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This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AGRO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

ASEAN’s digital economy, driven by its young population, is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. While governments are implementing policies, socio-economic disparities and varied regulations present challenges. The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (ADEFA) aims to harmonize digitalization across member states, addressing issues like digital trade, cybersecurity, and data flows.

This landmark agreement, the first of its kind regionally, seeks to build trust, foster inclusivity, and empower businesses, ultimately enhancing ASEAN’s global competitiveness and creating opportunities for all citizens. Early collaborations on digital payments signal positive progress.

Digitalization across Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) member states serves its younger demographic and comprises an economy worth $1 trillion by 2030.

While policies can help digital transformation thrive, socio-economic differences across the region, as well as development and regulatory regimes, pose challenges.

The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement offers a blueprint for achieving harmonization among nations at different stages of digital integration.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) outlook is of oneness – one vision, one identity and one community. But it is a vision that the turbulence caused by the fourth industrial revolution, rapid digital transformation and challenging geopolitics and economics is shaking.

Engendering greater trust among ASEAN member states in its policy tools and vision is paramount to its progress and aspiration of developing a community of opportunities for all. One such huge opportunity is its digital economy, estimated to grow from approximately $300 billion to almost $1 trillion by 2030.

ASEAN is one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, with average real gross domestic product growth forecast to reach 4.6% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024. By 2030, it is expected to be the fourth-largest economy in the world. This dynamism is driven by a population of 700 million, composed of young, educated, increasingly online individuals and a growing middle class.

For many people in the region, especially its youth, integrating digital technologies into their everyday lives has changed how they consume information, buy goods and services, use financial services and interact with government. Positively, governments region-wide have recognized the importance of harnessing the ongoing digital transformation for good and deployed policies to foster a thriving regional digital economy.

Standing as a challenge to this are the region’s socio-economic differences, levels of development and disparate regulatory regimes.

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Thai inflation eased to 2.4% yoy in June, within BoT’s target range. Core inflation rose to 1.2%. Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay expects BoT to hold rates at 1% through August’s meeting and possibly year-end, supporting steady USD/THB near range highs.

Key Points

• USD/THB Trend: Edged higher on easing Thai inflation data, supporting expectations of a steady BoT policy stance.

• Inflation Data: June inflation eased to 2.4% yoy from 2.8% in May; core inflation rose slightly to 1.2% yoy; energy and non-food prices moderated.

• Policy Outlook: Data reinforces case for BoT to hold rates at 1% through August meeting and possibly year-end, barring energy or food price shocks.

Inflation Trends Support Stable Currency Outlook

Thailand’s headline inflation eased for a second straight month in June, falling to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.8% in May, coming in below the Bloomberg consensus of 2.7%. This keeps inflation comfortably within the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) target range of 1-3%, with a year-to-date average of just 1.1%. According to Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, this moderation follows a steady pickup since April, after negative readings persisted from April 2025 through March 2026. Food prices remained stable at 1% yoy, while non-food prices slowed to 3.3% from 4%, largely due to decelerating energy costs, which dropped to 13.7% yoy from 18.1% previously.

Core Inflation and Policy Forecasts Remain Contained

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, ticked up slightly to 1.2% yoy, surpassing the 1.1% consensus estimate but still modest. The Ministry of Commerce has maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.5-2.5%, citing supportive factors such as lower electricity tariffs and ample meat supplies that should help offset price pressures. Inflation is expected to remain above 2% for much of the second half of the year, partly due to a favorable base effect from last year’s weaker figures. However, easing energy costs are projected to further moderate overall price growth, reinforcing a relatively stable macroeconomic backdrop for Thailand heading into the latter half of 2026.

BoT Likely to Maintain Rates Amid Manageable Risks

Given these trends, Commerzbank expects the BoT to hold its policy rate at 1% during its upcoming meeting on 26 August, with the possibility of maintaining this stance through year-end. The central bank appears to view current inflation dynamics as manageable and supportive of broader economic activity, rather than warranting tightening. Nonetheless, risks remain, particularly from a potential rebound in global energy prices or unexpected food price increases linked to El Niño weather patterns. These factors could pressure inflation upward, though policymakers currently see limited urgency to adjust rates. As a result, USD/THB is expected to stay within recent trading ranges, with the currency pair currently hovering near its range highs as markets price in continued policy stability from the BoT.

Source : Thai Baht: Range-bound after inflation data against dollar – Commerzbank

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Britain’s workforce could shrink by two million people if governments keep leaning on stealth taxes, the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned, in analysis that lands squarely on the desk of prime minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham and should alarm every employer in the country.

The fiscal watchdog’s latest long-term sustainability report concludes that repeated tax rises under both Conservative and Labour governments are inflicting growing damage on the economy, with each fresh raid delivering diminishing returns. It also cautioned that stealth tax raids would become harder to sustain as AI threatens to eliminate one in ten jobs.

For small business owners already wrestling with recruitment, the central finding is stark. If future governments permanently uprated income tax thresholds in line with prices rather than earnings, two-thirds of all workers, more than 20 million people, would become higher-rate taxpayers within a few decades. That is every full-time worker, even those on the minimum wage

Under that scenario, the OBR estimates “labour supply could fall by around two million” workers by 2075. For those people, work would simply no longer pay. For the firms hoping to hire them, the labour pool gets shallower still.

The mechanism is one SME employers know well. Rishi Sunak froze income tax thresholds in cash terms until 2028 and Rachel Reeves extended the policy into the next decade. OBR data show the freeze is already set to pull five million more people into the higher and additional rate bands, and fiscal drag is already pushing millions of Britons into higher tax brackets, among them nurses, teachers and supermarket managers. For business owners, that means staff demanding higher gross pay just to stand still, at a time when payroll costs are climbing anyway.

David Miles, an executive member of the OBR, said stealth raids might look politically easier than raising headline rates, but the cost is real. “It would be painful, because … if you carry on doing that decade after decade, it isn’t too far down the road until the great majority of people are higher rate taxpayers,” he said. That would affect people’s “willingness to work, willingness to stay in the UK [and] to save, to pay taxes if income tax rates rose by that amount. So it’s not a painless road to go down”.

The backdrop is grim. National debt is close to £3tn, around 95 per cent of GDP, and the watchdog has previously warned that debt could hit almost 300 per cent of GDP within 50 years. The OBR says Burnham, or any future prime minister, could face tax rises or spending cuts worth as much as £120bn to stabilise debt at current levels. Business Matters reported last year that the watchdog was already warning of significant tax rises ahead; this report suggests the well is running dry.

The tax burden is on course to reach a peacetime high of 38.5 per cent of GDP by the start of the next decade, and Miles warned Britain was “catching up” with higher-tax continental Europe. Of relying on further rises, including proposals from Burnham allies for wealth taxes, he said: “It’s not that the pain just increases a little bit, it starts increasing exponentially.”

That leaves spending. Many point to the pension triple lock, which the OBR says is making “a very significant contribution” to upward pressure on spending. Linking it to inflation alone would save £160bn a year in today’s money by 2075. Lord O’Neill of Gatley, tipped as Burnham’s key economic adviser, has called the lock “bonkers”. Burnham has committed to keeping it.

Jeremy Hunt, the former chancellor, put it bluntly: “The OBR makes it clear that unless we tackle the triple lock we will end up with totally unsustainable levels of both tax and debt.”

For the SMEs that employ most of Britain’s private sector workforce, the message is uncomfortable. Whoever occupies Number 10, the era of quiet tax rises doing the heavy lifting is ending, and the bill is heading somewhere.

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.