“So, yes, from the morning lows we are seeing some bounce back and this has been the pattern since last week where a huge gap down is followed by intraday bounce. But overall, the trend remains negative and gradually the market is moving lower. And we expect this volatility to continue and hence one should avoid complacent bets,” said Rajesh Bhosale, market strategist from Angel One.

He added, “On the higher side, if we see 24,200 to 24,300, that was a major support zone and that has been breached, so we expect further lower levels in the near term. So, avoid aggressive longs as of now. On the downside, if we see, 23,500 is the next key support, that is a key golden retracement. Last year there was a rally from the levels of around 21,700, and the golden retracement for that comes around 23,500. So, the next key level would be around 23,500. But as of now, until we see a clear reversal, one should avoid aggressive positions.”

Bhosale also shared stock-specific insights amid the volatile market. “If we see, there is volatility and we are seeing opportunities on both sides. Auto space is under tremendous pressure, and from that space, TVS Motor has seen a fresh breakdown. On the daily chart, there is an ascending triangle breakdown, and after a long time, it is slipping below 89 EMA. So, we expect the weakness can extend in the near term. One can have a bearish bet on TVS Motor considering 3,730 as a key resistance point and keeping that as a stop loss. We expect TVS Motor can slip towards the levels of 3,430.”

He highlighted potential opportunities in other sectors as well. “Some relative strength is visible in some counters. Banking space is under pressure, but IT space is somewhat showing relative strength. From that space, we are liking LTIMindtree. Last year, the stock was trading around 4,200 in March and rallied towards 6,000. LTIMindtree is again around the same levels this March. We expect a bounce back since indicators are oversold. With a stop loss of around 4,180, we are expecting a move towards 4,700 levels.”

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Regarding PSU banks, Bhosale suggested a cautious approach. “We are seeing fresh breakdown in the PSU banks. On the daily chart of the PSU bank index, we can see a bearish island reversal formation. We expect the PSU bank index can extend its move towards 8,300. As of now, we will have a wait and watch approach. When it comes to 8,300, we will try to pick some good counters such as Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, and Union Bank. But for now, we suggest avoiding positions as further weakness is expected in the near term.”
Analysts advise investors to maintain caution and avoid aggressive positions while keeping an eye on key support levels as the market navigates through heightened volatility.

“When these kinds of crises come and go, the good news is that this time around, the Indian economy and micro fundamentals are much stronger than in past crises. That at least gives you added comfort,” Khemani said. “But definitely, like I always say, good price and good news do not come together. So, whenever there is good price, it is accompanied by some bad news, which is what it is today. Also, one needs to see that the long-term terminal value of equities does not get changed because of short-term movements, and that largely determines equity valuation. Hence, any such aberrations are generally, unless they are expected to put a permanent dent on any business, an opportunity to buy.”

When asked where investors might find attractive buying opportunities, Khemani highlighted sectors closely aligned with the domestic economy. “Look at banks, which are completely aligned to the domestic economy. We have seen good corrections because of this event. I know that temporarily, there could be some impact on one quarter’s profitability, but they do not change anything on the business. Consumer sectors and consumer sentiment can also change in the short term, with some dents in margins here and there, but structurally it does not change anything. Even the pharmaceutical sector, which is quite defensive in these times, ends up seeing flows coming through. So, usual domestic economy-aligned sectors where you are seeing large corrections due to this situation are opportunities to buy.”

On the divergence seen within the banking segment, with some large private banks under pressure while public sector banks (PSBs) offer valuation comfort, Khemani said: “We actually like both PSU and we recently owned some PSU banks as well. Historically, we have always been bullish on private banks, but in the last couple of years we have been more positive on PSU banks as well because there is clear value, and they have been delivering good growth in the last three-four quarters. So, we continue to remain balanced in both segments.”

As markets continue to digest global and domestic uncertainties, Khemani’s advice underscores a long-term perspective: short-term volatility can present buying opportunities in fundamentally strong sectors.

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Biggest one-day gain in six years as the Middle East conflict disrupts key oil infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz traffic

The price of oil has surpassed the $100 threshold for the first time since the energy crisis in 2022, with analysts warning the economic ramifications could exceed those of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, jumped more than 25 per cent to peaks of $118 per barrel as the week’s trading commenced in Asia – representing the commodity’s largest single-day rise in six years.

The latest spike occurred as the Middle East conflict continued to strike crucial oil infrastructure, prompting nations to reduce production whilst movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes – has virtually ceased.

Kuwait’s state oil company announced over the weekend it was reducing output, whilst the United Arab Emirates’ state-run oil firm stated it was “managing” some output, indicating potential production reductions.

In 2022, Brent crude momentarily exceeded $120 a barrel and reached peaks of $145 a barrel in 2008, with both movements resulting in significant repercussions for the global economy, as reported by City AM.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, observed Iraq was now producing a quarter of the oil it generated before the US and Israel attacks on Iran, at 1.3m barrels per day down from 4.3m.

“This is roughly three per cent of global oil supply lost in a single event. Shockingly, this is worse than the oil supply situation after Russia attacked Ukraine.”

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs has predicted the price of oil could surpass the $150 threshold by year-end if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved.

Analysts at the investment bank have cautioned the ramifications of the US and Israel’s confrontation with Iran could prove 17 times more severe than the April 2022 peak, when global economies grappled with an energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs had anticipated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would decline to 15 per cent of normal levels. However, the Iranian blockade has meant only ten per cent of oil shipments that typically transit the waterway have managed to pass through.

On Friday evening, analysts at the Wall Street powerhouse issued a note stating: “Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then”.

In a Truth Social post responding to the latest price spike, Donald Trump has described it as “a very small price to pay for USA, and world”.

The US president declared the oil price rises “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over”. Elsewhere, the Financial Times has reported that G7 finance ministers are poised to discuss a potential co-ordinated release of petroleum from reserves, overseen by the International Energy Agency in an urgent meeting today, aiming to address soaring oil prices amidst conflict in the Middle East.

The ministers and Faith Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, are anticipated to conduct a call at 8:30am New York time to explore strategies to alleviate the impact of the Iran war.