Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the U.S.-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures jumped $3.09, or 2.74%, to $115.66 a barrel by 2353 GMT after settling 4.2% higher on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate was ‌at $102.56 a barrel, ⁠up $2.92, ⁠or 2.93%, following a 5.5% gain in the previous session.

Brent has soared 59% this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, with ⁠Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis ‌on Saturday launching their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian ⁠Peninsula and the Red Sea.

“The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb – one of the world’s most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows,” JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.
Saudi crude exports re-directed from the Strait of Hormuz to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 ‌million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot toward Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to ⁠the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman’s Salalah terminal despite efforts to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a U.S. ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region as well as potential U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

• The fund posted returns of 4.51% (Institutional shares) and 4.45% (Investor A shares, without sales charge) for the fourth quarter of 2025.

• The largest contributor to relative performance was security selection in the financials, consumer

Mumbai: Banks may face significant mark-to-market (MTM) losses in the March quarter as rising sovereign bond yields erode the value of their government securities portfolios. India’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to a 12-month high of 6.96% on March 27, up from 6.68% at the start of the month, rising nearly 28 basis points in March alone. The increase has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, and higher global crude oil prices that have revived inflation concerns.

Bankers and analysts said that despite the Reserve Bank of India’s aggressive intervention through open market operation (OMO) purchases-₹1.77 lakh crore in March alone and ₹4.57 lakh crore over the entire fourth quarter-banks are unlikely to escape the quarter unscathed. MTM losses on government securities portfolios are expected to weigh on earnings.

“For me, 6.95% was the worst-case scenario, which was breached on Friday, and I don’t think many banks will have a positive book,” said Alok Singh, treasury head at CSB Bank. “Most banks would have bought bonds between the 6.30% and 6.70% levels this fiscal year, and after Friday’s close these portfolios are off the curve by about 30 basis points, which is negative from a book-running perspective.”

The RBI stepped up intervention in early March, frequently purchasing bonds on-screen during the final hour of trading-a move widely seen as an attempt to cap the rise in yields. On several occasions, yields eased by 3-6 basis points in the last half hour of trade, even as broader market sentiment weakened amid geopolitical risks.
The strain on banks’ treasury books is not new. Banks had witnessed moderation in treasury income in the December quarter after peaking in the June quarter due to swings in the yields. Even when yields traded in the 6.47%-6.57% range between October and December 2025, banks faced MTM pressure.

In the December quarter the the net trading and MTM income for HDFC Bank fell to ₹9 billion versus ₹24 billion in the September quarter and ₹101 billion in the June quarter.
The new year brought little relief, with yields crossing 6.60% in January before accelerating further in March. “The surge in government bond yields is likely to hit banks’ treasury earnings in the March quarter despite RBI OMO support,” said Prakash Agarwal, partner at Gefion Capital, adding that inflation worries stemming from higher oil prices, West Asia tensions and rising global yields continue to push yields higher. However, some bankers are hopeful of limited near-term relief. “I expect MTM losses due to hardening yields, but there could be some respite on Monday,” said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury at Jana Small Finance Bank.

Nifty could continue to trend lower and experience sharp swings this week as geopolitical tensions in West Asia persist, with no clarity on a definitive resolution yet. Nifty 50 once again closed below 23,000 on Friday, and trading below this level could drag the index to 22,500–22,400 zone, according to analysts.

DHARMESH SHAH

HEAD OF TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
For a meaningful pullback to materialise, Nifty must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high–higher low’ pattern on weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week. Failure to do so means the possibility of a prolonged correction cannot be ruled out, wherein critical long-term support is placed in 21,900–21,700 zone.

Our support is based on the following observations: a) Past 25 years’ data suggest that there have been eight occasions where bull market corrections were arrested, with an average decline of 17%. b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions, Nifty has respected the long-term 200-week EMA (barring 2008 and 2020), currently placed at 21,930. c) The April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743. d) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50- and 200-SMAs, and the net daily advance-decline suggests that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, it signals capitulation extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of 23% in the subsequent 6–12 months.

Trading Strategies: Option Strategy for April
Buy 1 lot of 23,800 CE @ 322
Buy 1 lot of 21,800 PE @ 379
Sell 2 lots of 24,100 CE @ 230
Sell 2 lots of 21,500 PE @ 311

Total inflow is 381 points (Rs 24,765 per lot), which is the minimum profit if the index stays between 21,800 and 23,800. The maximum profit is 650 points (Rs 42,000 per lot) if the index closes at 24,100 or 21,500.

The breakeven range is 20,800 on the downside and 24,800 on the upside. As long as Nifty trades within this range, the strategy remains profitable, with gains between Rs 24,765 and Rs 42,000 per lot. The approximate margin required is Rs 2,20,000.

TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Bharti Airtel: Buy at Rs 1,790–1,845, Stop Loss at Rs 1,684, Target: Rs 2,032

Stock has rebounded from its key 20-month EMA, which has held as support in past corrections. After an ~18% fall over four months, it is showing a familiar correction pattern, offering a favourable risk-reward buying opportunity.

DLF: Sell at Rs 523–535, Stop Loss at Rs 546, Target: Rs 502.

Stock has been trading below all its key moving averages, indicating a negative short-term bias. Structurally, the stock has witnessed a multi-month support breakdown, with a lower high–lower low structure on the weekly time frame.

RAHUL SHARMA
HEAD – TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty formed back-to-back doji candles on weekly charts, indicating indecision. Friday’s sell-off came on higher-than-average volumes, with FII shorts in the index at their highest level (2.79 lakh short) since the war began. India VIX has risen to sub-27 levels, suggesting continued gap openings. The daily trend remains down, with significant short additions seen on Friday in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty futures. Immediate support is at 22,471, below which the index could test 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,900 and 23,200.

Trading Strategies: Look to add Nifty ATM puts of next week’s expiry on a bounce back around 23,000 for downside targets of 22,470 and lower. Investors can look to add Nifty ETFs in the range of 21,700–22,000 if the correction extends this week.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Reliance Industries: Sell at CMP Rs 1,348, Stop Loss at Rs 1,380, Target: Rs 1,310/1,280

A bearish breakdown was seen on daily charts on Friday, along with a rise in volumes.

Bharti Airtel: Buy at CMP Rs 1,843, Stop Loss at Rs 1,795, Target: Rs 1,900/1,950

A bullish divergence was seen on daily charts relative to Nifty in the last two weeks, along with a rise in volumes on Friday.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The index remains in a lower high–lower low formation, with rebounds being sold into and the short-term trend firmly bearish. Nifty faced rejection near its 10-DEMA and has breached the 22,950–23,000 support zone, now acting as resistance. Weak momentum (RSI below 40) and elevated India VIX near 26.8 point to continued volatility and downside risk.

As long as Nifty stays below 23,000, the bias remains negative with targets of 22,500 and 22,200. A sustained move above 23,000– 23,100 could trigger short covering towards 23,400–23,500.

Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 22,900–23,000 with a stoploss above 23,100, aiming for 22,600–22,500 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 22,500 CE and buy 25,800 CE of the 07 April 2026 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Ather Energy: Buy at CMP Rs 796, Stop Loss at Rs 748, Target: Rs 880

Ather Energy is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above its previous all-time high zone of Rs 780–790 and hitting fresh highs, signalling trend continuation. The stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating sustained buying interest.

Emcure Pharma: Buy at CMP Rs 1,652, Stop Loss at Rs 1,540, Target: Rs 1,840

Stock shows a strong bullish continuation after breaking above the Rs 1,580 resistance, a key supply zone. It continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating a strengthening trend and accumulation. The breakout is backed by improving participation, signalling demand-driven price action and reinforcing the uptrend.

Across mainland Southeast Asia, the region’s economic story is increasingly being shaped not by exports, industrial growth, or foreign investment, but by households taking on debt simply to meet everyday needs. 

Key takeaways

• Household debt is rising across Southeast Asia as families increasingly borrow to cover everyday living costs rather than build wealth.
• Cambodia stands at the center of the crisis, where rapid credit growth, weak wages, and heavy microfinance borrowing have deepened household vulnerability.
• Analysts warn that if debt pressures continue unchecked, the crisis could spread beyond families and begin to threaten wider economic and financial stability

Analysts say what was once presented as financial inclusion is now becoming a source of financial vulnerability, as easy credit, weak wage growth, and limited public services leave millions of families under growing strain.

Cambodia has become one of the clearest examples of this shift. The country’s private debt to GDP ratio rose from 24.2% in 2010 to 134.5% in 2023, marking one of the fastest debt expansions in the region. That rise is now colliding with a weaker property sector, border disruptions with Thailand, and fresh US trade restrictions, intensifying pressure on already indebted households.

According to Cambodia’s Credit Bureau, the average outstanding personal loan per borrower stood at around $6,500 in December 2025, despite the garment sector’s minimum wage being only $208 per month. The figures highlight how sharply household borrowing has outpaced income growth in one of the region’s most vulnerable economies.

Borrowing for Daily Survival

The problem extends beyond Cambodia. Thailand’s household debt reached 86.8% of GDP in 2025, placing it among the most indebted economies in Asia. Myanmar is also dealing with chronic household debt, while Malaysia’s household debt stood at 84.3% of GDP by mid 2025.

The composition of debt varies across the region, with Malaysia’s borrowing concentrated in housing and vehicle loans, while Thailand carries a heavier share of personal consumption debt.

Experts say a growing number of households are borrowing not to invest or build wealth, but simply to cover food, healthcare and other basic expenses. In Thailand, 64% of non-performing loan accounts were linked to credit cards and personal loans, while many borrowers were spending more than half of their monthly income on debt repayments.

Rising living costs, combined with external shocks such as tariff threats and regional instability, have made that burden even harder to manage.

Antonios Roumpakis of Hong Kong Metropolitan University said Cambodia and Myanmar have been especially exposed because their growth models are more vulnerable to regional tensions and US tariffs. He also pointed to deeper structural problems, including oversupplied credit, weak financial regulation, and poor lending decisions, as key drivers of the crisis.

Microfinance, Poverty, and Wider Financial Risk

Microfinance has become a central issue in the debate over rising debt. Milford Bateman of Royal Holloway, University of London, said the boom in household debt across much of the Global South, particularly in Cambodia, can be directly linked to the commercialization of microcredit institutions that were once not-for-profit. Human Rights Watch reported that Cambodia’s 3.8 million households held more than 3.1 million microloans worth over $18 billion.

For many families, borrowing is increasingly tied to emergencies rather than opportunity. A health financing study found that 28% of people in Cambodia had borrowed money to pay for healthcare, while a 2025 UN study found that 23% of urban households in Myanmar were borrowing for medical costs. Analysts warn that such debt can trap families in long term poverty, often forcing them to sell assets or seek dangerous forms of work to survive.

The risks are also spreading into the broader economy. In Cambodia, the return of large numbers of migrant workers from Thailand has worsened household vulnerability, while falling remittances have removed an important financial buffer for many families.

In Thailand, heavy debt levels have been blamed for weak consumption, prompting repeated stimulus efforts by the government. Economists warn that if household debt continues to deteriorate, it could evolve from a social crisis into a wider banking problem.

Cambodia’s central bank has already approved the creation of asset management institutions to purchase non-performing loans, a sign of increasing urgency rather than long-term reform confidence. Analysts say the region’s debt crisis will not be solved by credit markets alone.

Stronger banking oversight, tighter regulation of microfinance, and broader access to healthcare, education, and housing will be essential if households are to avoid borrowing beyond their limits.

Other People are Reading

The share allotment for Sai Parenteral’s IPO is likely to be finalised by today. Investors who applied for the mainboard issue can check the allotment status by visiting the BSE or the website of the registrar, Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd. On the allotment date, investors learn about the number of shares allotted to them against the bids made.

Sai Parenteral’s IPO subscription status

The mainboard issue that closed on Friday, was subscribed 1.05 times over a three-day bidding period. It received over 78.80 lakh share bids against 75,22,486 equity shares available for booking.

The demand was mainly driven by non-institutional investors’ (NII) who subscribed the issue 2.36 times. Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) subscribed the IPO 1.71 times their quota, while Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) hardly showed any interest, subscribing just 12% shares of the available quota.

Here’s how you can check the status on BSE:

Step 1: Visit the BSE ‘Status Application Check’ page https://www.bseindia.com/investors/appli_check.aspx

Step 2: Select Issue Type: Equity/Debt
Step 3: Put PAN/Application No. and enter checkbox ‘I’m not a robot’.Step 4: Submit ‘Search’

Its stock is expected to get listed on April 2.

About Sai Parenteral’s IPO

The company has set the price band at Rs 372– 392 per share and retail investors can make applications for a minimum of 1 lot which comprises 38 equity shares amounting to Rs 14,896.

The IPO’s fresh issue aggregates up to Rs 285 crores while the OFS aggregates up to Rs 123.79 crores which includes anchor investor portion of 31,28,485 equity shares.

The company raised Rs 122.63 crore on Monday through five anchor investors.

It has reserved 50% of the issue for qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), up to 35% for retail investors and 15% for non-institutional investors (NIIs).

Sai Parenteral’s IPO GMP

Shares of Sai Parenteral’s were not commanding any grey market premium (GMP) ahead of the opening of the issue. This implies a flat listing. The GMP is only an indicative price and could change as the issue progresses.

Sai Parenteral’s IPO net proceeds

The gross proceeds from the issue will be to the tune of Rs 285 crore. The company will utilise Rs 110.8 crore towards capacity expansion and upgradation of manufacturing facilities, Rs 18 crore for establishment of a new R&D Centre, Rs 14 crore towards repayment of borrowings, and Rs 33 crore for its working capital requirements.

About Sai Parenteral’s

Sai Parenteral’s (SPL) is a diversified pharmaceutical formulations company engaged in the business of branded generic formulations and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation (CDMO) products & services for the domestic and international markets. The company’s portfolio includes formulation products, covering both high-value and high-volume categories across therapeutic areas like cardiovascular, neuropsychiatry, anti-diabetic, etc., with offerings across dosage forms such as injectables, tablets, capsules, liquid orals and ointments.

Sai Parenteral’s Financials

The company’s revenue from operations in H1FY26 stood at Rs 303 crore while its profit after tax (PAT) stood at Rs 2 crore. For FY25, revenue stood at Rs 495 crore versus Rs 154 crore in FY24 and Rs 97 crore in FY23. The PAT stood at Rs 20 crore in FY25 versus Rs 8 crore in FY24 and Rs 4 crore in FY23.

Sai Parenteral’s IPO lead managers

The Book Running Lead Managers (BRLMs) is Arihant Capital Markets Ltd while the registrar to the issue is Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)