Thailand is confronting a renewed energy-security challenge as the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz pushes global LNG prices to about US$28 per million British thermal units, close to levels seen during the Russia-Ukraine energy shock. Bangkok is responding by accelerating domestic gas exploration, reviewing LNG procurement strategy and seeking to diversify away from spot-market exposure.

Key points

• Global LNG prices have reached about US$28/MMBtu, close to Russia-Ukraine crisis levels.
• LNG accounts for around 30% of Thailand’s electricity-generation gas supply, with domestic Gulf production declining.
• Thailand is diversifying through long-term contracts, new suppliers and accelerated Andaman Sea exploration.

The pressure is particularly significant for Thailand because imported LNG already supplies roughly 30% of gas used for electricity generation, while domestic production from mature Gulf of Thailand fields is declining. PTTEP has warned that every US$3/MMBtu increase in LNG prices could raise Thai electricity prices by around 5%, leaving manufacturers, households and power generators exposed to prolonged international price volatility.

The Energy Ministry is therefore looking to secure more long-term LNG contracts and diversify suppliers. PTT is examining sources in Oman, North America and West Africa, while its trading arm has signed a long-term supply agreement with Norway’s Equinor. Thailand is also accelerating plans for new domestic petroleum exploration, including prospective resources in the Andaman Sea.

The immediate objective is to reduce Thailand’s dependence on volatile spot cargoes and create greater flexibility in the national gas portfolio. But new domestic resources will take years to develop, meaning imported LNG will remain critical in the near term. The crisis therefore increases the importance of power-sector reforms, renewable generation, energy storage and demand management alongside conventional gas investment.

Why it matters: Energy costs are becoming a direct constraint on Thailand’s industrial competitiveness. A prolonged LNG shock could raise electricity prices and production costs just as Bangkok is trying to attract data centres, electronics and other energy-intensive investment.

Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.07%, to $99.18 a barrel as of 0119 GMT while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 35 cents, or 0.39%, to $90.17 per barrel.

While US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that he could “annihilate” Iran, he also said his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had held productive talks with mediators of Iran to end the war.

“I think there’s a lot of momentum for them to make a deal,” Trump said.

Optimism around improved supply and a push to end the nearly seven-month conflict drove benchmark Brent down to close below $100 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since September 8.

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“The market is currently feeling more constructive about the global oil supply picture than it was a few weeks ago,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.
“The meeting of US and Iranian delegations in New York has given traders a glimmer of hope … Despite the continued tough rhetoric, including threats of ‘annihilation,’ the market is choosing to price in the possibility of talks.”On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, three sources briefed on the matter said, with signs of an increase in Middle Eastern oil flows.

Drone attacks, which Saudi Arabia has blamed on Iraqi militia, forced the kingdom to shut the pipeline on September 11, halting crude loadings at the kingdom’s Yanbu port.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted oil flows from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours through the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has been using the pipeline to reroute around 4 million barrels per day – around 4% of global supply – to Yanbu.

Iraq, too, is increasing oil exports, its oil minister, Basim Mohammed, said on Tuesday. The country is exporting more than 3 million bpd, he said, and expects to boost exports via Turkey to more than 600,000 bpd.

Provisional data from shiptracking firms Vortexa and Kpler pegged Iraqi crude exports in August at 2.3 million and 2.17 million bpd, respectively, up from July’s level but below February’s pre-war level of 3.7 million and 3.362 million bpd.

Adding to downward pressure on oil prices, industry data showed US crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week to September 18, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decline.

Official weekly inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration are due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

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MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity index climbed 0.3%, a sixth straight day of gains, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. Bellwether chip stocks such as Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. climbed.

Earlier, Shopify Inc. jumped 7.1% after striking a partnership with Meta Platforms Inc. for its new Muse AI agent. Concerns about how AI would erode margins and fees at financial brokerages spurred a selloff in US financial stocks and dragged other key equity indexes.

Read more: Stocks in news: Adani Group, OMCs, Persistent Systems and IRB Infra

Elsewhere, Brent fell as much as 1% before paring its losses to trade around $99.10 a barrel as President Donald Trump said US officials had a “very good” meeting with Iranian envoys as Washington renewed efforts to end the conflict. Gold and a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar held their gains from the previous session. There will be no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Japan holiday.

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Technology stocks are reasserting their leadership in global markets, with chipmakers again emerging as a key source of gains. With the economic data calendar thin this week, further advances may hinge on whether diplomacy can push oil prices lower and ease pressure on bond yields. Investors are also looking to the summit between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping for signs of progress on trade and other economic disputes.
“Focus will stay on geopolitics, and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.Chipmakers surged at the start of the week amid early signs of success for Meta’s AI agent. Still, shares in several Asian consumer-facing industries, including major banks, insurers and online travel stocks, may come under pressure, after fears that Meta’s Muse may upset businesses relying on so-called consumer inertia.

Consumer inertia is the tendency to keep buying something out of habit even when better alternatives exist.

“For now, semiconductors and memory remain at the center of the equity conversation,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd., wrote in a note.

Crude oil remains another key focus area for markets as Saudi Arabia moved to restart a key pipeline and the US flagged progress in talks with Iran to end a war that’s rocked supplies from the Middle East.

Investors are also parsing commentary from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the rate path after last week’s quarter-point hike.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned inflationary shocks could take time to fade, while Boston’s Susan Collins backed the increase and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said further hikes may be needed.

“Central banks face a potentially difficult trade-off: The fight against inflation has in many countries not yet been won, and policy rates that are too low risk unanchoring inflation expectations and pushing long-term yields higher,” Daniel Bergvall, head of economic forecasting at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB, wrote in a report.

Jaguar Land Rover expanded an existing recall to include an additional 23,677 vehicles over an electronic system error that may lead to the loss of drive power and exterior lighting, according to federal regulators.

About 23,677 vehicles are affected by the recall, including 2021-2024 Land Rover Range Rover Velar, 2019-2024 Land Rover Range Rover Sport, 2020-2024 Land Rover Range Rover Evoque, 2020-2024 Land Rover Range Rover, 2021-2024 Jaguar F-Pace, 2021-2024 Jaguar E-Pace, 2020-2024 Land Rover Discovery Sport, 2021-2024 Land Rover Discovery and 2020-2024 Land Rover Defender models.

The recall was initiated because a DC-DC converter may malfunction due to an electrical overload that can happen during high power demand, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said in its recall notice.

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Jaguar Land Rover issued a recall for more than 23,000 vehicles over an electronic system error that may lead to the loss of drive power and exterior lighting. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

A software error can also cause the converter to stop functioning at vehicle start-up, which may result in the loss of drive power and exterior lighting.

“Failure of the DC-DC converter will result in the loss of 12-Volt system charging and can lead to complete loss of drive power and exterior lighting,” the notice reads.

Jaguar Land Rover estimates that all the listed vehicles are affected by the defect.

FORD RECALLS MORE THAN 223,000 VEHICLES OVER FUEL TANK ISSUE

About 23,677 vehicles are affected by the recall. (Anna Barclay/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The affected vehicles use a high-voltage battery system alongside a conventional 12-volt battery that powers systems such as lighting and electronic accessories. The DC-DC converter charges the 12-volt battery from the high-voltage system.

The lithium-ion battery is charged at a charging station, and the lead battery is charged with power from the lithium-ion battery, according to Panasonic. As the lithium-ion battery is charging, a DC-DC converter converts high-voltage DC power into low-voltage DC power.

Jaguar Land Rover has received 393 claims and field reports about the issue in the U.S., according to the NHTSA.

Jaguar Land Rover estimates that all the listed vehicles are affected by the defect. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

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No accidents, injuries or fires have been reported.

Dealerships will update the vehicle software at no cost. The update will introduce a new “limp-home” mode, providing a warning to the driver in case the DC-DC converter goes offline.

Interim letters notifying owners of the safety risk are expected to be mailed on Nov. 13. Additional letters will be sent out once the final remedy is available.