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Oil prices will rise even higher regardless of whether the Iran war ends, U.S. economic and political commentator Peter Schiff predicted during an interview with Fox News Digital on Wednesday, noting that he expects an economic “downturn.”

Schiff, chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management and host of “The Peter Schiff Show” podcast, described the elevated prices as “a tax on the economy,” opining, “I don’t think it’s over.”

“I think oil prices are headed significantly higher from here — not just oil, but everything related to, to energy,” he explained, “especially… diesel, which is gonna have a particularly harmful impact because that is the fuel… that is used in, in agriculture, it’s used in transportation, all the trucks are diesel,” he noted, adding that this will “affect the price of pretty much everything.”

The AAA national average price for diesel recently hit the highest recorded average price of $6.5276 as of Tuesday, but inched down to $6.5141 by Thursday.

While Americans have been facing elevated fuel prices amid the Iran war, Schiff also pointed to the Federal Reserve as part of the reason for the energy prices.

SENATORS PRESS PRESIDENT TRUMP TO RELEASE HOME HEATING OIL RESERVES AMID SOARING PRICES

Peter Schiff at the London Blockchain Conference at The Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre on June 2, 2023, in London. (Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for London Blockchain Conference )

“But the Fed’s monetary policy has been much too loose for much too long,” he said. “The quarter-point rate hike… last week is too little too late to really derail the inflation train. And I think you’re gonna see a lot of upward pressure on all prices” due to “Fed policy,” Schiff explained. 

He also pointed out that the U.S. will eventually “have to stop selling” oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

“And I think the same thing is gonna happen with other countries that have been liquidating reserves in order to… artificially suppress prices,” he said, noting, “imagine what happens if we have to start replenishing those depleted reserves. That would put even more upward pressure on prices.”

The supply of crude oil in the U.S. SPR has fallen significantly this year from over 400 million barrels down to more than 284 million as of the most recent data posted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Look, I think the prices will be lower if we manage to get ourselves outta this war. How much lower it’s hard to say. Because I think even if we have some kinda deal to end the war, I don’t know that you could trust it,” he said. “I think that there’s gonna be a risk premium for many years now because you have no idea when the war would resume.”

US ECONOMY ‘WORSE’ OFF THAN WHEN BIDEN DEPARTED, PETER SCHIFF SAYS, WARNING OF 2028 DEM SOCIALIST ‘THREAT’

“Maybe we get some kind of deal, a ceasefire or something, but… we’ve seen these deals before and… they immediately blow up,” he noted.

Schiff said he believes “oil prices are going up regardless of the outcome of the war and whether we end it or not. It’s just that if the war continues, I think the prices will be higher than if it doesn’t continue,” he said, predicting that prices will increase “either way.”

President Donald Trump asserted in part of a Truth Social post last week, “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.”

Schiff expects unemployment to rise and consumer spending to fall, speculating that the Fed may “not raise interest rates as much as they should to contain inflation. In fact, they may even end up cutting rates if the economy is weak enough.”

“If the Fed tries to stimulate the economy or fight rising unemployment by rate cuts or quantitative easing, that’s gonna fuel the fire that’s already burning in, in consumer prices,” energy included, he noted.

IRAN WAR COSTS US HOUSEHOLDS $860 MORE IN HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, ECONOMIST SAYS

Peter Schiff onstage during “How a ‘Digital Gold’ System Should Really Work” at The Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre on June 2, 2023, in London. (Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for London Blockchain Conference )

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Fox News Digital reached out to the White House on Thursday.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond jumped more than 3 basis points to 5.444%, marking its highest since 2004.The 10-year US Treasury yield, the benchmark of the $29-trillion Treasury market that anchors pricing for virtually all financial assets globally, touched a new post-financial-crisis high of 5.145%. The two-year bond yield, which moves in tandem with Fed rate announcement expectations, meanwhile rose above 4.9%.

Bond yields have been soaring for months as the raging US-Iran conflict sparked a skyrocketing rally in oil prices, while growth proved resilient and investors have fretted about high levels of government debt. Notably, bond prices move inversely to bond yields, so rising yields reflect falling bond prices.

The S&P Global services PMI rose to 58.7 in September from 56.5 in August, marking its highest reading in nearly five years. The manufacturing PMI also climbed to 56.7, reaching its strongest level in more than four years.

This strengthened expectations of the US Federal Reserve hiking its interest rates in the near term. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 66% chance of an October rate hike, up from 53% earlier in the day. A month earlier, the odds were below 10%.

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The bond selloff was not limited to the US. Japan’s 10-year bond yield jumped to highest since August 1996. Indian government bonds also soared sharply.
Also read | India bonds pummelled after Treasury rout, traders raise rate hike bets

What lies ahead?

Strong PMI data and a weak US government bond sale had compounded Wednesday’s global rout, and all the ingredients are now in place for a rise in long-term interest rates, said AXA’s Chief Economist Gilles Moec, as quoted by Reuters.

The analyst noted that inflation is high, central bankers are giving hawkish messages, there is competition from the funding needs of the tech sector and there are no reassuring signs on the US debt trajectory. “They are all fairly big macro issues and on top of that you have the binary geopolitical issue of what is happening in the Middle East,” Moec further said.

There is definitely angst in the bond market and there are no two ways about it, the report quoted Pictet Asset Management strategist Arun Sai. “We are going through a period where the steady state equilibrium has been challenged in a number of ways, and it’s competing narratives, and it’s not yet obvious which of these is right,” he added.

Also read | Why did market crash today?

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Dunkin’ is giving away 1 million free coffees to customers Thursday, kicking off a stretch of promotions and collaborations tied to National Coffee Day that has already drawn long lines at some locations earlier this week.

Through the limited-time promotion, the coffee and donut chain will give away free hot or iced coffee to the first 1 million customers who claim the offer Thursday, September 24. Dunkin’ plans to reveal the specific promo code needed to redeem the offer on its social media accounts midday Thursday. Customers can then enter that code in the “Offers & Rewards” section of the Dunkin’ app to claim their free coffee, with the offer redeemable through Sunday, September 27.

Food influencer Snackolator offered advice for customers hoping to secure the freebie before it runs out, emphasizing the importance of preparation ahead of the promo code’s release. “Make sure you have the Dunkin’ app and an account set up early to grab it quickly – they tend to last a good 30-45 minutes, but the app runs slow, so if you don’t sign up ahead of time, it can be tough to do it when it goes live!” the influencer said.

Thursday’s giveaway is only the opening act in a broader stretch of Dunkin’ promotions planned for the coming days. In honor of National Coffee Day on Tuesday, September 29, Dunkin’ Rewards members will be able to claim a free medium hot or iced coffee with any purchase made through the Dunkin’ app.

The National Coffee Day celebrations also include a new collaboration between Dunkin’ and outdoor retailer L.L.Bean, marking the two brands’ first-ever partnership. Released earlier this week to coincide with the first day of fall, the limited-edition collection includes a miniature coffee cup cozy styled after L.L.Bean’s signature fisherman sweater pattern, though reimagined in Dunkin’s bright pink and orange color scheme rather than the outdoor retailer’s traditional navy-and-white combination. The small coffee sweater was offered free to customers, but demand quickly outpaced supply. At one Dunkin’ location in midtown Manhattan, a barista told the New York Post that the store had already run out of the promotional item by 6:30 that morning, an experience echoed by numerous customers across social media.

Customers who missed out on the free coffee cozy will still have a chance to purchase a full-sized version of the collaboration starting on National Coffee Day itself. A human-size L.L.Bean x Dunkin’ sweater will be available for $79.95 beginning September 29. Additional items in the collaboration include a pink-and-orange version of L.L.Bean’s classic Boat and Tote bag, priced at $59.95, and a smaller, coffee-cup-sized tote bag priced at $24.95, both of which will be available exclusively through Dunkin’s website.

Dunkin’ Chief Marketing Officer Jill Nelson described the rationale behind pairing the coffee chain with the century-old outdoor apparel retailer, framing the collaboration around shared everyday rituals between the two brands’ customer bases. “We love collaborations that feel authentic to the way people actually live,” Nelson said. “From morning coffee runs to weekends outside, Dunkin’ and L.L.Bean have been part of many of the same routines and traditions for decades. Bringing them together just felt right.”

Beyond the merchandise collaboration, Dunkin’ has said it is partnering with L.L.Bean for a full week of additional freebies and festivities leading up to and including National Coffee Day, extending the promotional partnership well beyond Thursday’s coffee giveaway and the initial merchandise drop.

Thursday’s 1 million free coffee promotion arrives as Dunkin’ continues leaning into large-scale customer giveaways as a marketing strategy, a tactic the chain has used periodically to drive app downloads, rewards program sign-ups and overall customer engagement. Given the reported 30-to-45-minute window in which similar past promotions have run out, customers hoping to claim Thursday’s free coffee are likely to need to act quickly once the promo code is released at midday.

With National Coffee Day itself still five days away and additional Dunkin’ Rewards promotions and L.L.Bean merchandise releases still to come, this week’s rollout of free coffee, limited-edition apparel and ongoing app-based rewards offers represents one of Dunkin’s more extensive promotional pushes tied to the annual coffee holiday, reflecting the broader consumer enthusiasm that has already been on display at stores nationwide since the collaboration’s initial launch earlier this week.

JACKSON, MISS. — Raybern Foods, a maker of heat-and-serve deli sandwiches, will invest $7.1 million to expand its operations in Shannon, Miss. The expansion is expected to create 70 jobs.

“Raybern Foods is proud to continue growing our operations in Shannon and investing in the community we have called home for more than a decade,” said Doug Hall, senior director of business development for Raybern Foods. “This expansion will allow us to increase production capacity to meet growing demand for our products while creating new opportunities for workers in the area. We appreciate the support of the Mississippi Development Authority and Lee County as we continue to grow our business in Mississippi.”

Founded in California in 1978, Raybern Foods expanded to Shannon in 2015. The company’s products include more than a dozen varieties of frozen and refrigerated sandwiches sold in stores nationally. Earlier this year the company introduced frozen sliders in three varieties: cheeseburger smashed sliders, birria sliders, and ham and Swiss sliders. 

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Rolls-Royce has moved forward with a deal to power a new fleet of Airbus long-haul jets for Philippine Airlines.

The FTSE-100 firm will provide 18 engines for nine new Airbus A350-1000 aircraft in a deal worth “hundreds of millions of pounds”.

The agreement, once finalised, also includes a maintenance package, meaning Rolls-Royce will continue servicing and monitoring the engines throughout their operational life, officials said.

The government welcomed the deal, saying it would bring “good quality jobs” to the company’s Derby base.

The order was first announced as a memorandum of understanding at the Farnborough International Airshow in July.

At the time, Rob Watson, president of civil airspace at Rolls-Royce, said the company was “proud to continue strengthening our long-standing relationship with Philippine Airlines”.

While the deal is described as being worth “hundreds of millions”, the precise value has not been confirmed.

Airbus designs and manufactures wings for all its commercial aircraft at its Broughton site in North Wales.

Minister for trade Anas Sarwar said: “This news shows British engineering is flying high with world-class innovation that puts our companies at the front of the pack.

“Building these engines and wings brings good quality jobs to Derby and Broughton, and means UK expertise is at the heart of thousands of flights by one of the fastest-growing airlines around the world.”

The engine involved, the Trent XWB-97, can operate using a 50% sustainable aviation fuel blend, with plans for it to run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel in the future.

This order follows Philippine Airlines’s previous order for nine Trent XWB-97-powered Airbus A350-1000 in 2023.