Business
Inflation reflects growth dynamics in India: Christopher Wood
Hello everybody and thank you for asking me. I will be running through some charts which were still first with the situation in the West. Then I will move on to charts on Asia and India. So I get the bad news out of way first. But this seems to be the wrong way around. So I am getting from back to front here. (Watch)
To start with the US situation, this is a big picture chart everybody needs to be aware of in the global economy. This is US total debt as a percentage of GDP. The story is very simple and the total amount of debt in the system in the US has been going down ever since the credit crisis erupted in 2007-2008. This the first time total debt has been falling in America since the Great Depression.
Mr Bernanke of the Federal Reserve has been trying to get the re-leveraging game going so far, they have not succeeded. My operating assumption is to assume that the leveraging will continue that we peaked out in the US super credit cycle in 2007, which has been running since the Second World War and now in a long-term de-leveraging cycle, which means lower trend GDP growth.
May be re-leveraging will kick in coming months in which case I will change my view, but for now I am assuming it’s a de-leveraging cycle until the data proves otherwise. Next chart you see US total net credit market borrowings and you can see the rate of growth of borrowing has been going down in the system despite the big kick up in Federal Government borrowing.
Next chart is a long-term trend in US nominal GDP 10-year compound annual growth. As the Japanese example has shown in the last 20 years, when you get into a deflationary environment, it no longer makes sense to look at real GDP measures because when inflation zero level what gives a more realistic picture of what is going is nominal GDP. And in my view, nominal GDP growth in America will continue to trend down. We have seen a big rally in US government bond prices this year, as telling you the trend nominal GDP growth is lower and that means the trend earnings growth, trend revenue growth in America is also going to be lower.
Then next chart relates to the consumption story in America which in my view is going to remain anaemic. In my view the US consumers, western consumers in general, are going to be increasing savings rate. There is also a demographic kicking in… the baby boom as heading for retirement, but they cannot afford to retire. So topline is US real disposable personal income, the bottom line is real personal income excluding current transfer receipts. Transfer receipts basically mean welfare payments. So you can see without all the stimulus from the government the fundamental income trend is much weaker. What separates the emerging markets from the developed world is an emerging markets like India with healthy income growth and the developed countries, be it the US, Japan, Europe, we do not have healthy income growth.
Next chart highlights a significant rally in US Treasury Bond prices reflected in declining treasury bond yields which has happened this year. At the start of this year the biggest bearish consensus amongst global equity investors was that US Treasury bonds were screaming sells.
Everybody said that the treasury bond market is going to collapse, the Fed printing money inflation is coming back. Clearly that consensus was completely wrong. US Treasury Bond market has been rallying even with the recent pick in the S&P and recent weeks up to 1150 level which I think was a peak of this counter trend rally. Even with the stock market rally the bond market did not sell off. What this bond market is telling you is that nominal GDP growth is slowing in America, it is telling you it is not a normal recovery. The credit multiplier is not working.
Once the inventory cycles happen & the US capex cycle has ran through, there will be nothing left to sustain the economic momentum. So in a deflationary environment, government bond prices are lead indicator of nominal GDP growth. Right now this is a very important point because the US bond market is sending one message and the US stock market is sending another message and basically investors have a decision to make – do they believe the bond market is giving the correct signal or the stock market? My assumption is that it’s the bond market and my experience is that the bond market is no way smarter than the stock market 90% of the time. Meanwhile, this is US headline CPI inflation for the rest of this year we are going to see inflationary pressures falling throughout the world in the West. That’s going to lead to new deflation concerns.
In Asia and countries like China and India, falling inflationary pressures are going to be bullish and everybody is going to realise it does not make sense to worry about inflation in countries like India. The good news is that you have inflation because that reflects the fundamental growth dynamic. But the key point about the US is if the trend over the past 3 months has extrapolated forward, US CPI inflation will turn negative in October. If that happens, it’s not going to be bullish for equities, it’s going to be bullish for government bonds and it’s going to be a signal for Mr. Bernanke, if we have not done that already, to assume quantitative easing.
Next chart, US average duration of unemployment. So basically there are large groups of the structurally unemployed in America. So in this sense, the US is heading for the European systems situation were you have a large group of structurally unemployed living off the welfare state. The problem in America is that the welfare state is much more controversial than in Europe, hence the political divide in America, hence the growing trend under the so-called Tea Party movement.
Meanwhile the classic monetary measures are highlighting the fact that we are not in a re-leveraging cycle, we are still in a deleveraging cycle. This is the US money multiplier representing the velocity of money in circulation. Velocity of money in circulation is declining. So long as that line is declining, it’s deflationary. We don’t have to worry about inflation picking up, and this chart highlights the growing deflationary threat.
Next chart is US broad money supply growth. Again, money supply growth is going down. That’s why the bond market’s rallying, that’s why inflation is not an issue, that’s why Mr. Bernanke is now looking for an excuse to resume quantitative easing.
Next chart is US bank lending. Again, no real sign of any kind of meaningful pick up in bank lending annualise lending loan growth continue to slow another indication of a deleveraging cycle. This is not just about banks restricting credit, it is also about a change in psychology, economic agents be it the companies or consumers have become more risk averse about borrowing.
Next chart is US total securitisation issuance. In the recent credit boom before the bust a large part of the credit cycle was driven by securitization, therefore we are going to get re-leveraging in America. We need to see a healthy pick up in securitisation as well as banking lending, but the only area that has picked up since the crisis is the dark blue line here.
This is agency mortgage bank securities, that’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These entities are guaranteed by the Federal Government and therefore they do not really count. Any private sector securitisation has barely recovered. Meanwhile the huge role played by Fannie and Freddie should not be ignored in terms of supporting the housing market.
Basically about 96% of the America mortgage market now is government guaranteed. So that’s the US situation. The big picture is still deflationary. However, in terms of macroeconomic shocks that could cause another steep fall in global equities this year for the rest of 2010, I still believe there is going to be another sharp decline in equities like we saw in April and May. It’s more likely to be triggered by the Eurozone where you have systemic risk relating to government debt.
So this chart relates to the ECBs net buying of Euroland government bonds. The key point here is this ECB was forced reluctantly to stop buying junk government bonds in Europe like Greek government bonds in May when the Greek crisis blew up. The interesting point is the ECB is only doing this reluctantly and as equity markets have rallied and the credit spreads have come in, the ECB has progressively bought less and less junk government paper.
Basically last week they hardly bought anything – they’re probably going to go down to zero just as this counter trend rally peaks.
How early we go down depends on whether there is another bout of risk aversion or markets are just focusing on waning growth. This is Greek and PIG government bond yield spreads. I was recommending for several years the investor should bet on wise widening PIG spread. PIG spread, for people who don’t know this, is the average bond yield of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain over the German bond yields-I closed out that just about when the Greek crisis peaked. And I think a better trade is going forward is what I called a Spanish flu trade, betting on rising Spanish CDS.
For now the jury doubts on whether these European countries can make the fiscal adjustments being demanded by the Germans, but people should understand that the Germans have a completely diametrically opposite view to the Americans – they simply do not believe that fiscally stimulating is the way to get yourself out of the economic problem. So right now the weaker part of Euroland has embarked on a fiscal adjustments which is intrinsically deflationary, given the downturn they are facing.
The stress test is being led by Ireland. Last year the Irish economy contracted in nominal terms by more than 10 percentage points. So far the Irish are taking the pain probably because the only boom they have had in the last 1000 years was when they join Euroland community. So in that sense willing to take quite a lot of pain, but in the big stress test it is going to be Spain.
Spain is a big important country. They had a massive private sector debt binge, they got the biggest housing bust in the west, even bigger than the US. So it is going to be interesting to see whether the Spanish political system can make this fiscal adjustment, given the fact they already have nearly 20% unemployed. I have an open mind on this. We just have to see what happens and may be the Europeans can make this fiscal adjustment, in which case it’s going to be a lot of pain, but the Euro as a currency is going to merge with huge credibility.
On the other hand, it may well be that this level of fiscal austerity is simply incompatible with the political systems of these Mediterranean countries. Right now, it is impossible to tell the European who is watching the football and now at the beach we can have a much better ideas they can take this pain by about January-February next year.
But in the meantime if the markets will test or are bound to test the European’s willingness to take this fiscal adjustment in the next few months. Tactically I would be selling the Euro against the dollar here as we had a significant bounce back in the Euro. So those are my thoughts on basically the West. It’s a deflationary environment. But in the US we are going to continue to stimulate in the Europeans because the Europe’s case is going to follow the German President.
Turning to Asia, Asia is a fundamentally healthy story unlike the West. In my view, the peak of the Asia ex-Japan index you saw prior to the credit crisis will be exceeded sooner or later because the Asian economies are growing healthily and have effectively decoupled from the West even though the markets haven’t. This is MSCI Asia ex-Japan relative to MSCI world index. They’ve been in & outperforming trend since the bottom of the Asian crisis in 1998 and that outperforming trend is resuming when the Chinese stock tightening and then formally start easing again which will happen in the next few months. That will reaccelerate Asian outperformance.
Valuation wise, Asia is trading in line with the US on the 12-month forward PE basis. In my view, sooner or later Asia is going to trade at a sustainable premium over the West because the fundamental growth story is so superior. In terms of my relative return asset allocation, I’m going to take a detour here. I am structurally overweight on India and Indonesia as these are the two best long-term stories in Asia. But tactically I have reduced India a bit and raised China because we are going to get a policy inflection points in China in the next few months which will be bullish for Chinese stocks.
But my big underweight in Asia Pac portfolio is Australia which is why I’m weaving more money into China because it has become cheap. What I am underweight on is those stock, sectors, countries which are perceived as beneficiaries of Chinese growth like the commodities sector, because in my view, Chinese growth is going to be slowing for the rest of this year and that’s a negative headwind for the commodities complex.
From an Indian standpoint that was obviously positive. I think oil is going this week to be as high as it’s going to get on its counter trend move. Clearly if you are more bullish on oil, you will be more bearish on India and this is my long only portfolio on Asia or ex-Japan.
I started this portfolio beginning of fourth quarter 2002, sent about 25 to 30 stocks in it, mostly large cap. I cannot have any cash and it’s long only and is basically playing the domestic story in Asia as always. Mostly has the biggest weight being in India because India since always has been my favourite equity story in Asia. It’s still got a big weighting in India. We can argue about the details of what stocks to own etc, but fundamentally this has India. Secondly, China if I did not have a big capital orientation, then I would have less in China, more in smaller Asian markets like Indonesia and Philippines.
That’s the performance of my long-only portfolio compared with the benchmarks. Since I cannot really have cash, as I said, so I cannot really hedge it, but for those who want to hedge I have been recommending since the middle of over 2007 that investors hedge this long Asian exposure by shorting western financial stocks. I have now narrowed that down in recent months into not shorting western financial stocks, but shorting European financial stocks because European financial stocks are much more geared to the systemic risk from junk European government debt and they are also in a much more leverage than American financial stocks.
This is my global portfolio I have also been running since 2002. This has run on a theoretical US dollar denominated pension fund on a 5-year view and this portfolio I have simplified in recent months have got 15% weighting in US 30 year treasury bonds.
That might seem crazy to people given the fact that the US government debt is getting bigger & bigger, but one of my views is that the most likely end game is a sovereign debt crisis in the US and the collapse of the US dollar paper standard. I don’t think that end game happens this year and in my view before this oust in the game is played out the deflationary pressures in the US will take bond yields much lower. So I think it’s quite possible the 10-year Treasury goes 2%, 30 year treasury goes to 3%. For people who think that’s insane, I should point out that the 10-year GDP went below 1% this week and in 2003 got to 0.45 basis points.
So the message is that in deflationary environment bond thing gets very low indeed because the risk aversion causes people like banks, insurance companies, individuals to buy bonds to lock in income because in deflationary environment there is not much income around. So that’s the deflationary hedge, but 45% of my portfolio is geared to the best story in the world, which is Asia.
So I got 15% in Asia or ex-Japan physical property, 30% in my long-only Asia or ex-Japan portfolio. Then I got a longstanding position in gold and gold mining stocks which I have since inception of this portfolio and this position in gold is basically hedging for US dollar denominated pension funds. The big picture risk is that one day simply the world revolt against the ongoing US stimulus and there is a sovereign debt crisis in the US dollar, US government debt, which means the end of the US paper standard and the end of the post 1945 Western paper currency system. And in that environment gold can go parabolic. My longstanding target for gold that can peak in this bull market is $35000 per ounce.
So this is a gold bullion chart in US dollar terms. The key point about this chart is that it’s quite obvious gold is in a bull market and remains in a bull market and this bull market, when it ends, will end in a parabolic spike which we have not seen yet. The next obvious trigger for the next big move in gold will be the next time Mr. Bernanke adopts quantitative easing and the next time he does it he who is going to have to expand the balance sheet more than the last time (because otherwise people are going to worry if it’s going to work), but cannot do it right now because the news flow is not bad enough.
Gold stocks relative to gold bullion price. In my view gold stocks made that relative low to gold bullion price in 2008 when commodities collapsed. So for equity managers who cannot buy pure bullion I would say look at gold mining stocks because if gold goes $35000 per ounce, it is going to be massive operating leverage for those mine. Gold stocks that actually produce gold haven’t hedge the gold and on jurisdictions where governments don’t cease the gold often.
I am turning to some Asian Pacific charts. I will just run through few charts on China that’s a big story for everywhere as I say Chinese market has underperformed this year. The key point to understand about Chinese stocks is that they are policy-driven. Indian stocks are earnings-driven while Chinese stocks are policy-driven. The Chinese government is tightening, that is why the market has been going down. When the Chinese government starts easing, the Chinese stocks will go up and then may be outperforming Indian stocks for a period.
Real GDP growth in China. China growth peaked in my view first quarter. It’s going to be slowing for the rest of this year probably an annualised growth 12% first quarter, may be down to 1% by the fourth quarter. That is going to create a lot of market noise. It will be negative for commodities. It’s not a big deal, but it will create a lot of noise. Chinese bank landing has slowed dramatically this year from the surge last year. China is a command economy banking system. So that looks dramatic, but that has seen the loan growth slowing to 18% which is still respectable, it’s not cold turkey.
China has been tightening on the property market. So what the stock market in China wants to see is more and more developers willing to cut property prices because it’s more than evident that developers are stopping raising prices and starting to cut prices. The greater the hope that the Chinese government stops tightening that process should play out in the next few months. As you can see here average daily residential sales of Chinese properties have fallen pretty dramatically since April when the government got more aggressive on tightening. You’d have read a lot about Chinese property bubbles, especially in America.
The Chinese property markets have a lot of excess supply, but it’s not a bubble because you have very conservative mortgage financing. What you do have there is a lot of high end developments sitting 80% empty. So Chinese people like to have lot of flat value and don’t like to have flats once used because they think a used flat is devalued just like a used car.
What about the currency? When the renminbi starts to rise against the US dollar incrementally, maximum incremental appreciation will be of 5%. So the Chinese are going to let their currency go up slightly, but you are not going to get any aggressive moves.
I got a chart on Hong Kong just to highlight that we have got a big long-term asset inflation story in Asia. The quintessential asset inflation story in Asia is Hong Kong because of the supply constraints. In my view, Hong Kong property would sooner or later exceed 1997 peaks. You can get a mortagage in Hong Kong today for less than 1%. There you see, apart from Mumbai, this is a one property market in Asia with the massive supply constraint. This is a new supplier residential properties. So Hong Kong I think is a classic asset inflation story to monitor.
Turning to India, I would not go too much linked to India because everybody over here would know more about it than me, but we probably had a big inflation scare at the start of this year. In my view, it’s fundamentally silly to worry too much about inflationary pressures in Asia.
We should be celebrating the fact that there is inflation because if there wasn’t inflationary pressures in Asia, it would mean the world is facing a global depression because there is no growth dynamics in the developed world. So I am glad there is inflationary pressure. Having said that inflation is going to be coming off in India for the rest of this year which means that concern should recede. The central bank will continue to tighten incrementally. I think that’s sensible given the external environment, but I think incremental tightening that the RBI is doing is enough to upset stocks here unduly.
Bank credit growth. This I think is a very important chart. The Indian banking sector is a capitalist banking system unlike the Chinese system. So when the economies slow, the banks slow their lending whereas in China they were ordered to lend more. Now the credit cycle is picking up again, that’s a very healthy development. We are looking at about 20% loan growth in India this year. But I think the most important positive points of all is that the credit cycle is being led by infrastructure loans, not personal loans, as you can see from this chart. This raises the key point which in my view is the critical bearable for the Indian macroeconomic story this year and for the next 5 to 10 years is whether we can get an infrastructure cycle playing out.
The fact that infrastructure loans are leading the credit cycle is anecdotal evidence that is happening. If we get infrastructure happening in India, it’s quite possible that India can grow at 9% plus a year for the next 5 years at least, if not 10 years, which means that India in my view is going to be growing more rapidly than China. In my view a more basic trend growth in China is going to be 8% and that’s a growth rate that Chinese Communist party is going to be comfortable with. So the higher growth rate in India than in China, if the infrastructure story happens, is going to raise the profile of the Indian story globally.
Clearly if I am wrong and infrastructure does not happen in India, the whole Indian story becomes much less interesting. It’s not a disaster, but the country only grows just 5%-6%. So this is fixed investment relative to GDP in India. I am expecting this line to pick up again. Car sales, two-wheelers sales are going up. So the consumer story is still perfectly good story in India. It has picked up with the monetary easing, but as I say the key variable for me is infrastructure.
In terms of risks to the Indian markets, probably the biggest risk to the Indian market is simply the huge amount of foreign money. My own guess is that the next time there is a global hiccup, foreigners will sell India less aggressively than in 2008 for the simple reason that India has shown it can decouple from the US economic cycle.
The other point is the fact that foreign investors stay much in India is basically confirmation that India is a good story and those foreign investors who have not yet invested in India are all desperately waiting for a correction. So they can invest, that’s the mindset of them.
One year forward price to book. India is not cheap, but it’s not expensive in the context of Indian stock market history and in my view the Indian stock market will continue to trade at a premium to Asian and mother of emerging markets because the Indian market is like one big growth stock and growth stocks trade at a premium. Clearly, if you want to enter in an equity portfolio for dividends & you don’t buy India, then you should go and look at Singapore.
This chart perceives a useful chart for anybody who is trying to raise Indian funds in the room because it shows a huge outperformance of India – MSCI India relative to MSCI China in recent history. I will just end with the 3 charts on Japan & the reason I am doing this is because of my experience when I lived in Japan in the early 90s and the experience of Japan in the last 20 years is a potential lead indicator of what is going to happen in the West.
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Business
Apple’s Foldable iPhone Surge Saves the S&P 500 From a Chip Rout as Weak Jobs Report Divides Wall Street
NEW YORK — Apple’s stock surged nearly 5% Thursday, adding roughly $182 billion in market capitalization in a single session and single-handedly preventing what would have been a much sharper decline for the broader S&P 500, as a weak June jobs report, an ongoing chip sector pullback and lingering Middle East uncertainty sent most of the rest of the technology market lower heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The S&P 500 managed to finish essentially flat on the day, down just 0.2% by midday before recovering ground, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8%. Eight of the 10 largest market capitalization moves in the S&P 500 on Thursday were negative, including sharp declines for Tesla and Micron Technology. Without Apple’s contribution, analysts noted, the broader index would have recorded a considerably more painful session.
The catalyst for Apple’s surge was a Bloomberg report indicating the company had instructed its parts suppliers to prepare for a large-scale rollout of foldable iPhones this fall, with the expected production target for 2026 now rising to approximately 10 million units, up from earlier forecasts of 7 to 8 million. That order volume increase signals Apple’s confidence that consumer demand for its first foldable smartphone will exceed initial projections. Alongside the foldable, Apple is reportedly preparing roughly 70 million iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max units, setting up what the company expects to be one of the most commercially significant product launches in its recent history.
The foldable iPhone news came at an opportune moment for Apple investors who have been watching the stock navigate a difficult stretch defined by supply chain pressures, memory chip cost increases and publicly disclosed price hikes on its Mac and iPad lineups. The prospect of a new form factor capable of driving a significant upgrade cycle among the company’s existing customer base gave investors a concrete growth narrative to focus on heading into the back half of 2026.
The rest of the day told a very different story for much of the technology sector. Tesla fell 7.4% even as the company reported June vehicle deliveries that came in 18% above analyst estimates, a counterintuitive reaction that market observers attributed almost entirely to profit-taking following a 13% price surge over the prior four trading sessions. Micron Technology, similarly near all-time highs after its extraordinary year-to-date run of more than 300%, declined 5.8%, weighed down in part by a price-fixing lawsuit related to older memory types that circulated through the financial news cycle during the session. Both moves contributed to the Nasdaq’s underperformance, though neither Tesla nor Micron is a component of the Dow, which helps explain the divergence between the blue-chip index’s gain and the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s decline.
The macro backdrop for Thursday’s session was defined by the June nonfarm payrolls report, which landed well below expectations. The Labor Department reported 57,000 new positions added in June, against economist forecasts of 110,000. May’s payroll numbers were revised downward as well. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.2% from 4.3%, a technically positive reading but one that contradicts the weak hiring figure and reflects a falling labor force participation rate rather than broad employment strength. Treasury yields declined in response to the soft data, as bond market investors recalibrated expectations toward a Federal Reserve that would face reduced pressure to raise interest rates given the cooling labor market.
The geopolitical dimension of Thursday’s session involved the Strait of Hormuz, where the vessel backlog waiting to transit the critical waterway fell to 380 ships from 485 earlier in the week. However, only five ships actually passed through the strait in the preceding 24 hours, underscoring how far the shipping situation remains from normal despite diplomatic progress. U.S. and Iranian negotiators wrapped up the latest round of talks in Doha claiming what participants described as positive momentum, though no concrete breakthroughs have been announced. The next scheduled discussion will follow funeral proceedings for Iran’s late Supreme Leader, which are expected to conclude by July 9, a timeline that introduces additional uncertainty about when the substantive diplomatic work can resume.
Oil prices continued falling Thursday despite the limited physical improvement in Hormuz traffic, suggesting markets are pricing in future progress rather than current conditions. Gold and Bitcoin rallied simultaneously for the second consecutive session, a combination that some market participants described as unusual and potentially significant. The SPDR Gold Shares fund rose 2.1% while the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF gained 2.6%. When investors move into both traditional and digital safe-haven assets at the same time, it typically signals a broad underlying uncertainty rather than a specific sectoral rotation.
The broader week produced a pattern analysts have flagged as the dominant theme of 2026’s market: a clear rotation from high-flying technology and semiconductor growth names into steadier, more traditionally valued sectors including financials and industrials. The Dow outperforming the Nasdaq by 1.5 percentage points on Thursday alone illustrated that rotation in concentrated form. The chip sector’s two-day decline followed an 82% first-half gain across semiconductor stocks broadly, making some degree of consolidation not only expected but arguably overdue. The speed of the correction, however, has surprised even observers who anticipated a pullback after the sector’s extraordinary run.
With U.S. markets closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, which falls on Saturday this year, investors have a long weekend to reassess their positions before trading resumes Monday. The Fourth of July closure also pushed the jobs report to Thursday rather than its usual Friday slot, making this week’s already compressed four-day schedule feel even more event-dense than typical pre-holiday periods.
Monday’s reopening will bring investors back to a market still processing a complicated set of signals: Apple’s foldable iPhone optimism colliding with a softening labor market, an ongoing diplomatic standoff in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, a chip sector finding its footing after an extraordinary first half, and a Federal Reserve whose next move remains genuinely uncertain in a way that it has not been for much of the past several months. Whether Apple’s foldable iPhone story can maintain the momentum it generated Thursday, or whether the broader rotation out of technology names continues to dominate, will likely define the market’s first week of July trading when it resumes after the holiday break.
The closure applies to major US stock exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, as well as the bond market. The bond market also ended trading early on Thursday, closing at 2 pm Eastern Time ahead of the long holiday weekend.
The holiday schedule follows the standard US market convention under which Independence Day is observed on the preceding Friday when July 4 falls on a Saturday. As a result, investors will have a three-day weekend before trading resumes with regular hours on Monday.
While stock and bond markets are shut, cryptocurrency markets continue to operate around the clock without interruption. Most commercial banks remain open on Friday, although some branches may operate with modified hours depending on the institution. Postal and delivery services largely maintain normal operations on Friday before adjusting schedules for the holiday on Saturday.
The market closure comes after investors digested the June U.S. employment report, which influenced expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path heading into the holiday weekend.
US financial markets will remain closed on Friday, July 3, in observance of the Independence Day holiday, as July 4 falls on a Saturday this year. Trading in equities and bonds will resume on Monday, July 6.
The closure applies to major US stock exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, as well as the bond market. The bond market also ended trading early on Thursday, closing at 2 p.m. Eastern Time ahead of the long holiday weekend.The holiday schedule follows the standard US market convention under which Independence Day is observed on the preceding Friday when July 4 falls on a Saturday. As a result, investors will have a three-day weekend before trading resumes with regular hours on Monday.
While stock and bond markets are shut, cryptocurrency markets continue to operate around the clock without interruption. Most commercial banks remain open on Friday, although some branches may operate with modified hours depending on the institution. Postal and delivery services largely maintain normal operations on Friday before adjusting schedules for the holiday on Saturday.
The market closure comes after investors digested the June U.S. employment report, which influenced expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path heading into the holiday weekend.
The shortened trading week was marked by heightened attention to economic data and monetary policy expectations. Investors assessed the latest labor market figures alongside signs of moderating inflation, with market participants recalibrating expectations for the timing and extent of future Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions. Trading volumes also tended to thin out ahead of the extended holiday weekend as many institutional investors wrapped up positions before the market closure.
Looking ahead, investors will return to a calendar packed with corporate earnings announcements and fresh economic indicators that could shape sentiment in the second half of the year. Market participants will continue to monitor inflation trends, labor market conditions and comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the central bank’s policy trajectory, while developments in global trade and geopolitics are also expected to remain in focus.
I am an individual investor with over 12 years of research experience in financial markets, with a strong focus on dividend investing and long-term portfolio building. Over time, my main goal has been to create a retirement-style portfolio for myself and my family, centered on stability, reliable income, and steady compounding over the long run. My approach is disciplined and quality-focused. I look for strong companies with simple and understandable business models, consistent cash flows, and a proven ability to pay and grow dividends over time. For me, long-term consistency matters far more than short-term gains or speculative opportunities. I am particularly interested in sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, financials, industrials, and selected technology companies that have reached a stage where they can support stable and growing shareholder returns. I prefer businesses with durable competitive advantages, responsible management teams, and a strong track record of capital allocation. While I do not hold formal financial certifications or institutional affiliations, I have spent more than a decade actively studying and following markets. My experience is built on reading financial reports, analyzing earnings results, and tracking macroeconomic trends over time. This hands-on learning process has helped me develop a consistent and long-term-oriented investment framework. My motivation for writing on Seeking Alpha is to share my perspective on dividend investing and long-term wealth building. I hope to contribute useful, research-based ideas for investors who are also focused on building sustainable income portfolios. At the same time, I value being part of a community where ideas are shared and challenged, as this helps refine my own thinking and improve my investment approach over time.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Business
Lamborghini Unveils the Urus SE Performante Hybrid SUV and Calls It the Fastest Super SUV in the World
MILAN — Lamborghini revealed a new high-performance hybrid version of its best-selling Urus SUV Wednesday, calling the vehicle the fastest super SUV in the world and cementing the Italian automaker’s strategic bet on plug-in hybrid technology over the all-electric future it briefly considered before abandoning earlier this year.
The Urus SE Performante is a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle combining a 4-liter twin-turbocharged V-8 gasoline engine with an electric motor to produce 812 horsepower and approximately 738 foot-pounds of torque. Lamborghini says the combination accelerates from zero to 100 kilometers per hour, roughly equivalent to zero to 60 miles per hour, in 3.3 seconds and achieves a top speed of 312 kilometers per hour, or 194 miles per hour, figures the company says justify its “fastest super SUV” claim.
Lamborghini Chief Executive Stephan Winkelmann framed the new model as a defining moment for the brand.
“It is very important. It’s a game changer,” Winkelmann told CNBC in an interview accompanying the reveal.
The Performante designation signals that this is not simply a refreshed Urus with modest upgrades but a more aggressive, track-informed variant of the vehicle. The exterior reflects that intent, with a larger grille and hood scoops that distinguish it visually from the standard Urus SE lineup, alongside interior improvements that Lamborghini said will be detailed closer to the vehicle’s U.S. market arrival. The company declined to specify pricing for the Performante at this stage, pointing to closer alignment with the American market launch as the appropriate moment for that disclosure. The base 2026 Urus SE starts at approximately $250,000 to $280,000 depending on configuration, providing a rough baseline from which the Performante’s premium can be estimated.
The Urus has been the commercial engine of Lamborghini’s modern success since its introduction nearly a decade ago. Winkelmann said the model represents approximately 50% of the brand’s global sales annually, with total Lamborghini deliveries nearing 11,000 vehicles last year. That commercial weight makes every iteration of the Urus a strategically significant decision for a company that remains small by automotive industry standards but generates revenues entirely disproportionate to its unit volume.
The new Performante arrives against the backdrop of a significant strategic pivot Lamborghini announced in March, when Winkelmann confirmed the company was abandoning its previously stated plans for a fully electric model. The reversal came after Lamborghini assessed customer sentiment and concluded that demand for a pure electric Lamborghini among its target buyers was not materializing at the pace the company had initially anticipated.
“By observing the market … we saw that the acceptance curve of EVs for our type of customers is not increasing, and that therefore we decided to move away from a full-electric car into a plug-in hybrid,” Winkelmann said in a previous interview.
Wednesday’s Urus SE Performante reveal translates that strategic position into a specific product. Lamborghini is not simply walking away from electrification; it is choosing a form of electrification, the plug-in hybrid architecture, that it believes better suits both the performance expectations and the purchasing preferences of the ultra-luxury SUV buyer. The plug-in hybrid format preserves the visceral qualities of a high-displacement combustion engine while layering electric motor torque on top to improve both performance and, in lower-demand scenarios, efficiency. For a customer spending a quarter of a million dollars on an SUV, the argument is that a PHEV delivers the best of both worlds without forcing a compromise that a purely electric powertrain would require in the form of charging infrastructure, range anxiety or the absence of the combustion soundtrack that defines much of the Lamborghini ownership experience.
Winkelmann was careful when asked whether Lamborghini might eventually return to gasoline-only powertrains, declining to rule out the possibility in a characteristically measured response.
“Never say never,” he said when the question was put to him directly.
The Lamborghini announcement arrived shortly after rival Ferrari drew intense public criticism for the reveal of its first fully electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, in late May. The Luce’s reception was described as backlash-heavy, with a segment of Ferrari’s enthusiast community expressing vocal opposition to an electric vehicle from a brand historically defined by its naturally aspirated engine sounds and driving character. Winkelmann declined to comment directly on the Luce or the reaction it received when asked previously, but offered a broader perspective on the philosophy behind Lamborghini’s own approach.
“Innovation is paramount to success,” Winkelmann said. However, he added a qualification that implicitly addressed the controversy surrounding Ferrari’s EV: innovation should not be made for innovation’s sake or forced upon customers against their preferences.
Lamborghini is a subsidiary of Volkswagen AG, the German automaker that also controls Audi, Porsche and Bentley, among other brands. The broader Volkswagen Group has been navigating its own complex relationship with electrification across its various marques, with some brands pushing aggressively toward EV lineups while others, including Porsche, have sought to maintain hybrid options alongside expanding battery-electric ranges. Lamborghini’s EV pullback reflects the reality that the ultra-luxury end of the automotive market has behaved differently from the broader industry in its adoption of electric vehicles, with buyers at the extreme high end of the price spectrum showing greater resistance to the transition than some analysts had predicted when the EV investment wave peaked several years ago.
For now, Lamborghini’s roadmap is clearly focused on extracting maximum performance from the hybrid architecture while preserving the brand’s identity as a builder of viscerally exciting, extreme-performance vehicles. The Urus SE Performante, with its 812-horsepower output, 3.3-second sprint capability and 194-mile-per-hour ceiling, represents the current apex of that strategy, offering performance numbers that would have been considered extraordinary from any vehicle in any category just a few years ago.
Pricing and a formal U.S. launch timeline for the Urus SE Performante are expected to be announced closer to the vehicle’s arrival at American dealerships.
I am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a company’s financials, and ultimately, most often revealed by a DCF model valuation. This methodology doesn’t limit an investor into rigid traditional value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather accounts for all of a stock’s prospects to determine the risk-to-reward.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
The NBA offseason has already produced more blockbuster moves in one week than most leagues see in an entire year, and yet the rumor mill shows no sign of slowing down. From LeBron James’ still-unresolved free agency to whispers about Jayson Tatum’s availability and Nikola Jokic’s uncertain future in Denver, here are the ten storylines dominating NBA circles as the holiday weekend arrives.
1. LeBron James remains unsigned with no timeline in sight. ESPN reported that 12 teams contacted Rich Paul when free agency opened Tuesday, underscoring just how wide the market is for a 41-year-old who has told the league he is willing to accept the veteran’s minimum if it means playing for the right team at the right time. Paul has said he will survey all interested parties and bring options back to James before any decision is made. Golden State remains the most frequently cited destination given the Warriors’ openly stated pursuit, but the Cavaliers, Heat, 76ers, Timberwolves and Nuggets have all been linked in various reports. James has no reported timetable for his decision, prompting Bleacher Report to note simply that everyone should plan the July 4 weekend accordingly.
2. The Celtics received calls on Jayson Tatum too, and shut them all down. ESPN’s Shams Charania confirmed on Get Up that multiple teams called Boston about Tatum’s availability in the weeks surrounding the Jaylen Brown trade. “They shut those down completely,” Charania said. But the mere existence of those calls, combined with the relatively modest return the Celtics accepted for Brown, has fueled widespread speculation among league observers about the franchise’s long-term direction and whether anyone in Boston’s front office is truly untouchable.
3. Jalen Duren’s free agency has drawn serious interest from multiple teams including the Sacramento Kings. The Detroit Pistons hold his restricted free agency rights, which means they can match any offer sheet he signs. According to Chris Haynes, the Kings have been pursuing a sign-and-trade scenario to land the 22-year-old center, whose athleticism and rim protection appeal to contenders looking to upgrade the middle. Detroit, which came off a 60-win season and is focused on continuity, would likely match a reasonable offer, but Sacramento’s interest suggests the market for Duren could push his price into territory that gives the Pistons a decision to make. The Knicks are separately pursuing New Orleans Pelicans center Yves Missi to replace Mitchell Robinson, who agreed to a three-year, $47.4 million deal to join the Celtics.
4. Nikola Jokic’s future with the Denver Nuggets is increasingly uncertain. League sources have suggested that Jokic has not yet committed to signing an extension with Denver, leaving the franchise in a complicated position as it tries to respond to what has already been a difficult offseason. The Nuggets have made relatively modest moves so far, signing veteran guard Tyus Jones to a one-year deal, and Bleacher Report suggested the franchise will need to do something more ambitious if it wants to persuade the three-time MVP to stay long-term. One report indicated Jokic could be drawn to a situation alongside LeBron James if the right scenario materialized elsewhere.
5. The Golden State Warriors are still pursuing Anthony Davis despite Wizards resistance. Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor reported the Warriors’ plan involves acquiring Davis from Washington while using the roster flexibility created by Draymond Green’s player option declination to pursue LeBron James simultaneously. Washington general manager Will Dawkins has publicly stated the organization intends to keep Davis and that the two sides plan to discuss an extension in August. However, the persistent nature of Golden State’s interest, combined with Jimmy Butler’s presence as a potential trade chip and the franchise’s access to draft capital, means the rumor has not fully dissipated despite the Wizards’ stated position.
6. The Lakers made their first major post-LeBron move by acquiring Walker Kessler. Los Angeles completed a sign-and-trade with the Utah Jazz, securing the rim-protecting center on a four-year, $130 million deal with a player option in the fourth year, sending unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, along with first-round swaps in 2028 and 2030, to Utah. Jaxson Hayes simultaneously agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal with the Jazz. The Lakers also added guard Collin Sexton on a two-year, $19 million deal and are finalizing the addition of Quentin Grimes, suggesting the franchise is not simply waiting for James’ decision but actively rebuilding its roster in parallel.
7. Anfernee Simons ended up in Philadelphia despite interest from six other teams. The 76ers secured the former Portland Trail Blazers guard on a two-year, $12.3 million deal including a player option, adding a ball-handling and shooting option to the Jaylen Brown arrival. HoopsHype reported that six teams, including Golden State, Miami, Denver, Dallas and Indiana, all registered interest in Simons before he ultimately chose Philadelphia, illustrating the ripple effects of the Jaylen Brown trade reshaping Philadelphia’s backcourt almost immediately after it was announced.
8. The Celtics pivoted quickly after the Brown trade to sign Mitchell Robinson. Despite the controversy surrounding how Brown’s departure was handled, Boston wasted little time shoring up the frontcourt, agreeing to a three-year, $47.4 million deal with Robinson, the 28-year-old center who averaged 8.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game last season for the Knicks. The signing keeps Boston in Eastern Conference contention around Jayson Tatum and the returning Kristaps Porziņģis.
9. Norman Powell returned to the Los Angeles area by way of the Chicago Bulls. The former Trail Blazer and Raptors wing agreed to a two-year, $45 million deal with Chicago, a surprising landing spot for a player who had been linked to contending teams throughout the early free agency period. His departure from Portland created additional roster space for the Trail Blazers, who are now working through how to integrate newly acquired Ja Morant alongside Damian Lillard.
10. Kyle Lowry will retire as a Toronto Raptor. Sportsnet’s Michael Grange reported Thursday that the 20-year NBA veteran will sign a ceremonial one-day contract to officially retire with the Raptors next week, closing the book on one of the most decorated Canadian basketball careers in league history. Lowry’s retirement announcement came the same week that his former teammate Kawhi Leonard agreed to return to Toronto, a confluence of old Raptors history and new Raptors present that gave Canada’s NBA market something to celebrate on both ends of the basketball timeline.
Everything Shaken, Little Really Stirred
Investor sentiment remains upbeat. In the grey market, Knack Packaging shares are trading at a premium of around 17% over the upper end of the price band, suggesting the potential for a healthy listing gain if current trends continue.
The IPO comprises a fresh issue of Rs 380 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to Rs 59.5 crore by existing shareholders. The company has fixed the price band at Rs 161-170 per share, with a minimum application size of 88 shares.
Knack Packaging is set to list on both the BSE and NSE, with the tentative listing date scheduled for July 8.
Knack Packaging IPO Subscription Status
As of Day 3, the Knack Packaging IPO had been subscribed 83.3 times overall for the 1.89 crore shares on offer.
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs): Subscribed 20 times for their allotted 94.42 lakh shares, reflecting steady retail participation.
Non-Institutional Investors (NIIs): Saw strong demand, getting subscribed 140 times against 40.46 lakh shares, highlighting robust HNI interest.
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs): Subscribed 154 times for 40.46 lakh shares, indicating moderate institutional demand.
Knack Packaging IPO GMP Today
Sentiment in the grey market remains upbeat for the Knack Packaging IPO, with shares trading at a grey market premium (GMP) of around 17% over the upper price band.
Based on current GMP trends, the IPO is expected to list near Rs 198 per share, suggesting a potential listing gain if market sentiment holds steady.
About the company
Knack Packaging is an integrated packaging solutions manufacturer engaged in producing Printed and Laminated Woven Polypropylene (PLWPP) bags, including pinch-bottom bags used across industries such as food grains, flour, sugar, pet food, fertilizers, chemicals, detergents, cement and construction materials.
The company exports to 71 countries and serves over 1,950 customers globally. It has an estimated 10.1% market share in India’s flexible bulk PLWPP bags segment and operates an integrated manufacturing model covering the entire production chain from polypropylene processing to printing and bag conversion.
Its customer base includes companies such as KRBL, Drools, DCM Shriram, Baba Agro Foods, while internationally it serves clients including Cargill and other global brands.
Financial performance
For FY26, the company reported revenue from operations of Rs 823.4 crore, up from Rs 736.5 crore in the previous year.
Net profit increased to Rs 92.8 crore from Rs 73.8 crore in FY25, while EBITDA improved to Rs 152 crore, with EBITDA margins expanding to 18.5%.
Utilisation of proceeds
The company plans to use the fresh issue proceeds primarily to fund the construction of a new manufacturing facility at Borisana in Gujarat, with around Rs 320 crore earmarked for capital expenditure. The remaining proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
What brokerages say
Choice Broking has assigned a “Subscribe for Long Term” rating to the IPO.
The brokerage believes Knack Packaging has built a strong competitive position through its integrated operations, export presence and consistent financial performance. It expects the company’s ongoing capacity expansion, shift towards owned manufacturing facilities and international growth initiatives, including its Mexico joint venture, to support long-term earnings growth.
However, Choice also highlighted risks from global economic slowdowns, customer concentration, foreign currency fluctuations and competitive pressures.
Anand Rathi has also recommended “Subscribe — Long Term” on the issue.
The brokerage believes the company is well positioned in the organised packaging industry with an integrated manufacturing model, strong export presence and growing demand for value-added packaging products. It also noted that increasing manufacturing capacity and improving operational efficiencies could support future growth.
Also read: Kusumgar’s Rs 650-crore IPO to open on July 8; entire issue an OFS
At the upper end of the price band, the IPO is valued at around 22.4 times FY26 earnings, which both brokerages consider broadly fair considering the company’s growth profile and export-led business model.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
The bar for financial software keeps rising, and not by choice. Since the start of 2025, the EU’s DORA rules have required financial firms to demonstrate operational resilience, and PCI DSS 4.0 has made stronger authentication and continuous monitoring mandatory for anyone handling card data.
Work that used to be optional, the security and the compliance, is now table stakes, enforced by regulators.
For a product team, that changes the stakes of choosing a development partner. A firm that treats compliance as an afterthought can leave you failing an audit you cannot reschedule, or rebuilding a system that shipped to the wrong standard. The partners that hold up are the ones that meet these requirements by default, with certifications and case studies to prove it.
This guide profiles the top fintech software development companies for 2026, each with a fact box, a place in the comparison table, and a clear strength, with verified certifications throughout. Use it to match a partner to the financial product you are building and to the standards it must meet.
Build In-House or Hire a Development Partner?
One of the first decisions is whether to build with an in-house team or hire an external partner, and each has real trade-offs.
An in-house team gives you the most control and keeps knowledge inside the company, but hiring senior fintech engineers is slow and expensive, and a full team can sit idle once the heavy build is done.
A development partner brings people who have shipped financial products before, can start in weeks rather than months, and scales up or down as the work changes, though it asks for clear communication and good documentation to avoid knowledge gaps.
Many companies blend the two: a small in-house core that owns product and architecture, with an external partner supplying delivery capacity.
What matters most either way is proven fintech experience, since the domain is unforgiving of on-the-job learning.
How These Firms Made the Cut
We built this list of top fintech software development companies on evidence, not reputation. Every firm had to clear four checks:
| Criterion | What we required |
| Financial-domain delivery | A named product in banking, payments, lending, insurance, or wealth, backed by a real client or case study. |
| Compliance and certifications | Hands-on KYC, AML, PCI DSS, or PSD2 work, plus verified certifications such as ISO 27001 or SOC 2. |
| Verifiable reputation | Public Clutch or GoodFirms reviews, or documented results, are detailed enough to judge. |
| A distinct strength | A clear specialization, so the list helps you match a partner rather than rank near-identical ones. |
Top Fintech Software Development Companies, Reviewed for 2026
Nine firms made the list, each with a fact box and a short profile. The comparison table covers the essentials; the write-ups explain what each one does best.
| Company | Founded | HQ | Team | Clutch | Certifications |
| Relevant Software | 2013 | Warsaw, Poland | 100+ | 4.9 / 32 | ISO 27001, HIPAA, GDPR |
| Itexus | 2013 | Delaware, US | 160+ | 4.9 / 41 | SOC 2, PCI DSS, ISO 27001 |
| Inoxoft | 2014 | Philadelphia, US | 230+ | 5.0 / 74 | ISO 27001 |
| Django Stars | 2008 | Kyiv, Ukraine | 100+ | 4.8 / 61 | ISO 27001, ISO 9001, ISO 14001 |
| Cleveroad | 2011 | Claymont, US + Tallinn | 280+ | 4.9 / 80 (Clutch 1000 #11) | ISO 27001, ISO 9001, SOC 2 |
| S-PRO | 2014 | Zurich, Switzerland | 250+ | 4.9 / 46 | ISO 27001, ISO 27701 |
| 10Clouds | 2009 | Warsaw, Poland | 200+ | 4.9 / 95 | ISO 27001 |
| DashDevs | c. 2010 | London, UK | 100+ | 4.9 / 9 | ISO 27001, AWS |
| Netguru | 2008 | Poznan, Poland | 800+ | 4.8 / 73 | ISO 27001, PCI DSS, GDPR |
1. Relevant Software: built to the standards fintech now requires
| Founded | 2013 |
| Headquarters | Warsaw, Poland, and Valencia, Spain |
| Team | 100+ in-house engineers (92% senior) |
| Clutch | 4.9 / 30+ reviews |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, HIPAA, GDPR |
| Focus | Compliance-first banking, payments, and lending |
Relevant Software is one of the top fintech software development companies and the kind of partner the new compliance baseline rewards. Founded in 2013, it holds ISO 27001, HIPAA, and GDPR certifications and treats security and regulatory controls as architecture rather than paperwork, with 92% of its engineers being senior and 96% retention keeping that knowledge in-house. Its work spans digital and core banking, payments, lending, white-label products, and AI-based fraud and compliance tooling.
The results are documented: one lending client reported net profit up 25% year over year and a peak of roughly 7,000 loans handled smoothly after a platform rebuild, per its Clutch review, part of a record of 246 projects at a 9.8 Net Promoter Score.
2. Itexus: a fintech-only engineering partner
| Founded | 2013 |
| Headquarters | Dover, Delaware, US (engineering in Eastern Europe) |
| Team | 160+ (70%+ senior) |
| Clutch | 4.9 / 41 |
| Certifications | SOC 2, PCI DSS, ISO 27001 |
| Focus | Fintech-only: banking, payments, trading, wealth, crypto |
When a build spans multiple financial domains, a generalist starts improvising. Itexus does not: the Delaware-incorporated firm, with engineering across Eastern Europe, works only in fintech and has the range to match, digital banking, payments, trading, and wealth platforms, crypto wallets, and RegTech, for clients in more than twenty countries. More than 70% of its 160-plus engineers are senior, which keeps its multi-domain architecture coherent. It is SOC 2, PCI DSS, and ISO 27001 compliant.
3. Inoxoft: mobile banking and lending for startups
| Founded | 2014 |
| Headquarters | Philadelphia, US (delivery in Lviv, Tallinn, Tel Aviv) |
| Team | 230+ |
| Clutch | 5.0 / 74 |
| Certifications | ISO 27001 (Microsoft and Google Cloud partner) |
| Focus | Mobile banking, lending, AI financial analytics |
Startups that need a banking or lending app built to pass a compliance review are Inoxoft’s core audience. Headquartered in Philadelphia with delivery centers in Lviv, Tallinn, and Tel Aviv, the firm keeps mobile banking, lending platforms, and AI-driven financial analytics at the center of its fintech work, often as compliance-ready MVPs for US and European clients. Its engineers cover Flutter and React Native on mobile and .NET, Python, and Node.js on the backend, so cross-platform delivery stays under one roof. The team passed 230 people while holding a 5.0 Clutch rating across 70-plus reviews, and it is ISO 27001 certified and a Microsoft and Google Cloud partner.
4. Django Stars: Python backends for data-heavy fintech
| Founded | 2008 |
| Headquarters | Kyiv, Ukraine (US-incorporated) |
| Team | 100+ |
| Clutch | 4.8 / 61 |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, ISO 9001, ISO 14001 |
| Focus | Python backends; lending and mortgage |
Mortgage and lending platforms live or die on their data handling, which is where Django Stars fits. True to its name, the firm works in Python and Django, a stack suited to data-heavy financial backends, and it has put that to work on the MVP for the digital mortgage broker Molo Finance and on the MoneyPark platform, mostly for US, UK, and Swiss clients. Around 100 people, US-incorporated, with engineers in Kyiv; reports a 92.7% Net Promoter Score and carries ISO 9001, ISO 14001, and ISO 27001.
5. Cleveroad: full-cycle digital banking with a US presence
| Founded | 2011 |
| Headquarters | Claymont, US, and Tallinn, Estonia |
| Team | 280+ in-house engineers |
| Clutch | 4.9 / 80 (#11 on the 2025 Clutch 1000) |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, ISO 9001, SOC 2 |
| Focus | Full-cycle digital banking, crypto, AI |
A US business address with Eastern European engineering rates is a combination that founders often ask for, and Cleveroad offers it: registered in Delaware, with its main R&D hub in Tallinn and more than 280 in-house engineers. It ranked eleventh in the world on the 2025 Clutch 1000. Its fintech work is deliberately broad, digital and neobanking platforms, lending, payments, insurance tools, trading software, and blockchain wallets, with AI for fraud detection, and its standout project rebuilt the online banking ecosystem for the European Investment Bank under Swiss FINMA and FMIA rules. It holds ISO 9001 and ISO 27001 certifications and complies with PCI DSS, SOC 2, and GDPR.
6. S-PRO: Swiss banking, fintech, and blockchain
| Founded | 2014 |
| Headquarters | Zurich, Switzerland (Ukrainian roots) |
| Team | 250+ |
| Clutch | 45+ reviews |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, ISO 27701 |
| Focus | Swiss banking, crypto, and blockchain |
There are not many development firms a Swiss bank would shortlist, and S-PRO is one. Headquartered in Zurich with Ukrainian roots, it earns about two-thirds of its revenue in finance and specializes in Swiss banking and blockchain, with a white-label mobile banking constructor for the BaaS provider Treezor, a Swiss FinTech award for a client platform, and a crypto bank based in Zug among the results. Its location brings genuine experience with FINMA-regulated firms, and a team of around 250 backed by ISO 27001 and ISO 27701 for security and privacy.
7. 10Clouds: blockchain, AI, and design
| Founded | 2009 |
| Headquarters | Warsaw, Poland |
| Team | 200+ |
| Clutch | 4.9 / 95 |
| Certifications | ISO 27001 |
| Focus | Blockchain and Web3, AI, product design |
Recognition from both Deloitte and the Financial Times is rare for a studio of around 200, but 10Clouds has it. The Warsaw firm pairs blockchain and Web3 engineering with award-winning product design and a growing AI practice, a mix visible in its financial portfolio: TrustStamp’s identity verification, work on the Aleph Zero blockchain, and DCLEX, a stock-trading platform built on-chain with NFT identity. It is ISO 27001 certified with more than 70 Clutch reviews. For a crypto or tokenized product that also has to feel right, it covers both ends.
8. DashDevs: white-label neobank infrastructure
| Founded | c. 2010 (15+ years in fintech) |
| Headquarters | London, UK (Eastern European delivery) |
| Team | 100+ |
| Clutch | 4.9 / 9 |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, AWS partner |
| Focus | White-label neobank platform, payments |
For teams wary of vendor lock-in, DashDevs has an unusual pitch: it hands over the full source code. Its FintechCore platform is a white-label neobank core, with 60+ modules and 470+ API endpoints spanning KYC, card issuing, ledgers, and AML, that clients own outright. The London firm, with Eastern European delivery and roughly 15 years in financial software, used that foundation to launch the UK challenger bank Dozens in 9 months and counts Chip and RakBank among its clients. It is ISO 27001 certified and an AWS partner.
9. Netguru: design-led fintech and banking-as-a-service
| Founded | 2008 |
| Headquarters | Poznan, Poland |
| Team | 800+ |
| Clutch | 4.8 / 73 |
| Certifications | ISO 27001, PCI DSS, GDPR |
| Focus | Design-led fintech, banking-as-a-service, open banking |
When a Swiss private bank or a fast-growing African fintech needs a product that feels effortless, design stops being decoration, and Netguru built its reputation there. The Poznan firm, with more than 800 people and the largest on this list, leads with UX research and product strategy. Its fintech experience runs through digital banking, regtech, wealthtech, banking-as-a-service, and open banking, with backend and API work for the BaaS platform Solarisbank, a multi-country KYC and AML system for FairMoney, and products for the wealth manager Pictet. It works to GDPR, PCI DSS, and ISO 27001.
How Much Does It Cost to Build a Fintech Product?
Cost in fintech is driven more by complexity and compliance than by the number of features. Industry estimates for 2026 put a focused MVP at roughly $50,000 to $150,000, while a full, production-grade platform runs from about $200,000 to $500,000 and up.
Regulated products start higher because mandatory work like KYC, AML, and PCI DSS adds engineering time from the first sprint, and a fintech build typically takes 40 to 60 percent longer than a comparable app in another industry.
Where the team sits matters too: senior engineers in Central and Eastern Europe often bill around $50 an hour, compared with $150 to $250 in San Francisco or London. And the build is not the end of spending, since most teams budget another 15 to 20 percent of the cost each year for maintenance, security, and compliance.
How Long Does a Fintech Build Take?
Timelines depend on the scope and how much of the product has to be built rather than integrated. A focused MVP that leans on third-party services for payments and identity usually ships in three to five months. A growth-stage platform with more features and tighter controls takes six to nine months, and a regulated, enterprise-grade system can run nine to eighteen months or longer. Two things stretch schedules in ways teams underestimate. Security and compliance work adds testing and architecture time, which is why financial products take noticeably longer than consumer apps of similar size. And if the product needs a sponsor bank or a banking-as-a-service partner, those approvals alone can take three to six months and should run in parallel with development, not after it.
Conclusions
With compliance now mandatory rather than optional, the safest choice among the top fintech software development companies is the one that already builds to the standards your product must meet. So verify before you sign: ask which certifications a firm actually holds and for which entities, and ask to see a product shipped in your specific area. Then match the specialization to your need, whether that is a neobank core, a payments rail, a lending engine, or a polished consumer app. The firms here all clear the evidence bar; the right one is the specialist whose track record lines up with what you are building.
Abivax shares added to recent gains after the French biotechnology company moved to bolster its balance sheet through an upsized stock offering, signaling investor appetite in the wake of positive clinical-trial data.
Paris-listed shares in Abivax were up 5% at 123.40 euros in European morning trading Thursday, which would be a new all-time high if sustained until market close, according to FactSet data. This gave the company a market value of roughly 10 billion euros ($11.26 billion) after a 46% rally this week.
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