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NSE IPO to value exchange at Rs 5 lakh crore? 2 scenarios every investor should watch

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NSE IPO to value exchange at Rs 5 lakh crore? 2 scenarios every investor should watch
NSE’s proposed IPO is poised to value India’s largest stock exchange at around Rs 5 lakh crore, crystallising a behemoth franchise into a listed play on the country’s capital-market deepening story while throwing up two critical scenarios that investors must track closely.

National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE) has filed its DRHP for an IPO structured entirely as an Offer for Sale (OFS), with up to 148.9 million equity shares, around 6% of outstanding equity, being offloaded by existing shareholders. Key sellers include State Bank of India, MS Strategic (Mauritius), Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Aranda Investments (Mauritius) and Bank of Baroda, signalling a broad-based monetisation by marquee financial institutions.

Centrum Institutional Research characterises NSE as a behemoth, underlining its dominant position with about 93% market share in cash equities, nearly 100% in equity futures and roughly 72% in equity index options turnover in FY26, alongside near-monopolistic shares in currency derivatives and a commanding presence in corporate bonds clearing.

NSE valuation math

Assuming a market capitalisation of Rs 5 trillion (lakh crore), the implied valuation works out to around 36x FY28E EPS under the base case and about 35x under the bull case, reflecting a rich multiple for a high-margin, high-ROE exchange franchise.In the second scenario of a higher market capitalisation of Rs 5.5 trillion, the implied multiples rise to nearly 40x and 38x FY28E EPS under the base and bull cases respectively, underscoring how sensitive the stock would be to growth delivery and regulatory outcomes.

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Centrum notes that revenue from operations grew at a strong 24% CAGR over FY21–FY26, with EBITDA and net profit rising at 23% CAGR and margins consistently above 70% and ROE above 30%, even after a softer FY26. “We expect earnings momentum to recover from FY27 onwards, with net profit projected to grow at ~16% CAGR over FY26–FY28E,” the report states, arguing that structural drivers remain intact despite cyclical and regulatory headwinds.
Under the first scenario, the market effectively validates NSE’s Rs 5 lakh crore valuation as a justified structural premium on India’s financialisation story and the exchange’s entrenched market leadership. NSE currently services over 129 million unique registered investors, enables trading across 3,228 securities and instruments, and, along with its clearing arm NCL, captures over 85% of corporate bond trading value settled via clearing corporations in India.
The DRHP-backed projections assume that revenue growth normalises after the FY26 blip, with operating revenue expected to rise from Rs 166 billion in FY26 to Rs 218 billion by FY28, while EBITDA recovers from Rs 133 billion to about Rs 192 billion and ROE moves back towards the high-30s. In this construct, the IPO price and subsequent listing sustain elevated multiples on the back of:
Robust transaction-led income, which contributed nearly 80% of operating revenue in FY21–FY26 and remains the primary earnings engine.

Continued cash-market deepening, with turnover having grown six-fold from Rs 50 trillion in FY16 to Rs 280 trillion in FY26, aided by rising investor penetration and higher market-cap-to-GDP ratios.

Also Read |
NSE IPO: Nithin Kamath explains why India has few businesses like this ‘cash generating machine’

Centrum highlights NSE’s innovation and infrastructure edge—pioneering fully automated trading (NEAT), leading on T+1 and T+0 settlements, and running an integrated risk architecture anchored by a Core Settlement Guarantee Fund of about Rs 130.8 billion—as critical to sustaining this premium franchise.

In such a benign scenario, any valuation at or above Rs 5 lakh crore is seen as a structural play, where investors effectively pay up for a compounding cash-generative asset tied to India’s rising household incomes, the shift from physical to financial assets, growing domestic institutional flows and steady FPI participation.

The second scenario the report flags is less benign: here, higher implied multiples at Rs 5–5.5 trillion market cap collide with regulatory tightening and volume moderation, forcing the market to reassess NSE’s valuation comfort zone. Nearly 80% of NSE’s revenues are linked to trading-related activities, with options alone contributing around 60% of operating revenue and futures another 9%, making the franchise acutely sensitive to derivatives volumes.

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A large part of this activity is driven by proprietary traders—who account for about 50.7% of equity options premium turnover—and by algorithmic trading, which contributes roughly 55% of cash market volumes and 66% of equity derivatives trades on NSE. “Any regulatory or tax changes that reduce the attractiveness of derivatives trading or constrain algorithmic and proprietary trading activity could adversely impact market volumes,” Centrum cautions, pointing to STT hikes and tighter RBI exposure norms as key near-term swing factors.

The report notes that the Union Budget FY27 has raised STT on equity futures sales from 0.02% to 0.05% of contract value, increased STT on options selling from 0.10% to 0.15% of premium value, and pushed STT on option exercise from 0.125% to 0.15% of intrinsic value, explicitly aimed at curbing excessive short-term speculation. In parallel, revised RBI norms effective July 1, 2026, are expected to increase capital consumption and funding costs for banks and intermediaries exposed to capital markets, potentially dampening leverage and consequently trading volumes, especially in derivatives.

Also Read | NSE IPO: 10 key things investors need to know about India’s largest IPO in history

Against this backdrop, Centrum builds in a slower 9–11% CAGR for equity options premium turnover between FY26 and FY30, even as other segments like currency and commodity options are projected to grow at 20–25% CAGR, and corporate bonds and exchange-traded currency/commodity futures at mid- to high-teens. If these regulatory headwinds weigh more heavily than anticipated on derivatives volumes, the market may struggle to sustain a Rs 5 lakh crore-plus valuation, especially given NSE’s concentrated revenue dependence on top trading members, where the top five and top ten clients contribute around 32% and 47% of revenue respectively.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Warriors, IREN set sponsorship deal record with annual $50 million pact: report

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Warriors, IREN set sponsorship deal record with annual $50 million pact: report

The Golden State Warriors will have a new company patch on their jerseys, and it will set a new precedent in the sponsorship deal space.

IREN, an Australian-founded vertically integrated AI cloud provider, will have its brand on the jerseys beginning with the 2026-27 season after a deal reportedly worth more than $50 million a year.

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The financial terms, first reported by Sportico, make it the largest sponsorship deal in North American sports.

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Draymond, Steph, Jimmy Butler

The Golden State Warriors will have an Iren patch on their jerseys beginning the 2026-27 season. (Iren / Fox News)

The deal is with the Golden State Group, the parent holding company that owns and operates the Warriors, the WNBA’s Golden State Valkyries, and the NBA G League’s Santa Cruz Warriors, among others.

“The Warriors jersey badge is our most visible global platform, and finding a partner that shares our vision for both innovation and community engagement was paramount,” Golden State Chief Commercial Officer Mike Kitts said in a press release. “IREN is committed to powering the future of technology, education and local impact, and aligns perfectly with our goals as we look to push the boundaries of innovation on a global scale and create a lasting legacy across the Bay Area and beyond.”

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“What makes Golden State special is the platform they’ve built: championship performance, a category-defining business and a deep commitment to community, all reinforcing each other over time,” said IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO Daniel Roberts. 

Golden State jersey

The deal is reportedly worth over $50 million annually, making it the largest sponsorship deal in North American sports. (Iren / Fox News)

“At IREN, we think about our business through a similar lens. We own and operate the full infrastructure stack: power, data centers and compute. That vertical integration allows us to serve the world’s most demanding AI workloads and invest in the communities that support us. This partnership brings together two organizations focused on execution, sharing a commitment to the people and the city building what comes next.”

In addition to the Warriors’ jersey badge, the partnership includes IREN’s designation as the Official AI Cloud Partner of Golden State, branding on warm-ups for the WNBA’s Valkyries and the Santa Cruz Warriors’ jerseys, prominent visibility throughout San Francisco’s Chase Center, and presenting sponsorship of the Warriors’ annual City Edition platform.

Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry smiles at the end of the third quarter of his NBA basketball game against San Antonio Spurs in San Francisco, Calif. Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021. (Stephen Lam/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images / Getty Images)

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IREN delivers GPU clusters for AI training and inference to customers in the Bay Area and around the world. It has secured more than five gigawatts of power around the world to support AI training and inference workloads and is focused on building the infrastructure that enables the next generation of technological advancement.

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Cybin: A Speculative Bet On Their Pivotal Depression Readout

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Cybin: A Speculative Bet On Their Pivotal Depression Readout

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Naomi Osaka Retires Injured From Bad Homburg Final, Handing Karolina Muchova the Title Days Before Wimbledon

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London not calling for Naomi Osaka

BAD HOMBURG, Germany — Naomi Osaka’s preparations for Wimbledon hit an unexpected snag Saturday when she retired at the start of the second set of the Bad Homburg final because of a foot injury, handing the title to Karolina Muchova just two days before the year’s third Grand Slam begins.

The fourth-seeded Japanese star, competing in the first grass-court final of her career, was trailing 6-1, 1-0 to Muchova of the Czech Republic when she pulled out of the match. Osaka had taken a medical timeout in the first set before ultimately deciding she could not continue.

A dominant start for Muchova

The match never got off to a competitive start for Osaka. Muchova broke serve in the opening game and followed it with an imperious hold to love, quickly building a commanding lead. The Czech player dominated from the opening game with aggressive, varied tennis, mixing in drop shots and frequent approaches to the net that neutralized Osaka’s game throughout the first set, which Muchova closed out 6-1.

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Concern over Osaka’s physical condition surfaced midway through that opening set, when she called for a medical timeout to have her right foot examined. According to a match tracker following the contest, Osaka had the medical timeout at 0-3 in the first set for the right foot issue before electing to continue play. She pushed through the remainder of the set and even briefly threatened on her own serve, but was unable to find any break points against Muchova, who closed out the set without facing one herself.

The injury proves too much to play through

Whatever progress Osaka made in fighting through the discomfort in the first set did not last into the second. After dropping the opening game of the second set to fall behind 1-0, Osaka signaled to the chair umpire that she could not continue, then walked to the net to shake hands with Muchova before doing the same with the umpire, officially ending the match in retirement.

The 28-year-old Osaka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, was filling out what had otherwise been one of the most encouraging weeks of grass-court tennis of her career heading into Saturday’s final, including reaching the first grass-court championship match of her career.

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Osaka addresses the crowd

Despite the disappointing finish, Osaka took the microphone during the trophy ceremony to thank the crowd that had supported her throughout the tournament. “I just want to say thank you to everyone who came to watch the match,” Osaka told the crowd. “I apologize for not being able to finish, but this atmosphere was incredible the whole week.”

A breakthrough title for Muchova

For Muchova, the win secured the third WTA singles title of her career and her second trophy of the 2026 season, following an earlier title run in Doha. The 29-year-old former world No. 1, who has battled significant injury setbacks at various points in her career, has now positioned herself as one of the form players heading into Wimbledon. She was a quarterfinalist at the All England Club in both 2019 and 2021, giving her a track record on grass that should serve her well as the tournament gets underway.

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Even with the abrupt ending, Muchova’s level throughout the week and particularly in Saturday’s final left a strong impression. Her performance in the opening set, in particular, was regarded as close to flawless, with her variety and net play giving Osaka few openings before the injury ultimately ended the contest.

What it means for Osaka’s Wimbledon run

The retirement adds a layer of uncertainty to Osaka’s outlook heading into the year’s third major. A four-time Grand Slam champion across the Australian Open and U.S. Open, Osaka has never advanced beyond the third round at Wimbledon in her career, making her recent run of form on grass — a surface that has historically given her trouble — all the more notable before Saturday’s injury scare.

Osaka is seeded No. 14 for the tournament and is scheduled to open her Wimbledon campaign against Elsa Jacquemot in the first round. Wimbledon begins Monday, leaving Osaka a short turnaround to assess the injury and determine whether she will be fit to compete.

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This is not the first time a similar injury situation has disrupted an Osaka final appearance just before a major tournament. In a similar instance last year, Osaka was forced to retire from the final of the ASB Classic, a tuneup event for the Australian Open, while up a set, due to a rib injury. In that instance, a full week between the warmup event and the start of the Australian Open allowed her to recover in time to compete, eventually advancing to the third round in Melbourne. Whether a similar recovery timeline will be possible this time, with only two days separating Saturday’s retirement from the start of Wimbledon, remains to be seen.

A tournament that still showcased Osaka’s progress

Even with the disappointing conclusion, Osaka’s run through the draw in Bad Homburg represented a meaningful step forward in her ongoing effort to find her footing on grass courts since returning to the tour in 2024 following an extended absence. Her victory over Wang Xinyu in the semifinals had already marked the first time she advanced to a grass-court final in her career, and her run through the tournament featured some of the most dominant serving performances of her comeback to date.

For now, attention shifts to whether Osaka’s right foot will allow her to take the court as scheduled against Jacquemot when Wimbledon begins Monday, with her promising form on grass this week offering reason for optimism even as the injury introduces fresh uncertainty into her plans at the All England Club.

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Mid-Year Update: Warnings On AI Hyperscalers, Private Credit, And The SpaceX IPO

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Mid-Year Update: Warnings On AI Hyperscalers, Private Credit, And The SpaceX IPO

This article was written by

I am a retired professor, a retired investment adviser, and currently a private investor and full-time tennis pro. I bought my first stock in a custodial account in 1958. I am a student of history, particularly military and economic/market history. The intellectual passions of my retirement years have been markets, mathematics, and quantum theory. Recently I have found myself reading book after book on the thoughts and feelings of animals, and I believe they are subtly influencing some of my views. I have a cat I like a lot. I like to travel. I served in Vietnam.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BAC. BRK.B, GOOG,PH either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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How The Mag 7 Became The Drag 7, And Might Drop The S&P 500 By 30% (Technical Analysis)

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How The Mag 7 Became The Drag 7, And Might Drop The S&P 500 By 30% (Technical Analysis)

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Albemarle: A Different Storage Boom

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Albemarle: Strategic Asset In Energy Security (Rating Upgrade)

Albemarle: A Different Storage Boom

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Stephen A. Smith Says Pat Riley Wouldn’t Say No to LeBron Returning to the Miami

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LeBron James

The Miami Heat made one of the offseason’s biggest splashes by trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo last week, and according to ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, the team may not be finished chasing star power just yet.

Appearing on “First Take,” Smith floated the idea of LeBron James returning to Miami as an unrestricted free agent this summer, suggesting Heat president Pat Riley would be receptive if the four-time champion ever picked up the phone. “If he called Pat Riley, and said ‘listen, I want to come back and join Giannis and Bam,’ you think Riley will tell him no? He ain’t gonna tell him no,” Smith said.

A roster already reshaped by the Giannis trade

Smith’s comments come on the heels of Miami’s blockbuster acquisition of Antetokounmpo, ending a year-long saga over the two-time MVP’s future in Milwaukee. The Heat now boast a frontcourt anchored by Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, his former Milwaukee teammate, along with forward Bobby Portis — but the roster remains thin beyond that trio as the front office looks to fill out the rest of the depth chart.

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James, 41, is set to become an unrestricted free agent once the negotiating period opens, having just completed the second year of his two-year, $101.36 million contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. He made history during the 2025-26 season by becoming the first NBA player to suit up for a 24th season, and he continued to produce at a high level even in a diminished role, averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game while shooting 51.5% from the field.

Growing buzz beyond just one analyst

Smith is far from the only voice connecting James to a possible Miami reunion. Mario Chalmers, a two-time champion alongside James during his first stint with the Heat, addressed the speculation directly during an appearance on WQAM radio, where he was asked what move team president Pat Riley might pursue next. “I can see him [LeBron James] coming back,” Chalmers said. “It’ll definitely be a good opportunity because of Giannis and Bam.”

Chalmers went further, suggesting the move could also benefit James’ son, Bronny, who currently plays for the Lakers. “You could actually get Bronny some real minutes at PG and keep developing him and let him learn from other guys, so I think it’s a great move,” Chalmers said.

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ESPN NBA insider Brian Windhorst also stoked the conversation, telling “The Press Box” podcast that James holds the Heat organization and Riley in high regard, adding that he believes James “might feel somewhat the same” about a potential reunion as Riley reportedly does about welcoming him back.

The financial reality facing Miami

Despite the growing chatter, the practical obstacles to a James-Heat reunion remain significant. Miami is hard-capped at the first apron limit of approximately $209 million following the Antetokounmpo trade. With Antetokounmpo’s deal carrying a cap hit of roughly $58.4 million, the Heat have just $18.1 million in space remaining to fill four open roster spots — a figure that falls well short of what James currently earns.

According to Miami Herald columnist Barry Jackson, the Heat’s best avenue to even attempt a pursuit would be the full mid-level exception. “The Heat could try to lure impending free agent LeBron James with its full midlevel exception, but a James return is considered a long shot — though nothing can be ruled out,” Jackson wrote. Any such offer would represent a dramatic pay cut from the roughly $50 million annual salary James commanded on his most recent Lakers contract.

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A history that makes the fit resonate

If James were to entertain a move, the basketball logic behind pairing him with Antetokounmpo and Adebayo carries real appeal. James spent four seasons with the Heat from 2010 to 2014, forming a “Big Three” with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh that won back-to-back championships and reached the NBA Finals in all four of his seasons in Miami. A similar arrangement now, with Giannis serving as the primary paint presence and transition threat, Adebayo anchoring the defense as a secondary scorer and playmaker, and James operating as a facilitator picking his spots offensively, would give head coach Erik Spoelstra a frontcourt trio capable of switching matchups and initiating offense from multiple positions.

Riley’s own past comments add fuel to the speculation

Riley himself has previously left the door open to a reunion, even before this latest wave of speculation. According to commentary circulating widely on social media this week, Riley once said of James, “I wish him nothing but the best, and if he ever wanted to come back, then I’ll put a new shiny key under that mat” — a remark that has resurfaced repeatedly as fans and analysts speculate about a possible homecoming.

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Where things stand with the Lakers

Complicating matters further, James’ standing with his current team has reportedly grown uncertain. According to reporting connected to Klutch Sports, James’ representation, there is growing belief around the league that he could ultimately leave the Lakers rather than re-sign, even as Los Angeles remains technically capable of offering him a deal worth up to three years and $182 million. One Heat-focused outlet reported this week that Los Angeles made an early check-in call to James in free agency but had not followed up with a formal offer, a detail that has only added to speculation about where he might land.

A long shot, but not dismissed outright

For now, most reporting on the situation continues to characterize a Heat reunion as unlikely given the financial mismatch between James’ market value and Miami’s limited cap flexibility. Still, with James’ future in Los Angeles less certain than expected at this stage of the offseason, and with insiders, former teammates and media personalities alike continuing to raise the possibility, the idea of James completing his career back where he won two of his four championships has taken on more life than many around the league initially anticipated. Whether it ultimately materializes will likely become clearer once free agency negotiations formally begin and James makes a decision about both his next team and whether he intends to play a 25th NBA season at all.

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Qualcomm: M&A Driven Growth Strategy Pays Off – Dip Buying Opportunity Ahead

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Deutsche Bank cuts Synaptics stock rating on ON acquisition deal

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Venezuela welcomes 1,600 foreign rescuers in urgent search for quake survivors

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Venezuela welcomes 1,600 foreign rescuers in urgent search for quake survivors


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