Business
Nifty below 200-DMA but oscillators yet to signal outright collapse: Anand James
However, he notes that momentum oscillators have yet to confirm a full-fledged breakdown, indicating that an outright collapse is not imminent unless key support levels are decisively breached.
Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty ended the week around 1% lower as IT stocks pulled the index down. How do you see the market shaping up in the first week of March?
After persistently preventing a breakdown despite multiple attempts throughout the month, the 200-day SMA finally gave way on the last working day of the month. This has raised worries of a retest of February lows of 24571. However, with the first test of the lower Bollinger band, with super trend support at 25033 available within touching distance, we are hopeful of a recovery move in the second half of the week. However, slippage past the 25000 region could negate the prospects of a near-term recovery. That said, oscillators are yet to signal an outright collapse.
In the last 3 days, Nifty IT attempted to climb up. What do you think is this a dead cat bounce or sustainable uptrend? Is it too early to say that IT stocks have bottomed out?
Over the past few sessions, Nifty IT’s bounce looks more like a technical rebound than the start of a sustainable uptrend. The index recently hit a fresh 52 week low near 29875, and despite a minor uptick, it continues to trade below key moving averages, confirming a bearish setup.
On the daily chart, price remains below the immediate resistance at 31100-31300, and only a decisive move above 33200-34400 would indicate a structural trend change. Until then, rallies are vulnerable to selling. The weekly chart reinforces this weakness with the index breaking down from a recent H&S structure, marking a clear bearish phase.
If we look at the seasonality, the last 15 years show that March has been net negative on average for the Nifty IT Index, with a low win rate of just 40% and relatively high volatility, forming a bearish cloud over the sector.Given this backdrop, it is too early to declare a bottom. For a meaningful trend reversal, the index must protect 30,000 and form a higher low and reclaim and hold above 33,200-34,400.
Hence, the recent uptick in Nifty IT is more likely a dead‑cat bounce than the beginning of a new uptrend. The sector remains in a deep corrective phase with no confirmed bottom yet. We will wait for the price to reclaim key resistance zones before treating any bounce as the start of a durable reversal.
In the last 3 trading sessions, have we seen shorts winding up in IT stocks?
Although the first two sessions of the new series witnessed short‑covering in several stock futures, major index constituents such as TCS, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra lost momentum on Friday. Around 60% of the near‑ITM and OTM call option strikes saw fresh short additions, indicating caution at higher levels. Additionally, nearly 60% of stock futures registered short build‑up on Friday, and close to 80% showed short additions on a week‑on‑week basis. Overall, the derivatives landscape suggests that traders remain unconvinced by the recent pullback and may be positioning lightly for further downside before considering fresh bullish exposure.
Metals are doing well. What are the charts telling you?
On the daily chart, the Nifty Metal Index is consolidating just below the 12450-12500 resistance zone, marked by multiple failed attempts to break higher. Candles show tight-bodied price action near the upper band of the previous rally, indicating buyers are still active but facing overhead supply. The trend structure remains positive with price holding above the short‑term moving averages and maintaining higher lows. However, the latest red candle and a mild rollover in the MACD histogram suggest short‑term loss of momentum, warranting caution if 12150-12200 is breached.
On the weekly chart, the index has displayed a strong medium-term uptrend, having broken above prior swing highs with expanding bullish candles. The price continues to ride the green cloud zone, reflecting healthy trend strength. Elevated volumes in recent weeks reinforce the possibility of institutional participation.
If we look at the derivatives picture, it presents mixed signals. Around 80% of metal stock futures saw short additions on Friday, while roughly 60% added longs on a week‑on‑week basis. Furthermore, nearly 80% of the near‑OTM call option strikes witnessed short build‑up on Friday. Taken together, F&O traders appear to be positioning for some short‑term negativity
So, expect near term weakness but a decisive weekly close above 12,500 could trigger the next leg higher.
Tejas was the biggest gainer in the week. How would you trade the stock now?
The steepness of the last two days’ rise as well as the approach of a near term resistance at 441 raises potential for a pause. However, we believe that the stock is poised for larger gains, supported by a narrow range breakout as well as bullish continuation patterns, projecting a near term objective of 522-533. Stop loss may be placed near 389 or 376.
Give us your top ideas of the week.
PARAGMILK (CMP: 202)
View: Buy
Target: 222 – 235
Stoploss – 187The weekly chart shows the stock in a corrective phase after a sharp decline from the 360-380 region. Price has now dropped toward a key support zone around 180-190, which aligns closely with the 200 WMA, historically a strong long‑term support area. The Doji candle formed in the weekly scale reflects a slowdown in bearish momentum, suggesting early signs of stabilization as buyers attempt to defend this level.
Despite the correction, the broader trend structure from mid‑2023 to 2025 still reflects a sequence of higher highs and higher lows keeping the longer‑term uptrend intact.
The weekly MACD histograms have shifted back in favor of buyers. A flattening or upward turn in the MACD line would serve as the first confirmation of renewed strength.
Overall, the stock is positioned at a critical support juncture warranting a pullback toward 225-235, while a decisive close below the 200-week moving average may open downside potential toward 160.
HEG (CMP: 578)
View: Buy
Target: 625
Stoploss – 560HEG is displaying a steady medium‑term uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by consistent higher lows since mid‑2024. The price continues to trade well above the 200‑WMA, indicating strong long‑term structural strength. Recent candles show tightening consolidation between 540 and 600, suggesting the stock is building energy for its next directional move.
The latest bounce from the lower end of this range reflects active dip buying, keeping the overall bias positive as long as the stock holds above 560-40. A decisive weekly close above 600 would confirm a breakout continuation, opening the path toward higher targets.
The weekly MACD remains slightly positive but flat, implying momentum is still neutral and awaiting a trigger.
Overall, HEG remains in a constructive setup. Sustaining above support and breaking past 600 with volume would strengthen the bullish case.
Business
Henry Chen: From Wall Street to Digital Asset
The modern world of business is demanding more of entrepreneurs and leaders than ever before; it’s no longer possible for a professional to lead purely on a technical basis, nor on an operational one. Few business leaders are able to become the hybrid executives that are so necessary to modern growth and transformation initiatives. The ones that rise to the challenge can’t help but stand out.
Henry Chen is one such example. As a seasoned finance professional and entrepreneur in the fintech and blockchain industry, his expertise with the technology that’s driving the modern world has been well-proven. When that is combined with another 15 years of experience across investment banking, private capital management, and digital asset markets, Henry Chen represents a unique bridge between traditional finance and modern digital ecosystems. His professional journey ranges from UBS and Goldman Sachs to KU Holdings (Parent of KuCoin) and Summer Capital, culminating in his current role as Chief Business Officer at SNZ Holding.
Henry Chen’s transition from global banking institutions into senior strategic roles at finance and fintech companies like KU Holdings and Summer Capital is not a common one for a reason. Being able to strike the balance between institutional discipline and digital innovation is a rare skill, but it’s one that’s becoming more important for business leaders every year. Well-rounded and holistic leadership is crucial in a world with increasingly globalized and technology-driven markets.
“The ability to ‘speak both languages’ is crucial,” Henry says. “You need to understand how bankers, regulators and institutional investors think, and at the same time appreciate how developers, founders and crypto‑native communities operate.”
Traditional Finance Vs. Digital Ecosystems
Having served in high-performing leadership roles in both traditional investment banking environments and high-growth digital asset ecosystems, Henry Chen has developed a well-rounded understanding of both fields—and how they intersect. Both environments left him with foundational understanding that could be leveraged elsewhere, and by synthesizing the two he was able to develop a leadership philosophy capable of bridging the gap between them.
“It has given me a 360‑degree view of how capital, technology, and financial markets correspond to each other,” Henry explains. “My philosophy today is about combining these worlds: being entrepreneurial, open to experimentation and caring about individual mentality, while still insisting on governance, operational efficiency, and commercialization models that can stand up to institutional scrutiny. I try to be a bridge between builders and institutions, translating highly technical concepts into clear business and regulatory language, and vice versa.”
So what are the big differences between these two environments? Put simply, the traditional financial institutions are highly structured and value predictability, while the fintech and digital ecosystems are defined by speed, scalability, and open-source collaboration. It’s an old dichotomy: structured, predictable, execution-focused institutions on one side; flexible, fast, disruptive, and innovative startups on the other. Banks and other traditional institutions are built around structured processes, well-defined product lines, and regulated workflows, with innovation following regulator guidance and client demand. In digital fintech and blockchain systems, the constant creation of new primitives, the prediction market, and real-world asset tokenization represent an iterative, experimental, and consensus driven environment.
“At global investment banks, I learned the importance of sustainable business model, market positioning and fundamental valuation methodology, institutional‑grade operational processes, cross-team collaboration, and long‑term client relationships, which has deeply influenced how I make decisions and mobilizes team resource even in fast‑moving crypto markets,” Chen recalls. “On the digital asset side, particularly at SNZ and Summer Capital, I was exposed to founder‑driven innovation, rapid product cycles, and community‑centric ecosystems and focus on humanity, that move at a very different pace from traditional finance.”
The hierarchical institutional stability, precision, and quality of traditional institutions focus on measurable success and maximal profitability. The open-source, freely experimental, and deeply creative blockchain environment focuses on speed and innovation. The two fields seem to have few things in common, but however dichotomous they may seem, the two environments’ strengths and values can in fact be brought together. It just takes someone who understands both sides, and Henry Chen has established himself as precisely that.
“Having operated in both worlds, I see my role as importing institutional discipline into crypto, while preserving the creativity and openness that make this industry so compelling,” he says. “At the end of day, any technology, business model, or project shall be built to serve some real purposes and use cases—which is essentially the human being, and organizations from the real world. It’s just a matter of differentiated or upgraded process, methodology or approach.”
A Strategic Blend Of Expertise
Henry Chen’s unique blend of leadership experience and expertise have made him uniquely valuable in a strategic role as the both traditional and blockchain financial ecosystems evolve. At KU Holdings (parent of KuCoin), Summer Capital, and in his current role with SNZ, his strategic priorities have been focused on branding and networking, with an eye for building long-term business sustainability and the creation of real economic value. Chen’s goal is to position SNZ as a long-term, credible, capable, and resourceful partner to both builders and institutions—whether they’re traditional finance or crypto natives—around the world, but particularly in Asia.
Henry’s rigorous foundation in financial infrastructure across both consumer and institutional markets—courtesy of his career at investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS—allows him to identify use cases for blockchain and crypto technologies, while his experience in those digital environments lets him draw clear connections between modern technology projects and cases he’s experienced in the past. The result is that he can identify viable business models, high-potential products, and feasible corporate strategies instead of getting drawn into interminable hype cycles or falling victim to crypto market price volatility and noise.
“Economic value is about making sure we are not only capturing short‑term trading or speculative upside, but also enabling new infrastructure, use cases, and revenue streams that benefit users, communities, and shareholders in a measurable way,” Chen says. “In such fast‑evolving markets, discipline on these three dimensions helps us avoid chasing noise and instead build something compounding and durable.”
It’s a skillset that Henry Chen expects to only grow more valuable in the coming years. He expects to see digital finance move from the periphery to the core of global capital markets over the next five years, driven by tokenization, programmable assets, and more mature regulatory regimes. Additionally, he predicts a convergence between traditional financial infrastructure and blockchain rails, where assets like securities, funds, and collateral are issued and managed on-chain (even if users don’t see the underlying technology).
“Experienced institutional leaders will play a key role in this transition by translating between regulatory expectations, risk frameworks, and the capabilities of decentralized technologies,” Chen explains. “Their job is not to slow innovation, but to shape it in a way that is sustainable, compliant, and accessible to a much broader set of participants.”
Business
Asia Markets Plunge Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Asian equities plunged on Monday as mounting tensions between the United States and Iran rattled global energy markets. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 3.6%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped nearly 6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai’s Composite Index lost 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. Investors fled risk assets amid fears of prolonged disruption to oil and gas supplies.
At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass. Since late February, the strait has been effectively blocked following US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Washington has threatened further military action unless Tehran reopens the passage, while Iran has vowed retaliation against regional energy and desalination infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns the standoff could trigger the worst energy crisis in decades, drawing comparisons to the 1970s oil shocks and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, compounding inflationary pressures across Asia.
Regional economies are particularly vulnerable:
- Japan relies on the Middle East for 95% of crude imports, with 70% transiting Hormuz.
- South Korea sources about 70% of its crude from the region.
- India depends on the Gulf for 58% of imports, though Russian supplies provide partial relief.
- China imports roughly half its crude from the Middle East, with Iran alone supplying 11%.
LNG disruptions are also hitting South Asia hard. Pakistan and Bangladesh face acute shortages, with reserves covering only two to three weeks of consumption.
The escalating conflict underscores Asia’s heavy reliance on Gulf energy and highlights the fragility of global supply chains. Analysts warn that prolonged instability could force governments to consider rationing, accelerate diversification of energy sources, and intensify inflationary pressures across the region.
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Is David Ben Gurion International Airport Open Today? Airport Remains Open but Heavily Restricted
TEL AVIV, Israel — David Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV/LLBG), Israel’s primary gateway for international travel, continues to operate on March 23, 2026, but under severe limitations due to the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. The airport has not fully closed today, yet flight schedules remain drastically reduced, with strict passenger caps, cancellations and security-driven restrictions in place as missile threats and retaliatory strikes persist.

Flight tracking platforms such as FlightAware and FlightStats show limited activity at Ben Gurion early Monday local time. Arrivals and departures are sporadic, primarily involving Israeli carriers like El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa. Real-time data indicates a handful of flights, including some late-night arrivals from the previous day and minimal outbound operations. Weather conditions remain favorable — clear skies with light winds — but operational decisions are dictated by security assessments rather than meteorology.
The airport’s status stems from the broader war that intensified in late February 2026 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, including the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with waves of missile and drone attacks, including claims of strikes near or on Ben Gurion using advanced systems like the Arash-2 drone. Iranian state media reported successful hits in recent days, though Israeli officials have downplayed damage to critical infrastructure while acknowledging debris impacts on private aircraft parked at the airport.
These incidents prompted repeated adjustments to operations. Outbound passenger limits were reimposed after shrapnel damaged three private jets earlier this month, reducing capacity on wide-body flights to the United States to about 130 passengers (down from prior allowances of 270) and maintaining caps around 120 for narrow-body European routes. El Al canceled numerous scheduled flights through March 27 to destinations across Europe, North America and beyond, citing Home Front Command directives and airport restrictions. Affected cities include Budapest, Zurich, Barcelona, Berlin, Boston, Frankfurt, London Luton, Paris, Prague, Vienna and others.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued updated security alerts as recently as March 22, advising that Ben Gurion is “operating on a highly limited basis” with fewer flights and reduced passenger loads. Americans are urged to depart on available commercial options if deemed safe, though the embassy has scaled back organized assistance flights. The State Department emphasized not heading to the airport without confirmed tickets or direct contact, due to gathering restrictions and chaos risks.
Israeli Transportation Ministry announcements and the Airports Authority website reflect phased reopenings since early March, starting with repatriation flights to bring home stranded citizens. Over 140,000 Israelis have returned via limited inbound operations, but outbound travel remains tightly controlled. Foreign airlines largely suspended service to Tel Aviv, with carriers like Air France, Delta, United, Aegean, airBaltic and Air Canada extending cancellations well into April or beyond.
Passenger experiences have been chaotic. Reports from mid-March described endless lines, last-minute cancellations and stranded travelers amid the war’s unpredictability. Some repatriation efforts succeeded, but recent escalations — including missile waves targeting central Israel — forced further curbs. Private aviation took hits from debris, underscoring risks even on the ground.
Despite disruptions, the airport has not shut down entirely today. The Israel Airports Authority maintains a flight board showing scheduled (though often delayed or limited) movements, and sources indicate ongoing coordination for essential and repatriation flights. Cargo operations continue under prior arrangements, requiring special approvals.
Travelers are advised to check airline websites directly — El Al, Israir, Arkia — for real-time updates, as schedules change rapidly based on security evaluations. The NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) from the Israel Civil Aviation Authority continues to restrict civilian airspace severely, barring most foreign carriers. Passengers should monitor official channels like the IAA site (iaa.gov.il), FlightAware or apps for alerts.
The situation ties directly to the wider US-Iran confrontation, now in its fourth week, with threats to regional chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz amplifying global aviation fallout. Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai, Doha and others have faced closures or restrictions, compounding rerouting challenges.
For those planning travel to or from Israel, experts recommend flexibility, travel insurance covering war-related disruptions and avoiding non-essential trips. The airport’s partial functionality allows some movement — primarily for Israelis returning or limited outbound departures — but full normalcy remains distant amid active hostilities.
As of midday March 23 local time (early morning UTC), no new full closure has been announced, though further Iranian actions or Israeli countermeasures could alter status quickly. Authorities stress vigilance, with the Home Front Command guiding all decisions.
Ben Gurion’s resilience under fire highlights its strategic importance, yet the war has transformed what was once a bustling hub into a tightly controlled facility. Travelers should prepare for delays, reduced options and potential last-minute changes in this volatile environment.
Business
How SMS Verification Tools Are Shaping Secure Digital Experiences for Modern Businesses
In today’s digital economy, businesses of all sizes are accelerating their online presence to meet customer expectations and drive growth. With this shift comes increased exposure to cyber threats and fraudulent activities that can undermine customer trust and corporate reputation. As digital transformation accelerates, executives and professionals are seeking strategies that not only improve operational performance but also safeguard customer interactions across digital touchpoints. One often overlooked yet highly effective technology in this mix is SMS‑based verification.
SMS verification has quickly become a standard practice for authenticating users, validating transactions, and ensuring secure customer communication. Its relevance spans multiple sectors, from fintech and eCommerce to SaaS platforms and enterprise solutions. For many organizations, integrating a reliable verification service is crucial to maintaining both compliance and a seamless user experience. One solution gaining attention in this space is SMSPool NCloud Free SMS Tool, which provides scalable and adaptable SMS verification support for businesses looking to reinforce their digital security at minimal cost.
The Growing Importance of Secure Authentication
As businesses expand their digital reach, the volume of interactions taking place online is skyrocketing. Customers increasingly expect swift, seamless, and secure digital experiences—whether they’re registering for a new service, making a purchase, or resetting a password. At the same time, cyber threats are evolving at an unprecedented pace. According to recent reporting by the BBC, cybercrime incidents have surged, with breaches and digital fraud affecting millions of consumers and businesses worldwide. These trends make it clear that secure authentication solutions are no longer optional—they’re imperative for any business operating online.
Authentication challenges can manifest in various ways:
- Stolen credentials used in automated login attempts
- Fake account creation that skews analytics and incurs unnecessary costs
- Unauthorized transactions that lead to chargebacks and customer dissatisfaction
When organizations prioritize secure access, they not only protect sensitive data but also uphold customer confidence—a foundation of repeat business and brand loyalty.
How SMS Verification Enhances Business Security
SMS verification is a form of two‑factor authentication (2FA) that uses a code sent to a user’s mobile phone as a second layer of identity validation. This method adds a protective barrier beyond passwords, which are susceptible to breaches and reuse across platforms. The integration of SMS verification tools can significantly reduce exposure to automated attacks, phishing attempts, and account takeovers.
Key Benefits of SMS Verification
- Lower fraud risk: By requiring a one‑time code sent to the customer’s device, businesses ensure that access is granted only when both credentials and possession of a device are validated.
- Improved user experience: SMS remains a familiar and accessible method for users worldwide, requiring no additional apps or tools.
- Enhanced trust: Customers feel more secure when they know that their accounts and transactions are better protected.
With these advantages, it’s no surprise that organizations across industries are adopting SMS authentication as a core component of their security strategy. As Forbes notes, robust identity verification systems are critical as online fraud tactics grow more sophisticated and pervasive.
Real‑World Impacts Across Industries
Executives tasked with digital strategy and risk management are increasingly prioritizing authentication technologies. Examples of SMS verification’s real‑world impact include:
- Fintech platforms: Securing high‑value transactions with SMS codes
- eCommerce businesses: Verifying user identities during checkout to reduce fraudulent orders
- SaaS solutions: Using verification for password resets and administrative logins
These implementations reinforce security while bolstering customer confidence—a key metric in long‑term business success.
Implementing SMS Verification: Best Practices
While the benefits of SMS verification are significant, successful implementation requires thoughtful planning. A well‑executed strategy ensures that security does not come at the expense of user experience.
Identify Critical Interaction Points
Not all customer actions require the same level of verification. Common use cases include:
- New account registration
- High‑value transactions
- Password resets
- Changes to account security settings
By applying verification selectively, you reduce friction for users without compromising security.
Monitor Delivery and Response Metrics
To optimize performance, businesses should regularly evaluate:
- SMS delivery success rate
- Average time to verify
- Instances of incorrect or failed attempts
These analytics help identify potential issues with carriers or user experience bottlenecks that may require refinement.
Educate Your Users
Transparency about why and when verification is used builds trust. Simple on‑screen messaging like “Enter the verification code sent to your phone” helps guide users through secure steps.
Comparing Authentication Methods
Security teams often evaluate multiple authentication options before selecting the best fit for their business. Below is a comparison of common verification methods:
| Verification Method | Security Level | Ease of Use | Cost |
| SMS Verification | Medium | High | Low |
| Email Verification | Low | High | Very Low |
| App‑Based 2FA (Authenticator) | High | Medium | Medium |
| Biometric Verification | Very High | High | High |
SMS verification strikes a favorable balance between security, usability, and affordability—making it a strong option for businesses of varying sizes and technical maturity.
Addressing Challenges and Misconceptions
Although SMS is widely adopted, some executives express concern over potential limitations, such as SIM swapping or delayed messages. To address these issues proactively:
- Supplement SMS with contextual analytics that detect abnormal user behavior
- Educate users on safeguarding their mobile accounts
- Combine SMS with other verification layers where appropriate
These enhancements mitigate concerns while preserving the advantages of SMS verification.
Future Outlook: Trust as a Competitive Advantage
As digital ecosystems grow more complex, the role of verification tools in driving business success will only increase. Customers are more likely to engage with brands that prioritize both usability and security, and executives recognize that trust is a defining factor in long‑term growth. Emerging technologies like adaptive authentication, machine learning‑based risk assessments, and biometric validations will continue to evolve, but SMS verification remains a foundational pillar of secure customer interaction today.
From reducing fraud to reinforcing brand integrity, the strategic adoption of SMS verification aligns with broader goals of operational resilience and customer satisfaction. By integrating solutions that enhance both protection and user experience, business leaders can confidently advance their digital initiatives and strengthen the trust that underpins customer relationships.
Business
Options market eyes 2022 playbook for Iran war risks
The key concern: an inflation shock that lifts correlations within stock indexes and spurs an extended period of higher volatility.
The spike in oil and natural gas is rippling through supply chains, threatening to raise prices not just for gasoline but for a wide range of goods and services. That’s shifted traders’ attention away from single stocks, as macroeconomic worries begin to outweigh more granular themes such as artificial intelligence. This, in turn, has narrowed the volatility premium for individual shares versus the wider S&P 500 Index and shrunk trading volumes.
BloombergWhile the VIX has been more sensitive to drops in the S&P 500, the overall realized moves at the index level have remained muted compared with past crises. The volatility gauge hasn’t closed above 30 points this year, after spending two weeks above that level during the tariff turmoil of last April.
In 2022, the VIX surpassed 30 points periodically following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and averaged 25.64, more than 6 points above this year’s mean. The S&P 500 fell 19% that year as the Federal Reserve hiked rates multiple times.
“Investors are looking to the 2022 playbook for clues on how the current situation in Iran plays out for markets,” said UBS Group AG derivatives strategist Kieran Diamond. “The risk is an inflation shock, which could drive higher correlations within equity markets, and potentially switch the index volatility regime from fast VIX rises and reversals to one where the VIX floor rises and volatility is sustainably higher.”At the same time, the Cboe Skew Index of market stress has calmed in recent days, possibly because of the unwinding of hedges as investors became disillusioned with vanilla index puts, according to UBS strategists. The low level of realized volatility to the downside since the Middle East escalation may have also caused a general re-pricing of the skew curve.
BloombergWhile some discretionary traders have leaned into the short volatility trade via VIX put structures, the QIS space hasn’t seen a material shift in investor behavior, according to Michele Cancelli, global head of structuring for the multi-asset group at Citigroup Inc. and global head of QIS trading and structuring.
“Despite the elevated volatility risk premium in SPX, there’s little evidence of a rush into the short volatility trade,” he said. “We’re likely not far enough through the Iran-driven volatility window for investors to have conviction in monetizing it.”
Low realized volatility for the S&P 500 is at odds with the positioning of options dealers. Consensus has emerged among most derivatives strategists that dealers were short gamma heading into the quarterly expiry date. Realized volatility is notably higher intraday versus close-to-close, which may potentially be where dealer gamma is having the greater market impact.
Meanwhile, the broader market micro-structure does not appear to have changed all that much: There’s still significant call overwriting at the index level, as well as one-day-to-expiry condors being sold on an ongoing basis.
BloombergHowever, the bleeding out of index hedges — whether outright S&P 500 puts or trades like long VIX calls — doesn’t take away the risk-reward from such positions if the market does crack. Furthermore, some investors still see the value in leaning against popular trades such as volatility dispersion.
“We see better opportunities right now from being long index volatility and long intra-index correlation in terms of risk/reward,” said David Elms, head of diversified alternatives at Janus Henderson Group Plc. “Within that space, long correlation via reverse dispersion is interesting given the low levels of implied correlation and the floor to correlation being effectively zero.”
He noted that long convexity is also attractive given the carry cost is lower than historical norms, due to a flow imbalance.
BloombergAnother feature of markets has been intraday reversal, highlighting that while option dealers may be short gamma, they are not the key driver of prices in a macro headline-driven environment. The reversals on some level explain muted close-to-close realized volatility — suggesting a cohort of investors are still trading countertrend. On Thursday, the stock market was weak intraday but staged a big rebound into the close.
A flip of such price movement could see reversals giving way to genuine momentum, leading to an acceleration of stock gains as the end of the trading session nears.
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