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Oil Futures Settle Lower Awaiting U.S.-Iran Moves

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Oil Futures Settle Lower Awaiting U.S.-Iran Moves

1502 ET – Crude futures settle lower as the market looks to Thursday’s talks between the U.S. and Iran. Estimates of the risk premium baked into the price go anywhere from $4 to $10 a barrel, Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. “I would argue that it’s fairly subdued,” with President Trump’s record of trying to do the least damage to oil facilities and the market, he says, citing last year’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and this year’s ouster of Venezuela’s leader. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could create “real supply headaches,” but “there’s still talks in Geneva and while it’s unlikely that the tensions will go away any sign of a peace deal could see an evaporation of $7 to $10 in oil very quickly.” WTI and Brent fall 1% to $65.63 and $70.77 a barrel, respectively.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil Retreats With U.S.-Iran Tensions As Key Driver

1555 GMT – Oil prices retreat as traders assess risks to supply in the Middle East ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. In afternoon trading, Brent crude slips 0.4% to $70.85 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.5% to $65.50 a barrel after rising earlier in the session. “Most of the recent price increase is due to a widening risk premium,” analysts at Commerzbank say. “The price is thus well above the fair price of oil, which could be explained by fundamental factors alone.” On Friday, a barrel deliverable in one month cost $3.50 more than oil scheduled for delivery in seven months. Compared with 12-month delivery, the premium widened to more than $5. “The last time the time spreads were higher was in June 2025, when the 12-day war between Israel and Iran took place,” the analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner’s mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don’t write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2020 to 2022, I worked in a sales role at a law firm. As the top-grossing salesman, I eventually managed a team and contributed to our sales strategy. I spent much of my free time reading books and annual reports, steadily building my vault of knowledge about public companies. This period has since been useful in helping me assess a company’s prospects by its sales strategy. I particularly get excited when the product seems to sell itself.From 2022 to 2023, I worked as an investment advisory rep with Fidelity, primarily with 401K planning. My personal study before that allowed me to pass my Series exams two weeks ahead of schedule, and I once again found myself excelling at the job. I learned a few useful things from this more formal setting, but my main frustration was that I was still a value investor, and Fidelity’s 401K planning was based on modern portfolio theory. Lacking a way to change positions internally, I chose to walk away after a year.I gave writing for Seeking Alpha a try in November of 2023, and I’ve been here since. As I spent those years saving aggressively and building up my base of capital, I also actively invest now. My articles are how I share the opportunities that I seek for myself, and my readers are effectively walking this road alongside me.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DFDV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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