividend yield of 1.8%.

The Quantitative Canadian Value Model (QCVM) restricts its universe to Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite. The top 3 sectors are currently Information Technology (22%), Materials (21%), and Financials (19%). The companies held in QCVM currently have the following characteristics: median forward P/E of 13.2x, ROE 15%, and dividend yield of 1.5%.

Income Model

Our high-yield investment strategy has an average current annual yield (income we receive as a percent of current market value of income securities held) of about 5.0%, and most of our holdings—corporate bonds/debentures, preferred shares, REITs, and high-yielding common shares—trade below our FMV estimates.

U.S. high-yield corporate bonds ((ICE BofA Index)) yield 6.9%. The spread versus government bonds appears too narrow, less than half the historical average of 5.5%. A widening to the average implies a yield closer to 10%. If the economy weakens and corporate delinquencies increase, spreads could expand even further. As such, we continue to carry cash in most of our income accounts, awaiting better entry points.

We sold Diversified Royalty (DIVRF) when it inflected down from a TRAC™ ceiling in line with our FMV estimate.

Investment Grade Income Model

Our investment grade strategy utilizes a systematic process to rank Canadian investment-grade rated corporate bonds based on their duration, yield, financial strength, and momentum.

Currently, positioning has emphasized longer-dated bonds—duration is 10.3 years, 4.7 years more than the S&P Canada Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index. The average yield-to-maturity is 4.8% versus 4.1% for the index.

Records Were Made to be Broken

Markets should rise over time, achieving ever-higher record levels. Earnings rise as the economy grows and assuming fair valuation levels are maintained, new highs ought to be expected. However, market rises don’t normally occur in an up-and-to-the-right straight line. Ebbs and flows are the norm, frequently sizeable ones.

When profit margins, optimism, and exposure to stocks are all at record-high levels, near-term record highs in the markets shouldn’t be anticipated, especially when valuations are so high and the prospect of a peak in the economic cycle is elevated.

The markets appear ready for a timeout.

Randall Abramson, CFA

References

1. In this letter, ROE, ROIC, dividend yield, yield, and yield to maturity, are calculated for the respective Model portfolio based on the holdings as at the date of this letter of an actual representative account managed in accordance with such Model. These figures are neither a measure of results achieved nor projected future performance. The Model’s holdings, and therefore ROE, ROIC, and yields, are subject to change at any time and may differ among accounts managed based on the same Model.

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Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.