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Thailand’s economy closed 2025 on a surprisingly strong note, with GDP expanding 2.5% year-on-year in Q4, well above forecasts of 1.3% and outpacing the previous quarter’s 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, growth reached 1.9%, nearly triple the expected pace.

Key Takeaways

• Q4 2025 GDP: Expanded 2.5% year-on-year, stronger than forecasts and above Q3’s 1.2%.
• Quarterly Growth: Rose 1.9% from Q3, exceeding the highest Bloomberg survey estimate of 1.9%.
• Full-Year 2025: Economy grew 2.4% overall.
• 2026 Outlook: The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) upgraded projections, expecting growth between 1.5%–2.5%, driven by exports and tourism recovery.

For the full year, GDP rose 2.4%, driven by a rebound in exports, a surge in tourism arrivals, and targeted government stimulus measures. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has now set its 2026 growth outlook at 1.5%–2.5%, citing continued recovery in external demand and tourism as key drivers.

The stronger-than-expected performance comes at a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who recently secured a coalition deal. The economic momentum provides his administration with political capital as it pledges to stabilize the economy and ease cost-of-living pressures.

Despite the upbeat figures, Thailand’s growth remains modest compared to regional peers. Malaysia and Singapore grew at more than double Thailand’s pace in 2025, while Vietnam expanded nearly four times faster, underscoring the competitiveness challenges ahead.

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UK Management College has big plans as it opens new Salford campus

A college that’s just opened a new campus in Salford and has bases across the country is celebrating its tenth anniversary – and now hopes to become a university in its own right. UK Management College was founded in 2016 by husband and wife Zahidul and Abida Islam to focus on offering education opportunities to members of socially disadvantaged or underrepresented groups, and to older people looking to return to education.

From just a handful of students in 2016, the college has grown to serve 7,000 learners at three sites in Greater Manchester and campuses in Sunderland, Newcastle and Derby. Its offering has gone beyond management courses and it now offers degrees, in partnership with other universities, in subjects including fashion and events management.

Now, its provost Professor Jason Powell says, the college has started planning to become a university in its own right and to be able to offer its own degrees. He said: “Last year, we created what’s called the Transforming Lives Strategic Plan 2025 to 2030. That was written in consultation with students, staff and external stakeholders, not by myself as the provost of the institution.

“And part of that, in terms of the strategic direction of the college, is that we do aspire to be a university in our own right with our own degree-awarding powers. That’s really important and that obviously gives more autonomy for the future.”

Becoming a university is a key long-term goal for UKMC’s management team, which it will work on to 2030 and beyond. Prof Powell said: “That’s important as a marker and shows our ambition and credibility and legitimacy. I’ve worked in higher education for years now with Russell Group universities, post-92 universities, as well as the independent sector. Some of my proudest moments have come from UK Management College.

“One of the fantastic insights that I get from working here is about intergenerational justice and social justice for those groups who traditionally have been denied access to university level education.”

UKMC will continue working with its current university partners, including Canterbury Christ Church University, Arts University Bournemouth, and the University of Wolverhampton.

Prof Powell said: “We very much value the university partnerships that we have and may have in the future.” He added: “These partnerships are not just created overnight, they’re cultivated carefully and it shows us as a quality beacon of excellence in order to attract leading universities to deliver their programmes in the heart of Greater Manchester and across the UK.”

Those degree courses were developed through consulting with local communities as UKMC continued to grow. Prof Powell said: “From 2016 onwards, the college had a number of different types of diploma courses. And in 2023 we decided to actively listen to the communities by which we serve – listening to community-based organisations as well as, say for example, faith based organisations, Jobcentre plus, the NHS – to actually find out what type of programmes were needed.

“What they told us was we needed more HE-orientated programmes to be put in place. The problem that we found was that there were many potential learners who were denied access to education in the university sector. So to that end, we decided to cultivate a number of strategic partnerships with universities in order to provide opportunities for those socially disadvantaged students who may have been out of the education system for a long time, but who wanted that opportunity.”

Prof Powell works closely with founder Zahidul Islam on their vision for the college. He said: “Zahidul is the CEO of UK Management College, and he’s one of the most passionate entrepreneurs that I’ve ever met, and is very student driven. Its fundamental value from the beginning was about active listening to the communities which we serve.

“And that was about looking at the most socially disadvantaged and most underrepresented groups in education who should be given opportunity. We saw it as a human right, a fundamental human right, that no one should be denied access to education irrespective of social identity or social division.

“And we’re a very strong widening participation college. One of the strong pillars and foundations of the college for students has been about enhanced student support.. from their first interaction with the college to plans for when they graduate.”

That mission, Prof Powell says, led the college to open its campuses in the North East and the East Midlands. “Social disadvantage doesn’t just materialise in Greater Manchester, it’s replicated across the UK,” he said. “And we’ve found through very careful demographic analysis in those areas many for example mature students who were denied again access to mainstream education. So to meet a fundamental need in their areas, we cultivated campuses.

“We engaged in the process of active listening. We’re a member of the Chambers of Commerce in these different regions, so we listen to them on the courses that should be cultivated, but for standardisation the student experience is exactly the same as what it would be in Greater Manchester, Derby, Newcastle and Sunderland.”

The Salford campus, 15 minutes or so from MediaCity, opened in January. Prof Powell said: “Salford is an emerging economy and obviously you’ve got MediaCity about a mile away and it’s a hot spot for business, it’s a hot spot of opportunities for learners in order to develop their skills.”

The college also opens itself up to the public and to the private sector through its events and open days, where potential employers and students can find out more about what it has to offer. The next such event is the Careers Fair on Tuesday, February 24, which features exhibitors including NHS England, Manchester City Council, Salford City Council, KPMG, Wellway Rehab Solutions, and Kids Planet Salford.

Olympic medallist Chelsie Giles MBE will join as a guest speaker, while activities designed to help students find work will include mock interviews, CV building workshops and career guidance sessions.

Prof Powell said: “Today’s student is tomorrow’s stakeholder. The opportunities to learn on that day will be immense and the links and the contacts that they’ll cultivate will help them, not just in terms of their careers and their employability, which we have a very strong focus on here, but in terms of their development and growth.”

He added: “We have further other events coming as well, and we just do this consistently, so we want people, students, to come in to see our facilities, speak to our staff, see what courses we do, and come here and get excited about what they can do for the future.”

• UKMC’s next Careers Fair will be held on Tuesday, February 24, at the college’s Salford campus at 17 Carolina Way from 10am to 4pm. For information, visit https://ukmc.ac.uk/event-details/ukmc-careers-fair-2026

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Mumbai: Revised central bank guidelines on capital market exposures may prompt equity brokers to increase their funding reliance on the bond market and commercial papers (CP), and that could weigh on sector profitability, according to research reports.

The new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rules on bank funding to capital market intermediaries state that all borrowing will now require 100% collateral – including at least 50% in cash for many facilities – making the bank channel uneconomical for most intermediaries.

The RBI norms aim to curb leveraged trading in equity and commodity markets and reduce systemic risk for banks.

Earlier, brokers were not required to fully cover the loan, and partial security, promoter guarantees and other flexible arrangements were widely used.
The new guidelines, effective April 1, 2026, mandate 100% collateral with strict haircut and cash-margin requirements. Haircuts on equity collateral are raised to at least 40%, up from roughly 25% earlier.

IIFL Capital expects lower speculative and leveraged volumes in cash and derivatives markets once the rules take effect, particularly in the near term as intermediaries adjust balance sheets and liquidity.
The tightened framework restricts banks’ ability to fund leveraged activity across equity and derivatives markets, raising capital requirements for brokers and proprietary trading firms. Cost Inflation
Analysts said the new rules will increase funding costs, compress margins and lower returns on equity, with proprietary traders – who account for 30-50% of market volumes – facing the steepest impact as leverage becomes more expensive.

“We believe credit facilities with 100% (or higher) collateral will make the bank channel unsuitable for brokers, and they will only use it for short-term mismatches,” JM Financial Institutional Securities said in a report.

Brokerages that relied heavily on bank lines for margin trading facilities (MTF) or working capital will face the most significant shift, analysts said.

According to JM Financial, Angel One – which raised half of its total funding of ₹3,400 crore in FY25 – will now have to depend more on CPs, non-convertible debentures (NCDs) and NBFC borrowing.

Groww, which is largely equity-funded, is also expected to tap the market for borrowings as its MTF book expands rapidly.

Under the new framework, RBI has restricted banks from providing finance for proprietary trading or investment positions of capital market intermediaries (CMIs).

“These measures will directly affect proprietary traders (props) and brokers by increasing capital requirements, compressing margins, and lowering ROE. Market liquidity may also be impacted, as prop traders contribute 30-50% of cash and derivatives volumes,” Devesh Agarwal, senior VP, IIFL Capital, said in a note.

Analysts also said brokers will face tighter liquidity because banks must apply minimum haircuts of 40% on equity collateral, 25% on ETFs/REITs/InvITs, and 15-40% on debt securities, depending on rating. These high haircuts significantly reduce usable collateral value, raise effective funding costs and push intermediaries toward bond markets for more flexible borrowing structures.

ET Intelligence Group: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) draft norms aimed at curbing mis-selling of financial products could weigh more heavily on the private sector banks given their higher reliance on insurance income. According to the data collated by ETIG from annual reports, the share of insurance income in the other income for the top five private sector banks rose to 10% in FY25 from 8.2% in FY19 at the aggregate level. It was at 7.5% in FY24. For the top five public sector (PSU) banks, it remained under 4% during the period under observation. Among the 10 sample banks, ICICI Bank reported the sharpest decline of 13.9 percentage points in the share to 1.6% between FY19 and FY25. It had the lowest share of insurance income in the sample amid its focus on improving efficiency of the core banking operations. For other private banks, the share was between 6% and 16% while PSU banks’ share was 2-4.5% in FY25.

Income from insurance products sold by the 10 sample banks increased two-and-a-half times to ₹16,747 crore in FY25 from ₹6,381 crore in FY19. It increased by 31% year-on-year from ₹12,783 crore in FY24.

“The RBI has proposed that obtaining customer consent is not enough, and that banks must additionally ensure the product is appropriate and suitable for the customer. This will make banks cautious in selling third party products like mutual funds and insurance policies,” a head of retail banking of a private bank told ET.

RBI issued draft norms on February 11 to curb the mis-selling of financial products. The draft rules propose that if mis-selling is established, banks must refund the entire amount paid by the customer and provide additional compensation for any financial loss.
Banks have long linked employee incentives and sales targets to the sale of third-party products such as insurance policies, mutual funds and other financial instruments to increase fee income. Insurance and mutual fund companies also depend on banks for distribution. This may result in sales of unsuitable or unwanted products.

Bancassurance is a well-established model in the financial sector in which banks and insurance companies join hands to sell insurance products to customers.

With the RBI signalling a pause after delivering a cumulative 125 bps rate cut and maintaining a status quo stance in its latest policy, the easy money phase now appears to be behind us.

Yet, even as further rate cuts look unlikely, elevated bond yields and widened term spreads are creating selective tactical opportunities—particularly at the longer end of the curve.

Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Vikas Garg, Head – Fixed Income at Invesco Mutual Fund, explains why real yields remain compelling despite record borrowing, how supply dynamics are shaping the yield curve, and what signals investors should watch for before taking exposure to long-duration funds.

He also outlines where corporate bonds, sovereigns and short-duration strategies fit into portfolios in the current macro environment. Edited Excerpts –
Q) Did the RBI policy outcome at this point largely meet expectations post Budget?

A) The MPC delivered a well-balanced policy, maintaining the status quo on both rates and stance, broadly in line with market expectations.
The RBI under Governor Malhotra has continued to emphasize action over guidance, having already delivered a cumulative 125 bps rate cut alongside a series of pre-emptive liquidity measures to ensure adequate system liquidity.Importantly, this policy came against the backdrop of clarity on two key variables fiscal policy and the India-US trade framework.

While the Governor reiterated a pre-emptive approach to liquidity management, the absence of specific announcements on additional liquidity measures disappointed the market.

Q) Do you think India is entering a structurally stronger phase compared to the past few years?

A) Yes, India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major economy, well contained inflation, sound credit environment and a favorable demographic profile. This is further supported by credible fiscal and monetary policymaking, along with political stability.

Together, these factors reinforce confidence that the current strong macroeconomic backdrop is not cyclical alone, but has the potential to be sustained.

Even as financial markets are largely driven by domestic factors, global volatility can also impact the domestic markets especially when INR comes under pressure.

Q) If growth accelerates in the second half, could rising inflation alter the RBI’s rate trajectory?

A) While India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the coming financial year, the growth trajectory is still broadly aligned with potential growth and therefore not inherently inflationary.

Headline inflation this year has been at record lows, even with elevated prices of precious metals, while core inflation excluding these components remains well below the RBI’s 4% target.

Additionally, the forthcoming revision of the CPI basket where food weights are expected to decline could further moderate volatility.

Against this backdrop, inflation does not appear to be at levels that would cause near-term discomfort for the RBI. The key risk to this view remains the monsoon, given the inflation’s sensitivity to agricultural outcomes.

Q) How meaningful could potential inclusion in Bloomberg bond indices be for Indian bonds?

A) Such inclusion would be very meaningful. FY27 will see a record high gross supply of sovereign and SDL securities which will test the market appetite, especially in the backdrop of no more rate cuts going forward.

With higher gross and net borrowing outlined in the upcoming fiscal year’s Budget, the entry of a large and stable new investor base through index inclusion would provide meaningful relief to the yield curve.

Q) Given lower inflation and strong growth, what duration strategy would you recommend for investors today?

A) At present, the yield curve appears stretched, and concerns around demand–supply dynamics persist. As a result, the curve may remain steep, particularly with continued heavy supply from both the Centre and states leading to some duration fatigue.

Current 10 yr G-Sec yield at ~6.75% gives a ~150 bps term spread over the 5.25% repo rate, such spreads were last seen during the past rate hike cycle.

With the current inflation running low at ~2% for FY26, the real yields at more than 4.75% are quite elevated, making risk-reward favorable. Even the short end yields are elevated on supply concerns.

Market sentiments have turned positive after the announcement of US-India trade agreement and we expect investor appetite to pick up at these high yields. Also, as RBI conducts more OMOs and possibly G-Sec switch operations, it will help in addressing the huge fiscal supply concerns to an extent.

Considering the risk-reward dynamics, we believe Ultra Short, Money Market and Low Duration funds provide limited volatility and high accrual.

At the same time, actively managed short-term funds and corporate bond funds with balanced exposure towards 2-4 yr corporate bonds and 5-10 yr G-Secs provide suitable opportunities for core allocation in CY2026.

Q) Is there scope for a tactical entry into long-bond investing this year, and what would signal such an opportunity?

A) Yes, as we move into the next fiscal year, there could be selective tactical opportunities at the longer end of the curve.

While the government has announced a sizeable borrowing program, it has also built buffers into the fiscal framework. Upside surprises such as higher-than-expected RBI dividends, stronger GST collections, or increased mobilization through NSSF could create windows for tactical long-duration exposure during the year.

Even though with a risk of higher volatility, one can look at Gilt funds as a tactical call given that the term spreads have jumped sharply higher.

Q) How should retail investors approach long-duration funds in the current environment?

A) Retail investors should view long-duration funds primarily as a core allocation towards the buy and hold like strategy of risk-free assets as these funds can be extremely volatile depending upon the market conditions.

At times, such long-duration funds can also be used for tactical calls to benefit from the capital gain opportunities.

At the current juncture, term spread has widened sharply due to fiscal supply overhang and one can look at long-duration funds as a tactical exposure as the term spread may compress over next few months if demand from long investors like PFs, insurance companies etc picks up towards the FY end.

Q) Would you prefer sovereign bonds, SDLs, or corporate bonds at this stage?

A) At current valuations, corporate bonds in 1 – 4 yr tenor space appear attractive, with spreads over G-Sec offering a healthy accrual opportunity.

That said, sovereign bonds continue to play an important role as a potential source of capital gains, given their sensitivity to policy and macro developments.

With several negatives already priced in and yields near the upper end of the expected range, sovereigns especially in 5-10 yr space do offer some capital appreciation potential.

Q) How do higher borrowing numbers influence your outlook for the 10-year G-sec?

A) Higher borrowing impacts both the pricing and the shape of the yield curve. We expect the curve to remain relatively steep, with the longer end experiencing continued duration fatigue, while the shorter end stays supported by the RBI’s commitment to maintaining adequate liquidity in the system.

In the current environment, we see the 10-year G-sec trading in a range of 6.65% to 6.80%

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)