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Has Dalal Street’s near term outlook improved? HSBC lists 4 headwinds, 3 tailwinds to watch out for

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Has Dalal Street's near term outlook improved? HSBC lists 4 headwinds, 3 tailwinds to watch out for
The Indian stock market remained resilient despite global macroeconomic challenges, recording modest gains of 2% in July after a volatile month, and the near-term outlook is now improving, assuming no re-escalation of geopolitical conflicts, HSBC Mutual Fund said in its latest report.

HSBC expects India’s investment cycle to be on a medium-term uptrend supported by government investment in infrastructure, support to manufacturing and pickup in private investments. It added that announcements of potential trade deals with the European Union and US should also support exports.

India’s corporate earnings recovery continues with strong Q1 FY27 results growth till date and more earnings beat than misses over consensus estimates, HSBC noted, adding that Nifty valuations are now in-line with 10-year average. “We remain constructive on Indian equities on a longer-term basis. Near-term outlook is now also improving assuming no re-escalation of geo-political conflicts,” it added.

Explaining the macro-view, HSBC Mutual Fund said the re-escalations in the Middle East that effectively ended the interim ceasefire agreement spooked investors, while the disruption was compounded by a blockade in the Red Sea. With stable fiscal deficit for Q1 FY27, HSBC believes the government should be able to boost infrastructure spending in the second half of the ongoing FY27, although the full year may be flattish given the impact of the conflict on government finances.

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Interest rate cuts by RBI, GST rate cut, and income tax rate cut announced by the Union government in FY26 should support consumption in FY27, according to the mutual fund house, which however noted that the risk of a below normal monsoon with negative consequences for food production and higher food inflation remains.


HSBC has listed 4 key headwinds to watch for Dalal Street’s trajectory in the future.
1) Global commodity pricesBenign global prices of crude oil and fertilisers have been a positive for India from inflation, fiscal deficit and corporate margins perspective in 2024 and 2025. However, HSBC said that these trends have now reversed due to geopolitical conflict.

This will likely be a headwind for India in 2026, according to the mutual fund house. This comes as oil prices remain elevated amid fresh escalations in the Middle East war, but sharply lower than the highs above $120 per barrel which were seen earlier this year during the raging war.

2) Weak global growth

Overall weak global growth is also likely to remain a headwind for India’s demand going forward, according to HSBC. It added that this is driven by a risk of tariffs, general policy uncertainty, mercantilist policies of certain countries and geo-political conflicts.

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3) Below normal monsoon

Rainfall in July was 1% above the long-period average, but that recovery followed a severely deficient June. By July 31, cumulative rainfall since June 1 was still 12.6% below normal. While the trend is slightly changing, HSBC Mutual Fund said a below-normal monsoon can lead to higher food inflation.

This can have a negative impact on consumption and government budget, according to the mutual fund house.

Also read | The umbrella seller as economic forecaster

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4) Sharp slowdown in government capex

Sharp slowdown in government capex was listed as another key prospective for headwinds for the Indian stock market.

Meanwhile, here are the 3 key tailwinds that HSBC sees for Dalal Street.

1) Corporate earnings recovery

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Despite the latest worries around US-Iran tensions, the undertone of the market is mildly bullish, driven by the better-than-expected Q1 results. With the earnings season coming to an end this week, the vast majority of companies have reported earnings growth that has beaten expectations, according to analysts.

HSBC said that corporate earnings have seen consistent downgrades from the second half of FY25, driven by slowing government capex, liquidity tightening and consumption slowdown in key sectors. This was one of the key reasons for FII outflows over the past couple of years.

“With RBI’s regulatory easing, government measures on taxation (GST/ income tax) and lower tariffs by US, we see earnings growth recovering well,” the mutual fund house said.

2) Recovery in private capex

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Industry capacity utilisation based on RBI survey data is at a reasonably high level and indicates potential for increase in private capex going forward, HSBC said while listing out a possible tailwind for the Indian stock market.

Also, it added that continued expansion of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is likely to further increase private investments in targeted sectors. “We also expect higher private capex in renewable energy,” it said.

3) Trade deals

Potential trade deals with EU and US would be a tailwind for Indian manufacturing over the medium term and should encourage private sector investments, according to HSBC Mutual Fund.

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It noted that Nifty now trades at 18.3x 1-year forward PE. This is now at a 6% discount to its 5-year average and a 2% discount to its 10-year average. IT, real estate and automobiles were named the best performing sectors in July. Healthcare also outperformed Nifty, while metals, FMCG, infrastructure, banks and telecom underperformed Nifty. Utilities, energy and industrials were the worst performing sectors.

Also read | CAS chaos splits Sensex and Nifty: How long will this last?

(With inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Doctors Urge Adults To Get Tested For Lipoprotein(a), The ‘Sneaky’ Cholesterol Tied To Heart Risk Now

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Cardiologists are urging adults to ask their doctors about a blood test that most people have never heard of, one that measures a genetically inherited form of cholesterol linked to heart attacks and strokes but left off the standard lipid panel most patients receive at routine checkups.

The substance, known as lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), is a distinct cholesterol particle that circulates in the bloodstream and functions as a major independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, according to Ryan Smith, a cardiologist at Orlando Health Heart and Vascular Institute. Unlike LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides, the three markers typically included in a standard lipid panel, Lp(a) is not part of routine bloodwork, meaning many people go years, or a lifetime, without knowing their level.

That gap in testing has drawn increasing attention from the medical community. In March, a coalition of medical organizations, including the American Heart Association, released updated cholesterol management guidelines recommending, for the first time, that every adult be tested for Lp(a) at least once in their lifetime. The test can be ordered by a primary care physician as an addition to a standard lipid profile or other routine bloodwork, and it is now largely covered by major insurance plans, removing what had previously been a financial barrier for many patients.

Roughly one in five people have an elevated Lp(a) level, according to figures cited by cardiologists, and like other forms of high cholesterol, it typically produces no symptoms until it contributes to a blockage that triggers a heart attack or stroke. An Lp(a) level above 125 nanomoles per liter, sometimes measured as 50 milligrams per deciliter, has been shown to raise the risk of heart disease and stroke, with that risk potentially doubling at levels around 250 nanomoles per liter, or 100 milligrams per deciliter.

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Lp(a) poses a particular danger because of its molecular structure. Much like excess LDL cholesterol, elevated Lp(a) can accumulate in the arteries and contribute to atherosclerosis, a narrowing of blood vessels that restricts blood flow to vital organs. But because Lp(a) carries an additional protein component called apolipoprotein A, it tends to be stickier and more prone to forming fatty plaques than LDL cholesterol, according to Smith. The particle can also interfere with the body’s natural clot-breakdown process, potentially increasing the likelihood of blood clots, and it carries pro-inflammatory molecules that can damage the aortic valve and contribute to arterial hardening over time.

For decades, Lp(a) testing was left out of standard cholesterol guidance largely because there was little clarity on what patients or doctors could actually do about an elevated result, according to Jeffrey Berger, director of the Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease at NYU Langone Heart. Researchers still do not know definitively whether lowering Lp(a) levels reduces cardiovascular risk, though Berger said ongoing research and drug trials increasingly point toward that possibility. Because Lp(a) levels are driven almost entirely by genetics, they generally do not respond to the lifestyle changes, such as diet and exercise, that can meaningfully lower other types of cholesterol.

Even without a clear treatment pathway, physicians say the case for testing has become increasingly clear. Berger said a growing body of evidence has repeatedly shown how elevated Lp(a) raises the likelihood of a cardiac event, making it important for patients to know whether they carry the genetic risk factor so they can more aggressively manage the cardiovascular risks that are modifiable.

Certain populations face a higher likelihood of elevated Lp(a) levels, given the trait’s strong genetic basis. People of African or South Asian descent tend to show the highest rates, followed by white, Hispanic and East Asian populations, according to cardiologists. The American Heart Association specifically recommends testing for anyone with a family history of high Lp(a), a personal or family history of early cardiovascular disease, defined as before age 55 in men and before 65 in women, and those with familial hypercholesterolemia, an inherited condition that causes elevated LDL levels.

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For most people, a single Lp(a) test provides a reliable, lifelong measure of risk, since the level typically remains stable over time, Smith said. Exceptions include people with thyroid disorders, a kidney condition called nephrotic syndrome, certain acute inflammatory conditions, and those who are pregnant or in menopause, all of which can temporarily elevate Lp(a) readings. Once those conditions resolve or are treated, Lp(a) levels generally return to their genetic baseline.

Because no treatments currently exist that meaningfully lower Lp(a) on their own, doctors recommend that people with elevated levels focus on aggressively managing other cardiovascular risk factors, particularly blood pressure, blood sugar and LDL cholesterol. Research suggests that lowering LDL by an additional 20 milligrams per deciliter or more below the standard target of 100 milligrams per deciliter can help offset some of the added risk associated with high Lp(a). The American Heart Association recommends at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, a diet rich in plant-based foods, avoiding smoking, maintaining a healthy weight, and getting seven to nine hours of sleep nightly as foundational steps for cholesterol management.

Patients with high Lp(a) are often prescribed statins to more aggressively lower LDL cholesterol, and some physicians may add ezetimibe, a non-statin medication that blocks cholesterol absorption in the small intestine and can modestly reduce Lp(a) as well. Others may prescribe a PCSK-9 inhibitor, a class of drug that helps the liver clear LDL cholesterol from the blood and may offer a modest reduction in Lp(a) levels; a newly approved oral version of the drug has shown efficacy comparable to the injectable PCSK-9 inhibitors already available.

Looking ahead, a new class of medications currently in late-stage clinical trials is designed to directly target the RNA responsible for producing lipoprotein(a) in the body. Early data suggests these drugs can meaningfully lower Lp(a) levels, though it remains unclear whether that reduction will translate into fewer heart attacks and strokes.

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For now, physicians say the priority is simply raising awareness of the test itself. Smith said Lp(a) should be viewed as one piece of a broader conversation with a doctor about overall cardiovascular risk, one best raised as early as possible. “Prevention is really supreme in our field,” he said.

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How Liquid Are Private-Credit Funds? It Depends How You Define ‘Liquidity’

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How Liquid Are Private-Credit Funds? It Depends How You Define ‘Liquidity’

Wealthy investors who piled into private-credit funds have spent months trying to cash out their shares and still can’t. Fund managers have sought to reassure them by highlighting the vehicles’ ample “liquidity” to meet redemptions and remain healthy.

It would help if everyone could agree on what that word actually means.

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Crude oil stocks in US SPR fall to over four-decade low

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Crude oil stocks in US SPR fall to over four-decade low

The U.S. government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at its lowest level since 1983 as inventories that were already low before the Iran war come under increasing pressure.

Data released by the Department of Energy on Monday showed that the number of barrels of oil in the SPR declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, ending the week at 298.7 million barrels in inventory.

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That is the lowest level in the EIA’s weekly data on SPR stocks since January 1983.

SPR inventories have fallen this year after President Donald Trump in March authorized the release of up to 172 million barrels in response to the impact of the Iran war on energy supplies, as Iranian attacks have slowed the flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

TRUMP BLASTS BIG OIL FOR ‘MAKING TOO MUCH MONEY’

Empty oil storage units.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell to the lowest level since 1983 last week. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The Trump administration announced the releases on March 11, 2026, while EIA data shows that the SPR had about 415.4 million barrels of oil in inventory during the middle of March – with inventories now down about 116 million barrels as of early August.

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The latest SPR releases follow a historic drawdown over the last several years, beginning with the release of 180 million barrels that was authorized by the Biden administration in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Inventories had been around 600 million barrels at the start of 2022 and fell to 375 million barrels by the end of the year. 

FORGET GASOLINE: THIS OVERLOOKED FUEL COULD RAISE THE PRICE OF NEARLY EVERYTHING YOU BUY

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was established in response to the oil shocks of the 1970s. (Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

When SPR levels hit a low of about 347 million barrels in the summer of 2023, they began to gradually recover and reached 400 million barrels in May 2025. They hit a recent peak of over 415 million barrels in February, before the latest round of drawdowns began in March.

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The SPR was created in 1975 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act in response to the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74, which was imposed by Arab countries in OPEC as retaliation for the U.S. resupplying Israel’s military during the Yom Kippur War.

The SPR was initially intended to have a capacity of 1 billion barrels of oil, although it never reached that level. Currently, the SPR has a congressionally-authorized maximum of about 714 million barrels of oil, while its highest ever inventory was 726.6 million barrels in December 2009 when it had an authorized capacity of 727 million barrels. 

US OIL RESERVES DROP TOWARDS REAGAN-ERA LOWS, ‘SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AT THE PUMP’ COMING, EXPERTS WARN

Worker at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

A contractor works on a crude oil pipeline at the Department of Energy’s Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas. (Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

SPR reserves are stored at four locations thousands of feet below ground in salt caverns because those geological formations are more advantageous than surface facilities in terms of cost and maintenance, in addition to environmental and security concerns.

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Geological pressures naturally seal cracks that emerge in salt formations to prevent leaking oil from seeping out, while the temperature difference keeps oil circulating to maintain its quality. Salt caverns can also be enlarged to fit precise dimensions through a mining process in which the salt is dissolved using fresh water.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report in May which warned that Congress and the Department of Energy need to develop a unified long-term plan to address the SPR’s maintenance needs and a strategy for managing inventories into the future.

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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Republicans in Congress and Trump enacted in July 2025, included $171 million for acquiring petroleum products to be stored in the SPR, as well as $218 million to maintain the SPR.

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Rubrik stock hits 52-week high at 99.76 USD

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Hypoport H1 2026 slides: EBIT jumps 20% as margins expand

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If You Get in a Car Crash, the Risk Is Growing Your Insurance Won’t Pay

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If You Get in a Car Crash, the Risk Is Growing Your Insurance Won’t Pay

Americans got into more than six million traffic accidents last year. 

Depending on the type of crash, the chance of getting a payout from your insurer has become increasingly remote.

Auto insurers didn’t pay out on 45% of auto liability and medical claims they resolved last year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of thousands of company regulatory filings. That rate might change slightly as more claims are resolved, but it is up from around one in three, or 35%, of such claims a decade ago.

Americans are required to pay for car insurance as a condition of driving. Yet often, the insurance doesn’t provide the financial backstop that car owners were expecting.

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Taylor Farms recalls jalapeno products after salmonella outbreak

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A curved white sign with a black sideways oval on it containing the words Taylor Farms in white with a green leaf below. The sign is on a mown grass lawn with trees in the background and with a white car parked to the side.

The jalapeno recall came after Coast Citrus Distributors, which supplied the company with its peppers, recalled its own fresh jalapeno because of the salmonella concerns.

Taylor Farms said a grower in Sinaloa, Mexico, had been identified as the source of the outbreak and that it “is no longer sourcing products from this farmer and will be filling orders from alternative suppliers”.

“Consumers who have any recalled product should discard it immediately and not consume it. Refunds are available at the location of purchase,” it added.

Eating food contaminated with salmonella usually leads to illness within 12 to 72 hours, external. Symptoms include diarrhoea, fever and stomach pain, according to the US Food and Drug Administration.

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The recall includes products such as pico de gallo salsa, several types of guacamole, burritos, spicy sandwiches and fresh sliced jalapenos.

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Existing Home Sales among economic data due Tuesday

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Next announces major Cribbs Causeway upgrade plus Bath and Body Works set to open

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The retailer operates Bath & Body Works in the UK through its partnership model

Bath and Body Works is opening at Cribbs

Bath and Body Works is opening at Cribbs(Image: Next)

Next is planning a “major upgrade” of its store at Cribbs Causeway near Bristol and is also opening a standalone Bath and Body Works outlet at the shopping centre, it has announced.

The retailer, which operates Bath and Body Works in the UK through its partnership model, has confirmed it will be bringing the concept to the South West for the first time after agreeing to lease a 1,797 sq ft unit at The Mall.

It is also planning to upsize its own clothing store at Cribbs to a larger 47,000 sq ft space in a move it says will allow it to showcase more fashion and accessories.

Katie Searle, director of asset management at Sovereign Centros from CBRE, said: “Cribbs has become a hub for brands to test new store concepts and product ranges to help them stay ahead of the competition.

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“The Next at Cribbs Mall is among the retailer’s best stores in the country so we are not surprised that they are bringing Bath and Body Works to Cribbs whilst committing to a major upgrade of their space to create new flagship concepts for the South West.

“These premium stores at Cribbs will act as showrooms, with shoppers of all ages from across the West Country, West Midlands, South West and South Wales travelling to explore the latest styles and trends.”

The investment by Next follows a run of brands opening or expanding at The Mall at Cribbs Causeway over the past few years.

M&S completed a full refit of its 103,000 sq ft store at the end of 2024, adding a market-style foodhall and café, while expanding its footwear department and upgrading its beauty section.

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H&M also opened a new regional flagship at Cribbs Causeway that year, incorporating new tech features across the store, while Boots invested in a modernised beauty hall, which has more than 30 premium brands.

Other retailers to open within the shopping centre in recent months include Miniso, AllSaints, Animal, Levi’s, and Rodd & Gunn.

According to CBRE, Cribbs’ retailers have experienced a 26 per cent rise in domestic visitors over the past year as well as a 13 per cent growth in Gen Z shoppers.

Sovereign Centros from CBRE provides full asset management services across Cribbs on behalf of M&G Real Estate, while Time Retail Partners and Cushman & Wakefield are retained letting agents for the centre, with Green & Partners retained in the leasing advisory role.

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Powerball jackpot hits $905M | Fox Business

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Powerball jackpot hits $905M | Fox Business

The Powerball jackpot surged to an estimated $905 million ahead of Monday night’s drawing, making it the eighth-largest prize in the game’s history.

The pot grew after no ticket matched all six numbers from Saturday night’s drawing.

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The white balls were 5, 9, 35, 54 and 63. The red Powerball was 7 and the Power Play multiplier was three.

It now has an estimated cash value of $391.9 million, according to the lottery.

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The Powerball jackpot is now the eighth-largest in the game’s history. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The odds of winning a prize are 1 in 24.9, while the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million.

Though there was no jackpot winner in the latest drawing, four tickets matched all five white balls and won $1 million each, the lottery said. Winning Match 5 tickets were sold in Arizona, Florida, Michigan and New York. A ticket matching all five white balls was sold in Texas and included the Power Play option, increasing the prize to $2 million. 

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Monday’s drawing will mark the 43rd in the current jackpot run.

printed tickets for the Powerball Lottery

The odds of winning a prize are 1 in 24.9, while the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million. (CatLane/iStock)

The Powerball jackpot was last won on May 2, when two tickets in Florida and Texas split a $20 million prize.

The winner can choose between a lump sum payment or an annuitized prize – one immediate payment followed by 29 annual payments. Both options are before taxes.

A ticket for the Powerball lottery sits on a counter in a store

The Powerball jackpot now has an estimated cash value of $391.9 million, according to the lottery. (Reuters/Andrew Kelly)

Powerball tickets are sold in 45 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the United Kingdom. Drawings occur three nights a week, on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

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The biggest Powerball jackpots:

  1. $2.04 billion – Nov. 7, 2022 – California
  2. $1.817 billion – Dec. 24, 2025 – Arkansas
  3. $1.787 billion – Sept. 6, 2025 – Missouri, Texas
  4. $1.765 billion – Oct. 11, 2023 – California
  5. $1.586 billion – Jan. 13, 2016 – California, Florida, Tennessee
  6. $1.326 billion – April 6, 2024 – Oregon
  7. $1.08 billion – July 19, 2023 – California
  8. $905 million – Aug. 10, 2026 (current prize, estimated jackpot)
  9. $842.4 million – Jan. 1, 2024 – Michigan
  10. $768.4 million – March 27, 2019 – Wisconsin
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