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No more rate cuts, but high yields create tactical opportunities in long bonds, says Vikas Garg

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No more rate cuts, but high yields create tactical opportunities in long bonds, says Vikas Garg
With the RBI signalling a pause after delivering a cumulative 125 bps rate cut and maintaining a status quo stance in its latest policy, the easy money phase now appears to be behind us.

Yet, even as further rate cuts look unlikely, elevated bond yields and widened term spreads are creating selective tactical opportunities—particularly at the longer end of the curve.

Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Vikas Garg, Head – Fixed Income at Invesco Mutual Fund, explains why real yields remain compelling despite record borrowing, how supply dynamics are shaping the yield curve, and what signals investors should watch for before taking exposure to long-duration funds.

Unrated debt on the rise as investors seek higher yields
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Unrated and lesser-known issuers are increasingly tapping the debt capital market, raising ₹1.5 lakh crore in FY26, driven by investor appetite for higher yields. These issuers prefer unrated structures to bypass procedural delays and regulatory disclosures, with private credit funds and AIFs emerging as key buyers.


He also outlines where corporate bonds, sovereigns and short-duration strategies fit into portfolios in the current macro environment. Edited Excerpts –
Q) Did the RBI policy outcome at this point largely meet expectations post Budget?


A) The MPC delivered a well-balanced policy, maintaining the status quo on both rates and stance, broadly in line with market expectations.
The RBI under Governor Malhotra has continued to emphasize action over guidance, having already delivered a cumulative 125 bps rate cut alongside a series of pre-emptive liquidity measures to ensure adequate system liquidity.Importantly, this policy came against the backdrop of clarity on two key variables fiscal policy and the India-US trade framework.

While the Governor reiterated a pre-emptive approach to liquidity management, the absence of specific announcements on additional liquidity measures disappointed the market.

Q) Do you think India is entering a structurally stronger phase compared to the past few years?

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A) Yes, India continues to stand out as the fastest-growing major economy, well contained inflation, sound credit environment and a favorable demographic profile. This is further supported by credible fiscal and monetary policymaking, along with political stability.

Together, these factors reinforce confidence that the current strong macroeconomic backdrop is not cyclical alone, but has the potential to be sustained.

Even as financial markets are largely driven by domestic factors, global volatility can also impact the domestic markets especially when INR comes under pressure.

Q) If growth accelerates in the second half, could rising inflation alter the RBI’s rate trajectory?

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A) While India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the coming financial year, the growth trajectory is still broadly aligned with potential growth and therefore not inherently inflationary.

Headline inflation this year has been at record lows, even with elevated prices of precious metals, while core inflation excluding these components remains well below the RBI’s 4% target.

Additionally, the forthcoming revision of the CPI basket where food weights are expected to decline could further moderate volatility.

Against this backdrop, inflation does not appear to be at levels that would cause near-term discomfort for the RBI. The key risk to this view remains the monsoon, given the inflation’s sensitivity to agricultural outcomes.

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Q) How meaningful could potential inclusion in Bloomberg bond indices be for Indian bonds?

A) Such inclusion would be very meaningful. FY27 will see a record high gross supply of sovereign and SDL securities which will test the market appetite, especially in the backdrop of no more rate cuts going forward.

With higher gross and net borrowing outlined in the upcoming fiscal year’s Budget, the entry of a large and stable new investor base through index inclusion would provide meaningful relief to the yield curve.

Q) Given lower inflation and strong growth, what duration strategy would you recommend for investors today?

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A) At present, the yield curve appears stretched, and concerns around demand–supply dynamics persist. As a result, the curve may remain steep, particularly with continued heavy supply from both the Centre and states leading to some duration fatigue.

Current 10 yr G-Sec yield at ~6.75% gives a ~150 bps term spread over the 5.25% repo rate, such spreads were last seen during the past rate hike cycle.

With the current inflation running low at ~2% for FY26, the real yields at more than 4.75% are quite elevated, making risk-reward favorable. Even the short end yields are elevated on supply concerns.

Market sentiments have turned positive after the announcement of US-India trade agreement and we expect investor appetite to pick up at these high yields. Also, as RBI conducts more OMOs and possibly G-Sec switch operations, it will help in addressing the huge fiscal supply concerns to an extent.

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Considering the risk-reward dynamics, we believe Ultra Short, Money Market and Low Duration funds provide limited volatility and high accrual.

At the same time, actively managed short-term funds and corporate bond funds with balanced exposure towards 2-4 yr corporate bonds and 5-10 yr G-Secs provide suitable opportunities for core allocation in CY2026.

Q) Is there scope for a tactical entry into long-bond investing this year, and what would signal such an opportunity?

A) Yes, as we move into the next fiscal year, there could be selective tactical opportunities at the longer end of the curve.

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While the government has announced a sizeable borrowing program, it has also built buffers into the fiscal framework. Upside surprises such as higher-than-expected RBI dividends, stronger GST collections, or increased mobilization through NSSF could create windows for tactical long-duration exposure during the year.

Even though with a risk of higher volatility, one can look at Gilt funds as a tactical call given that the term spreads have jumped sharply higher.

Q) How should retail investors approach long-duration funds in the current environment?

A) Retail investors should view long-duration funds primarily as a core allocation towards the buy and hold like strategy of risk-free assets as these funds can be extremely volatile depending upon the market conditions.

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At times, such long-duration funds can also be used for tactical calls to benefit from the capital gain opportunities.

At the current juncture, term spread has widened sharply due to fiscal supply overhang and one can look at long-duration funds as a tactical exposure as the term spread may compress over next few months if demand from long investors like PFs, insurance companies etc picks up towards the FY end.

Q) Would you prefer sovereign bonds, SDLs, or corporate bonds at this stage?

A) At current valuations, corporate bonds in 1 – 4 yr tenor space appear attractive, with spreads over G-Sec offering a healthy accrual opportunity.

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That said, sovereign bonds continue to play an important role as a potential source of capital gains, given their sensitivity to policy and macro developments.

With several negatives already priced in and yields near the upper end of the expected range, sovereigns especially in 5-10 yr space do offer some capital appreciation potential.

Q) How do higher borrowing numbers influence your outlook for the 10-year G-sec?

A) Higher borrowing impacts both the pricing and the shape of the yield curve. We expect the curve to remain relatively steep, with the longer end experiencing continued duration fatigue, while the shorter end stays supported by the RBI’s commitment to maintaining adequate liquidity in the system.

In the current environment, we see the 10-year G-sec trading in a range of 6.65% to 6.80%

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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All Services Fully Operational After Brief Mail Outage

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iCloud

iCloud is fully operational as of Monday, April 6, 2026, with no widespread outages reported across Apple’s suite of cloud services, according to the company’s official System Status page and third-party monitoring sites.

iCloud
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Apple confirmed that all iCloud-related services — including iCloud Mail, iCloud Drive, Photos, Notes, Contacts, Calendar, Backup, Find My and Keychain — are listed as “Available.” A brief disruption to iCloud Mail that affected some users earlier Monday from approximately 2:19 p.m. to 4:20 p.m. UTC has been resolved, with the status page last updated at 5:07 p.m. UTC showing normal operations across the board.

The brief mail outage, which lasted roughly two hours, prompted scattered user complaints on social media and monitoring platforms but did not impact the majority of iCloud features. Apple has not issued a detailed postmortem, but such short-lived incidents are common in large-scale cloud infrastructure and are typically caused by temporary server load, maintenance or routing issues rather than systemic failure.

Downdetector and similar outage trackers showed no significant spike in reports Monday evening, with user-submitted issues remaining at baseline levels. Earlier searches for “iCloud down” turned up only historical references to a larger outage in February 2026 that affected Find My, Photos and other services for several hours before full restoration.

For millions of iPhone, iPad and Mac users who rely on iCloud for photo syncing, document storage, email and device backups, the current all-clear status provides reassurance. iCloud, launched in 2011, serves as Apple’s backbone for seamless cross-device experiences, storing more than 1 billion users’ data worldwide and powering features like iCloud Private Relay, end-to-end encrypted backups and real-time collaboration in apps such as Pages, Numbers and Keynote.

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Apple’s System Status dashboard, updated multiple times daily, remains the most authoritative source for real-time information. Users experiencing personal issues despite the official “Available” status are advised to try standard troubleshooting: signing out and back into iCloud, restarting devices, checking internet connectivity or updating to the latest iOS, iPadOS or macOS versions. In rare cases, clearing Safari cache or toggling iCloud services individually in Settings can resolve localized glitches.

The Monday mail incident follows a pattern of occasional, short-duration disruptions that Apple has managed efficiently in recent years. In February 2026, a more noticeable outage temporarily slowed Find My and Photos syncing for some users before being fixed within hours. Apple has invested heavily in expanding its data-center footprint and improving redundancy, including new facilities in Europe and Asia, to minimize future downtime.

Industry analysts note that iCloud’s reliability has improved markedly since its early days, when longer outages were more frequent. Today, the service boasts industry-leading uptime percentages, though critics occasionally point to Apple’s closed ecosystem and limited transparency during incidents. When problems do arise, Apple typically posts updates on its status page rather than issuing public statements unless the outage is widespread.

For business users and enterprises enrolled in Apple Business Essentials or iCloud+, the current operational status is particularly important. Features such as Advanced Data Protection, custom email domains and expanded storage tiers continue without interruption. Families using Family Sharing for shared photo libraries and storage plans also face no reported problems Monday.

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Social media reaction to the brief mail glitch was muted compared with past outages. A handful of users posted screenshots of delayed email delivery or sync errors earlier in the day, but complaints tapered off after the 4:20 p.m. UTC resolution. Hashtags such as #iCloudDown saw minimal traction, with most trending conversation shifting back to routine Apple product discussions.

Experts recommend that users with critical data enable iCloud Backup and two-factor authentication as standard practice. Apple’s end-to-end encryption for many services, including Health data and Messages in iCloud, adds an extra layer of security even during minor service blips.

Looking ahead, Apple is expected to continue rolling out enhancements to iCloud as part of its broader AI and privacy initiatives. Rumors of deeper integration with Apple Intelligence features could increase reliance on cloud processing, making uptime even more critical in the coming months.

In the meantime, the message from Apple on April 6 is clear: iCloud is running normally. Anyone still encountering difficulties is encouraged to contact Apple Support directly or use the Get Support section on apple.com, where automated diagnostics can often pinpoint device-specific problems rather than service-wide ones.

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The brief nature of Monday’s mail issue underscores how rare significant iCloud disruptions have become. With billions of daily transactions processed across its global network, Apple’s infrastructure has proven resilient, bouncing back quickly from the handful of incidents reported in 2026 so far.

For the average user checking their iPhone or Mac right now, photos are syncing, emails are delivering and Find My is locating devices without issue. That reliability remains one of iCloud’s strongest selling points in a competitive cloud storage market that includes Google One, Microsoft OneDrive and Dropbox.

As evening approaches on April 6, the status page continues to show green across the board. Apple will likely monitor the situation overnight, but no further incidents are anticipated based on current indicators.

Users who rely on iCloud for everything from family photo albums to work documents can breathe easy: the service is up and running smoothly after its short Monday hiccup. Regular status checks via the official Apple page or trusted monitoring tools remain the best way to stay informed during any future events.

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Keiko Fujimori leads Peru’s presidential polls a week before election

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Keiko Fujimori leads Peru’s presidential polls a week before election

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Intel's Turnaround Gains Momentum

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Payrolls Pacify Stagflation Scare | Seeking Alpha

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Payrolls Pacify Stagflation Scare | Seeking Alpha

This article was written by

Alex Pettee is President and Director of Research and ETFs at Hoya Capital. Hoya manages institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities.Alex leads the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital. The service features a team of analysts focusing on real income-producing asset classes that offer the opportunity for reliable income, diversification, and inflation hedging. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RIET, HOMZ, IRET, ALL HOLDINGS IN THE IREIT+HOYA PORTFOLIOS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations (“Hoya Capital”) is an affiliate of Hoya Capital Real Estate, a registered investment advisory firm based in Rowayton, Connecticut, that provides investment advisory services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions. Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations provides non-advisory services including market commentary, research, and index administration focused on publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. This published commentary is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site nor any commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. This commentary is impersonal and should not be considered a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific individual, nor should it be viewed as a solicitation or offer for any advisory service offered by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal adviser regarding your individual circumstances before investing. The views and opinions in all published commentary are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Any market data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. There is no guarantee that any outlook made in this commentary will be realized. Readers should understand that investing involves risk, and loss of principal is possible. Investments in real estate companies and/or housing industry companies involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs. The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses, or taxes. Hoya Capital Real Estate and Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations have no business relationship with any company discussed or mentioned and never receive compensation from any company discussed or mentioned. Hoya Capital Real Estate, its affiliates, and/or its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in securities or funds discussed on this website and in our published commentary. A complete list of holdings and additional important disclosures is available at www.HoyaCapital.com.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Don't Put All Your REIT Eggs In One Basket

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Quantum computers: Can Europe make the leap first?

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British royals gather for Easter service, with Andrew and his family absent

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Zelenskiy in Syria to discuss security cooperation with Sharaa

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Zelenskiy in Syria to discuss security cooperation with Sharaa


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(VIDEO) Chelsea Thrash Port Vale 7-0 to Reach FA Cup Semi-Finals

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Nicolas Jackson celebrates his goal for Chelsea against Brentford in the Premier League

LONDON — Chelsea cruised into the Emirates FA Cup semi-finals with a ruthless 7-0 demolition of League One side Port Vale at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, easing the pressure on manager Liam Rosenior after a difficult week for the Club World Cup champions.

Seven different Chelsea players found the net as the Blues produced their most emphatic performance of the 2025-26 season, ending Port Vale’s memorable cup run in clinical fashion. The result sends Chelsea to a record 27th FA Cup semi-final appearance, where they will discover their opponent in Sunday’s draw at the London Stadium.

Jorrel Hato opened the scoring inside two minutes with a composed finish, setting the tone for an afternoon of total dominance. João Pedro added a second in the 25th minute, before an own goal from Port Vale defender Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel made it 3-0 just before halftime.

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Nicolas Jackson celebrates his goal for Chelsea against Brentford in the Premier League
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The second half became a goal procession. Tosin Adarabioyo headed home in the 57th minute, Andrey Santos nodded in a sixth from close range in the 69th, teenage sensation Estêvão Willian struck in the 82nd, and Alejandro Garnacho converted a stoppage-time penalty he had earned himself to complete the rout.

Rosenior, whose position had come under scrutiny following a turbulent period, opted for a strong starting lineup that included several key first-team players. The no-risk approach paid dividends as Chelsea controlled possession and created chance after chance against a spirited but outclassed Port Vale side.

“It was important we responded in the right way today,” Rosenior said afterward. “The players showed the right attitude and quality. We wanted to send a message, and I think we did that. Now we focus on the semi-final and pushing for more success this season.”

Port Vale, who had enjoyed a fairy-tale run to the quarter-finals — their best since 1954 — arrived at Stamford Bridge as heavy underdogs. Manager Darren Moore’s side defended bravely in the opening stages but were undone by Chelsea’s pace, movement and clinical finishing. The League One outfit created few clear opportunities and were forced to chase the game after falling behind early.

Highlights packages already circulating online captured the barrage: Hato’s quick opener, Pedro’s smart finish, the own goal that deflated the visitors, and the second-half flurry that turned the contest into a training exercise. Estêvão, in particular, impressed with his dribbling and vision, earning praise from Rosenior who declared there is “no ceiling” for the Brazilian teenager.

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The victory comes at a welcome time for Chelsea, who have navigated inconsistency in the Premier League and faced questions over squad harmony and results. Reaching the semi-finals provides a timely boost and keeps alive hopes of silverware in a season that has delivered the Club World Cup but mixed domestic fortunes.

Chelsea’s path to the last four has been relatively kind in terms of opposition, but the manner of Saturday’s win will encourage supporters. The Blues fielded a blend of experience and youth, with academy graduates and recent signings all contributing to the scoreline. The seven-goal haul marked their biggest win of the campaign and their largest margin in the FA Cup for several years.

Port Vale’s players left the pitch to warm applause from the traveling fans, who appreciated the club’s giant-killing efforts earlier in the competition. Moore acknowledged the gulf in class but took pride in his team’s journey.

“We knew it would be tough, but the lads gave everything,” Moore said. “Chelsea were ruthless. We’ve had a great cup run and created some special memories. Now we return to League One with our heads held high.”

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The semi-final draw on Sunday will determine Chelsea’s next opponent, with Manchester City, Southampton and the winner of West Ham United versus Leeds United also in the hat. Chelsea hold ball number 2. The semi-finals are scheduled for the weekend of April 25-26 at Wembley Stadium.

Rosenior’s side will hope the confidence gained from the 7-0 thrashing translates into improved Premier League form. With several key players returning from injury or international duty, the manager believes the squad is building momentum at the right time.

For Estêvão and Garnacho, the afternoon offered further evidence of their growing influence. Garnacho’s late penalty capped an impressive display, while Estêvão’s goal and assist underlined why many view him as one of Chelsea’s brightest prospects.

The match also highlighted Chelsea’s squad depth. Players who have rotated in recent weeks seized the opportunity to impress, with clean finishing and high pressing disrupting Port Vale from the outset. The home crowd, which filled Stamford Bridge, responded with sustained applause as the goals flowed.

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Analysts noted the tactical discipline shown by Chelsea, who pressed high and transitioned quickly. Port Vale, while organized, lacked the quality to match the Premier League side’s intensity over 90 minutes.

As the FA Cup progresses toward its climax, Chelsea join Manchester City as strong favorites for the trophy. The Blues last lifted the FA Cup in 2018 and will be determined to end their wait for domestic silverware.

Port Vale’s elimination ends a memorable chapter for the Staffordshire club. Their run included several impressive victories against higher-ranked teams, providing moments of joy for supporters and boosting the club’s profile.

With the semi-final draw looming, excitement is building around English football’s oldest competition. Chelsea’s emphatic quarter-final victory ensures they remain firmly in contention for a place at Wembley in May.

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For Rosenior and his players, the focus now shifts to maintaining standards across all competitions. Saturday’s result offers a platform for a strong finish to the season and a potential trophy lift that could define the campaign.

As highlights continue to circulate and fans debate standout performers, one thing is clear: Chelsea delivered a statement performance when it mattered most, sweeping aside Port Vale to march confidently into the FA Cup semi-finals.

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Russia says US should abandon ’language of ultimatums’ on Iran

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