Veteran investor Howard Marks has long argued that successful investing is less about predicting exact turning points and more about understanding where markets stand in the broader cycle. His core message in his book, “Mastering the Market Cycle” has taken on renewed importance in today’s complex and fast-changing market environment, where optimism around technology, selective global growth, and India’s structural story coexist with rising valuations and pockets of excess.

In the current phase, global equities, particularly in the US, are trading at elevated valuations, while themes such as artificial intelligence and select technology leaders continue to attract heavy investor interest. At the same time, central banks are navigating the final stages of a tight monetary cycle, and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

His emphasis on calibrating risk rather than making binary bullish or bearish calls becomes especially relevant in such an environment. Instead of being fully aggressive or fully defensive, the philosophy encourages investors to gradually adjust portfolio positioning based on signals from valuations, investor behaviour, credit conditions, and market psychology.

While markets may not yet be in outright bubble territory, they are increasingly vulnerable to disappointment if growth expectations fail to match lofty prices, according to Howard Marks’ recent remarks. The strong concentration of returns in a narrow set of global technology stocks, combined with investor willingness to pay up for long-term narratives, reflects a phase of the cycle where optimism is high, even if not euphoric.

For Indian investors, this framework offers a useful perspective. Domestic equities continue to benefit from structural growth drivers such as capex, manufacturing, and consumption, but selective stock picking and valuation discipline are becoming more critical. Broad-based easy gains are harder to come by in a market where quality growth is already well priced.

Marks has also consistently highlighted the role of investor psychology in driving market swings far beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. Periods of sustained optimism tend to reduce perceived risk, leading to aggressive positioning, while corrections often create opportunities precisely when sentiment is weakest.
Cycles are shaped as much by human behaviour as by economic data is the enduring lesson. Investors who remain aware of this, trimming risk when enthusiasm is widespread and being prepared to add exposure during periods of fear, improve their odds over time.

In today’s environment, where AI optimism, global liquidity shifts, and valuation concerns intersect, Marks’ philosophy serves as a reminder that mastering the market cycle is less about bold forecasts and more about thoughtful positioning, patience, and respect for risk.

Gold and silver futures rebounded on bargain-hunting after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, offsetting concerns from stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier in the week.

On Friday, MCX silver futures for March 5, 2026 rose 3.62%, up Rs 8,564 to Rs 2,44,999 per kg. Gold futures for April also edged higher by Rs 305, or 0.2%, to Rs 1,56,200 per 10 grams.

In international commodity markets, precious metals rebounded sharply after the previous session’s selloff, with spot silver rising 2.1% to $77.27 per ounce, recovering from an 11% plunge a day earlier. Spot gold also advanced 2.33% to $5,063 and is now up more than 1% for the week. The recovery comes after bullion dropped nearly 3% on Thursday, slipping to its lowest level in almost a week.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January, below economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase, following an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, the Labor Department said.

Gold, silver levels for Monday

MCX Gold continues to exhibit structural resilience despite global consolidation, supported by relative firmness in USD/INR. The Rs 1,50,000 support band remains a strong demand absorption zone, attracting both physical buying and investment flows, reinforcing the integrity of the medium-term rising channel.
“Price behavior at lower levels indicates accumulation rather than distribution. A sustained move above Rs 1,60,000 would likely re-ignite bullish momentum toward Rs 1,65,000–Rs 1,70,000+, while meaningful downside risk remains limited unless COMEX gold breaches its structural support clusters decisively,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said. MCX Silver continues to build a durable base within the Rs 2,33,000–Rs 2,35,000 structural support zone. Price action reflects gradual absorption, with downside momentum notably weaker compared to the prior week’s volatility spike. Volatility compression at these levels signals accumulation rather than liquidation.

A decisive breakout above Rs 2,65,000 would likely attract momentum participation, targeting Rs 2,80,000+ in the medium term, supported by tightening global supply dynamics and steady industrial offtake.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Bitcoin and Ethereum are hovering around the $68,000 and $2,054 levels, respectively. Experts note that while BTC and ETH remain stable as global macro factors start to align, technical indicators and on-chain data are pointing toward a cautious near-term outlook.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin and Ethereum went up 3.73% and 5.51% respectively. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Hyperliquid gained upto 8%. The global crypto market capitalisation went up 3.52% to $2.36 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Also Read | HDFC Defence Fund exists this small cap stock that went up by 500% in 5 yearsRiya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said Bitcoin has recovered to around $68,800, holding above its short-term support but still capped below the 50-day EMA near $69,500 and Ethereum mirrors this setup, hovering around $2,050 and consolidating between $1,950 and $2,100.Sehgal further said that broader sentiment remains cautious as traders assess macro liquidity conditions and capital rotation into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. The market appears to be transitioning from distribution toward early accumulation, but conviction remains fragile pending a clear breakout above key technical levels

In the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were down by 2.66% and 1.31% respectively. Among the major altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Hyperliquid went down over 6% whereas Tron gained 2.50%.
Also Read | Starting out in mutual funds? Here’s how to allocate your investmentsNischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said Bitcoin trades at $68,882, holding steady as global macro catalysts begin to align. January CPI data showed US inflation moderating to 2.4%, easing inflation concerns. When inflation concerns cool, it reduces uncertainty around aggressive rate hikes and brings stability back into risk assets, including crypto.

Ethereum also reclaimed the $2,000 level after a significant drop in futures open interest, indicating that further excessive leverage has been flushed out, Shetty further said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Trucking and transport stocks had one of their worst days ever Thursday thanks to a firm that until recently was in the karaoke business. 

The Florida firm, formerly the Singing Machine Co. RIME 222.22%increase; green up pointing triangle and now known as Algorhythm Holdings, published a news release shortly before stock trading opened touting AI technology capable of increasing trucking efficiencies. Algorhythm, which has a stock market value of less than $3 million, hasn’t landed any software clients in the U.S. yet. But its announcement nonetheless rattled the market.

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