DHARMESH SHAH

HEAD OF TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
For a meaningful pullback to materialise, Nifty must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high–higher low’ pattern on weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week. Failure to do so means the possibility of a prolonged correction cannot be ruled out, wherein critical long-term support is placed in 21,900–21,700 zone.

Our support is based on the following observations: a) Past 25 years’ data suggest that there have been eight occasions where bull market corrections were arrested, with an average decline of 17%. b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions, Nifty has respected the long-term 200-week EMA (barring 2008 and 2020), currently placed at 21,930. c) The April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743. d) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50- and 200-SMAs, and the net daily advance-decline suggests that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, it signals capitulation extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of 23% in the subsequent 6–12 months.

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Trading Strategies: Option Strategy for April
Buy 1 lot of 23,800 CE @ 322
Buy 1 lot of 21,800 PE @ 379
Sell 2 lots of 24,100 CE @ 230
Sell 2 lots of 21,500 PE @ 311

Total inflow is 381 points (Rs 24,765 per lot), which is the minimum profit if the index stays between 21,800 and 23,800. The maximum profit is 650 points (Rs 42,000 per lot) if the index closes at 24,100 or 21,500.

The breakeven range is 20,800 on the downside and 24,800 on the upside. As long as Nifty trades within this range, the strategy remains profitable, with gains between Rs 24,765 and Rs 42,000 per lot. The approximate margin required is Rs 2,20,000.

Agencies

TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Bharti Airtel: Buy at Rs 1,790–1,845, Stop Loss at Rs 1,684, Target: Rs 2,032

Stock has rebounded from its key 20-month EMA, which has held as support in past corrections. After an ~18% fall over four months, it is showing a familiar correction pattern, offering a favourable risk-reward buying opportunity.

DLF: Sell at Rs 523–535, Stop Loss at Rs 546, Target: Rs 502.

Stock has been trading below all its key moving averages, indicating a negative short-term bias. Structurally, the stock has witnessed a multi-month support breakdown, with a lower high–lower low structure on the weekly time frame.

RAHUL SHARMA
HEAD – TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty formed back-to-back doji candles on weekly charts, indicating indecision. Friday’s sell-off came on higher-than-average volumes, with FII shorts in the index at their highest level (2.79 lakh short) since the war began. India VIX has risen to sub-27 levels, suggesting continued gap openings. The daily trend remains down, with significant short additions seen on Friday in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty futures. Immediate support is at 22,471, below which the index could test 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,900 and 23,200.

Trading Strategies: Look to add Nifty ATM puts of next week’s expiry on a bounce back around 23,000 for downside targets of 22,470 and lower. Investors can look to add Nifty ETFs in the range of 21,700–22,000 if the correction extends this week.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Reliance Industries: Sell at CMP Rs 1,348, Stop Loss at Rs 1,380, Target: Rs 1,310/1,280

A bearish breakdown was seen on daily charts on Friday, along with a rise in volumes.

Bharti Airtel: Buy at CMP Rs 1,843, Stop Loss at Rs 1,795, Target: Rs 1,900/1,950

A bullish divergence was seen on daily charts relative to Nifty in the last two weeks, along with a rise in volumes on Friday.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The index remains in a lower high–lower low formation, with rebounds being sold into and the short-term trend firmly bearish. Nifty faced rejection near its 10-DEMA and has breached the 22,950–23,000 support zone, now acting as resistance. Weak momentum (RSI below 40) and elevated India VIX near 26.8 point to continued volatility and downside risk.

As long as Nifty stays below 23,000, the bias remains negative with targets of 22,500 and 22,200. A sustained move above 23,000– 23,100 could trigger short covering towards 23,400–23,500.

Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 22,900–23,000 with a stoploss above 23,100, aiming for 22,600–22,500 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 22,500 CE and buy 25,800 CE of the 07 April 2026 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Ather Energy: Buy at CMP Rs 796, Stop Loss at Rs 748, Target: Rs 880

Ather Energy is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above its previous all-time high zone of Rs 780–790 and hitting fresh highs, signalling trend continuation. The stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating sustained buying interest.

Emcure Pharma: Buy at CMP Rs 1,652, Stop Loss at Rs 1,540, Target: Rs 1,840

Stock shows a strong bullish continuation after breaking above the Rs 1,580 resistance, a key supply zone. It continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating a strengthening trend and accumulation. The breakout is backed by improving participation, signalling demand-driven price action and reinforcing the uptrend.

Across mainland Southeast Asia, the region’s economic story is increasingly being shaped not by exports, industrial growth, or foreign investment, but by households taking on debt simply to meet everyday needs. 

Key takeaways

• Household debt is rising across Southeast Asia as families increasingly borrow to cover everyday living costs rather than build wealth.
• Cambodia stands at the center of the crisis, where rapid credit growth, weak wages, and heavy microfinance borrowing have deepened household vulnerability.
• Analysts warn that if debt pressures continue unchecked, the crisis could spread beyond families and begin to threaten wider economic and financial stability

Analysts say what was once presented as financial inclusion is now becoming a source of financial vulnerability, as easy credit, weak wage growth, and limited public services leave millions of families under growing strain.

Cambodia has become one of the clearest examples of this shift. The country’s private debt to GDP ratio rose from 24.2% in 2010 to 134.5% in 2023, marking one of the fastest debt expansions in the region. That rise is now colliding with a weaker property sector, border disruptions with Thailand, and fresh US trade restrictions, intensifying pressure on already indebted households.

According to Cambodia’s Credit Bureau, the average outstanding personal loan per borrower stood at around $6,500 in December 2025, despite the garment sector’s minimum wage being only $208 per month. The figures highlight how sharply household borrowing has outpaced income growth in one of the region’s most vulnerable economies.

Borrowing for Daily Survival

The problem extends beyond Cambodia. Thailand’s household debt reached 86.8% of GDP in 2025, placing it among the most indebted economies in Asia. Myanmar is also dealing with chronic household debt, while Malaysia’s household debt stood at 84.3% of GDP by mid 2025.

The composition of debt varies across the region, with Malaysia’s borrowing concentrated in housing and vehicle loans, while Thailand carries a heavier share of personal consumption debt.

Experts say a growing number of households are borrowing not to invest or build wealth, but simply to cover food, healthcare and other basic expenses. In Thailand, 64% of non-performing loan accounts were linked to credit cards and personal loans, while many borrowers were spending more than half of their monthly income on debt repayments.

Rising living costs, combined with external shocks such as tariff threats and regional instability, have made that burden even harder to manage.

Antonios Roumpakis of Hong Kong Metropolitan University said Cambodia and Myanmar have been especially exposed because their growth models are more vulnerable to regional tensions and US tariffs. He also pointed to deeper structural problems, including oversupplied credit, weak financial regulation, and poor lending decisions, as key drivers of the crisis.

Microfinance, Poverty, and Wider Financial Risk

Microfinance has become a central issue in the debate over rising debt. Milford Bateman of Royal Holloway, University of London, said the boom in household debt across much of the Global South, particularly in Cambodia, can be directly linked to the commercialization of microcredit institutions that were once not-for-profit. Human Rights Watch reported that Cambodia’s 3.8 million households held more than 3.1 million microloans worth over $18 billion.

For many families, borrowing is increasingly tied to emergencies rather than opportunity. A health financing study found that 28% of people in Cambodia had borrowed money to pay for healthcare, while a 2025 UN study found that 23% of urban households in Myanmar were borrowing for medical costs. Analysts warn that such debt can trap families in long term poverty, often forcing them to sell assets or seek dangerous forms of work to survive.

The risks are also spreading into the broader economy. In Cambodia, the return of large numbers of migrant workers from Thailand has worsened household vulnerability, while falling remittances have removed an important financial buffer for many families.

In Thailand, heavy debt levels have been blamed for weak consumption, prompting repeated stimulus efforts by the government. Economists warn that if household debt continues to deteriorate, it could evolve from a social crisis into a wider banking problem.

Cambodia’s central bank has already approved the creation of asset management institutions to purchase non-performing loans, a sign of increasing urgency rather than long-term reform confidence. Analysts say the region’s debt crisis will not be solved by credit markets alone.

Stronger banking oversight, tighter regulation of microfinance, and broader access to healthcare, education, and housing will be essential if households are to avoid borrowing beyond their limits.

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Sai Parenteral’s IPO subscription status

The mainboard issue that closed on Friday, was subscribed 1.05 times over a three-day bidding period. It received over 78.80 lakh share bids against 75,22,486 equity shares available for booking.

The demand was mainly driven by non-institutional investors’ (NII) who subscribed the issue 2.36 times. Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) subscribed the IPO 1.71 times their quota, while Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) hardly showed any interest, subscribing just 12% shares of the available quota.

Here’s how you can check the status on BSE:

Step 1: Visit the BSE ‘Status Application Check’ page https://www.bseindia.com/investors/appli_check.aspx

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Step 2: Select Issue Type: Equity/Debt
Step 3: Put PAN/Application No. and enter checkbox ‘I’m not a robot’.Step 4: Submit ‘Search’

Its stock is expected to get listed on April 2.

About Sai Parenteral’s IPO

The company has set the price band at Rs 372– 392 per share and retail investors can make applications for a minimum of 1 lot which comprises 38 equity shares amounting to Rs 14,896.

The IPO’s fresh issue aggregates up to Rs 285 crores while the OFS aggregates up to Rs 123.79 crores which includes anchor investor portion of 31,28,485 equity shares.

The company raised Rs 122.63 crore on Monday through five anchor investors.

It has reserved 50% of the issue for qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), up to 35% for retail investors and 15% for non-institutional investors (NIIs).

Sai Parenteral’s IPO GMP

Shares of Sai Parenteral’s were not commanding any grey market premium (GMP) ahead of the opening of the issue. This implies a flat listing. The GMP is only an indicative price and could change as the issue progresses.

Sai Parenteral’s IPO net proceeds

The gross proceeds from the issue will be to the tune of Rs 285 crore. The company will utilise Rs 110.8 crore towards capacity expansion and upgradation of manufacturing facilities, Rs 18 crore for establishment of a new R&D Centre, Rs 14 crore towards repayment of borrowings, and Rs 33 crore for its working capital requirements.

About Sai Parenteral’s

Sai Parenteral’s (SPL) is a diversified pharmaceutical formulations company engaged in the business of branded generic formulations and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation (CDMO) products & services for the domestic and international markets. The company’s portfolio includes formulation products, covering both high-value and high-volume categories across therapeutic areas like cardiovascular, neuropsychiatry, anti-diabetic, etc., with offerings across dosage forms such as injectables, tablets, capsules, liquid orals and ointments.

Sai Parenteral’s Financials

The company’s revenue from operations in H1FY26 stood at Rs 303 crore while its profit after tax (PAT) stood at Rs 2 crore. For FY25, revenue stood at Rs 495 crore versus Rs 154 crore in FY24 and Rs 97 crore in FY23. The PAT stood at Rs 20 crore in FY25 versus Rs 8 crore in FY24 and Rs 4 crore in FY23.

Sai Parenteral’s IPO lead managers

The Book Running Lead Managers (BRLMs) is Arihant Capital Markets Ltd while the registrar to the issue is Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Investigators reportedly found cocaine and fentanyl hidden inside Barbie doll packaging that had been sold to multiple unsuspecting customers in Missouri last weekend.

The incident occurred on March 21 after discount retailer Cargo Largo reported finding a “suspicious powder substance” in the packaging of the dolls, the Independence Police Department (IPD) reported. 

Officials determined that five compromised units were sold but were able to recover all the affected items within hours of launching an investigation.  

“At approximately 10:18 am this morning, IPD was contacted by Cargo Largo Security regarding a suspicious powder substance located in the packaging of a Barbie Doll,” officials said.

OVER 190,000 ‘LETHAL’ DOSES OF COCAINE SEIZED IN VALENTINE’S DAY WEEK BUST AT SOUTHERN BORDER

A worker carries Barbie dolls to put them on the shelves at a toy store. (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/File Photo/Reuters / Reuters)

The retailer added in a statement that while initial tests indicated the presence of fentanyl, additional tests confirmed that the substance was cocaine with trace amounts of fentanyl.

No injuries were reported and police noted that the Barbie Dolls themselves were not compromised. 

AUTISTIC BARBIE JOINS MATTEL DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION LINE

A box of Barbie dolls doing gymnastics in a section of a toy store on Nov. 15, 2025.  (Nicolas Guyonnet/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The substance was discovered taped inside the back packaging of the dolls, IPD said.

The retailer added that they identified the source and shared all relevant information with the authorities. 

A small bag of fentanyl on display on Wednesday, September 16, 2015, in London, Ohio. (Ty Wright for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Following the discovery, Cargo Largo allowed investigators and multiple K9 units to conduct a thorough sweep of the store and warehouse. 

No additional risks were found, the retailer said.

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Police added there is no reason to believe any compromised units were sent to other locations.

“Moving forward, we will schedule regular inspections of both facilities to maintain a safe environment,” the retailer said.

FOX Business reached out to IPD, Cargo Largo and Mattel for more information. 

Late Friday, the Reserve Bank of India announced new rules capping the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The change, effective April 10, forces lenders to shrink their books, limiting their ability to run large one-sided bets against the rupee.

The urgency reflects deep concern about the rupee, which has slid to successive record lows following the Iran war. That is pushing the RBI to shift away from relying mainly on spot and forward market interventions — tools that have already contributed to a more than $30 billion drawdown in foreign-exchange reserves in the first three weeks of March, according to people familiar with the matter, to more direct measures targeting financial institutions.

“The move signals clear discomfort with rupee weakness and reflects a shift from direct intervention to controlling market positioning, offering near-term stability but limited influence on longer-term fundamentals,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank in Mumbai.

Lenders are seeking to delay the deadline to comply, warning that such a rapid unwind may trigger large losses, and urging that the rule apply only to new bets, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News.

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Bloomberg

Pressure on the rupee has mounted since the Iran war broke out a month ago. The currency has fallen more than 4% over that period to 94.82 as of Friday, and is Asia’s worst performer this year. Uncertainty over the duration of the conflict has prompted global funds to pull more than $11 billion from Indian equities, while index-eligible bonds have seen record outflows of $1.6 billion in March.
Part of the challenge for policymakers is where that pressure is coming from. While the rupee trades in Mumbai, price signals are increasingly determined overseas in hubs like Singapore, London and New York, through derivatives that let investors take positions without access to domestic markets.That makes traditional intervention less effective. Large positions can build outside India’s regulatory reach and feed back to domestic markets via arbitrage, forcing the RBI to respond by selling dollars, draining reserves while doing little to curb the underlying build-up.

By capping how much risk banks can carry, authorities are trying to make it harder for those positions to accumulate in the first place — echoing steps taken in 2011, when the RBI tightened banks’ net open position limits.

“This is a period of extreme stress for the rupee because of an unprecedented energy shock,” said R. Gurumurthy, a former RBI regional director who previously oversaw dollar-rupee interventions. “If you look at past instances where the rupee has faced such rapid depreciation in such a short time, the RBI has always stepped in with exceptional steps.”

Bloomberg

The growth in offshore trading has long unsettled the RBI. When London overtook Mumbai as the top center for rupee trading in 2019, officials warned that offshore rupee trading was being driven by “speculators and arbitrageurs.”

Most of this activity is in non-deliverable forwards — contracts commonly used in emerging markets, especially for currencies that are not freely traded — allowing investors to hedge or bet on future values without physically exchanging the rupee.

The market’s rapid expansion has coincided with a persistent slide in the rupee, even as India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, expanding at more than 7% annually in recent years. Capital markets have also grown, drawing about $16 billion from foreign investors into Indian bonds since their inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s flagship index in June 2024.

Yet the rupee has weakened more than 25% since 2019, underscoring the disconnect between strong domestic fundamentals and currency performance.

The offshore market “exhibits exaggerated movements,” said G. Mahalingam, a former RBI executive director who was part of a 2019 task force set up to examine overseas rupee trading. “It takes the lead and the domestic market follows.”

Root Problems

Intervention alone has struggled to close that gap. The RBI was a net seller of $51.7 billion of dollars last year, the most on record, and has continued to step in during bouts of volatility, including at the onset of the Iran conflict.

The impact has been limited, highlighting the constraints of direct intervention when it runs up against broader macro forces like a strong dollar and shifting global risk sentiment. Other emerging-market currencies like the Philippine peso and South Korean won have also tumbled after the Middle East conflict broke out.

“Trying to stem currency depreciation by putting the squeeze on offshore markets rarely has the intended effect of staving off speculative pressures,” said Eswar Shanker Prasad, senior professor of trade policy at Cornell University. “The root problems underlying a currency’s falling value need to be addressed.”

With intervention proving costly, the central bank has widened its approach. Besides the limits on open positions, it has also proposed stricter reporting rules requiring overseas affiliates of lenders to disclose rupee-linked trades to a clearing house supervised by the RBI, in a bid to better understand who is driving offshore activity and why.

The plan has met resistance. Global banks said it could breach client confidentiality, conflict with data and reporting rules in other jurisdictions and require major changes to their systems, data formats and legal agreements.

“Some banks may need time to set up their reporting mechanisms, which could result in a temporary, limited decline in liquidity,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management.

The Financial Times on Sunday quoted President Donald Trump saying the U.S. could seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, from where Iran exports much of its oil, but also that a ceasefire could come quickly.

Pakistan said it was preparing to host “meaningful talks” to end the conflict over ‌Iran in coming days ⁠even though ⁠Tehran earlier accused Washington of preparing a land assault as the U.S. military sends more troops to the region.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis also launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict.

“Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, capacity to disrupt global energy and food markets, and sustained missile and drone capabilities give it little incentive to concede, pressuring the U.S. to escalate,” said Madison Cartwright, senior geo-economics analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

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“We expect the war to run at least into June, with the risk tilted to a longer conflict.”
The clampdown on the Strait has sent prices for oil, gas, fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for planes and shipping. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals and petrochemical products are all set to rise. That is bad news for Asia, as much of the region is highly dependent on energy from the ⁠Middle East. ‌Japan’s Nikkei shed another 4.7%, bringing losses for March to almost 14%.

South Korea’s market fell 4.2%, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2%.

S&P 500 futures lost 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.9%. For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both slid 1.5%, while FTSE futures fell ⁠1.0%.

Brent crude rose 3.0% to $115.98 a barrel, bringing its gains for the month to 60% and topping the jump that followed Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude climbed 3.0% to $102.52, making a monthly rise of 53%.

“The longer the Strait remains closed, the sharper the drawdown in buffer supplies that could spark dramatic increases in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities,” warned Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan.

“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply.”

FED IN FOCUS AS PAYROLLS LOOM
The inflationary threat has led investors to revise up the outlook for interest rates almost everywhere. Markets now imply 12 basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve this year, compared with 50 basis points of cuts a month ago.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a ‌chance to air his own views at an event later on Monday, and the influential head of the New York Fed, John Williams, is also talking.

Data on U.S. retail sales, manufacturing and payrolls this week will provide an update on how the economy is travelling. Jobs are seen rising 55,000 in March, after February’s shock 92,000 drop, keeping unemployment ⁠at 4.4%.

In the European Union, figures on Tuesday are forecast to show annual inflation leaped to 2.7% in March from 1.9% the month before, though core prices should be steadier.

The energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal budgets from higher borrowing costs and the need for more defence spending, has slugged sovereign bond markets.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are up roughly 47 basis points for the month so far at 4.428%, while two-year yields have climbed 54 basis points.

Heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar as the world’s most liquid currency. The United States is also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and much of Asia.

The dollar was holding at 160.12 yen, having last week crossed the 160 barrier for the first time since July 2024 when Japan last intervened to prop up the currency.

The euro was stuck at $1.1500, not far from the March trough of $1.1409.

In commodity markets, gold was down 1.0% at $4,445 an ounce , having drawn scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation risks.

A nationwide recall has been issued for two chocolate products after they were found to contain undeclared prescription drug ingredients, federal health officials warn.

California-based Gear Isle is voluntarily recalling certain units of its “Gold Lion Aphrodisiac Chocolate” and “ilum Sex Chocolate” after testing revealed the presence of sildenafil and tadalafil — active ingredients commonly used in erectile dysfunction medications, according to a Thursday announcement from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The products were sold online across the U.S. and marketed as dietary supplements.

CHOCOLATE CANDY SOLD AT LIDL RECALLED OVER UNDECLARED HAZELNUT ALLERGEN

Bars of chocolate are pictured on a table. (iStock / iStock)

The FDA warned that the undeclared ingredients could pose serious health risks, particularly for people taking nitrate medications for heart conditions. 

The combination can cause a sudden and potentially “life-threatening” drop in blood pressure, according to the FDA.

“Among the adult male population who are most likely to use these products, adult males who use nitrates for cardiac conditions are most at risk from these products,” the announcement noted.

ALDI RECALLS POPULAR SNACK FOOD OVER POSSIBLE RODENT HAIR CONTAMINATION

A blister pack containing Viagra tablets on July 17, 2025, in London, England. (Peter Dazeley/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The recall covers:

• Gold Lion Aphrodisiac Chocolate Male Enhancement Sachet (UPC: 795847916279, exp. June 2027)
• ilum Sex Chocolate Male Sexual Enhancement Booster (UPC: 1002448578911, exp. Dec. 25, 2027)

Gear Isle said it has not received any reports of adverse events tied to the products.

Consumers are urged to stop using the products immediately and return them for a refund. 

HERBAL SUPPLEMENT FOUND TO CONTAIN HIDDEN VIAGRA INGREDIENT, FDA URGES CONSUMERS TO STOP USE

A person uses a digital blood pressure monitor at home. (iStock / iStock)

Anyone experiencing symptoms should contact a healthcare provider, according to the FDA.

The recall follows a similar action earlier this month, when New Mexico-based Primal Supplements Group LLC voluntarily recalled certain units of its Primal Herbs “Volume” sexual enhancement product after it was also found to contain sildenafil, according to the FDA.

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Gear Isle did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.