Supermarket shoppers face paying more than £16 per kilo for a leg as overlapping religious festivals, shrinking flocks and buoyant export demand squeeze the UK sheep sector

British households sitting down to Easter lunch this weekend are confronting the steepest lamb prices on record, as a rare calendar clash with the end of Ramadan collides with a dwindling national flock and strong Continental export demand.

Figures compiled by the retail analysts Assosia show the average price of a leg of lamb across Tesco, Morrisons, Asda and Sainsbury’s has climbed to £16.23 per kilo, up 12.5 per cent on a year ago, when shoppers were paying £14.43. The sharpest supermarket jumps have landed at Sainsbury’s, where a British butterflied leg has leapt by a third to £20, while its Taste the Difference Welsh Hill half leg is up 22.4 per cent at £17.75. Tesco’s Finest lamb shoulder, meanwhile, has risen 16.4 per cent to the same £17.75 mark.

The price spike at the tills reflects a sharp move in wholesale markets. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reports that wholesale lamb has risen from roughly £7.20 per kilo at Easter last year to almost £8.40 today.

Independent butchers are feeling the pinch too. Sam Bagge, manager of the award-winning Walsingham Farm Shop in Norfolk, said a 2.5kg leg of local, high-welfare lamb is now retailing at £75, up from £65 a year ago. “It’s definitely as expensive as I’ve ever seen it,” he said, adding that budget-minded customers were increasingly trading down to rolled shoulder of pork, which has seen a 30 per cent uplift in demand at £27 a joint.

The livestock auctioneer James Little described the conditions as “a perfect storm”. He said Eid traditionally lifts lamb demand sharply, and with Easter falling early this year the two festive peaks have run straight into one another. “There was a lot of demand at the end of Ramadan and then we’ve run into the Easter demand as well,” he said.

Mr Little added that Britain’s growing Muslim population was underpinning stronger year-round demand: AHDB survey data indicates that 80 per cent of halal consumers in the UK eat lamb at least once a week, against roughly 6 per cent of the population as a whole. On top of that, he pointed to “massive demand for British lamb in France, Belgium, Holland and Portugal”.

Dave Barton, livestock board chairman at the National Farmers’ Union, said prices had been “driven primarily by strong demand from the public outstripping supply, here in the UK and globally”. The squeeze, he warned, is being compounded by a steady contraction in the breeding flock. The National Sheep Association puts the UK’s breeding ewe numbers at 14.7 million, the lowest in living memory.

Mr Barton blamed a collapse in farmer confidence, citing “the phasing out of direct government subsidy payments, alongside high operating costs and market volatility”. He called on ministers to back investment in the sector to rebuild the national flock and secure a “resilient, sustainable and thriving” industry capable of meeting rising demand.

Welsh sheep farmer Gareth Wynn Jones said export appetite remained robust, with Portuguese buyers prizing Welsh mountain lambs for their Christmas barbecues. But he warned that last year’s dry weather had taken its toll on the 2026 crop. “There wasn’t much for them to eat. The number of pregnant ewes was down so there’ll be less lamb on the ground,” he said, signalling that tight supply and firm prices could persist well beyond this Easter weekend.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.