Gold prices were steady on Tuesday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran peace talks, while rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December weighed on the metal.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was steady at $4,191.09 per ounce, as of 0053 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.2% to $4,208.40.

The ‌United States ⁠waived sanctions ⁠on Iran for 60 days from Monday after the first talks under a nascent peace deal, while officials reported a sustained lull in fighting in Lebanon under the agreement aimed at ending hostilities across the region.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iranian officials in Switzerland had laid a good foundation for a final ⁠peace deal, ‌although Iran denied that it had begun discussions of its nuclear programme.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his ⁠first testimony on monetary policy before Congress on July 14, according to a hearing notice published by the House Financial Services Committee.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that with the labour market stable, he is focused on figuring out whether too-high inflation will stay that way or if it will recede as the effect of high tariffs fades and if ‌the conflict in the Middle East gets resolved.
Traders now see an 89% chance of an interest rate hike in December, up from 61% ⁠before the Fed meeting last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. [FEDWATCH/]
Gold speculators raised net long positions by 9,258 contracts to 112,918 in the week to June 16. [CFTC/]
Spot silver fell 0.4% to $64.92 per ounce, platinum lost 0.4% to $1,672.90, while palladium was up 0.1% at $1,266.35.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0730 Germany S&P MFG, Services, Composite Flash PMI Jun

0800 EU S&P Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Jun

0830 UK Flash Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI Jun

1345 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMI Flash Jun

Asian stocks opened lower as oil edged higher, with investors continuing to watch developments in US-Iran peace talks.

MSCI Inc.’s gauge of regional shares fell as much as 0.2% in early trading. S&P 500 futures also edged lower after a slide in megacap tech stocks and rising bond yields dragged the benchmark down 0.4% Monday. SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Brent crude prices rose slightly to trade above $78 a barrel.

The US issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil on the international market, giving Tehran an economic lifeline as the two adversaries are poised to continue discussions to reach a permanent peace deal.

Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance described the first round of negotiations with Iran as “very, very good” and said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country. But officials from the Islamic Republic, who also cited progress, challenged that claim, saying Vance’s assertion was “false and does not reflect reality.”

While geopolitical developments are likely to remain a key source of volatility in the near term, shifts in investor confidence regarding the durability of the AI rally may also lead to bouts of market swings, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Chief Investment Office.

Expectations that an agreement will be reached, as well as the revival of the AI trade and solid corporate earnings, have fueled a 14% advance in the S&P 500 Index this quarter. However, that trails the 26% surge in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
Treasuries fell on Monday as trading resumed following a US public holiday, even as oil prices turned lower Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. Strategists cited Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish messaging last week as one of the reasons for the selling pressure.In currency markets, the Japanese yen lingered near its lowest level since 1986 as investors weighed the prospects for a lasting US-Iran peace deal and the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after rising 0.2% on Monday.

SpaceX plunged 16% after saying it’s selling investment-grade bonds in what’s expected to be a massive borrowing spree. Its bond sale is the latest in a wave of deals from companies driving the AI boom. Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc. and others have raised more than $300 billion of debt tied to AI since November across multiple credit markets. The rocket firm is seeking to raise at least $20 billion, Bloomberg reported.

“The issue that stands out the most is the idea that the hyperscalers continue to receive an extremely low return on investment on their colossal level of spending on AI,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “Another big concern surrounds the issue of ‘circular investments,’ where companies invest in each other, while also committing to buying each other’s products.”

Elsewhere, Andy Burnham appears set to become the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade after Keir Starmer laid out a timeline for his own departure and potential rivals backed a quick transition to the popular Manchester politician. While markets showed little reaction to the resignation, they were buoyed by reduced odds of a leadership contest that could have prolonged uncertainty.

SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the Elon Musk-led company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time, part of what’s expected to be a massive borrowing spree to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions.

The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company’s first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period. The company’s market capitalization now sits just above $2 trillion.

“Sellers are back in control. Anyone in the world who wanted to buy this has bought it already,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.

SpaceX’s first days of trading following its record $75 billion initial public offering were met with the type of volatility generally associated with new IPOs that have a low float — 4.2% of total shares outstanding were available to trade on day one — and high interest from retail investors. Still, even with Monday’s losses, SpaceX is the sixth-largest company in the world with shares about 15% higher than their $135 IPO price.

The rocket, satellite and AI conglomerate is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering, Bloomberg reported last week. SpaceX also inked a multibillion-dollar agreement to provide computing resources to Reflection AI, an AI startup, the company said Monday.

SpaceX’s embrace of artificial intelligence with the acquisition of Musk’s xAI in February meant investors closely watched the listing ahead of IPO prospects of competitors Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, both of which plan to go public as soon as this year with valuations expected to be around $1 trillion.
Retail trading in SpaceX, officially named Space Exploration Technologies Corp., was the strongest of any IPO in recent history, with the cohort buying net $405 million in the first five sessions according to Vanda Research. Retail investors bought more SpaceX last week than buying across all Magnificent Seven stocks combined, the data showed. On Monday, retail traders were still net buyers of SpaceX, but inflows were below last week’s levels, Vanda data showed. The stock was initiated with a recommendation of sector weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets, the first hold-equivalent rating according to data tracked by Bloomberg. Analysts led by Michael Leshock wrote that SpaceX is set to remain the leader in space-launch and adjacent verticals, but much of the long-term value is already captured in the stock price.

SpaceX “possesses significant disruptive growth avenues, though we believe this is reflected in current valuation and risk/reward appears balanced, in our view,” he wrote.

His company is one of several that makes sweat-analysing devices. In Epicore Biosystems’ case, that includes single-use sticky patches and sleeve-like wearables, which track the flow rate of sweat as it emerges from your skin, the sweat’s sodium (salt) content, and skin temperature, among other metrics.