Bitcoin and gold shot higher this week, with both getting a boost from some frantic action surrounding the bond market, and the cryptocurrency also benefiting from activity in Washington.

Bitcoin had dropped from a January high of around $95,000 to below $60,000 at the end of June. Investors shied away from speculative assets earlier in the year and crypto supporters were concerned about the lack of movement on proposed regulation of the industry. On Friday, bitcoin rose above $77,000.

Gold hit a high above $5,300 in January but dropped to around $4,000 in June as rising rates made interest-bearing investments more attractive. Gold rose to $4,661 on Friday.The first jolt arrived Wednesday when the Treasury Department announced plans to significantly increase its buybacks of long-term Treasurys, or government debt. On the same day, President Donald Trump, who made about $1.2 billion last year from various crypto holdings, urged Congress to move quickly on crypto legislation.

There was an almost immediate reaction, which included a dollar sell-off and a jump in the value of gold and bitcoin as investors moved toward alternative assets.

How these two investments caught fire can be understood in the context of several developments this week.
The Treasury stepped into the bond market – forcefullyIn a surprise announcement Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department said that it would at least double the size of its planned purchases of longer-term government debt. The maneuver was intended to calm bond markets after a sustained sell-off, meaning investors were asking for higher yields to lend money to the U.S., which investors suddenly viewed as riskier

That’s because while the Treasury intervention worked, at least for a short period, it also raised questions about whether the government is trying to push borrowing costs lower despite inflationary pressures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting to lower long-term borrowing costs, a move that can put upward pressure on inflation at a time when inflation is already elevated. Bessent’s maneuver could handcuff the Federal Reserve, which fights inflation by raising interest rates.

Debt, inflation, and the “debasement trade” heat up

Then there’s the national debt, which surpassed a record $40 trillion on the same day that the Treasury’s actions unfolded. The milestone figure was recorded just five months after the U.S. hit a record $39 trillion debt in March. It reached $38 trillion five months before that, in October.

There is already a lot of anxiety over inflation, particularly because of the conflict in Iran and soaring energy prices. If yields on U.S. bonds are not truly reflecting risk, you can often see that play out in the value of the U.S. currency, which took a significant downward swoop Wednesday.

So where does the money that was invested in the dollar or Treasurys go? This week, it appears to have been funneled into what is known as the “debasement trade,” when investors flood into alternative assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% Wednesday. The debasement trade now includes bitcoin. Bitcoin jumped more than 20% this week.

Crypto had a very good week in Washington

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump, who banked nearly $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses last year, held a crypto currency conference at the White House where he called on Congress to pass the crypto-friendly Clarity Act, saying that it would “keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else.”

Trump then yielded the floor to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig, who vowed to “use every tool available” to advance Trump’s agenda.

Selig’s comments came ahead of a CFTC meeting Thursday examining ways the agency can use its existing authority to ease crypto rules. A day earlier, other regulators proposed rules making it easier for crypto companies and projects to raise money from the public.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed policies friendly to the crypto industry and reversed a Biden administration regulatory crackdown.

Bitcoin’s big squeeze sent prices even higher

Bitcoin can sometimes get a bump when the U.S. dollar is on the ropes as investors try to unload the U.S. currency. But you don’t typically see the kind of related movement that was observed with bitcoin this week.

The price of bitcoin had been stuck between $62,000 and $67,000 for weeks. Investors seized on that weakness, many placing bets that the cryptocurrency would be stuck in that range for some time to come.

However, on the day the Treasury announced its buybacks, Treasury yields fell, as did the dollar, and bitcoin blasted through that upper level of $67,000.

The Treasury’s actions negatively affected the money investors could make on U.S. bonds and the dollar, and boosted the value of bitcoin. That meant that many investors who had shorted bitcoin, or bet that its price would remain subdued, were forced to close their positions as bitcoin surged. Closing those bearish positions required buying back the digital asset, adding even more upward pressure to bitcoin’s price.

By Friday, more than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions had been liquidated during the rally, according to CoinGlass, which tracks cryptocurrency derivatives markets.

And because bitcoin was already rising, those forced purchases added fuel to the rally, potentially triggering still more liquidations as prices climbed.

TOKYO — A magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck eastern Japan early Sunday, shaking the greater Tokyo area and injuring at least five people, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, though officials said more injuries were still being assessed as the day continued.

The quake struck at approximately 2 a.m. local time, with its epicenter located in southern Ibaraki Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, at a depth of roughly 70 kilometers, or about 42 miles, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency reported a preliminary magnitude of 5.9, while the U.S. Geological Survey recorded the quake at magnitude 5.8. Officials confirmed there was no danger of a tsunami.

Shaking reached an intensity of lower 5 on Japan’s seven-level shindo seismic intensity scale in Tokyo’s Adachi Ward, as well as in Ibaraki, Saitama and Chiba prefectures, according to The Japan Times. Level 4 shaking was recorded in other parts of Tokyo and in Tochigi, Gunma and Kanagawa prefectures. According to the Meteorological Agency, shaking at the lower-5 intensity level can cause objects to fall from shelves and prompt people to grab onto something for support. In some areas, the tremors lasted up to a minute, with residents receiving earthquake early warning alerts on their mobile phones shortly before the shaking began.

The quake also produced what seismologists refer to as long-period ground motion, a slower, more prolonged form of shaking that can cause high-rise buildings to sway significantly and, at higher intensities, make it difficult for people to remain standing. According to NHK, Level 2 long-period ground motion was observed in the city of Kawaguchi in Saitama Prefecture, the city of Urayasu in Chiba Prefecture, and in Tokyo’s Koto and Edogawa wards.

At least five people were injured across Ibaraki, Chiba and Saitama prefectures, according to officials cited by the Korea Times, with authorities continuing to investigate reports of additional injuries as Sunday progressed. The quake caused an underground water pipe to rupture in Tokyo’s eastern Koto ward, and roughly 460 homes in Tokyo lost power, though electricity service was restored later Sunday morning.

Transportation across the region faced significant disruption in the aftermath of the quake. Express trains serving Tokyo and Narita Airport, along with various local train lines in northeastern Japan, were delayed or suspended following the earthquake. Shinkansen bullet train service, however, continued to operate normally throughout the region, reflecting the strict seismic safety protocols built into Japan’s high-speed rail network.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said authorities were actively assessing the extent of the damage caused by the earthquake, according to reporting from News On Japan. A liaison office was established at the Crisis Management Center within the prime minister’s office to coordinate the government’s response and monitor developments as officials continued evaluating the earthquake’s broader impact across the affected region.

The Japan Meteorological Agency urged residents in areas that experienced strong shaking to remain alert to the possibility of another earthquake of similar magnitude occurring within the coming week, according to The Japan Times, a standard precautionary advisory the agency typically issues following moderate-to-strong seismic events given the increased likelihood of aftershocks during the days immediately following a significant quake.

Sunday’s earthquake struck an area of Japan that is particularly prone to frequent seismic activity. According to the Korea Times, southern Ibaraki Prefecture, where the quake originated, is known for regular seismic events given its location along a complex convergence of tectonic plates beneath the greater Tokyo region.

The magnitude and characteristics of Sunday’s earthquake bear notable similarities to a previous significant quake that struck the same general region in October 2021. That earthquake, also measuring magnitude 5.9, was centered in neighboring Chiba Prefecture at a depth of between 62 and 75 kilometers, depending on the measuring agency, and was at the time described as the strongest earthquake to strike the Tokyo area since the catastrophic 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The 2021 quake injured at least 51 people, according to Wikipedia’s record of the event, and registered a maximum intensity of Shindo 5+, slightly stronger than Sunday’s recorded intensity of lower 5.

Sunday’s earthquake arrived amid a broader stretch of significant news events in Japan. According to News On Japan, the quake struck as two typhoons were separately approaching Okinawa in quick succession, with one storm already affecting the Sakishima Islands with heavy rain and strong winds, while a second, more powerful typhoon continued approaching the region. The earthquake also came just two days after Japan carried out its first execution under the Takaichi administration, when 58-year-old death row inmate Sunao Takami was executed on Aug. 21 for a 2009 arson attack on an Osaka pachinko parlor that killed five people and injured 10 others.

Japan remains one of the most seismically active regions in the world, accounting for roughly 20% of all earthquakes worldwide measuring magnitude 6 or greater, according to prior reporting on the country’s earthquake frequency. The country has invested heavily in earthquake-resistant building codes, early warning systems and public education campaigns in the decades since the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, infrastructure that experts credit with helping limit casualties and structural damage during moderate earthquakes such as Sunday’s event, even as officials continue closely monitoring the region for potential aftershocks in the days ahead.

As cleanup and damage assessment efforts continue across the affected prefectures, officials have not indicated a specific timeline for when the full scope of injuries, infrastructure damage and service disruptions tied to Sunday’s earthquake will be finalized. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s continued advisory regarding the potential for further seismic activity in the coming week is expected to keep residents across the greater Tokyo region on heightened alert as authorities work to confirm the earthquake’s complete impact.

Gold and silver can both have a role in an investor’s portfolio, but they serve different purposes. Tata Mutual Fund in a note on precious metals said that outlook remains bullish on both precious metals over the medium to long term, while favouring a higher allocation to gold due to its defensive nature and relatively lower volatility.

In this note, the fund house said that a 70:30 allocation between gold and silver may be considered as a broad strategic framework for investors looking to diversify their precious metals exposure as this approach gives a higher weight to gold because of its relatively stable and defensive characteristics, while using silver to capture the metal’s longer-term growth potential.

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“For investors seeking diversified exposure to precious metals, we prefer a strategic allocation with a higher weight to gold, given its stability and defensive characteristics, complemented by silver’s long-term growth potential. A 70:30 allocation between gold and silver may be considered as a broad strategic framework,” said Tata Mutual Fund.

In recent weeks, gold prices witnessed a recovery supported by softer US economic data and easing bond yields. In the near term, expectations around US interest rates, movements in the dollar and bond yields could continue to influence prices.

The broader investment case for gold is supported by structural factors such as continued central bank purchases, sustained investment demand and the need for portfolio diversification. Gold also continues to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and currency debasement risks. Investors could therefore consider periods of weakness to gradually build long-term exposure rather than trying to time the market.
Central bank buying has become an especially important support for the yellow metal. According to the World Gold Council data cited in the report, official-sector gold purchases rose to 289 tonnes in the second quarter, the strongest second-quarter buying on record. Total purchases in the first half of 2026 stood at 345 tonnes.SilverSilver has a different investment profile. Unlike gold, which is primarily viewed as a defensive asset, silver has a significant industrial demand component. Its long-term prospects are linked to applications in electronics, AI-related hardware, renewable energy infrastructure and solar technology.

The report notes that silver’s industrial demand exposure could result in greater volatility when global growth slows or interest-rate risks rise. Moderation in solar installations and easing supply tightness have also reduced some near-term demand catalysts. As a result, investors may consider a staggered approach to silver with a medium-to-long-term investment horizon.

Despite these near-term concerns, the longer-term supply-demand picture remains supportive. The report expects 2026 to mark the sixth consecutive year of a silver deficit, with demand continuing to exceed available supply. Industrial applications account for the majority of silver consumption, and industrial demand has steadily increased between 2021 and 2024.

What happened in July?Geopolitical uncertainty remains an important factor for precious metals. The report highlights renewed US-Iran tensions and disruptions to Red Sea shipping routes as key market developments during July. These events pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns about inflation.

At the same time, a strong US dollar remained a headwind for both gold and silver, as investors were attracted towards higher-yielding assets. The gold market was also influenced by a Federal Reserve that remained focused on inflation, while continued central bank purchases and strong physical demand from China provided underlying support.

Gold’s defensive appeal could remain relevant as geopolitical risks persist. The report notes that rising geopolitical tensions reinforce gold’s safe-haven characteristics. It also highlights growing US debt levels and the possibility that policymakers may have limited room to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, which could support gold over time.

Silver’s supply constraints remain a long-term supportSilver’s investment case is also supported by developments on the supply side. China has a significant role in the global silver supply chain, accounting for about 11% of global reserves and controlling an estimated 60% to 70% of refining capacity, according to the report.

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The report suggests that efforts by China to tighten control over silver supply chains and prioritise domestic availability could create constraints in global markets. Combined with a persistent supply deficit and rising industrial demand, these factors support a constructive long-term outlook for silver, despite the possibility of sharp price fluctuations in the near term.

Gold currently has the edge over silverRecent market performance also highlights the different characteristics of the two metals. Domestic gold prices outperformed international gold during the year, supported by rupee depreciation and higher import duties. Indian gold prices were up about 6% year-to-date even as international gold prices declined.

Silver, meanwhile, underperformed gold as its industrial-demand exposure made it more vulnerable to war-driven cost pressures and interest-rate risks. The gold-silver ratio also increased from around 51 in May to 70, reflecting a stronger market preference for gold.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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